TSR's 2022 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Women): #13 Washington Huskies

Written by Maura Beattie, additional commentary and edits by Garrett Zatlin

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The success of the Washington women this fall will depend on a variety of things.

The Huskies will need to solidify this year's top-seven which is going to have one or two holes from last year's lineup. Certain athletes need to show up a bit more consistently, they need their returning low-stick(s) to deliver better scoring potency and the incoming rookie class needs to have some kind of noticeable impact.

But despite all of that, when you step back and look at this roster, it's hard to imagine a group with so much raw talent not being one of the 15 best cross country teams in the NCAA.

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Throughout the 2021 fall cross country season, the Washington women had some up and down performances at both the team and individual levels.

At their first real test of the season, the Joe Piane Invitational hosted by Notre Dame, Coach Maurica Powell’s athletes had a very respectable showing en route to a 4th place team finish.

Allie Schadler, who has since graduated, led the team with a solid 27th place finish, but Madison Heisterman and Naomi Smith were the main highlights for the Huskies. Heisterman, who is more of a middle distance runner on the track as evidenced by her recent 4:33 mile time, placed well at 33rd overall and was closely followed by Smith in 35th. Anna Gibson, another breakout miler from this past year, also had a solid race, producing a strong 43rd place finish.

That result, while not necessarily jaw-dropping, had a fairly high impact. While the Huskies didn't have a ton of firepower at the front of their lineup, Gibson limited any excessive backend scoring and bridged the gap from Washington's top-three scorers to their fifth scorer.

Veteran Haley Herberg had a tough go-around in her season opener, finishing as Washington’s fifth runner back in 51st. And while Herberg could have been closer to Schadler, she still closed out Washington's scoring fairly quickly.

In the end, the Huskies took down a very strong Minnesota team which turned out to be even stronger as the season progressed. And while they did fall behind the likes of NC State, New Mexico and Alabama, Washington still had plenty to be proud of.

The Huskies would eventually return to the midwest for the iconic Nuttycombe Invitational. But this time, the Washington women struggled to put all of their pieces of puzzle together.

Herberg regrouped after Joe Piane to finish 49th overall and emerge as the team's first scorer. That performance still didn’t match her true potential, but it showed us that she was starting to trend in the right direction.

Naomi Smith would hold her own, finishing in the middle-of-the-pack with a 71st place. However, things started to fall apart for Washington after those two women.

Sophie Cantine and Schadler finished one second apart in 103rd place and 106th place, respectively. Anna Gibson, Julia David-Smith and Madison Heisterman rounded out the team's top-seven at Nuttycombe, but didn’t make much noise in terms of scoring impact.

In the end, the Huskies faltered to a disappointing 15th place team finish, a surprising result considering how strong they were at Joe Piane. The compact scoring that we had seen a few weeks earlier seemed nonexistent and the same could be said for their low-stick scoring potency.

But hey, teams are allowed to have bad days, right?

The PAC-12 XC Championships would be a bit smoother for the Huskies, but not by much. Herberg improved upon her previous results to finish 8th overall, a promising finish which gave the Washington women a fairly strong front-runner.

Unfortunately, after Herberg, gaps began to form.

Cantine held her own with a 21st place finish while Andrea Markezich, who had run very well in the "Open" races at both Joe Piane and Nuttycombe, stepped up to finish 23rd overall while emerging as the team’s third scorer.

However, Washington's top-five time-spread ended up being 45 seconds. Schadler placed 27th while Sophie O'Sullivan was 31st. Former scorers like Smith, Gibson and Heisterman just weren’t there to propel Washington to a top-three finish.

Instead, the Huskies had to settle for 4th place overall, faltering behind Colorado, Utah and Oregon.

Luckily, the West Regional XC Championships was debatably the best race of the season for Washington as they guaranteed themselves a spot to the NCAA XC Championships, finishing runner-up to Stanford.

Schadler and Herberg were a solid duo in 10th place and 11th place, respectively. Heisterman bounced back after not finishing at the PAC-12 XC Championships to be the team's third runner across the line in 20th place. She brought Cantine and Smith along with her in 21st place and 22nd place.

The regional meets aren't always perfect indicators of a team's lineup structure or season-long success, but the pack running that we once saw at Joe Piane was suddenly evident once more.

