TSR's 2022 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Men): #7 Washington Huskies

There's a very real argument to be had that the Washington men were the most accomplished distance team in the NCAA this past spring.

Whether it was their three All-Americans in the 1500 meters, the rise of Brian Fay as a true superstar or the encouraging 10k performances that we saw from Kieran Lumb, the Huskies could seemingly do no wrong on the outdoor oval.

Now, in 2022, this Seattle-based program will enter the fall months looking to replicate their monstrous success from just a few months ago. With tons of firepower, untapped upside and a few key additions, the UW men could be a major problem for their competitors throughout October and November.

* * *

Despite a few rust-busters, Coach Andy Powell wouldn't truly test his best men in any major races or invitationals until the Nuttycombe Invite.

And unfortunately for them, the rust was still very much there.

Kieran Lumb was the team's top scorer, posting a modest 44th place finish. For the most part, that was a solid result, but from ideal for a program that was supposed to be one of the best in the nation.

Second-year freshman Leo Daschbach held his own, placing 61st overall to offer a respectable complementary scorer who was somewhat close behind Lumb. It was a similar story for up-and-comer Luke Houser who placed 74th overall.

But with Washington's final two scorers placing 105th and 122nd in the overall results, the Huskies just didn't have enough firepower or depth to counter some of the scoring seen from the top teams in this field.

The UW men ultimately faded to 14th place in the team standings, a significantly underwhelming result which put them well behind teams like Utah State, Boise State and Harvard.

On paper, there were serious concerns about the scoring structure of this lineup. However, as we would eventually learn, Washington's lineup that we saw at Nuttycombe was far from finished. Coach Powell still had an ace up his sleeve.

At the PAC-12 XC Championships, the Washington men looked like a completely different (and significantly better) team than we had seen just two weeks prior.

This time, Irish distance standout Brian Fay made his NCAA debut, throwing down a game-changing 9th place finish which was complemented by Lumb's 10th place result.

Not only that, but the next three scorers in this lineup all came through in the clutch, delivering some of the best cross country results of their careers. Daschbach placed 14th, Houser placed 16th and Waskom placed 20th.

On paper, the Huskies put together a very complete lineup that featured a solid balance of firepower and depth.

The Washington men would place 3rd overall at their conference meet, although it was hard to fault the Huskies for settling with bronze. After all, Colorado and Stanford looked like two of the five best teams in the country last fall.

However, with 68 points, the UW men were able to edge a strong Oregon squad by four points, giving the Huskies some highly valuable momentum as they prepared to move up to the 10k racing distance.

Things only got better at the West Regional XC Championships, a meet where Washington placed runner-up, only five points behind Stanford. Lumb was the star of the show with a regional victory while Fay and Daschbach recorded top-10 finishes as well.

But for as good as the Huskies were in Sacramento, they needed to be just as good, and maybe even better, in Tallahassee in order for them to be a top-10 team at the national meet.

That, however, didn't quite happen.

Brian Fay emerged as the team's best low-stick with a promising 38th place All-American finish, a nice injection of scoring potency that any top-ranked team would love to have. Fay, however, would be Washington's only top-70 scorer at the national meet.

Proctor, Lumb and Waskom were far from bad. In fact, those three men offered great scoring stability in the middle portion of this lineup. The trio of Husky scorers went 75-87-99 in the overall results, giving Washington a sneaky-good total of four men in the top-100 spots.

Daschbach would be the team's fifth scorer in 134th place. And while that result was far from ideal, it wasn't catastrophic, either. The Class of 2020 high school star was still able to close out his team's scoring quick enough for the Huskies to place 13th overall in the final standings.

And for the most part, that finish was a fairly accurate representation of this team's true talent for the 2021 fall cross country season.

But in 2022, their potential may be far better than that.

* * *

I always like to start our analysis portion of these articles by discussing the departures of each team. And in Washington's case, that means saying goodbye to Kieran Lumb and Tibebu Proctor, at least for the fall months.

Neither of those men have any cross country eligibility remaining.

Lumb was usually a strong low-stick for this team, although his performances were somewhat up and down. Placing 44th at Nuttycombe and 87th at the national meet were fine, but placing 10th at the PAC-12 XC Championships and winning the West regional title were extremely encouraging results.

At his worst, Lumb was a valuable third scorer who steadied the middle poriton of this lineup. Seeing him go is a brutal development for a team whose depth was already somewhat limited last fall.

Luckily, there might be a replacement for him (but more on that in a moment).

And then there's the loss of Tibebu Proctor, a former veteran of this program who was an All-American in 2018 before assuming the role of a support scorer in the ensuing seasons of competition.

Proctor wasn't super consistent last fall, finishing 122nd at Nuttycombe and 49th at the PAC-12 XC Championships. However, a 75th place finish at the national meet is hard to ignore. That's not the easiest result to replicate for most returners.

