TSR's 2022 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Men): #12 Iowa State Cyclones

Written by Gavin Struve, additional commentary and edits by Garrett Zatlin

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An all-time cross country program that is fresh off its best season in 25 years, Iowa State will almost certainly be taking a step back in 2022.

That’s the bad news.

The good news, however, is that the Cyclones should still be nationally competitive and more than capable of contending for a top-10 finish at the NCAA XC Championships come November with a reloaded roster.

* * *

Iowa State was an already-good distance program entering the fall of 2021 that got gradually better as the season progressed.

The Cyclones opened their season at the notoriously tough Roy Griak Invitational and offered a glimpse at their potential with a devastatingly-close runner-up finish to BYU.

The Iowa State men flooded the front of the competitive field as Wesley Kiptoo finished runner-up. He was closely followed by an excellent supporting cast. Thomas Pollard placed 5th, Gable Sieperda placed 8th, Ryan Ford placed 9th and Ezekiel Rop (also known as Ezekiel Kibichii) placed 11th to close out the scoring. Chad Johnson landed at 15th overall for good measure while showing off a nice display of depth.

Despite the overwhelming depth and scoring prowess, the BYU men were simply one or two spots better than the Cyclones through each of the first four scoring positions. In the end, that led to Iowa State falling short of the win by a singular point.

Of course, far greater challenges lied ahead.

For their next meet, Iowa State would stay in the midwest as they attended the stacked Nuttycombe Invitational. And this time, Iowa State won the damn thing.

Kiptoo took home the individual title and was supported by arguably the best complementary lineup in the entire field. This time, Festus Lagat was the team's second scorer with a fantastic 17th place finish, giving Iowa State an excellent scoring spark in addition to Kiptoo.

Lagat was followed by Pollard and Sieperda who would have been low-sticks for a handful of other teams, placing 20th and 21st, respectively. Their fifth runner, Ryan Ford, finished 29th overall, emerging as the best fifth scorer in the field by nearly 20 spots.

The Cyclones’ Nuttycombe performance was a dominant display of team fitness and cohesion, firepower and depth, all of which solidified their status as a strong podium contender come the postseason.

Their victory also hinted that a return to the top of the BIG 12 — after Oklahoma State broke up their string of titles in 2020 — was very possible.

The Cowboys, however, had other plans.

Undeterred by the fact that ISU had just won the top regular season meet in the nation two weeks prior, the Oklahoma State men proved to have slightly-better top-end depth in the closer confines of a conference meet field.

Kiptoo once again took home the individual title, but Oklahoma State had scorers in the next three spots. The two teams eventually took every top-10 spot in the race, alternating positions.

Lagat delivered a clutch 5th place run while Pollard and Sieperda finished 7th and 8th. Rop rounded out the team's scoring with a 10th place finish. Iowa State also had Ford in 12th and Timothy Sindt in 15th.

Still, it was Oklahoma State's fourth and fifth runners who closed out their scoring slightly earlier than Iowa State's bottom two scorers did.

In the end, the Cowboys scored 24 points, taking home conference gold and beating Iowa State men who tallied 31 points of their own.

Nobody on Iowa State’s varsity squad ran poorly at the BIG 12 XC Championships. In fact, one might even say that they all ran well, which is hard for most teams to do, especially at the top of the NCAA distance running hierarchy.

However, despite their first postseason race being a mostly positive performance, the Cyclones had to have left Stillwater, Oklahoma feeling disappointed. They had finished runner-up to the Cowboys for a second-straight year after several years atop the proverbial mountain.

And newsflash, Oklahoma State is not getting any worse this year.

It likely didn’t help morale that Iowa State yet again finished behind the Cowboys at the Midwest Regional XC Championships. Fortunately for the Cyclones, their fortunes flipped when it mattered the most: at the NCAA XC Championships.

On the nation's biggest stage, Kiptoo posted a fantastic runner-up finish, falling to the only man who had beaten him earlier that year — reigning national champion Conner Mantz.

Pollard had a season-best race, finishing 21st overall. And after a small gap, the Cyclones closed out their scoring pretty quickly with three men finishing just outside of All-American status; Sieperda was 41st, Lagat 44th and Ford 47th.

On paper, that was an absolutely lethal combination of firepower and scoring support.

But wait, it gets better.

