TSR's 2021 D1 Winter XC Top 25 Teams (Men): Update #1

TSR Collaboration
Feb 8, 2021
12 min read

Updated: Feb 9, 2021

The below rankings take performances from this past fall into consideration, but they do not aim to penalize teams that did not compete last fall. The same can be said for teams that ran last fall, but are not racing in cross country this winter (until the NCAA Championships).

KEY

(Unranked):

Was not ranked in our last update.

(#/#):

First number indicates how much the team has moved in the rankings.

The second number indicates where the team was ranked in our last update.

25. Duke Blue Devils (Unranked)

The Blue Devils put together a solid race at the FSU Winter XC Classic, finishing 6th amongst a field of strong national contenders. Chris Theodore was a pleasant surprise as he led Duke with his 13th place run. Typical front-runner CJ Ambrosio also had a solid effort, crossing the line in 25th.

Duke's depth was not great, but in a field where many of these teams struggled with their own backend scorers, the Blue Devils were able to keep things competitive. Josh Romine earned a solid 36th place finish while their other two scorers finishing outside of the top-50.

It is hard to say how this team will hold up in a larger field with teams that have less weaknesses at the backend of their top-five. Still, this was the Blue Devils' first race of the winter cross country season and they proved that they belong amongst the best in the country.

24. Air Force Falcons (Unranked)

The Air Force men were a pleasant surprise at the Silver State XC Challenge, finishing 5th overall. They were only 12 points behind Notre Dame and were well ahead of both Weber State and Boise State.

Sam Gilman placing 12th gave this team a little bit of an edge in the overall scoring while Alec Schrank put together a solid 17th place showing. With Combs, Maison and Johnson finishing 20-21-22, the Falcons actually had all five of their scorers cross the line before Notre Dame, Washington, Northern Arizona and BYU did.

If we were to run this race again and each of those men were to make incremental improvements on their original results, then you're looking at a team that could have made things very competitive with Notre Dame.

Hypotheticals aren't a good way to adjust someone's ranking, but it does make us realize that Air Force is a much better team than we originally thought they were.

23. Charlotte 49ers (0 / 23)

Nothing new from the 49ers on the grass. They just threw down some impressive 3k times on the indoor track, but when it comes to cross country, they haven't raced since last fall.

22. Gonzaga Bulldogs (0 / 22)

Nothing new from the Gonzaga men. They haven't raced since last winter.

21. Virginia Cavaliers (-3 / 18)

Nothing new from Virginia on the grass. They are likely focused on the indoor oval (for now) after earning a 3rd place finish at the ACC XC Championships this past fall.

20. Indiana Hoosiers (+5 / 25)

The Indiana men were one of the pleasant surprises of the BIG 10 XC Championships. We knew Ben Veatch was good and we figured that Arjun Jha would be a solid secondary scorer as well. However, with so many key names gone, Horter struggling with consistency and mile-centric runners likely filling in scoring roles, we were not at all expecting the Hoosiers to run as well as they did.

Seeing Schadler, Stidham and Gebhardt all have the race of their lives (on the same day) was wildly encouraging. We were not at all expecting to see a complete top-five from Indiana which finished 8-9-10-11-13.

It's still tough to get a gauge as to just how good that performance was given that Michigan didn't race and that Wisconsin was without a handful of their best runners. Even so, Indiana gained a lot of respect from TSR after their impressive showing.

19. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-3 / 16)

Despite not having their best day, Wake Forest still finished 5th at the FSU Winter XC Classic against a very strong field.

Zach Facioni couldn't have returned at a better time as he reappeared at front of the Demon Deacons' lineup with his outstanding 4th place individual performance. Meanwhile, Jonathan Velasco followed up his strong ACC run with a 15th place finish of his own. Carter Coughlin wasn't amazing, but a 23rd place finish was plenty respectable in a field of this caliber.

As for the rest of their lineup? Well, that's where things went south.

