TSR's 2021 D1 Winter XC Top 50 Individuals (Men): Update #1

The Stride Report has opted to exclude the Ivy League from these rankings as the conference is not expected to compete this winter. The below rankings take performances from this past fall into consideration, but they do not aim to penalize individuals who did not compete.

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KEY

(Unranked):

Was not ranked in our last update.

(#/#):

First number indicates how much the athlete has moved in the rankings.

The second number indicates where the athlete was ranked in our last update.

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50. Stan Niesten, Senior, Portland (-8 / 42)

Niesten does drop in our rankings, but that's more due to the movement of others rather than his own performances. He secured a 2nd place finish alongside his Portland teammates at the low-key Oregon XC Open this past weekend. We'll be waiting until he enters a more competitive field to get a better idea of what Niesten's true capabilities are.

49. Shea Foster, Senior, Southeastern Louisiana (Unranked)

The future Oklahoma State runner solidified his place in NCAA's upper-echelon on the grass this past weekend at the FSU Winter XC Classic. Finishing 7th shows that his improvement on the track has also translated to cross country. The more comfortable he becomes racing at this level, the more dangerous he gets.

48. Jackson Mestler, Senior, Oregon (-1 / 47)

A strong and convincing win at the Oregon XC Open was encouraging, but there's not much to say other than that. We think Mestler is an improved talented compared to where he was during the 2019 cross country season, but we just need to see his true talent in a larger field to give him a more concrete ranking.

47. Alek Parsons, Senior, Stanford (-11 / 36)

The ever-consistent veteran looked strong at the FSU Winter XC Classic. Finishing 12th might not be the most inspiring result, but for someone who consistently peaks during the postseason, it is encouraging to see him in good form early in the season.

Unlike some of those who finished ahead of him this past weekend, Parsons has a great track record of success at the NCAA Championships, so it would be shocking if Parsons wasn’t in the All-American picture once again this season.

46. Alec Hornecker, Senior, Colorado (-5 / 41)

After a tough race at the Oklahoma State Invitational, it was great to see Hornecker run well at the FSU Winter XC Classic, finishing 8th. He doesn’t need to lead this Colorado team, but he is an essential part of their lineup. When he is running well, the Buffaloes run well.

With his experience from last year and his most recent performance, we think the Colorado veteran can earn another All-American honor. Yes, he did drop in our rankings, but that's more because others ran exceptionally well and because Hornecker matched expectations.

45. Ben Veatch, Senior, Indiana (-15 / 30)

An 8th place finish at the BIG 10 XC Championships is far from bad, but Veatch is someone who probably could have been in the conversation to finish as a top-three individual. He's still a supremely talented distance runner, and Indiana's pack-running strategy worked wonders for them two weekends ago.

Still, that didn't necessarily help Veatch's stock in our individual rankings.

44. Charles Hicks, Rs. Freshman, Stanford (Unranked)

In his first race for Stanford on the grass, Hicks validated his impressive track times from last indoor season. Finishing 6th at the FSU Winter XC Classic against a deep field proves that the redshirt freshman is ready to contribute to the Cardinal lineup now.

How he will line up against a bigger field will be interesting to watch, but Hicks has been beating expectations throughout his time at Stanford. If he was able to do that in the first cross country race of his collegiate career, what can he do now that he has shaken off the rust?

43. Scott Beattie, Senior, Tulsa (Unranked)

We knew that Tulsa had two star low-sticks in Patrick Dever and Peter Lynch, but the recent rise of Scott Beattie is incredibly exciting if you're a fan of the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes. The senior finished runner-up at the American XC Championships this past weekend, fending off a top aerobic talent in Aaron Bienenfeld in the latter stages of the race.

If Beattie can continue to post those kind of performances, then he may be the third All-American candidate that Tulsa needs to better solidify themselves as podium contenders this winter.

42. Jackson Sharp, Sophomore, Wisconsin (Unranked)

Sharp was one of the few members of Wisconsin’s projected top-five to run at the BIG 10 XC Championships and he made the most of that opportunity by finishing 4th overall. It seemed like Sharp had taken a leap forward in fitness since the pandemic started and his finish at the BIG 10 Championships shows us that he is the low-stick that his 13:44 (5k) from December suggests that he can be.