If one of those top-five scorers had faltered, Rop was not too far behind in 65th place. Chad Johnson was also a respectable seventh runner in 116th place.

When the dust settled, Iowa State was the second team to get their entire scoring five across the finish line, just behind Northern Arizona. And that was exactly where the Cyclones finished, runner-up behind one of the most dominant NCAA distance dynasties of all time.

The Cyclones have some cross country history themselves, but that result was still by far their best performance since winning team national titles in 1989 and 1994.

The 2021 Iowa State men didn’t just have depth throughout their varsity lineup, they had elite depth. It was a roster made up of a true megastar (Kiptoo) and an army of consistent runners who were fringe low-sticks themselves, although Pollard was better than a "fringe" low-stick.

But in 2022, this projected lineup will look very different compared to what we saw last year.

With four of their top-five scorers departing from that elite-caliber lineup, some reloading was necessary earlier this summer. Banking on the future development of returning scorers is also now a requirement.

And yet, despite all of that, the Cyclones are still a boarderline top-10 team in the country.

* * *

If you had shown someone the current iteration of the Cyclones’ cross country team entering last year, that person might be a lot more concerned than we are entering this year.

Fortunately, some internal development amongst those returning men was a key reason why ISU excelled last season.

Chief most among that group is Gable Sieperda. The Iowa native had been solid before last year, especially in the steeplechase, but he saw a fairly sizable improvement in the fall of 2021. More importantly, he was uber-consistent all throughout that season.

Our TSR #45 runner placed 8th at Roy Griak, 21st at Nuttycombe, 8th at the BIG 12 XC Championships, 12th at the Midwest regional meet and 41st at the NCAA XC Championships, the first spot out of All-American honors.

It also doesn’t hurt that the distance-centric runner earned personal bests in the 5000 meters (13:44) and the steeplechase (8:43) earlier this year.

Sieperda has the potential to be ISU’s top low-stick in the coming months. Even if he were to simply replicate last year's results, he would still offer excellent scoring prowess that Iowa State will certainly need later this fall.

Luckily, he won't be the only guy who the Cyclones can lean on when it comes to scoring.

That’s because Kelvin Bungei, a new arrival from the JUCO ranks, has the potential to step into a low-stick role of his own if he can quickly assimilate to the Division One level. And in our opinion, he may have the widest range of outcomes on this team.

Coach Jeremy Sudbury -- who worked under former head coach Martin Smith until taking on the Director role in the summer of 2021 -- has had established success and experience developing Kenyan men, namely Kiptoo, Lagat and 2019 cross country national champion Edwin Kurgat.

Bungei’s credentials aren’t too different from Kiptoo’s when the latter was joining Iowa State from the JUCO ranks. Of course, we don’t by any means expect Bungei to develop into the supreme low-stick and national title contender that Kiptoo was.

But an All-American finish in his debut season, specifically on the grass, doesn’t seem out of reach for this former Iowa Central star.

That’s because Bungei has already won a national title at the JUCO level, three of them actually, with one being on the grass.

Still, Bungei’s personal bests on the track are lacking for what one may expect out of a runner of that billing. He’s run 4:04 (mile), 8:13 (3k) and 14:20 (5k) with his steeplechase PR of 8:51 being his most impressive mark.

Those are very solid times, but nothing that would indicate that he can be a front-runner on a nationally elite team at the Division One level.

But the fact that Bungei has won national JUCO titles running those times alludes to impressive tactical savvy. We think he's in store for some major PRs once he takes to the oval against improved competition, similar to what we saw from Arkansas ace Patrick Kiprop when he moved up from the Division Two level last year.

At the very least, Bungei should slot into this scoring lineup nicely and he'll still have time to develop. Iowa State's history also suggests that he'll be a top finisher at the national meet later this fall and that's a hard trend to ignore.

* * *

While the top-half of the Cyclones' project lineup will be entirely new compared to last year, it will still be made up of familiar faces who are in line for a fitness boost after strong track seasons.

Rop, who emerged as a star at Eastern Kentucky, flashed improved consistency last fall, but somehow his ceiling/potential appeared to be lower as he routinely finished just behind the top pack(s) of elite runners.

For instance, during the 2021 cross country season, he placed 41st at Nuttycombe, 10th at the BIG 12 XC Championships and 65th at the national meet.

Even so, with multiple personal bests across the entire distance spectrum from this past track season, including a very good 13:36 mark for 5000 meters, Rop should be a more than capable frontend piece.