Front-runner Jack Tiernan had a rough day, crossing the line in 106th place. Ben Mitchell is another name who can provide this team with some valuable scoring (or depth), but he also fell outside of the top-100. Not only that, but we didn't even see Coen Roberts race this past Friday. None of those men emerged as scorers for this team.

It was far from a perfect day for Wake Forest, but all things considered, they actually ran fairly well. The good news is that there are clear areas of improvement that they can address.

Don't sleep on a team that still has a very high ceiling.

18. Utah State Aggies (Unranked)

Truthfully, we were not very optimistic about Utah State at all coming into this winter season. The Aggies had lost a significant portion of their veteran scorers from their 2019 lineup, leaving this year's group thin on nationally competitive names...or so we thought.

Utah State's recent 4th place finish at the FSU Winter XC Classic validated their season-opening win against Southern Utah. Camren Todd (11th) is a legitimate, real-deal low-stick while the likes of Haydon Cooper (22nd), Caleb Garnica (31st) and Spencer Nelson (34th) have become far better supporting scorers than we ever expected them to be.

This team isn't perfect, but it's hard to dislike a lineup structure that has a true low-stick and a handful of reliable middle-lineup scorers.

17. Portland Pilots (-3 / 14)

In a rare moment, and a sign of the strange times, we saw Portland run (almost) their entire squad in a regular season cross country race (Evert Silva did not race). A completely revamped lineup of new recruits and transfers led the way for this team.

First-year Pilots Stan Niesten, Jacob Klemz, Cathal Doyle and Matt Strangio made up four of Portland’s top-five and finished within the top six at the Oregon XC Classic.

Holdovers from previous years, George Duggan and Riley Osen, finished 5th and 7th, respectively, giving Portland spots 2-3-4-5-6-7 behind Oregon’s Jackson Mestler.

In a small race field where Oregon wasn't running most of their top guys, it's admittedly hard to judge these results. Still, it looks like the Pilots have plenty of depth with 27 seconds separating their first six runners.

Also, yes, we know we dropped Portland three spots from their original ranking. That wasn't intentional, but big performances from Washington, Stanford and Wisconsin was enough to put them ahead of the Pilots and therefore push them back to no fault of their own.

16. Ole Miss Rebels (-3 / 13)

Nothing new from Ole Miss on the grass. They are likely focused on the indoor oval (for now) after earning a runner-up finish at the SEC XC Championships this past fall.

And yes, we know we dropped Ole Miss three spots from their original ranking. That wasn't intentional, but big performances from Washington, Stanford and Wisconsin was enough to put them ahead of the Rebels and therefore push them back to no fault of their own.

15. NC State Wolfpack (-3 / 12)

Nothing new from NC State on the grass. They are likely focused on the indoor oval (for now) after earning a runner-up finish at the ACC XC Championships this past fall.

And yes, we know we dropped NC State three spots from their original ranking. That wasn't intentional, but big performances from Washington, Stanford and Wisconsin was enough to put them ahead of the Wolfpack and therefore push them back to no fault of their own.

14. Washington Huskies (+5 / 19)

The Washington men had a very encouraging performance at the Silver State XC Challenge. There was plenty of uncertainty surrounding what their varsity lineup was going to look like this winter, but generally speaking, it wasn't too different than the team that we saw in 2019.

Talon Hull looks like he's back at the top of his game after securing a huge 3rd place finish last week. With Houser (13th), Slenning (16th) and Green (19th) solidifying the middle portion of this lineup, and Waskom (25th) not running any worse than the fifth scorers for other teams, the Huskies ultimately finished 3rd as a team and shockingly took down the Notre Dame men.

Now, admittedly, Proctor still doesn't look like his 2018 All-American form and from a scoring potency perspective, that may hold back Washington from entering the next tier of these rankings.

Even so, this team just looked flat-out better compared to anything we saw from them in 2019.

13. Michigan Wolverines (-2 / 11)

The Wolverines were unable to compete at the BIG 10 XC Championships due to heightened COVID-19 precautions from the Michigan Athletic Department.