41. Rowan Ellenberg, Rs. Freshman, Wisconsin (Unranked)

It's absolutely crazy that Wisconsin can just produce low-stick talents out of seemingly nowhere. The redshirt freshman made a major introduction to the rest of the NCAA the other weekend when he finished an incredible 3rd place at the BIG 10 XC Championships.

It's hard to really get a gauge of just how good Ellenberg is after one monumental performance and a few modest track results, but his finish was too good ignore. He absolutely deserves a spot in our individual rankings.

40. Blaise Ferro, Senior, Northern Arizona (+5 / 45)

One of the many NAU runners in our rankings, Ferro put together a fantastic run at the Silver State Collegiate Challenge, finishing 7th overall and beating top runners like Yared Nuguse, Danny Kilrea and Clayson Shumway.

He might not get the headlines like some of his other teammates, but Ferro has been a solid part of the Lumberjacks lineup for the last year. When he's at 100% and completely healthy, he can run like that on a consistent basis.

39. Ehab El-Sandali, Senior, Iona (-5 / 34)

Has not yet raced this year. Simply drops in our rankings due to performances from others.

38. Brandon Garnica, Rs. Junior, BYU (Unranked)

That was one heck of a rebound race from Brandon Garnica! After struggling at the Oklahoma State Invitational last fall, the BYU runner bounced back at the Silver State XC Challenge last week, finished 6th overall and taking down some talented, highly-ranked names in the process.

Now, admittedly, we're holding Garnica back in our rankings mainly because of his performance at the OSU Invitational. It wasn't great and it somewhat balances out his result in Las Vegas.

Even so, the Cougars from Provo, Utah should be very encouraged that they might have another low-stick who can help them contend with Northern Arizona.

37. Jonathan Davis, Senior, Illinois (Unranked)

He’s back! The Illinois senior put together a terrific performance at the BIG 10 XC Championships the other weekend, finishing 2nd overall and nearly taking home the win in dramatic fashion.

After George Kusche had gapped the field, Davis made a hard charge to catch him in the final moments. Though he came up just short, it was great to see the talented runner back in top form and seemingly ready to challenge for an All-American spot this year.

We think he can be ranked even higher, but we need to see one more big performance that would further solidify Davis' comeback campaign.

36. Cole Sprout, Freshman, Stanford (Unranked)

Gosh, what a collegiate debut from Cole Sprout. We were very high on the Stanford rookie, but we didn't think he would throw down a 5th place finish in a loaded field at the Florida State Winter XC Classic.

Sprout was sometimes (unfairly) overshadowed by the success of Nico Young during his high school days. However, everything we saw from him suggested that he was going to be this good -- we just didn't think it was going to happen immediately.

Much like teammate Zofia Dudek on the women's side, Sprout's potential upside far outweighs his collegiate inexperience (for now).

35. Adriaan Wildschutt, Junior, Florida State (Unranked)

In his first race in a Seminole uniform, Wildschutt looked like the front-runner that the headlines expected him to be. Finishing 3rd at the FSU Winter XC Classic against a strong field is an encouraging result and points to Wildschutt being the low-stick for a Florida State team that is steadily improving.

However, we still need to see if he can do this on a consistent basis. We also need to see if he can replicate this performance in a championship setting (assuming he qualifies for the national meet). That said, this was a big step in the right direction for Wildschutt as this was probably the best he has ever performed in a field of this caliber.

34. Theo Quax, Rs. Sophomore, Northern Arizona (-1 / 33)

Still no races from Theo Quax. We may have to reevaluate his spot in our rankings if we don't see him race the next time we post our an update to our rankings.

33. Dylan Jacobs, Rs. Sophomore, Notre Dame (-15 / 18)

Really tough day for Jacobs at the Silver State XC Challenge as he faltered to 23rd place overall. The 2019 All-American is clearly more talented than what we saw from him last week and his performance at the ACC XC Championships this past fall supports that assertion.

We had to drop him in our rankings, but given how surprising that performance was, we would expect the Notre Dame ace to have a rebound performance in the future.

32. Clayson Shumway, Senior, BYU (-6 / 26)

Shumway has been a perfect scorer for BYU this year behind their top two of Mantz and Clinger. With his 10th place finish at the Silver State Collegiate Challenge, the senior performed just as expected and gave BYU their fourth runner within the top-10.

