TSR's 2022 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Women): #11 Michigan Wolverines

Ah yes, the Michigan women. A team that, on paper, has way too much talent to not be ranked in our top-15. In fact, one could argue that they're even worthy of a top-10 ranking this summer.

But for as good as we think the Wolverines can be this fall, a lot of this team's success will likely rely on their potential and results that extend outside of the 2021 cross country season.

And that, of course, makes the women from Ann Arbor a tricky team to rank this summer.

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Expectations for the Michigan women were very high last year. Despite a modest 17th place finish at the NCAA Winter XC Championships earlier that March, the Wolverines seemed primed to be far better in the fall of 2021.

Michigan's first test of the season came at the Harry Grove Spiked Shoe Invite, a meet that featured some top-ranked teams such as Georgetown, Syracuse and Minnesota. All three of those programs would go on to qualify for the national meet and have varied success.

In that race, Michigan's Ericka VanderLende, Kayla Windemuller and Katelynne Hart put together a fantastic trio of finishes, going 5-6-8 in the overall results. No other team had three women across the finish line before Michigan did and no other team scored as well as Michigan did through those first three women.

But from there, the scoring gaps in the Wolverines' lineup began to expand.

The BIG 10 program had Anne Forsyth finish 16th overall while Samantha Saenz finished 19th. In the grand scheme of things, those were two decent results, but the other teams in this field were simply more complete and noticeably deeper through five runners.

As a result, Michigan settled for 3rd place overall. Even so, there were plenty of silver-linings.

After placing 46th at the 2018 NCAA XC Championships, Forsyth hadn't toed the line for a cross country since then. And while a 16th place finish in an early-season meet wasn't jaw-dropping, it was still encouraging to see her racing once again.

Having Kayla Windemuller finish 6th overall was also an excellent result. While the Michigan standout had shown promise in previous seasons, seeing her translate that progression to the grass while emerging as a potential front-runner was exciting.

And when you look at the overall team results, it's not like Michigan got blown out.

Georgetown, the overall winners at Harry Grove, scored 48 points while Minnesota finished runner-up with 51 points. Michigan placed 3rd overall with 54 points, giving validity to the idea that they could have won this meet on the right day.

The next race on Michigan's schedule was the Louisville XC Classic, a field that was far larger than what Harry Grove offered, but one that was similar in terms of competition level.

The Wolverines would face another conference rival in the Wisconsin women as well as an eventual national qualifying team in West Virginia. The end result, however, was very different in comparison to what Michigan had previously posted at Harry Grove.

In Louisville, Windemuller posted a monster runner-up result to emerge as the surprise low-stick for a top-heavy Michigan team. Even more encouraging was seeing second-year freshman Katelynne Hart place 4th while VanderLende placed 5th.

Through three scorers, no one was touching Michigan. The scoring potency simply overwhelmed their competition and neither Wisconsin nor West Virginia came close to matching that top-three.

With Forsyth finishing 10th overall, Alice Hill eventually closed out the scoring with an 18th place finish, a solid result that made her the best fifth scorer in the field by five points.

In the end, the women from Ann Arbor ended up dominating the field. Michigan scored just 39 points to take down a Wisconsin team that would turn out to be very good in the postseason. The Badgers settled with 75 points while West Virginia was much further back in 3rd place.

Through the first two meets of the season, Michigan had to be feeling good. They were facing a variety of different teams and were having some success against those top-flight programs.

At this point in the article, we usually talk about Nuttycombe or Pre-Nationals. However, the Wolverines attended neither of those meets last fall. Instead, they toed the line for the PSU National Open, a meet similar to that of Harry Grove and the Louisville Classic.

Michigan would cruise past their competition with ease, scoring 33 points to upend a runner-up Georgia Tech squad that scored 82 points. With the Wolverines putting three women in the top-five and all five scorers in the top-13, no other team in this field was going to get anywhere near the women of Big Blue.

