TSR's 2022 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Women): #8 Stanford Cardinal

There might not be a team more challenging to gauge and rank than the Stanford women.

Coming into the winter cross country season, the Cardinal were the top-ranked team in The Stride Report's preseason / summer rankings. And after a few up-and-down performances, they ultimately finished 3rd at the winter cross country national meet.

Expectations were once again high for the Stanford women going into last fall. However, the team's wild fluctuation their September and October left us completely blown away by how they finished the season in November.

Now, as we enter the fall of 2022, we have more questions than ever about a team that doesn't seem to have a true identity. And yet, they have just as much young talent compared to any other team in the country.

* * *

Going into last fall, Stanford was heavily favored to be a podium team once more. That, however, didn't even seem remotely realistic when looking at their regular season results.

The Cardinal began their fall campaign at the FSU XC Open, a small but top-heavy meet which featured strong teams like BYU, Florida State, Furman and Southern Utah. And while those programs were all expected to be competitive, many distance fans around the country expected the Stanford women to play a significant role in this field.

That, however, didn't happen.

Lucy Jenks was the team's top-scorer in 27th place while Rebecca Story (38th), Christina Aragon (42nd), Lily Flynn (46th) and Tori Starcher (57th) closed out the scoring.

In the end, the women from Palo Alto severely underwhelmed. The team finished 5th overall behind the four teams mentioned above and they were only one point ahead of a respectable Division Two program in Lee (Tenn.).

That 5th place result wasn't great for Stanford, but it would be a mistake to suggest that this team was running at full strength. Top low-stick Julia Heymach, former All-American Jessica Lawson and former freshman superstar Zofia Dudek were all absent from the results.

And those weren't the only women who didn't race.

So when you really stepped back and looked at the overall picture of this team, it felt fair to suggest that their season opener wasn't anything close to their full potential.

Sure enough, we would see a slightly different lineup at the loaded Nuttycombe Invite, the biggest and most competitive regular season meet of the year.

However, despite the lineup alterations, the Stanford women still underwhelmed.

Second-year freshman Zofia Dudek held her own with a promising 38th place finish, but Lucy Jenks would be the only other top-100 finisher, placing 81st overall. Grace Connolly, Flynn and Aragon would close out the scoring with finishes of 107-125-127, respectively.

While there were some promising results from Dudek and Jenks, the overall scoring potency that we expected to see from this team simply wasn't there and their depth was clearly limited.

But once again, we didn't see Heymach or Lawson toe the line, the two women who had previously carried this team in their upfront scoring. So while Stanford's 16th place team finish left us wanting more, it was clear that they were not at full strength.

Luckily, as the Cardinal moved into the postseason, their full lineup began to take form, although the PAC-12 XC Championships didn't necessarily reflect much of an improvement.

Dudek threw down an excellent 10th place finish at her conference meet, giving the Stanford women one of their first true low-stick performances of the season. However, the gaps after Dudek began to inflate the team score.

Heymach finally returned to the grass and was flanked by Aragon. That duo finished 25th and 26th overall, a fine pair of results, but nothing out of this world. And while the Cardinal's final two scorers finished 32nd and 33rd overall, there simply wasn't enough scoring potency to contend with the top teams in this field.

Stanford would ultimately walk away from their conference meet with a 5th place finish, scoring 120 points, just 13 points back from the 4th place Washington Huskies. And based on that result, the team's preseason prospects of matching podium expectations were beginning to dwindle at a rapid pace.

But then, out of nowhere, something changed.

At the West Regional XC Championships, the Stanford women stunned the country, securing the regional title by tallying 42 points, exactly half the number of points that the runner-up Washington women posted. The Cardinal put four women in the top-10 and their fifth scorer placed 17th overall.

And while The Stride Report doesn't put too much stock into the regional meets, this performance was undeniably different than what we had seen from this team throughout the entirety of their 2021 fall season.

But how would the Stanford women translate that result to Tallahassee? Could they replicate that performance on a national stage where the focus was to place highly and not just qualify?

The answer to that last question was an overwhelming, "YES".

In a complete 180 from their regular season results, the Stanford women thrived on the national stage, peaking better than nearly any other team in the country.