He might not have the potential to be a top-20 runner at Nationals, but he is a relatively safe bet to finish as an All-American given his recent performances and past experience.

31. Curt Eckstein, Senior, Purdue (-9 / 22)

It was not the best day for the Boilermakers at the BIG 10 XC Championships, but Eckstein held up as a solid low-stick for his team, earning a 5th place finish overall. That wasn't the most incredible result ever, but it was still a solid showing. Finishing within the top-five of any Power Five conference meet deserves plenty of respect.

The senior has been one of the more consistent runners in the BIG 10 for numerous seasons now and he still looks like can earn an All-American finish.

30. Alex Masai, Senior, Hofstra (+1 / 31)

Has not yet raced this year.

29. Zach Facioni, Junior, Wake Forest (+9 / 38)

The Aussie ace has returned to the 'States and has not skipped a beat. His 4th place run at the FSU Winter XC Classic showed us that he is an even stronger low-stick compared to the last time we saw him. He finally has a regular season performance that matches his incredible results at the ACC Championships and that gives him the boost into the upper-portion of our rankings.

With Wake Forest probably set up to qualify for NCAA’s for the first time in Facioni’s career, it will be a great test for the junior as he gets the opportunity to go head-to-head with every top runner in the country.

28. Cole Bullock, Sophomore, Ole Miss (0 / 28)

Has not raced on the grass this winter. Ran 8:00 for 3000 meters earlier this season.

27. Rohann Asfaw, Junior, Virginia (+2 / 29)

Has not raced on the grass this winter.

26. Johnjack Millar, Senior, Iona (-1 / 25)

Has not yet raced this year.

25. Kashon Harrison, Sophomore, Colorado (-2 / 23)

Has not yet raced this year.

24. Talon Hull, Senior, Washington (Unranked)

What a huge day for Talon Hull at the Silver State XC Challenge! After a huge 2018 cross country season where he nearly upset Grant Fisher for the PAC-12 title, Hull seemed to struggle during the fall of 2019 and was taken out of the national meet for precautionary (injury) reasons.

Luckily, he has seemingly rebounded, this time with a 3rd place finish in Las Vegas where he took down some of the top individual talents in the country. We'll need to see what else he does later this year, but that was the encouraging performance that we're sure Washington was looking for in their ace.

23. Devin Meyrer, Senior, Michigan (+1 / 24)

Has not yet raced on the grass this year.

22. Waleed Suliman, Senior, Ole Miss (-1 / 21)

Has not raced on the grass this winter. Posted promising 3k result of 7:54 earlier this season.

21. Mario Garcia Romo, Junior, Ole Miss (+6 / 27)

The Ole Miss junior had a phenomenal cross country season this past fall, winning multiple races and challenging some highly-ranked distance talents. However, his competition was essentially against his own teammates and the Arkansas men. As a result, we had difficulty figuring out just how good he was relative to the NCAA's best runners.

Of course, a 7:48 for 3000 meters the other weekend evens the playing field and puts into context his current fitness. We think he is solidly better than Suliman at this point and he now has the credentials to back that up.

20. Drew Bosley, Sophomore, Northern Arizona (0 / 20)

Has not yet raced on the grass this winter.

19. Cole Hocker, Sophomore, Oregon (0 / 19)

Has not raced on the grass this year. A recent report from DyeStat suggests that Oregon may go all-in for the indoor national meet later this year.

18. James Mwaura, Junior, Gonzaga (-1 / 17)

Has not yet raced this year.

17. Ian Shanklin, Senior, NC State (-2 / 15)

Has not raced on the grass this winter.

16. Yared Nuguse, Senior, Notre Dame (-11 / 5)

After a series of outstanding results, Nuguse finally had a bit of an "off" day as he finished 8th at the Silver State XC Challenge. Running against the best teams in the country, the quick pace seemed to be a bit much for the Fighting Irish star who had once dictated the front of the pack at the ACC Championships this past fall.

He still owns the best kick in NCAA, but after this race, it is hard to see him sticking with the top pack in order to cash-in on the final stretch.

15. Peter Lynch, Senior, Tulsa (-6 / 9)

One member of Tulsa’s dynamic duo from the 2019 season finished 4th this past weekend at the American Conference XC Championships, losing only to Aaron Bienenfeld and teammates Patrick Dever and Scott Beattie.