12. Iona Gaels (-3 / 9)

Nothing new from the Iona men. They haven't raced since last winter.

11. Wisconsin Badgers (+6 / 17)

We don't think that any team had as many surprise scorers as Wisconsin did at the BIG 10 XC Championships. Without top names such as Olin Hacker, Jack Meijer and Shuaib Aljabaly, the Badgers had to rely on some of their lesser known runners to bring them the team title.

Rowan Ellenberg and Charlie Wheeler stepped up in a big way to earn 3rd and 6th place finishes, Jackson Sharp matched expectations with a 4th place result and freshmen Bob Liking and Evan Bishop finished out the scoring by crossing the line in the top-15.

While it is hard to gauge these results in a field without Michigan, it is clear that Wisconsin has a lot more depth than we imagined. Winning a BIG 10 title without three of your top runners is super impressive, and it leads us to believe that when they get added back into this lineup, this is a team that will be knocking down the door for a top-10 ranking.

10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-5 / 5)

It was a tough day for the Notre Dame men at the Silver State XC Challenge as many of their best scorers struggled. Overall, the Irish finished 4th overall, falling five points short of Washington.

Nuguse had a solid 8th place finish, but he was someone who we thought could have been in the top three. Dylan Jacobs is an All-American, but dropped to 23rd overall in this race. Josh Methner was Notre Dame's fourth scorer at the ACC Championships, but was only their sixth runner and finished 27th overall.

Guys like Kilrea (9th) and Renfree (16th) had respectable performances, but I think we can chalk up this performance to Notre Dame simply having a bad day. They can certainly be better in the future and I think a larger, deeper field probably benefits this team.

9. Colorado Buffaloes (+1 / 10)

Against a strong field and without two of their projected top-four runners, Colorado once again proved that they should never be doubted with Coach Wetmore at the helm. Losing to Iowa State on a tie-breaker may not be the result they were looked for, but it shows us that this team is ready to compete once again for a top-10 finish at the NCAA Championships.

Eduardo Herrera picked up where he left off at the Oklahoma State Invitational last fall by finishing 2nd to Wesley Kiptoo. The senior looks like he is in the best shape of his life and is going to be a top-10 contender individually. Alec Hornecker earned an impressive 7th place finish while Hunter Appleton and Austin Vancil picked up top-30 finishes.

Despite all of that, this team still needs Stephen Jones (who is out with an injury) and Kashon Harrison. There were fairly large gaps between their second and third scorers and their fourth and fifth scorers -- something that could be an issue in the future.

Even so, to challenge a strong Cyclone team without Jones or Harrison is a great indicator for the Buffaloes' moving forward.

8. Iowa State Cyclones (0 / 8)

The Iowa State Cyclones were considered to be the co-favorites with Colorado heading into Friday's FSU Winter XC Classic. Of course, we all know by now that Stanford emerged victorious.

Even so, Iowa State had a nice race of their own, finishing 2nd overall with 98 points and beating out Colorado on the tie-breaker. Kiptoo continues to be a superstar and the recent emergence of Thomas Pollard (13th) having one of the better races of his career was encouraging. With Mitchell Day placing 17th, the Cyclones had a lot to be excited about.

However, guys like Festus Lagat (32nd), Milo Greder (38th) and Chad Johnson (41st) was a bit of a surprise. Lagat seemed to be a top-50 caliber runner (nationally) this past fall and it was surprising to see Greder and Johnson so far off from Pollard and Day.

Despite not having Ezekiel Kibichii and some of their scorers not having their best races, Iowa State still put together a very solid performance and our opinion of them largely hasn't changed.

7. Stanford Cardinal (+8 / 15)

One of the biggest winners of this past weekend was Stanford and their young stars.

Cole Sprout and Charles Hicks had the best cross country debut performances since Grant Fisher in 2015 as they led the Cardinal to a big win over Iowa State and Colorado. Finishing 5th and 6th in a loaded field shows that these two freshmen are ready to act as the much-needed low-sticks for a Stanford team that has lost so many stars over the past two years.