The good news, however, is that Washington was still able to succeed even when Proctor wasn't a scorer last fall. On paper, this roster should be deep enough to the point where the Huskies can thrive without him (which doesn't necessarily make losing Proctor any easier).

Those are the two scoring losses that Washington has to prepare for, but let's talk about the two men who we think are going to be for-sure low-sticks for the Huskies in 2022.

Brian Fay is a star. While his cross country results barely made him a fringe All-American, it's fair to say that he made improvements on the track. Running 13:16 (5k), 28:22 (10k) and 8:32 (steeple) this past spring, while also splitting 3:52 on a DMR anchor leg during the winter months, is beyond impressive.

Heck, that steeple mark isn't even his PR!

Fay actually ran an 8:29 personal best in the summer of 2021.

Everything that we have seen from Fay in 2022 suggests that he's going to be a top All-American three months from now. Do last year's performances on the grass indicate that? Maybe not, but our TSR #15 runner in our preseason rankings still has room to cut off even more points from Washington's team score.

So who is the second low-stick on this team? Who will that be? Well, how about Princeton graduate transfer, Ed Trippas?

This incoming superstar was very underrated throughout last fall and continued to be a monster on the track when he ran 8:20 in the steeplechase to finish 5th at the NCAA Outdoor Championships. His PR continues to sit at 8:19 from the summer of 2021 when he represented Australia at the Olympic Games.

On the grass, Trippas posted some very under-the-radar results that didn't seem like they were fully appreciated. He won the "Open" section at Paul Short, finished 39th at Pre-Nationals, was runner-up at the Ivy League XC Championships, placing 6th in the Mid-Atlantic region and ended his season with a 67th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships.

To put it simply, there wasn't a bad race on Trippas' resume last fall and he seemingly got better as the season progressed. A top-70 finish at the national meet should not go unnoticed and that's ultimately what why we put Trippas as our TSR #50 runner our preseason individual rankings.

It's very realistic to think that Trippas could be an All-American this fall. Or, at the very least, that he'll be a top-50 runner. When paired with Fay, that's a fairly strong 1-2 punch, one that is arguably better than what Washington had last year.

Of course, we still need to find three more scorers to make a complete lineup.

* * *

The returners on this team were very solid last year, sometimes even good!

But in the fall of 2022, this contingent of backend supporting scorers could become legitimate low-sticks by November...and I can't say that about most teams.

Let's start with Luke Houser, a guy who has grown out of his collegiate youth and is approaching that of a veteran. After a few promising seasons of performances, the Washington ace had a huge breakout year on the track this past winter and spring.

Houser recorded wicked fast times of 3:37 (1500), 3:56 (mile), 7:52 (3k) and 13:43 (5k), becoming one of the most feared up-and-comers that the NCAA has to offer. He led his DMR team to a 7th place All-American finish at the indoor national meet and secured 5th place All-American honors at the outdoor national meet back in June.

The performances that we saw from Houser on the grass last fall were solid, but not necessarily super exciting. Placing 74th at Nuttycombe and 16th at the PAC-12 XC Championships are fairly respectable results, but we know that he can do better.

Not just because of his recent success on the track, but because we've seen more from Houser in previous cross country seasons!

During the winter months, for instance, Houser was 10th at the PAC-12 Winter XC Championships and then 51st at the NCAA Winter XC Championships.

Yes, it's true, Houser didn't seem to be nearly as strong on the grass last fall as he was on the track during the winter and spring months.

But after such a huge year on the track and having proven success during the winter cross country season, it's extremely realistic (maybe even probable) that Houser will be closer to Fay and Trippas this fall rather than the rest of these returners.

Of course, if the rest of this supporting cast also improves like we think they will, then that last statement may not be true.

Joe Waskom, for instance, is also returning this fall after a breakout year on the track which was arguably just as good (or better) than what we saw from Houser.

The newest Washington star ran 3:56 in the mile during the indoor track season and was on the same 7th place All-American DMR squad that Houser was on at the indoor national meet.

Then, during the spring, Waskom won the PAC-12 title in the 1500 meters and ran 3:39 (also in the 1500 meters) in the prelims of the outdoor national meet. He would later stun the country with an upset national title victory.

Waskom, who has also run 8:35 in the steeplechase during the spring of 2021, was a very fairly reliable backend scorer for the Washington men last fall. Finishing 19th at the PAC-12 XC Championships and 99th at the national meet are results that the Huskies will happily take once again in 2022.

However, the results I just listed feel closer to Waskom's floor instead of his ceiling going into 2022.

In fact, I decided to go back and evaluate the last five men's NCAA 1500 meter champions. I then looked at how those men performed on the grass if they returned the following fall. If they didn't return, I highlighted if they went pro or if they had past cross country success.

Here's what I found...

• 2021 NCAA 1500 meter Champion: Cole Hocker (Oregon). Would sign a pro contract with Nike the following summer and qualify for the Olympics. Finished 69th at the 2019 NCAA XC Championships.

