TSR's 2022 D3 XC Top 10 Team Rankings (Women): Update #1

TSR Collaboration
Oct 10, 2022
8 min read

Written by Kevin Fischer & Hannah Thorn, additional edits and commentary by Garrett Zatlin

NOTE: Theses rankings are based on how a team fared throughout the entirety of a season, not just how they run at the NCAA XC Championships.

KEY

(Unranked):

Was not ranked in our last update.

(#/#):

First number indicates how much the team has moved in the rankings.

The second number indicates where the team was ranked in our last update.

10. Saint Olaf Oles (Unranked)

After a tight loss to a good Carleton team (at home) in mid-September, the St. Olaf women got their revenge at the Blugold Invite, beating the Knights by 24 points as well as hosts UW-Eau Claire by 38 points.

The Oles don’t have a low-stick superstar, but they have a tight pack of very solid talents. As expected, they are usually led by Sofia Carlson, but they are the type of team where anyone could step up on any day.

Case in point: In the three meets that they have competed in so far, their top-five time-spreads have finished with phenomenal margins of 38 seconds, 17 seconds and 26 seconds. That is the type of pack-running that can take a program to the next level, and so far it looks like it has lifted St. Olaf.

We will learn more about this group next week when they face their biggest test of the season at the Connecticut College Invitational.

9. UW-La Crosse Eagles (Unranked)

UW-La Crosse performed fairly well at Pre-Nationals, finishing just behind MIT in 3rd place overall. This race, and their solid day at the Griak Invitational, were enough for the Eagles to jump into a top-10 spot in our rankings.

However, we still have a couple of concerns stemming from last weekend.

UW-La Crosse teams have developed a reputation for team-centric running and low time-spreads. However, despite a great top-four scoring group, the gap between the fourth and fifth scorers at Pre-Nationals was uncharacteristically large and a bit worrying.

This group is showing flashes of exciting potentia. They can certainly be amongst the best team's in the nation, but they will have to fix the backend of their scoring positions before that happens.

If Jenna Lovejoy, Madelynn McIntrye or even Kimberly Carviou can make a jump, then the Eagles will be in business as a very fun team to watch.

8. MIT Engineers (Unranked)

Despite the loss of standout front-runner Izzi Gengaro, the MIT women have looked very dangerous so far this fall.

We have seen big improvements from by Einat Gavish this year whose steeplechase success from the spring is translating smoothly to the grass. Other key names like Anna Haddad, Cristina Crow and Gillan Roeder have also showcased encouraging progress.

The highest cross country national meet finish amongst these four names is 126th place, but they have all reached a new level to will the Engineers to a 2nd place Pre-Nationals finish earlier this season.

It is also worth noting that 2021 All-American, Olivia Rosenstein, is currently on the Engineers' roster, but we have not seen her in action in almost a year. There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding Rosenstein, but in the best-case scenario where she comes back and reaches her 2021 level, then the MIT will get a huge boost from that.

And if that happens, then a TSR #8 ranking may not be generous enough for this team.

7. Washington U. Bears (-1 / 6)

Last week, we talked in our D3 Roundtable article about Washington U.’s impressive display of depth at the Dan Huston Invitational.

Still, that bares repeating: This team is DEEP.

The women from Saint Louis put nine runners in the top-15 of a field that included our TSR #1 group, Wartburg. Not only that, but all nine of those women went under 23 minutes for 6000 meters.

And while we do place so much emphasis on their depth, the Bears also have some star power in their varsity lineup.

Emily Konkus has been exceptional, as have Katie Rector and Lindsay Ott. Not only that, but we haven’t seen Ella Behrens run yet, either! With credentials of a 17:02 (5k) and a 115th place national meet finish in 2021, she has the ability to play a big scoring role for a team that is already nationally competitive.

6. Amherst Mammoths (+4 / 10)

Amherst makes the largest jump in our rankings this week as they have been very impressive so far this fall. The result that had everyone's head turning was their win at the Purple Valley XC Classic over Williams.

Part of the reason why they are so much better than we thought they would be is due to the breakout of Mary Kate McGranahan. At the Purple Valley XC Classic, she took the overall win by over 25 seconds! We expected Sophie Wolmer to lead this group, but it looks like McGranahan will be, at the very least, a co-low-stick for the Mammoths.

Behind McGranahan and Wolmer are true freshmen Daphne Theiler, Allison Lounsbury and sophomore Sylvan Wold. That young talent can certainly learn from veterans like McGranhan and Wolmer, but it's their youth-based upside that we have often highlighted at TSR that make this team a fringe podium contender.

If that backend group continues to develop, and someone has a breakout season in the latter-half of these fall months, then the Amherst women could end up being so much better than some people realize.

5. Claremont-Mudd-Scripps Athenas (-1 / 4)

Claremont-Mudd-Scripps had their first major meet at the 2022 cross country season at Paul Short where they absolutely dominated in the "Brown" race, winning by over 100 points.