We might have expected Lynch to challenge Dever for the individual title, but his 4th place finish in a top-heavy field is far from bad. Bienenfeld is a top talent, Dever is a proven star and Beattie probably had the best race of his career.

Lynch drops in our rankings, but don't read too heavily into his recent result.

14. Athanas Kioko, Senior, Campbell (0 / 14)

Has not yet raced on the grass this year.

13. Abdi Nur, Rs. Sophomore, Northern Arizona (-1 / 12)

Nur continues to be a consistent presence at the front of NAU’s lineup. Without several scorers, he stepped up at the Silver State Collegiate Challenge to finish 5th overall and was the second Lumberjack to cross the line.

His consistency and ability to run at the front of the pack for the majority of most races make him a key member of NAU’s low-stick group.

12. Amon Kemboi, Senior, Arkansas (-1 / 11)

Has not raced on the grass this winter.

11. Morgan Beadlescomb, Senior, Michigan State (-4 / 7)

After an unexciting 4:13 season opener in the mile, we expected to see Beadlescomb at the BIG 10 XC Championships...but we never did. We're not sure what his future plans are for cross country. Could he race individually in a cross country race like Esther Gitahi did for Alabama on the women's side? We're hoping that he's healthy, but if still hasn't raced by the time we have our next update, it may be time to remove him from our rankings.

10. Eduardo Herrera, Senior, Colorado (+6 / 16)

Another race, another huge performance from Eduardo Herrera. The Buffalo veteran has always been a consistent scorer for this team, but this year, he looks like a legitimate low-stick.

Finishing 2nd to Wesley Kiptoo at the FSU Winter XC Classic was an impressive result that saw him easily beat All-American contenders such as Adriaan Wildschutt and Zach Facioni. After years of respectable, but not amazing, finishes at the NCAA Championships, it looks like Herrera could earn his first top-10 result at the national meet in March.

9. George Kusche, Junior, Nebraska (+4 / 13)

In his first race for the Cornhuskers in almost a year, Kusche picked up right where he left off. After finishing 2nd to Ollie Hoare at the BIG 10 XC Championships in 2019, the Nebraska star fianlly took home the title in 2021.

Kusche looked poised throughout the race and made a big move to separate himself from the rest of the field before holding off a kick from Jonathan Davis. It will be interesting to see him in a field against more stars, but his strong kick is going to move him up several places in the last 100 meters at Stillwater.

8. Patrick Dever, Senior, Tulsa (+2 / 10)

A huge win from Patrick Dever this past weekend was enough to solidify his top spot in our rankings. The Tulsa senior pulled away from teammates Scott Beattie and Aaron Bienenfeld in the latter portions of the American XC Championships, giving him the individual title. It was an impressive display of strength as he simply out-ran some experienced and accomplished competition.

7. Isai Rodriguez, Senior, Oklahoma State (+1 / 6)

Has not raced on the grass this winter.

6. Casey Clinger, Rs. Sophomore, BYU (+2 / 8)

A 4th place finish at the Silver State XC Challenge seems to be about right for Clinger when you consider who finished ahead of him. We would have liked to see him finish ahead of Talon Hull, but pairing this race with his performance at the Oklahoma State Invitational from this past fall was enough to give him our TSR #6 spot.

It also helped that Nuguse and Beadlescomb had drops in our rankings which ultimately shifted Clinger down to a better spot.

5. Nico Young, Freshman, Northern Arizona (+34 / 39)

Young announced his arrival on the NCAA cross country scene with a bang by nearly beating the top returner from last year’s National Championship. Young's surprising willingness to push the pace (against a guy like Mantz no less) is just as potent at the collegiate level as it was in high school.

The Silver State Collegiate Challenge course looked flat and quick and the new Lumberjack took full advantage of it, running a blistering time of 22:52 for 8000 meters. He may not have gotten the win, but pushing the pace against a title contender who also likes to push the pace shows that Young has no fear when ties up his spikes.

4. Cooper Teare, Senior, Oregon (0 / 4)

Has not raced on the grass this year. A recent report from DyeStat suggests that Oregon may go all-in for the indoor national meet later this year.

