TSR's 2022 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Women): #25 Toledo Rockets

This probably wasn't the team that you were expecting to see at TSR #25, huh?

The Toledo women quietly put together a very promising 2021 fall campaign, leaving us extremely encouraged about what their future holds.

While they are far from perfect, Coach Andrea Grove-McDonough has changed this program in the same way that coaches like Rita Gary and Sarah Haveman have changed their respective women's teams -- all for the better.

With six of their top-seven women returning and an elite-level recruiting class on the way, the Rockets have a very real chance of making it to the national meet this fall and excelling past the expectations of most.

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The Toledo women started their 2021 cross country season at the MSU Spartan Invitational. There, they lost only to Michigan State and Grand Valley State, the latter of which went on to finish runner-up at the NCAA D2 XC Championships.

However, the Rockets were only three points away from the Lakers in that race. They had both Joy Chirchir and Faith Linga earn top-three finishes while two other women were in the top-20 team scoring spots. Their fifth runner, however, was about 16 spots back.

For the most part, that was a solid performance, but those finishes were far from anything that made them nationally competitive in our eyes.

And then they went to Joe Piane.

While the five-mile race hosted by Notre Dame is one of the more nationally competitive meets in the country, it also doesn't have that the same depth that a meet like Nuttycombe does.

And yet, it's hard to argue against a strong 9th place team finish.

Furman, Butler, Illinois, Weber State and Notre Dame all fell to the Rockets in what was a pleasantly surprising display of improved fitness.

In that race, Chirchir proved to be a true national-caliber front-runner, securing a crucial 7th place individual finish. And yes, it's true, there was a fairly notable drop-off from that point, but Faith Linga, Lou Trois and Semra Karaslan kept the team scoring relatively stable with 50th, 56th and 71st place finishes, respectively.

However, their final scorer continued to be a (somewhat minor) challenge for the Toledo women, finishing 121st overall.

Even so, Toledo had a lot to be happy about. They had a true low-stick and a fairly reliable middle portion of their lineup. On paper, those are the two most important aspects of any nationally competitive group.

But one could argue that Toledo's performance at Pre-Nationals was even better.

In one of the most competitive fields in the country, Toledo finished 11th overall, validating their breakout race at Joe Piane and proving to their fellow competitors that they deserve respect as a legitimate distance running power.

In that race, Chirchir finished 20th overall while Linga secured a promising 32nd place finish. Together, that was an excellent 1-2 punch which truly gave Toledo an edge. And with Karaslan finishing 47th, the Rockets seemed to have one of the better scoring trios in the meet, even better than a few teams that finished ahead of them.

However, with no other women finishing inside the top-110 individual spots, the Toledo women succumbed to their backend vulnerability. As a result, their score was inflated by an additional 236 team points.

Fast forward to the postseason and the Rockets would cruise to a conference title at the Mid-American XC Championships. Scoring 32 points was respectable, and Chirchir was impressive, but everything that we had known about the team previously was largely the same.

Going into the Great Lakes Regional XC Championships, Toledo had an outside (but realistic) shot of making it to the national meet.

Certain things had to go right, maybe there could have been a "push" scenario in the Kolas calculations, but the Rockets ultimately concluded their season with a 7th place finish. They were just nine points away from an Ohio State team that also did not advance to the NCAA XC Championships.

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As we evaluate this team in 2022, it's hard not to like what they bring to the table. They have a lineup structure that is conducive to success, more returners than most teams and enough promising results from last fall to suggest that they'll be even better in just a few months time.

When looking at this lineup, both TFRRS and Toledo's 2022 cross country roster suggest that only Semra Karaslan is gone from last year's team. And admittedly, that's a tough loss.

While Karaslan didn't necessarily offer the same scoring potency as Chirchir or the occasional scoring prowess of Linga, she was still a stable middle-lineup scorer who was fairly reliable throughout last fall. She was 47th at Pre-Nationals, 2nd at the MAC XC Championships and 28th at the Great Lakes Regional XC Championships.

Replacing the value that Karaslan brought to Toledo last fall will be extremely important, especially for a team that didn't have a complete top-five last fall. However, the Rockets are one of the few teams who could fill her absence without much of a problem...and then some.

Chirchir will be able to compete as a true low-stick, although she'll need to be better at the regional meet later this year.

