TSR's 2022 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Women): #1 NC State Wolfpack

Here's the thing.

The NC State women aren't just going to be good this fall.

They're going to be historically elite.

By the time that this 2022 fall season ends, the Wolfpack could be one of the 10 greatest cross country lineups to ever toe the line -- and maybe even top-five.

And while that's only speculation, the mass amount of talent on this roster is almost exhausting just to read through. The endless accolades, the jaw-dropping personal bests, the endless depth...it's all incredible stuff.

But before we evaluate how good this team will be over the next three months, it's important to understand how they got to this point. Let's rewind to last fall.

* * *

The winter cross country season was, by every metric, a good one for the NC State women. They dominated the ACC (with ease) and eventually earned a runner-up finish to the BYU women at the national meet.

But it was clear that the NC State women were capable of winning the national title during that pandemic-altered season, something that they made sure to prove eight months later.

Following a rust-buster, the Wolfpack women ventured to the Joe Piane Invite for their first true race of the season. There, they would face an extremely deep New Mexico squad and a firepower-laden Alabama lineup.

None of that, however, ultimately mattered.

Because NC State had both of those things.

In a dominant display of fitness, the women from Raleigh, North Carolina saw Kelsey Chmiel, Hannah Steelman, Katelyn Tuohy, Sarah LaTour and Allie Hays post an outstanding string of results. Those five women went 3-6-8-9-12, respectively, a collective performance that no other team in the field came close to matching.

And to make things even more impressive, Samantha Bush earned a pleasantly surprising 19th place finish to take the sixth spot in this lineup.

For the most part, many of the results that we saw from the NC State women were somewhat expected. However, the rise of LaTour was a stunner. The veteran Wolfpack runner had always been a solid contributor, but this was easily the best race of her career.

In the end, the Wolfpack women would post just 38 points, easily outscoring the New Mexico women who were a distance 2nd place, scoring 94 points of their own.

However, an even greater challenge would lie ahead at the Nuttycombe Invite. Not only would the defending national champions, BYU, headline the meet, but the New Mexico women would also be out for revenge.

In Madison, Wisconsin, the combination of Chmiel and Tuohy earned a pair of huge low-stick results, placing 2nd and 5th overall.

Through two runners, NC State was once again unmatched.

Samantha Bush also emerged as an outstanding scorer, securing an 18th place finish to give the middle portion of NC State's lineup a valuable injection of low points.

But from there, the rest of this lineup began to dwindle. Allie Hays continued to hold her own, finishing 31st, while Heather Holt closed out the scoring with a 46th place finish. With Mariah Howlett emerging as the team's sixth runner with a 53rd place result, it was hard to say that NC State's supporting cast ran poorly.

However, through 12th place and 26th place, the New Mexico women simply had greater compact scoring. Despite not having the low-stick scoring of NC State, the Lobos' depth gave them zero weaknesses.

As a result, NC State would finish runner-up, giving New Mexico a (somewhat) surprising win.

But there was a catch: NC State was without star veteran Hannah Steelman.

Had she run, the Wolfpack would have won with relative ease.

Fast forward to the ACC XC Championships, a meet where we saw Steelman return to the team's top-seven. And despite juggernaut programs like North Carolina, Florida State, Syracuse and Notre Dame crowding the field, the Wolfpack finished the race almost like it was a time-trial.

With Chmiel, Tuohy, Steelman, Hays and Bush going 1-2-4-5-8 in the overall results, NC State rebounded from a Nuttycombe result in one of the most dominant conference races that the ACC has ever seen.

Of course, as we all knew, the national meet would be the Wolfpack's greater priority.

After cruising through their regional meet, the NC State women venture to Tallahassee. There, they would once again face New Mexico and BYU, two programs that were more than capable of taking down the Wolfpack as they had each previously shown.

That, however, didn't happen.

In a statement race that concluded their revenge campaign, the NC State women saved the best performance of their season for their November finale.

Chmiel's 6th place finish was phenomenal, but expected. It was a somewhat similar deal for Katelyn Tuohy who placed 15th overall.

From there, the rest of this lineup was fantastic, producing results that would have made them clear low-sticks for almost any other team in the country.