3. Conner Mantz, Senior, BYU (-1 / 2)

In one of the most exciting individual cross country races we have seen this year, Mantz took down Nico Young at the Silver State Collegiate Challenge. The freshman from NAU pushed the pace, but Mantz responded before surging to the lead in the latter stages.

It was surprising to see Young so close to Mantz at this point in each of their careers, but I think it shows just how special the new Lumberjack is. The BYU senior’s finish and his ability to hang at any pace is why he remains as one of the true favorites to take home the NCAA title in Stillwater.

2. Wesley Kiptoo, Junior, Iowa State (+1 / 3)

Another field loaded with top distance talents, another meet where Wesley Kiptoo absolutely dominates his competition. Mantz could certainly be argued for our TSR #2 spot, but Kiptoo is dusting highly accomplished competition like it's nothing. Running 22:48 for 8000 meters and beating a top name in Eduardo Herrera by 15 seconds is wildly impressive.

1. Luis Grijalva, Senior, Northern Arizona (0 / 1)

Has not yet raced during the winter cross country season. He did, however, take down Mantz at the Oklahoma State Invitational this past fall.

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ADDED

Talon Hull (Washington)

Shea Foster (Southeastern Louisiana)

Brandon Garnica (BYU)

Adriaan Wildschutt (Florida State)

Cole Sprout (Stanford)

Charles Hicks (Stanford)

Rowan Ellenberg (Wisconsin)

Scott Beattie (Tulsa)

Jackson Sharp (Wisconsin)

Jonathan Davis (Illinois)

KICKED OFF

Festus Lagat (Iowa State)

Aaron Bienenfeld (Cincnnati)

Victor Shitsama (Oklahoma State)

Alex Maier (Oklahoma State)

Christian Allen (Weber State)

Paul Arrendondo (Charlotte)

Jack Aho (Michigan)

Brodey Hasty (Northern Arizona)

Brody Smith (Purdue)

Ezekiel Kibichii (Iowa State)

JUST MISSED (in no particular order)

List may be longer than usual as we attempt not to penalize athletes for not running and aim to reward athletes who ran well this past fall (and so far this winter).

• Carter Coughlin (Wake Forest)

• Jack Meijer (Wisconsin)

• Barry Keane (Butler)

• Simon Bedard (Butler)

• Ed Goddard (Iona)

• Ryan Raff (Northern Arizona)

• Paul Stafford (Florida State)

• Nickolas Scudder (Charlotte)

• James Sugira (Eastern Kentucky)

• Camren Todd (Utah State)

• Evert Silva (Portland)

• Haftu Knight (Texas)

• Olin Hacker (Wisconsin)

• Danny Kilrea (Notre Dame)

• Paul Arrendondo (Charlotte)

• Jack Aho (Michigan)

• Brodey Hasty (Northern Arizona)

• Brody Smith (Purdue)

• Ezekiel Kibichii (Iowa State)

• Festus Lagat (Iowa State)

• Aaron Bienenfeld (Cincnnati)

• Victor Shitsama (Oklahoma State)

• Alex Maier (Oklahoma State)

• Karl Thiessen (Tennessee)

HONORABLE MENTIONS (in no particular order)

• Gilbert Boit (Arkansas)

• Christian Allen (Weber State)

• Jacob Choge (Middle Tennessee State)

• Chris Theodore (Duke)

• Thomas Pollard (Iowa State)

• Mitchell Day (Iowa State)

• Taylor Dillon (Wake Forest)

• Sam Gilman (Air Force)

• Peter Morris (Virginia)

• Jonathan Velasco (Wake Forest)

• Charlie Wheeler (Wisconsin)

• James Uhlenberg (Michigan State0

• Ryan Ford (Tennessee-Martin)

• Matt Young (Arkansas)

• Shuaib Aljabaly (Wisconsin)

• Joe Bistritz (NC State)

• Jack O'Leary (Iona)

• Josh Phillips (Villanova)

• Sam Bowers (Georgia)

• Takieddine Hedeilli (Texas Tech)

• Jacob McLeod (Arkansas)

• Luke Meade (Arkansas)

• Kieran Wood (Missouri)

• Amir Ado (Washington State)

• Ivo Balabanov (California Baptist)

• Ryan Smeeton (Oklahoma State)

Notes

- N/A