• 2019 NCAA 1500 meter Champion: Yared Nuguse (Notre Dame). Would go on to finish 46th at the 2019 NCAA XC Championships and then 23rd at the 2021 NCAA Winter XC Championships.

• 2018 NCAA 1500 meter Champion: Ollie Hoare (Wisconsin). Would go on to finish 17th at the 2018 NCAA XC Championships and then 18th at the 2019 NCAA XC Championships.

• 2017 NCAA 1500 meter Champion: Josh Kerr (New Mexico). Would go on to finish 7th at the 2017 Mountain West XC Championships and 224th at the 2017 NCAA XC Championships.

• 2016 NCAA 1500 meter Champion: Clayton Murphy. Would go on to sign a pro contract with Nike the following summer and qualify for the Olympics. His best cross country result is arguably a 20th place finish at the Great Lakes Regional XC Championships.

Five men isn't a great sample size, but it does give you an idea of the company that Waskom is now in. While neither Kerr nor Murphy would be considered cross country guys, Waskom's performances on the grass are certainly closer to that of Hocker, Nuguse and Hoare.

And then we have Nathan Green, the Idaho native who was a superstar in high school and even better as a Husky freshman.

After running 4:00 (mile) and 8:53 (3200) at the prep level and then redshirting the fall and winter months, Green made a massive statement to the NCAA on the outdoor oval. The true freshman threw down sub-3:40 performance after sub-3:40 performance in the 1500 meters. He eventually ran 3:37 in the prelims of the outdoor national meet and earned 7th place All-American honors in the finals.

Trying to figure out how Green's incredible 1500 meter success, which he carried into the summer months for the U20 World Championships, isn't easy. The rising sophomore was the 11th place finisher at the 2019 NXN Championships, so in theory, he should be able to fit into this lineup fairly well.

But even if he's not a scorer, then he should at least be one of the better sixth or seventh varsity runners in the nation.

* * *

As for everyone else, the rest of these returners have each shown flashes of promise, either on the grass or on the track.

The trio of Sam Affolder, Leo Daschbach and Isaac Green have the potential to be legitimate top-five names for Washington this fall. However, we'll need to see their best performances on a more consistent basis.

Green, for instance, has run incredible times of 7:49 (3k) and 13:27 (5k) on the track, although that latter PR came in the spring of 2021. Unfortunately, last fall, the elder Husky star wasn't able to translate that track success to the grass.

But let's not forget, the fall of 2021 was not Green's best fall cross country campaign. During the winter of 2021, he finished a huge 7th place at the PAC-12 XC Championships and then 104th at the NCAA Winter XC Championships.

If Green can replicate his winter cross country results in 2022, then this Washington team should have almost zero flaws...well, in theory that is.

Daschbach, who is well-known for being a sub-four miler in high school, was actually somewhat consistent last fall. He posted a few solid results on the grass, placing 61st at Nuttycombe, 14th at the PAC-12 XC Championships and 9th at the West Regional XC Championships.

Still, it feels like we have yet to see him at his full potential. He could absolutely be a reliable top-five scorer, although that will depend on whether or not the recent improvements of Houser, Waskom and Nathan Green exceed Daschbach's current fitness.

As for Affolder, he's still young-ish and truthfully doesn't have too many cross country accolades. He did, however, run 7:55 (3k) and 8:43 (steeple) earlier this year. And for a guy who's not even guaranteed to make this team's top-seven, that's extremely impressive.

Oh, and by the way, we haven't even talked about the freshmen yet.

The trio of James Crabtree, Jamar Distel and Evan Jenkins are a lethal group of distance recruits, making up one of the better trios of high school talents that an NCAA team has brought in this year.

Crabtree has run 4:08 in the mile, 8:17 for 3000 meters and 14:35 for 5000 meters on the track. Jenkins has run 8:50 for 3200 meters. Distel has run 14:47 for 5000 meters on the grass.

Could one of those men crack Washington's top-seven? Sure, it's possible, but for as good as that trio is, they aren't necessarily "must haves" for the 2022 cross country season.

The Huskies, on paper, are probably deep enough to get by without them. We would think that this trio will be redshirted, but you never quite know with Andy Powell.

* * *

It's really hard to look at this roster and find any flaws. They have multiple low-sticks, tons of underrated depth, top returners who didn't even run their best last fall, elite recruits and TONS of upside.

However, the only critique that we could possibly offer is the fact that we are relying on speculation instead of proven cross country results. There is only one cross country All-American on this team (Brian Fay) and even then, he only barely earned that honor.

While we absolutely believe that Washington will be better this fall, we just don't know exactly how much better they will be. Relying on track performances to seamlessly translate to the fall months is never a sure-fire thing.

Still, the amount of talent that the Huskies boast is almost overwhelming. It's extremely difficult to imagine a scenario where they aren't a top-10 team in 2022.

And if everyone does run to their full potential?

Well, in that case, the Washington men might as well be locks for the podium in November.