TSR's 2022 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Men): #19 Tennessee Volunteers

Here we are. The Tennessee Volunteers.

Few teams have ever undergone the roster makeover that Tennessee had this summer. The introduction of a megastar coach in Sean Carlson, followed by the addition of numerous top-tier transfers, has completely reshaped how we view the Volunteers.

It's been 17 years since the Tennessee men qualified for the NCAA XC Championships and it's been 38 years since they last won an SEC title on the grass.

But in 2022, both of those droughts have a good chance of ending, something that we most certainly would not have said three months ago.

* * *

Although this team will look very different this fall compared to last year, going through Tennessee's 2021 cross country season is still important. Because in order to know where one team is going, you have to first have to understand where they once were.

Last fall, the Vols started off their season by toeing the line for the Roy Griak Invitational. There, they would face the likes of Iowa State, BYU, Michigan State and Minnesota. However, Tennessee wasn't anywhere close to those teams. In fact, their men's teams also finished behind Wyoming, Santa Clara and Portland State, settling for a 8th place team finish.

Karl Thiessen was the lone bright spot in this field as he earned a promising 13th place finish, emerging as a true low-stick that we knew he could be.

However, from there, the gaps were plentiful. Veteran Alex Crigger held his own with a respectable 38th place finish, but the final three scorers placed 62nd, 70th and 90th in the overall results, inflating Tennessee's team score out of a competitive range.

Fast forward to Pre-Nationals and things wouldn't get much better.

Thiessen continued to emerge as a front-runner, but a 65th place finish could only do so much for the Vols' overall team score. Crigger's 107th place finish was fine, but seeing the final three scorers go 147-156-207 in the overall results sent Tennessee plummeting down the team standings.

In the end, Tennessee would finish 25th overall out of 40 teams and just two points away from 24th place Charleston Southern.

The SEC XC Championships would prove to be a minor improvement from Tennessee's earlier regular season performances. Thiessen earned a 14th place finish while Crigger placed 30th. Will Cronin showed promise with a 36th place result and the Vols' final two scorers placed within the top-52 overall spots.

In the end, a 5th place finish over 6th place Kentucky, while far from exciting, was a positive result for a Tennessee team had struggled against high-level competition earlier in the year.

All but one Tennessee Vol would end their season at the South Regional XC Championships. Thiessen's 7th place finish was huge, arguably his best of the season, and Crigger once again did a good enough job by placing 31st. Even Will Cronin held his own by placing 45th.

However, with 69th and 79th place finishes, the Tennessee men had to settle for a 7th place team result, ending a rather unexciting 2021 fall campaign. Thiessen, however, would advance to the national meet where he would place 125th overall.

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It's hard to know where to start when talking about the 2022 version of the Tennessee men. The varsity lineup that we will see from the Vols over the next few months will look almost nothing like the group that they fielded last year.

Alex Crigger is the only name who Tennessee is expected to lose in 2022. It's possible that Will Cronin doesn't return, but we have reason to believe that he will get one last season of fall eligibility.

Crigger wasn't near Thiessen's level last fall, but he was a respectable secondary option. Finishing 30th at the SEC XC Championships and 31st at the South Regional XC Championships didn't blow us away, but he could have theoretically cracked this team's top-seven if he had eligibility.

Even so, Crigger's departure isn't quite as impactful as Karl Thiessen's return.

While the top low-stick from last year's team wasn't always perfect, he had enough good performances to suggest that he'll be a legitimate high-impact scorer this fall. A 13th place finish at Roy Griak paired with a 7th place finish at the South Regional XC Championships was highly encouraging.

Of course, Thiessen's role in 2022 will be a lot more different than what it was in 2021.

Not necessarily less impactful, just...different.

If he turns out to be the third or fourth scorer like we think he will, then Thiessen brings great upside, excellent scoring stability and underrated experience to a middle-lineup spot that most teams can't replicate. His value, relative to that scoring position, will be sky high.

And then there's the other returners on this team, such as Eli Nahom, Riley Buchholz, Canaan Anderson, Conner Hawkins and Will Cronin. Those first three names are fairly young, meaning that they have the potential to make massive leaps in their fitness this fall.

Amongst those younger runners, Canaan Anderson is probably the main name to watch this fall. He was far from great last fall, but eventually made promising developments during the winter and spring months, running times of 3:42 for 1500 meters and 8:11 for 3000 meters.

We have no idea how much better Anderson will be on the grass after running those kinds of times, but we have to think that he has a chance of cracking this top-seven.

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Alright, those were the returners. Now let's talk about the new guys.

The introduction of former Notre Dame megastar Dylan Jacobs, who won the 10k national title this past spring, is monumental. In fact, Jacobs might be the single biggest distance transfer that I've witnessed in recent memory.