But if the West Regional XC Championships wasn't Washington's best race of the season, then the NCAA XC Championships most certainly were.

After posting a few modest results throughout most of the fall season, Schadler had a huge race, placing 25th overall to earn All-American honors. Herberg admittedly couldn’t match her PAC-12 or West region performances, fading to 91st, but having a second woman in the top-100 would prove to be valuable.

Cantine would record a very key 102nd place finish to bridge the middle portion of Washington's top-five. Behind her, Heisterman and Smith closed out the scoring fairly quickly by placing 114th and 127th, respectively.

Washington wasn't flawless in Tallahassee, but compared to the rest of their 2021 fall cross country season, this was a great result. They finally found top-level scoring in Schadler, the middle portion of the lineup seemed somewhat reliable and their backend contributors didn't over inflate the team score.

When the points were tallied, the Huskies would walk away with an 11th place team finish.

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With the first meet of the 2022 cross country season coming up on the horizon, the Washington women will boast a lineup that has multiple moving parts. It also doesn't help that both Schadler and Cantine, two of Washington's top-three scorers at the national meet, are also out of eligibility.

But the Huskies' returning veterans have gained more speed, endurance and experience in the past year, making noticeable improvements on the track and flexing newfound talent that is undeniably impressive.

Oh, and their star-studded freshman class isn't half-bad, either.

Let's start this conversation with Haley Herberg, one of the NCAA's more interesting distance runners to analyze.

The Washington standout clearly enjoys running from the front, emerging as an aggressive pace pusher who has produced varied results. In some instances, that approach has been brilliant, although she has also paid for that decision just as often.

If the Husky senior can maintain her early upfront positioning, or wait to make a move until later in certain races, the possibility to finish as an All-American is well within her reach. After all, this is someone who we ranked at TSR #37 in our individual rankings earlier this summer.

After running 15:31 (5k) and earning 7th place All-American honors in the 10k this past spring, Herberg seems primed to be the front-runner that Washington needed for most of last fall and the low-stick that Schadler was at the national meet.

We then come Naomi Smith, the once-young distance talent who has had the luxury of competing at two NCAA XC Championships in her college career thus far.

Her performance at the NCAA Winter XC Championships far exceeded expectations when she finished 53rd, but she didn't replicate that kind of result at any point in the fall.

Seeing Smith post middle-of-the-pack results throughout last fall was fine and placing 127th at the NCAA XC Championships wasn't necessarily terrible. Still, we're confident that her scoring value can be (and will be) higher in 2022.

Regardless, this is someone who could absolutely be the second scorer for the Huskies this fall. She just needs to replicate her best performances on a more consistent basis, something that could certainly come with age now that she's in her third year of NCAA competition.

We then come to Anna Gibson and Madison Heisterman who are two similar runners. Both women were dominant over the middle distance events this past winter and spring, but also posted some respectable results on the cross country course.

When comparing their 800 meter and 1500 meter times, Gibson boasts marks of 2:04 (800) and 4:13 (1500) while Heisterman has run 2:05 (800) and 4:14 (1500). After competing in Washington's top-seven last fall, the foundation is already there for these two women to be meaningful contributors to this team once again in 2022.

However, if Gibson and Heisterman each find a way to fully translate their recent track success to the cross country course, then the Huskies would greatly benefit from the fewer points. At their best, these women bring sneaky-good scoring value, something we got a glimpse of Joe Piane last fall.

Of course, trying to replicate those results on a more consistent basis will be the biggest challenge at hand.

We now come to third-year talent Sophie O’Sullivan who elevated her fitness to become a top-seven runner for Washington late last fall. Her best performance in 2021 was a modest 31st place finish at the PAC-12 XC Championships, emerging as the team's fifth scorer at that meet.

O'Sullivan still has work to do. She'll need to make improvements on last year's cross country results in order to have a noticeable impact on this team in 2022.

However, after running 4:17 for 1500 meters this past spring, it seems fair to suggest that this Aussie standout could bring more than just respectable depth to the Seattle-based women over the next few months.

And what about Andrea Markezich? Julia David-Smith? Camila David-Smith? Kirstie Rae? Those women either showed promise on the grass last fall, posted respectable marks on the track or didn't even have a chance to compete throughout last year.

Markezich, for instance, was 23rd at the PAC-12 XC Championships and posted a very encouraging time of 33:42 over 10,000 meters this past spring.