Linga has proven that she can be just as good as Chirchir depending on the race, but her consistency wasn't great at larger invitationals last fall.

Veteran Lou Trois was an under-the-radar scorer for Toledo in 2021, but she'll need to make key improvements if this team is going to make any national-caliber noise in 2022.

But that's only three women.

Where will the rest of their scoring come from? What will their depth look like? How is this team going to dramatically improve? Well, the answers to those questions won't necessarily be found by looking at last year's roster.

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This year, the Toledo women are adding one of the most impressive distance-centric recruiting classes in the country, as well as a respectable D2 transfer.

And when I say "in the country", I truly mean that there are (probably) not 10 other distance running recruiting classes better than theirs. In fact, if I'm hopping on this Toledo hype train, then this incoming rookie group might even be top-five in the nation.

The Rockets are adding an overwhelmingly strong recruiting class to their roster this fall which features names like Lianna Surtz (IL), Karina James (IN), Jaydon Cirincione (IN), Bailey Ranta (IN), Ella Kurto (NY), McKinley Fielding (NY), Aubrey Duhaime (OH), Michaela McGill (OH), Margrett Watt (CAN), Cadence Christie (CAN) and Marina Gross (CAN).

Trying to go through the accolades of each of those young women would be an exhaustive exercise, but let's put things in perspective with some group stats.

Of Toledo's eight American recruits, seven of them have run under 18 minutes for 5000 meters (on the grass) and five of them have run under the five-minute barrier in the mile.

That's recruiting depth that even the best D1 distance programs can't always boast.

Certain recruits like Ella Kurto are exceptionally talented. The New York native, for instance, ran 9:34 for 3000 meters in high school and was the 14th place finisher at the 2019 NXN Championships.

But the Canadian additions are just as good as the Americans, even if there aren't as many of them. That's because Watt, Christie and Gross have numerous results that make them some of the better distance runners of this class.

Gross, admittedly, doesn't have a ton of results that we can find. However, on Instagram, Coach Andrea Grove-McDonough noted that Gross has run 9:36 for 3000 meters which, by all standards, would make her an elite recruit in the American high school circuit.

Gross is also a, "Two-time provincial XC champion, four-time track provincial champion, and the Provincial Record holder in the indoor 3k for U18 women," according to Toledo's roster.

So in our minds, that sounds pretty darn good.

It's a similar story for Cadence Christie. We don't have any times for her, but being a, "Two-time XC provincial varsity champion, three-time track provincial varsity champion, and [finishing third at] the U20 5000m Canadian Track & Field Championships," according to Toledo's roster, seems just as impressive.

Then there is Watt who actually joined the Rockets this past winter. She is someone who has quietly posted some respectable marks. She has run 2:08 for 800 meters, 4:34 for 1500 meters and 6:53 in the 2k steeple, per Athletics Canada.

Admittedly, her longer distance marks aren't quite as sharp as few other recruits, but running as well as she has in the 1500 meters could translate to something promising on the grass.

Oh, and let's not forget about Walsh transfer Alex Bauer, a young runner who has national meet experience at the D2 level and who has run 4:53 in the mile.

* * *

To put it simply, the Toledo women are not going to be lacking lineup options this fall. In fact, they probably have more flexibility than some of the more established Division One stalwarts. To think that one of those star rookies (or their transfer) wouldn't help the Rockets in any meaningful way this fall seems ludicrous.

In fact, we haven't even mentioned the potential development of their returning backend scorers like the Vining sisters or Claire Steigerwald. What happens if one of those women makes a jump? Could they replace the scoring value that Karaslan leaves behind?

It certainly seems possible...

And yet, despite the mountain of optimism and upside, there is still plenty of uncertainty surrounding this team going into 2022.

There is no guarantee that this rookie group is going to have a major scoring impact. There is no guarantee that Chirchir and Linga will be more consistent on certain stages. There is no guarantee that the backend scorers will be able to fill the vacant Karaslan-shaped hole in their lineup.

And generally speaking, Toledo just needs to be flat-out better this year.

Even so, last year's Toledo team was good. Maybe not unbelievably good, but still good.

And as we look ahead to 2022, suggesting that the Toledo women won't be better than they were last year just seems hard to fathom right now.

Buckle up, this may only be the beginning of the new Andrea Grove-McDonough era in Toledo, Ohio.