Natalie Bitetti continues to lead the Athenas as their star low-stick with Meredith Bloss following closely behind. Annika Kimme, Angela Gushue and Elle Marsyla are a solid supporting cast in terms of scoring as they are often separated by less than 30 seconds.

That's a very encouraging development as they give the CMS women a compact and reliable backend group which allows their star front-runners to capitalize on their scoring potency.

Admittedly, the Athenas could run into trouble if someone in that top-five has an "off" day. There is a fairly substantial drop-off from their top-five scorers to their bottom-two supporting runners. We saw that vulnerability last year at the NCAA XC Championships.

CMS is running on razor-thin margins where they can’t afford for one of their top-five runners to have a bad day. They will work to shore up that gap from now until November, but when looking at the scorers who they do have, it's hard to dislike anything that those women bring to the table.

4. Johns Hopkins Blue Jays (-1 / 3)

As we predicted in our preseason rankings, Alex Ross has been the true star of this Johns Hopkins team. She was the top D3 runner at the loaded MSU Spartan Invitational, finishing in a time of 21:33.

And the catch? She is only getting better.

At Paul Short, she ran a monster mark of 20:33 in the "Gold" race, placing 67th in a very sneaky-deep field.

Behind Ross is teammate Sara Stephenson who has been a very strong secondary scorer for the Blue Jays this season (as expected) Her first 6k race this year was at the MSU Spartan Invitational where she placed 15th and her 89th place finish at Paul Short gives this team a very nice scoring spark at the front of their lineup.

Sydney Fridel, Vivinia Li and Cooper Brotherton round out the Blue Jays' top-five. Vi and Brotherton are both freshmen so getting them as much experience and fitness as possible before November will be key to the Blue Jays' success in the postseason.

And yes, this team does drop in our rankings by just one spots, but that's only because of how well other programs have performed recently. It's not so much based on anything that Johns Hopkins has done.

3. U. of Chicago Maroons (+1 / 4)

U. of Chicago has already faced quite a few of our top-10 teams and has come out on top each time. At the Gil Dodds Invitational, they beat Washington U. for a major statement win and then, at the D3 National Preview, they beat two our newly-ranked programs, MIT and UW-La Crosse, both fairly handily.

The Maroons have a wicked-strong top-five with no one sticking out as the overall low-stick...mainly because they all crowd the upper portion of the fields that they are in.

Lucy Groothuis, Anna Koenig-Ziesler and Frances Schaeffler all finished within three seconds of each other at the D3 National Preview. And at Gil Dodds, that time-spread was 13 seconds. They are often followed closely by Katarina Birimac, Caitlin Jorgensen and Sophie Tedesco, showcasing a beautiful balance of firepower and sheer depth.

The team is looking dangerous heading into the UAA XC Championships in three weeks. Not just because they have run so well this fall, but because we haven't even seen Claudia Harnett this season!

If Harnett returns to the grass in 2022, then the Maroons look extremely scary.

2. SUNY Geneseo Knights (0 / 2)

SUNY Geneseo has continued to be a powerhouse on the east coast.

This team is led by Kathleen McCarey, but their true strength and scoring value lies in their supporting pack. The cast of Windsor Ardner, Sierra Doody, Marcie Hogan, Lily Fowler-Conner, Rachel Hirschkind and Erin Eivers have done a great job running together this year.

And frankly, many of those women still have room to be even better.

Most recently, at the SUNY Geneseo Mike Woods Invitational, we saw the Knights earn a perfect score over the likes of Dickinson, Case Western and Middlebury. And not only that, if you take out McCarey of the results, then the Geneseo women had their 2-3-4-5-6 runners separated by only 36 seconds!

Not only that, but Lilly Fowler-Conner and Gabriella McCarthy weren't far behind despite being the team's seventh and eighth runners that weekend.

This team could find a lot of success in larger fields like at the regional and national meets, mainly because their scorers run so close together and limit any excessive scoring.

1. Wartburg Knights (0 / 1)

Our TSR #1 ranked team before the season started, Wartburg has shown us that they are still in elite company.

Aubrie Fisher has continued to lead the Knights this fall, going undefeated against D3 competition through the first few weeks of the season. We have seen her win the John Kurtt and the Dan Huston Invitational as well as finish runner-up to an athlete from Butler at the Redbird Invite.

Unsurprisingly, she is the true leader of this team.

However, what's arguably been the biggest positive for this team so far in 2022 is that Lexi Brown has stepped up to be a viable secondary scoring option.

Brown has placed 3rd at the John Kurtt Invitational, 5th at the Redbird Invite and 2nd at the Dan Hutson Invitational so far this season. Her 21:50 mark at the Redbird Invite was a PR for all of two weeks until she recently broke that time by running 21:38 at Dan Hutson.

It will be interesting to see how she fares in larger crowds, but the Knights should be happy that Brown has taken such a large step forward this year. She could be the key towards Wartburg snagging a national title come November.

If you add to that duo Riley Mayer, Shaelyn Hostager, Ellie Meyer and Natalie Paulson, you have a very strong team which tons of high upside. Frankly, we may not have seen the greatest scoring potential of this team yet.