Camila David-Smith made a few appearances in Washington's varsity cross country lineup last fall, but was arguably better on the track, running 16:25 (5k) and 34:14 (10k).

Camila's sister, Julia David-Smith, was 86th at Joe Piane and ran 4:19 for 1500 meters last spring as just a freshman.

Kirstie Rae was a prep star in New Zealand, running 9:38 (3k) and 16:44 (5k) while thriving in U20 and junior championship races. She was redshirted throughout the entirety of last year.

At this point in our analysis, you can see why there should be plenty of optimism surrounding this Washington program. While they do lose a few key scorers from last year, many of these returners should limit those scoring losses based on projected improvements.

And frankly, if everyone on this team simply shows more consistency in terms of replicating their best performances from last fall, then a top-15 ranking seems fairly reasonable.

There is, however, one final caveat that could make the Washington a VERY scary team in the fall of 2022. I am, of course, talking about their incoming group of freshmen.

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Let's start our rookie conversation by highlighting Chloe Foerster, arguably the best Washington distance recruit from the Class of 2022.

The Oregon native has flexed some stellar speed despite being so young, running 2:05 for 800 meters and an incredible 4:38 mark for 1600 meters on the track. And here's the thing -- Foerster has proven that her speed can translate to the cross country course. She does, after all, own a 16:45 (5k) personal best.

Foerster also has experience competing on the national stage between cross country and track. During the 2021 fall season, she was 8th at the Garmin RunningLane XC National Championships. And on the oval, she won a handful of Oregon state titles while also competing at both the Arcadia Invitational and the Brooks PR Invite.

Foerster’s resume is fairly similar to that of Gibson’s, Heisterman’s and O’Sullivan’s. All four women will need to discover ways to build endurance on top of their speed. However, the recent Jesuit High School graduate may have already proven that she can do it the most effectively.

Of course, Foerster is just one of numerous youngsters who could be high-impact scorers for Washington later this fall.

Also joining the Huskies later this year is Josephine Welin. The Illinois native brings an elite distance running resume to the Huskies' program with her outstanding marks 4:42 (1600), 10:03 (3200) and 16:26 (three-miles XC).

Welin is one of those sneaky-good runners who, over the longer distances, could make an immediate impact for this team. While she didn't have a great showing at the Garmin RunningLane XC National Championships, this is still someone who won an Illinois state cross country title last fall and who placed 10th at the XC Town USA Meet of Championships during the pandemic-altered 2020 cross country season.

This is someone who could very much be in UW's top-seven.

We then come to Ella Borsheim and Sophia Nordenholz, two final recruits who could absolutely be varsity contributors for the Huskies later this fall, maybe even in a few weeks time.

Borsheim brings with her a monster 10:12 (3200) personal best and tons of experience competing on the high school cross country national stage. Her results at the Foot Locker XC Championships and NXN Championships might not be head-turning, but those results came well before this Washington native began to breakout on the track.

If her results on the oval are any indication, then Borsheim could be just as impactful as someone like Welin or Foerster this fall.

And then there is Nordenholz...how can you not consider her a potential scorer for Washington in 2022?

The incoming freshman has run 10:05 in the 3200 meters and 16:46 for 5000 meters on the cross country course. She knows what it takes to win races in the dominant state of California both on the track and grass.

Her 2021 accolades, which includes a victory at the CIF XC Championships and a 9th place finish at the Foot Locker XC National Championships, are extremely promising for Nordenholz heading into her first college season.

We just listed four women who could be varsity contributors, and even scorers, on almost any Division One cross country team in the NCAA. The unreal talent that each of these women have shown at the high school level, paired with the crazy-high upside that usually comes with youth, has us feeling optimistic about Washington in 2022.

If just one of these rookies emerges as a star low-stick later this fall, then our TSR #13 ranking may end up being a bit too low for these Huskies.

* * *

Here's the thing with Washington: We know that they can be good, even really good, later this fall. This team is way too deep and way too proven to not be nationally competitive in 2022.

Is Washington a perfect program this fall? No, maybe not. They lose their lone All-American from last fall, are not expected to return their third scorer from the national meet, battled a few inconsistencies last fall and might rely heavily on true freshmen later this season.

But sometimes talent trumps everything else.

And luckily for the Huskies, they have plenty of talent.