Heymach secured a huge 13th place All-American finish while Lucy Jenks had the best race of her career, placing 49th overall. With Aragon and Dudek placing 57th and 63rd overall, the top-four women in Stanford's lineup looked like a completely different (and much better) team.

Stanford's fifth scorer, freshman Audrey Suarez, did fall back a bit, but her 103rd place finish was still 1) a very strong performance for any fifth scorer at the national meet, and 2) an outstanding result for a true freshman.

When the dust settled and the results were tallied, the Cardinal women had stunned the country with a 7th place team finish. And while that wasn't quite the podium result that everyone was expecting from this team earlier in the summer, it was hard to be disappointed for how well the Stanford women rallied when it matter the most.

* * *

I'll admit, I don't know if I've ever seen a team make an in-season adjustment that was as effective as what the Stanford women did last year.

Now, admittedly, returning your best scorer to your top-five does help, but Heymach alone wasn't going to completely alter the trajectory of this team -- and the rest of the team seemingly understood that.

This team peaked for the postseason unbelievably well and everyone stepped up when it mattered the most.

So what does all of that mean for this team in 2022? How much better or worse will they be given who they return and lose? Which version of this team will we see throughout the upcoming fall months? Do the Stanford women even know the answers to these questions?

Let's get the tough news out of the way first.

Heymach is gone.

And so is Aragon.

Those losses, on paper, are major concerns.

Heymach didn't race last fall until the postseason, but her impact at the regional and national meets gave her team a supercharged scoring spark. An individual regional title and a 13th place All-American finish aren't just results that you can quickly find replacements for.

It's a similar story for Aragon. She was a fine scorer throughout the regular season, but her scoring potency could have been easily replicated this fall if her ceiling peaked at the PAC-12 XC Championships last fall.

Of course, she then finished 57th at the NCAA XC Championships, a result that completely changed the scoring structure of this team for the better. And while it was not an All-American result like Heymach's, trying to find another top-60 scorer is going to be far from easy for Stanford in 2022.

But despite those losses, the future has never been brighter for an extremely young team that has unlimited upside going into the next few years of competition.

* * *

Let's start with the main returners from last year's squad: Zofia Dudek and Lucy Jenks.

Throughout last fall, Dudek was very strong, offering high-impact scoring even when this team was struggling. On paper, her 38th place finish at Nuttycombe, 10th place finish at the PAC-12 XC Championships and 63rd place finish at the national meet are all results which suggest that she can be an All-American in 2022.

In fact, we even have Dudek ranked at TSR #47 this summer.

But here's the catch: Dudek has proven that she can be even better than that.

Much better.

During the winter cross country season, Dudek wasn't just a freshman superstar, she was a national-caliber superstar, regardless of her age.

As a rookie, the rising Stanford ace finished 3rd at the FSU Winter XC Classic, 2nd at the Battle Born XC Challenge and 3rd at the PAC-12 XC Championships. Those were incredible results that made Dudek a clear top-10 name in the nation.

Unfortunately, Dudek sustained an injury at the winter cross country national meet and faltered to 156th place overall. She wouldn't race again until last fall. In fact, she hasn't raced at all on the track during her two years with the Cardinal.

We don't know what Dudek's status was in terms of health last fall, but we do know that she's capable of being so much better. How much better? We're talking so much better that she could eventually be at the same level as Julia Heymach was last fall.

Her winter cross country results were just that good.

Of course, there's no guarantee that Dudek will replicate her freshman year results later this season...but the possibility is still very much there.

Lucy Jenks, meanwhile, didn't necessarily have the best regular season during the 2021 fall cross country season. Her 81st place finish at Nuttycombe was respectable, but she finished outside of the top-25 at the FSU XC Open and she was outside of the top-50 at the PAC-12 XC Championships.

But then she switched gears for her most important races of the season. Jenks placed 9th in the West region and then 49th at the national meet, nine spots out from All-American honors.

The understandable critique against Jenks is that she never had a regular season (or conference meet) result that was nearly as good as her regional or national meet performances from last year.

Usually, that would concern us. However, Jenks would go on to validate her talent in a massive way during the indoor and outdoor track seasons.

The still-young Stanford star ran 9:04 for 3000 meters during the winter months, ran 15:45 for 5000 meters in the spring and eventually qualified for the outdoor national meet in that latter event.