With jaw-dropping marks 7:49 (3k), 13:14 (5k) and 28:01 (10k), few men in the NCAA are as talented as Jacobs. The ACC cross country runner-up last fall also earned a 10th place finish at the cross country national meet in 2021.

Jacobs is very clearly a top-five name in the country this fall and there's a very good chance that he contends for a conference and regional title later this season. Strictly on paper, his scoring potency begins to lift Tennessee out of a scoring hole that would have taken the program years to get themselves out of.

However, despite Jacobs' overall talent, he alone can't bring Tennessee to a level of national competitiveness -- and Coach Sean Carlson seemingly understood that.

That's why Tennessee also went out and landed Yaseen Abdalla, one of the most dynamic and electric distance talents from the 2022 indoor and outdoor track seasons.

The former Texas runner owns times of 3:57 (mile), 7:51 (3k), 13:33 (5k) and 28:33 (10k). That 3k mark was actually run on a flat-track, meaning that Abdalla earned a conversion of 7:46, putting him at the NCAA #18 spot this past winter.

Last fall, Abdalla had yet to truly breakout, but he still earned top finishes at major meets. A 9th place finish at the Cowboy Jamboree was very strong, a 29th place finish at Pre-Nationals was solid, a 20th place finish at the BIG 12 XC Championships could have been better and a 32nd place All-American finish at the NCAA XC Championships was phenomenal.

Abdalla is a perfect complementary scorer next to Dylan Jacobs. If he can replicate his All-American cross country result from last fall on a more consistent basis, then Tennessee could have one of the better 1-2 punches in the country.

Admittedly, Abdalla has had moments of inconsistency over the last few years, but not so often that it has become a major concern. As long as he brings the high-level scoring potency to this team that we think he can, then the Volunteers look like a national qualifying squad.

But for as good as Jacobs, Abdalla and Thiessen are, the math didn't suggest that this team was going to be ranked in our top-25.

Yes, the introduction of Jacob Lewis, a 1500 meter runner who has run 3:41, was encouraging, but the Grand Canyon graduate transfer didn't have enough on his cross country resume to make us feel comfortable about his chances as a scorer.

And with a massive gap between Tennessee's top-three and their bottom-two scoring spots, their potential for excessive scoring this fall seemed insanely high, especially in larger invitationals.

Earlier this month, The Stride Report was fully prepared to publish our "Just Missed" teams which would have featured Tennessee as our first team out.

But then news struck that the Volunteers had landed one additional transfer.

This time, it was NC State graduate transfer, Nate Kawalec.

If you were to look at Kawalec's cross country resume, you'd likely shrug your shoulders and say, "Does this guy really take Tennessee from TSR #26 to TSR #19?" And that would be a fair question. After all, this is a guy whose his best performance on the grass was a 19th place finish at the 2021 Southeast Regional XC Championships.

In fact, in his two races at the ACC XC Championships, Kawalec never finished in the top-40.

But then the former Wolfpack runner had a breakout spring season, running under 14:00 for 5000 meters four different times, ultimately earned a fantastic new PR of 13:39.

That 13:39 mark is huge as it suggest that Kawalec can be a legitimate high-impact scorer for the Tennessee men later this fall. While a 13:39 PR may not hold the same weight that it once did a few seasons ago, the idea that Kawalec can be a third of fourth scorer for this team brings far stability to the Vols than we were expecting them to have just one week ago.

And with him, the dynamic of this team looks very, very different.

* * *

The combination of Jacobs, Abdalla, Kawalec and Thiessen may be one of the better scoring quadruplets in the NCAA. Jacobs and Abdalla brings All-American scoring prowess while Kawalec and Thiessen are likely top-120ish finishers at the national meet.

So why only TSR #19 for the Tennessee men? Why not higher?

For as good as the Volunteers are through four runners, the uncertainty that lies on their backend is glaring. There could be noticeable drop-off to Tennessee's final scorer later this fall and that gap alone could limit the Vols from reaching their full scoring potential.

Yes, it's true, guys like Jacob Lewis, Canaan Anderson and Tim Thacker have shown promise on the track and could very easily step into that fifth scoring role. Still, it's hard to imagine any of them closing the gap on Thiessen and/or Kawalec by a significant amount.

And even if they do, then Tennessee's margin of error will still be absolute zero. If just one guy has an "off" day, if just one guy gets injured, if just one doesn't translate his track success to the grass, then Tennessee is going to be in a tricky spot.

But let's be clear -- when looking at this Tennessee team, the pros far outweigh the cons.

In the span of 30 days, Sean Carlson has dramatically changed how we view the Volunteers in the NCAA's hierarchy of distance programs. Tennessee has suddenly gone from an afterthought to one of the most talked about teams in the nation.

And while there is still work to be done, the foundation has been laid for an entirely new era of distance running success in Knoxville, Tennessee.

Now it's time to sit back and enjoy the show.