As the Wolverines advanced to the postseason, they had to think that they had a shot at the BIG 10 title. They had come close to taking down the Minnesota women earlier in the season and they had trounced Wisconsin shortly after.

Sure enough, things started out strong for Michigan through their first three scorers. VanderLende continued to emerge as a true low-stick, finishing 2nd place overall and giving her team a huge scoring spark. Windemuller wasn't far behind, placing 6th overall, a result that tied Michigan with Minnesota through two runners.

Seeing Katelynne Hart finish 15th overall was a noticeable drop-off compared to Michigan's top-two scorers, but relative to the other teams in that field, the Wolverines were still well within reach of the title.

Unfortunately for them, their final two scorers faltered to 27th and 36th place overall, scoring gaps that were far too great for the Michigan women to recover from.

And in the end, the Wolverines would have to settle for an underwhelming 4th place result. Minnesota would win the title with 72 points, Wisconsin would finish runner-up with 78 points and Michigan State would place 3rd with 82 points.

Michigan scored 85 points.

After cruising through the Great Lakes regional meet and advancing to the national meet, the Michigan women held a lineup that was split in terms of potential. Either their top-three women were going to carry the Wolverines to a top-15 finish or the backend of this lineup would limit the team's ceiling.

But when the results were tallied, the story wasn't as black and white as one would think.

Surprisingly, no woman from Ann Arbor emerged as an All-American at the 2021 NCAA Fall XC Championships. And yet, Michigan still put three women inside the top-110.

Hart placed 69th overall while Windemuller finished 79th and VanderLende finished 108th. Through three runners, those were hardly poor results. However, Windemuller likely could have been anywhere from 20 to 30 spots better while VanderLende could have been anywhere from 60 to 80 spots better.

In our estimation, that means Michigan left at least 63 team points on the table through just their top-three runners. That difference would have catapulted the Wolverines to a 16th place finish.

Of course, with the bottom two scorers of Michigan's lineup finishing 179th and 181st overall, it would be unfair to say that the Wolverines' inflated scoring was confined only to their first three women.

Clearly, their backend had to be better.

The Michigan women would end their season with a 22nd place finish at the NCAA XC Championships. Is it fair to suggest that Michigan's absence from a large national-caliber meets (like Nuttycombe, Pre-Nationals or Joe Piane) last fall was to blame for result outside of the top-20?

That's certainly possible and something that the Michigan coaching staff might have recognized. In 2022, the Wolverine women are expected to go back to Nuttycombe.

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As we look ahead to the next few months of competition, it's hard not to be high on the Michigan women. While it's clear that they had flaws in the postseason, their scoring potency through three runners was some of the best in the nation when everyone was running their best.

And our previous concerns about depth? Well, they've been addressed since then.

But let's start with Michigan's top trio of scorers: Ericka VanderLende, Kayla Windemueller and Katelynne Hart.

We are strong believers that these women will continue to have major scoring impacts throughout the 2022 cross country seasons. Despite less-than-ideal showings at the 2021 fall national meet, VanderLende and Windemuller proved throughout last fall that they are All-American-caliber talents.

In fact, we have VanderLende ranked at TSR #36 and Windemuller ranked at TSR #40 in our preseason individual rankings. We're that high on them.

Not only that, but VanderLende has finished much higher on the national stage before, placing 25th at the 2019 NCAA XC Championships and then 65th at the NCAA Winter XC Championships.

To put it simply, we're not speculating about her talent.

We know that she's an elite scorer.

Similarly, Windemuller went on to prove that her breakout cross country season was no fluke. She ran 9:14 for 3000 meters in the winter and then 9:47 in the steeplechase this past spring. Not only is she validating her position as a cross country low-stick, but she's also indicating that she could be even better in 2022.

As for Hart, she could be the piece who truly gives Michigan a top-five scoring trio in the country. The former high school megastar was a DNF at the NCAA Winter XC Championships as a true freshman in a pandemic-altered year. However, she later showed refinement in the fall after placing 69th at the national meet.