And if he delivers on the upside that we saw from him at EKU, then a top-10 ranking for the Iowa State men will be inevitable.

Another man due for an improvement on the grass is long-time veteran Chad Johnson. He was often the Cyclones’ seventh man in 2021, but earlier flashes (like a 7th place finish at the 2020 Big 12 XC Championships and a 43rd place finish at the 2019 NCAA XC Championships) as well as massive improvements this past track season, point toward a likely ascension on the grass this year.

After running 3:42 (1500), 7:52 (3k) and 13:34 (5k), Johnson has All-American potential and appears in line to cut his 2021 national meet placement in half. In fact, we even have him listed as an "Honorable Mention" name in our preseason individual rankings.

We then come to Nehemia Too who likely fits in the same category as Johnson even after he failed to crack Iowa State’s top-seven last year.

Too ultimately reach a new level of fitness on the track in 2022, running big marks of 1:49 (800), 3:39 (1500) and 13:52 (5k) while eventually contesting the 1500 meters at the NCAA Outdoor Championships.

Too is a near-lock to make Iowa State's varsity lineup later this year. He was simply too good on the track to not be a scorer, or at least a backend contributor, for this team in 2022. However, trying to figure out his ceiling following that outstanding track campaign will be fascinating to monitor.

Luckily, Iowa State will likely be able to rely on another transfer later this fall.

I am, of course, talking about Titus Winders, formerly Division Two program Southern Indiana. On paper, he could be the team's final scorer and maybe even their third or fourth runner as well.

That’s an exciting proposition considering that Winders has twice been a top-30 D2 All-American in cross country and has won indoor national titles in both the 5000 meters and the 3000 meters, both of which came last winter.

That said, Winders isn't the most consistent runner. He hasn’t, for instance, been an All-American on the grass since 2019, and he finished just outside of All-American status on the track this spring after winning double gold months prior.

Even so, with marks of 7:57 (3k), 13:38 (5k) and 29:21 (10k), Winders is more than qualified to be a middle lineup scorer on a national meet qualifier. And with improved consistency, he could believably emerge as a low-stick.

Rounding out this varsity lineup will be Tim Sindt, a hometown standout at the high school level who appears ready to make more of an impact at the college level. He’s been at his best on the grass, and a 15th place finish at the 2021 BIG XC 12 Championships was already promising.

If one of the newcomers falter, Sindt should be a capable scoring replacement.

But beyond him, there’s not a ton of experience on this team.

A talented freshman class with names like Seth Clevenger, Ryan Watts, Emanuel Galdino, Levi Taylor and Daniel Romary, amongst others, could form the crux of a future Cyclone contending team.

However, that group likely needs some time to adapt before they can be relied on. Silas Winders, Titus’ younger brother, boasts a little more experience from his time at the Division Two level, but also needs to develop a bit further as well.

* * *

Iowa State has come close in recent years to replicating the success it enjoyed toward the end of the 20th century. This season shouldn’t be a vast departure from that trend, but the Cyclones have stacked odds at returning to the podium, and beating Oklahoma State at the BIG 12 XC Championships for that matter.

This year, they lack an elite-level low-stick and an individual title contender like Wesley Kiptoo. However, that doesn’t mean they don’t have any All-American candidates.

In fact, it’s more likely than not that at least one of these Iowa State men will finish in the top-40 at this year's cross country national meet. And it’s not out of the question to think that someone could build similar momentum that Thomas Pollard developed last year.

In 2022, the Cyclones will look like a very different, but still competitive, team after their top-half podium finish in 2021. We don’t know what their lineup order will be, but perhaps that’s a good thing.

On the flip side, without the proven depth that is held by many other top teams around this range of our rankings, the Cyclones will have to count on all of their scorers to run well on the same day. Iowa State will be relying on a bevy of newcomers and guys who were previously middle or backend scorers.

Sudbury reloaded admirably through the transfer portal and with a large freshman class, but many of the guys in that second group likely aren’t ready to contribute at this level just yet.

With several accomplished runners varsity lineup, the Cyclones should still have a pretty high floor in spite of their departures. A return to the national meet, at the very least, seems all but guaranteed.

However, in order for this team to secure a sixth-straight top-10 finish on the national stage, Sudbury will have to hope that his team’s whole is greater than the sum.