Hays placed 22nd, Steelman secured a clutch 24th place finish and Bush ended her breakout season with a 32nd place finish All-American result. That final All-American honor was huge for NC State.

If someone in that top-five had faltered, then NC State's sixth runner, who was all the way back in 95th place overall, would have instead filled that last scoring spot.

If Bush had been removed from that top-five and replaced with the Wolfpack's sixth woman, then NC State would have not won the national title.

But with a score of 84 points, no team in the NCAA was capable of coming anywhere close to the collective top-five efforts that we saw from NC State's outstanding varsity lineup.

* * *

It feels absolutely insane to think that the Wolfpack women are losing both Allie Hays as well as Hannah Steelman and may actually be even BETTER than they were last year.

Of course, let's not dismiss the departures of Steelman and Hays like it's nothing. Those two women were instrumental in NC State's title campaign last fall. Their ability to be one of five superstar scorers is almost the entire reason why the Wolfpack won gold.

If just one of those women faltered on the national stage, there's a good chance that the Wolfpack don't enter this season as the reigning national champions.

But this Raleigh-based program has arguably the greatest depth in the country. Not just in terms of supporting runners, but also in terms of potential varsity scorers and possible All-Americans.

Let's just get Tuohy and Chmiel out of the way in terms of analysis.

Those two women were beyond incredible last fall and Tuohy reached an all-time elite status on the track this past year. As long as they run well, NC State is going to be in contention to win any meet that they toe the line for.

However, much like the Nico Young and Drew Bosley duo for the Northern Arizona men, there is only so much room for this NC State tandem to improve their scoring this fall.

And to be clear, that is not at all a bad thing.

There's just only so much that we can say about Tuohy and Chmiel when it comes to their impact on this team in 2022 relative to last fall.

The third projected scorer in this lineup is likely going to be Samantha Bush. The 32nd place finisher from last year's national meet was flat-out incredible during her breakout season. She turned out to be one of the most important scorers for NC State throughout last fall.

But it would have been easy for Bush to have that kind of season, not race again, and then leave us to wonder if her 2021 fall campaign was just a fluke...or if it could be replicated later this fall.

Luckily, Bush went to the indoor and outdoor ovals where she validated her breakout year on the grass. In fact, she was noticeably better on the track than she was on the cross country course -- and that's saying a lot!

Running times of 2:04 (800), 2:43 (1k), 4:13 (1500), 8:54 (3k) and 15:35 (5k) made Bush one of the best all-around distance runners in the country this past winter and spring. She was also a 6th place All-American in the 3000 meters at the indoor national meet.

There's a very good chance that Bush becomes a top-10 runner at the national meet come November. And if that happens, then NC State's depth doesn't even need to be amazing. It just needs to be good enough.

Of course, NC State's following scorers are more than just "good enough".

In fact, they'll likely be some of the best scorers in the nation.

Neither Marlee Starliper nor Sydney Seymour have run in an NC State singlet during a cross country season. And yet, both women are listed in the top-30 of our preseason individual rankings.

Starliper has battled injuries for nearly two years, but what was a megastar in high school. Luckily, she returned to competition this past spring and built jaw-dropping momentum. The current NC State third-year talent ran 15:37 for 5000 meters at the NCAA East Regional Championships and then qualified for the outdoor national meet where she ran 15:36.

Everything about Starliper's 2022 outdoor track season suggests that she'll be an All-American on the grass this fall. Although, admittedly, that's a bit of a risky assumption, especially since we haven't seen her race on the grass (as a collegiate) before.

But is anyone really going to doubt the upside and potential scoring that Starliper could bring to this team? Based on our TSR #28 ranking of her, we certainly aren't doubting her.

And then there's Sydney Seymour, the graduate transfer from Tennessee who could put this NC State team over the top and amongst the all-time great cross country lineups.

Admittedly, Seymour has never been the same All-American that someone like Bush, Steelman and Hays were last fall.

She does, however, have the potential to reach that same point.

Despite qualifying for the 2021 NCAA XC Championships as an individual last fall, Seymour wouldn't toe the line for the national meet due to a rumored illness. Luckily, her breakout year on the track was just as good as what Starliper showed us.