There is no doubt in our minds that Jenks can be an All-American this fall. And although she is "only" ranked at TSR #50 in our preseason rankings, her track results suggest that our summer ranking is closer to her floor than her ceiling.

Through two runners, Stanford looks dangerous. If this duo can replicate their best results on a more consistent basis, then the Cardinal women are well on their way to being a top-10 team in the NCAA this fall.

Of course, as we all know, it takes five runners to field an actual team.

* * *

The rest of this roster is VERY young. The last few recruiting classes that we have seen venture to Palo Alto have been flat-out incredible. And in a few instances, many of these youngsters have already made noticeable impacts.

Audrey Saurez, for example, had a slow start to her 2021 freshman cross country season. However, she was 17th at her regional meet and then 103rd at the national meet.

For a true rookie, those were really encouraging results!

Suarez would go on to post times of 4:44 (mile) and 16:13 (5k) during the winter and spring seasons, respectable marks which might signal that even greater things are coming in 2022.

Was Suarez a superstar low-stick last fall? Maybe not, but her progression and ongoing development is extremely encouraging. She doesn't need to be a megastar in 2022, but if her first-year results are any indication about her future, then she's going to be a really promising middle lineup scorer this fall.

Now, we'll admit, the rest of this lineup is where things get tricky.

Women like Grace Connolly and Audrey Dadamio were varsity contributors in 2021 and have proven that they can offer greater value either this season or in the future. Dadamio was a high school star and hasn't raced since last fall, but Connolly has run times of 9:29 (3k), 16:11 (5k) and 34:09 (10k).

There's a very good chance that one of these two women is on the verge of a breakout season. But even if they're not, they could still be respectable backend options for Stanford in the coming months.

Be sure to also keep an eye out for women like Imogen Gardiner, Abi Archer and Melissa Tanaka. They've shown that they could have some kind of impact on this team if their past performances translate to the grass.

However, where things begin to get really interesting is with Stanford's incoming freshmen, a distance-centric group that may rival, or even topple, NC State's distance running recruiting class from 2020 (which included Starliper and Tuohy).

800 meter megastar Roisin Willis is beyond incredible, but as far as cross country is concerned, we'll be focusing on a few other women in this class. Juliette Whittaker, while also a superstar half-miler, has also been very good on the grass.

Between Whittaker (MD), Julia Flynn (MI), Ava Parekh (IL), Riley Stewart (CO), Caroline Wells (FL) and Nicola Hogg (AUS), trying to detail all of these women's high school accomplishments would be a never-ending task. Instead, here are some group stats.

Of these six recruits, five of them own a 3200 meter PR (or 3k equivalent) that sits under 10:15.

Of these six recruits, five of them own a 5000 meter PR, either on the track or the grass, of 16:58 or faster. Of those women, two of them (Stewart and Wells) own a 5k PR under 16:30.

Nicola Hogg, according to World Athletics, has never contested a 5000 meter race.

Of the five American recruits, all of them have toed the line for a high school cross country national meet and three of them have earned top-10 finishes, some of them multiple times.

To put it simply, this freshman class is STACKED. Honestly, it would be a surprise if one of these women wasn't a top-50 runner at the end of this fall. In fact, we're expecting two women to be top-five scorers for this team come November!

Do we know who the best candidates are to assume those roles? Not really, but if we had to guess, Stewart is at the top of our list in terms of names to watch.

* * *

There is simply way too much talent and potential firepower on this roster for the Stanford women to not be a top-10 team in the country. While last fall certainly sparked a handful of legitimate concerns, we saw how well some of these women ran when it mattered the most.

Not running well during the regular season, having no guarantee that certain returners will replicate their best results more consistently and not knowing which freshmen will have an impact could understandably push the Cardinal out of some people's top-10.

But it's hard to envision the Stanford women not being a top-10 team. If last year's group still salvaged a 7th place finish at the national meet despite their regular season results, then how unrealistic is a TSR #8 ranking in 2022? Especially when we can convince ourselves that the scoring of Heymach and Aragon can be reproduced later this fall?

The women from Palo Alto aren't a perfect team, and this ranking may be closer to their upside than their downside. Even so, history suggests that any spot lower than this would be a mistake.

And for the most part, we don't like to argue against history.