The still-young Wolverine ace really only has one true cross country season under her belt and for the most part, it was promising. She still needs to deliver on her youth-driven upside, but simply being another year older puts her deeper into the "Do we think she can be an All-American?" conversation.

There's potential that Hart really breaks out in a major way this year. And if that happens, then Michigan will have three All-American candidates on their roster. On paper, that usually puts a team in the top-15 at the national meet.

Of course, as we saw last fall, firepower isn't necessarily the main concern for this team. While there are still improvements that could be made on the frontend of this lineup, the final two scoring spots is where Michigan's greatest room for growth is.

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When it comes to Michigan's depth, I have good news and bad news.

The bad news is that the Wolverines no longer list Anne Forsyth and Alice Hill on their 2022 cross country roster, two consistent fourth and fifth scorers from last fall. As a result, an already limited lineup has become increasingly more thin when it comes to scoring options.

But here's the good news: Michigan has added one of the NCAA's best Division Three cross country runners to their roster for the fall of 2022.

Joining the Wolverines this fall is Danielle Page, a graduate transfer from Tufts. The former D3 runner was phenomenal on the grass during her time with the Jumbos. Not only did Page finish 6th at the 2019 D3 NCAA XC Championships and 3rd at the 2021 D3 NCAA XC Championships, but she also won a NESCAC cross country title last fall.

The NESCAC, for those who are unfamiliar, is arguably the most competitive conference at the Division Three level. To put it simply, Page's accomplishment are no joke.

Is Page going to be an All-American this fall? Maybe not, but she doesn't have to be.

Just being a top-150 finisher at the national meet and a top-20 finisher at the BIG 10 XC Championships would allow the Michigan women to make massive improvements in their overall team score.

And frankly, those projected finishes might even be on the conservative end. There's a very good chance that Page outperforms those marks and lands somewhere closer to top-120 at the national meet and top-15 at the BIG 10 XC Championships.

Of course, trying to project how success at the Division Three level will translate to the Division One level is hardly a cookie-cutter task.

As for the rest of this lineup...well that's where things become a little less clear.

Women like Samantha Tran and Samantha Saenz have shown plenty of promise on the track, recently running 5k personal bests well under the 16:10 barrier. That's encouraging to see, but they'll also need to make noticeable improvements on their most recent cross country performances if Michigan is going to improve from last year.

We should, however, note that Tran finished 90th at the NCAA Winter XC Championships in March of 2021. Much like VanderLende, there should be no doubt about her potential. The only caveat is trying to figure out which version of Tran we will see on the grass this fall.

There is also one final name who needs to be highlighted: Lauren Pansegrau.

The Wisconsin native is staying in the midwest, but venturing to the state of Michigan to begin her college career. The incoming freshman was a true star in high school, owning times that could make her an instant-impact name this fall.

Pansegrau holds jaw-dropping marks of 10:13 for 3200 meters and 16:57 for 5000 meters on the grass. A 21st place finish at the Eastbay XC National Championships last fall is also extremely promising.

Pansegrau is obviously going to be a wild card. Michigan typically has success with star freshmen, but it's impossible to know just how good she'll be. However, if she's in the top-25 of this year's conference meet, then that will be a solid scoring upgrade alongside Page.

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Like we mentioned with our intro, the success of the Michigan women in 2022 will come down to a lot of different factors.

The trio of VanderLende, Windemuller and Hart all need to run at their best on the national stage. Page will need to effectively translate her D3 success to the D1 level. The veteran returners on this squad will need to carry their momentum from the track to the grass. Pansegrau will need to quickly acclimate to the collegiate environment and extend her outstanding high school success.

Does ALL of that need to happen in order for Michigan to be a top-15 team this year?

Nope. Even if two of those things happen, then the Wolverines are set to go, and that's largely why we have them ranked at TSR #11 this fall.

But if every single aspect of this lineup is tweaked and improved, then the Michigan women could absolutely win the BIG 10 title this fall...and maybe, just maybe, contend for a podium spot.