With some of the best momentum in the NCAA, the former Tennessee runner threw down a monster 5k personal best of 15:34, eventually qualifying for the outdoor national meet.

The 9th place finisher at the 2021 SEC XC Championships has a very good chance of being an All-American this fall. While she was very solid on the grass, her performances on the oval suggest that Seymour is likely far better now than she was at this point last year.

And with a TSR #29 ranking, we're going all-in on Seymour's potential.

* * *

But wait, there's more!

The combination of Tuohy, Chmiel, Bush, Starliper and Seymour is our projected top-five for NC State this fall. However, their supporting cast features names who could absolutely emerge as scorers on the right day.

Savannah Shaw is a true veteran of this program who had a breakout year on the track. Much like Seymour and Starliper, her success in the 5000 meters makes it challenging to imagine a scenario where she's not a varsity runner.

And when you remember that she owns a 5k personal best of 15:33, the idea that Shaw won't be a scorer this fall is just mind-blowing.

Admittedly, Shaw's success on the grass is far more limited compared to what she has done on the track. Her best results were a pair of 25th place finishes at the ACC XC Championships and the Southeast Regional XC Championships.

We haven't seen Shaw emerge as a scorer on the grass, but how often does a 15:33 (5k) runner not emerge as a varsity scorer for their respective cross country team?

That almost never happens...right?

We also need to highlight Gionna Quarzo, one of the more underrated recruits from NC State's historically loaded 2020 freshman class.

While Tuohy and Starliper have had monumental success early in their college careers, it's been Quarzo who has slowly risen up the ranks of this powerhouse roster. While her cross country impact has been somewhat minimal, finishing in the top-10 of two "Open" races last fall, Quarzo's 5k and 10k success has been extremely encouraging.

The third-year Wolfpack runner has posted times of 15:56 (5k) and 33:24 (10k) over the last few track seasons. However, maybe more importantly, the Pennsylvania native also qualified for the outdoor national meet in the 10k this past spring.

Few women have shown a more promising upwards trajectory than Quarzo has. She's not necessarily expected to be an impact scorer immediately, but there might be a scenario where she becomes too good to leave out of this lineup.

Both Shaw and Quarzo are listed in the "Just Missed" section of our preseason individual rankings. And honestly, if someone argued hard enough, we could have ranked both of these women in our top-50.

It's also shocking that we have yet to mention Sarah LaTour, a veteran who stunned the country with a huge 9th place finish at Joe Piane last fall. Truthfully, she never reached that point again, but talent like hers doesn't just disappear.

If LaTour replicates that performance on a more consistent basis, then...could NC State have eight women capable of a top-50 individual ranking? I don't know how that would work with certain women have limited opportunities to race against varsity competition, but if any team is capable of producing that kind of depth, then it's NC State.

Other women like Heather Holt, Nevada Mareno, Jenna Schulz, Brooke Rauber and Mariah Howlett all have the potential to be varsity runners as well...I just don't know how they'll get the chance to do so on a roster that is this deep.

* * *

At The Stride Report, we don't like to make over-the-top or outlandish predictions unless we truly believe in them.

For the most part, we like to think that we're pretty measured in our takes.

But...is there a chance that this is the deepest cross country roster ever assembled?

I sincerely can't find a single weak point on this team. Their firepower is unmatched, their depth is easily the best in the country, almost everyone has made dramatic improvements as of late and most of these women are highly experienced veterans.

The only cautious aspect that I have with this lineup is that there are a good number of women who aren't proven cross country All-Americans or varsity scorers...yet.

Starliper, Seymour, Shaw, Quarzo and LaTour still have to prove themselves (more than they already have) if NC State is going to win the national title as comfortably we think they will.

Although that argument probably applies to Seymour the least.

But if the only critique that I can offer about this group is that, "I haven't seen all of these sub-15:40 runners race at their best on the grass yet," then NC State should be more than ok for this fall season.

And who knows? Maybe that untapped potential is what will ultimately make this team one of the best cross country squads that the NCAA has ever seen.