Alek Parsons (12th) was a solid third scorer while D.J. Principe (18th) had one of the better races of his career. Devin Hart (29th) and Thomas Boyden (34th) also ran well in their first races of the season, giving the Cardinal plenty of scoring security and depth.

Coming into this season, we knew that this team had plenty of talented youngsters, but we were not sure if they were ready to lead this powerhouse program to another top-10 finish, nationally.

However, after their run at FSU Winter XC Classic, it looks like the Cardinal are in good hands for the next few years and a top national finish is plenty realistic.

6. Oklahoma State Cowboys (+1 / 7)

Things are still quiet for men of Oklahoma State who have not yet raced during this winter cross country season. They have likely already done enough to qualify for the national meet, so it would be a surprise if they raced before the NCAA Championships in March.

5. Oregon Ducks (+1 / 6)

After the Ducks' record-setting DMR performance, they had the remainder of their team run at the Oregon XC Open. Without much of their projected top-seven, Oregon lost to Portland by a wide margin.

Jackson Mestler, the only member of their projected top-five who actually toed the line, won the race in impressive fashion, beating Portland's Stan Niesten by six seconds. With Mestler looking strong and Cooper Teare, Cole Hocker, Charlie Hunter, and Reed Brown coming off huge runs at the Razorback Invitational, the Ducks look like a force to be reckoned with on the cross country course.

However, the question remains as to whether or not we will see most of their top runners compete this cross country season. A recent article by DyeStat suggested that Oregon's top scorers will likely be aiming for the indoor national title in March.

If Oregon decides to all-in for the NCAA Indoor Championships, does that mean they will absent from cross country competition? I suppose we'll have to wait and see.

4. Arkansas Razorbacks (0 / 4)

Nothing new here for Arkansas. They've been posting some respectable marks on the track, but their performances in the fall were certainly strong enough to give them an easy bid to the national meet.

3. Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (0 / 3)

In their convincing win at the American Conference XC Championships, Tulsa showed us why they are such a strong podium contender. Patrick Dever picked up right where he left off last fall, winning this race by six seconds over teammate Scott Beattie who edged out Cincinnati’s Aaron Bienenfeld for the runner-up finish.

Peter Lynch, Isaac Akers and Cameron Field all finished within the top-seven to give the Golden Hurricanes a potent scoring five. This is the same top-five that earned Tulsa a 5th place finish at the 2019 NCAA Championships in Terre Haute...and they might be even better than last year.

Beattie’s performance in particular stands out. Lynch and Dever finished within the top-15 last year at the national meet while the rest of their top-five finished between 77th and 100th. If Beattie can maintain a similar distance between himself and Dever at the NCAA Championships, then that could theoretically give this team three All-Americans.

In that case, a podium finish seems well within their grasp.

2. BYU Cougars (0 / 2)

What a huge performance from the BYU men at the Silver State XC Challenge. They took down arch rival Northern Arizona by five points thanks to their overwhelming scoring potency. With four men finishing in the top-10, they took advantage of a Lumberjack lineup which didn't have all of their top scorers.

Mantz (1st), Clinger (4th) and Shumway (10th) were as good as we expected, but seeing Brandon Garnica (6th) perform the way he did was exciting. He didn't have a great race at the Oklahoma State Invitational this past fall, so it's encouraging to see him running back to the level that we thought he could.

However, BYU's fifth runner was all the way back in 28th place, leaving the Cougars with some scoring vulnerability. Of course, Northern Arizona, Washington and Notre Dame also had some difficulties with their backend scorers, ultimately letting BYU escape with the win.

BYU may have won, but NAU was without Grijalva, Bosley and Quax. If any of those guys had run (at full health) last week, then there's a very good chance that the men from Flagstaff, Arizona would have won. For that reason, we're keeping BYU at TSR #2.

1. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (0 / 1)

Nico Young stole the headlines with his 2nd place finish at the Silver State Collegiate Challenge, but the Lumberjacks' performance as a whole was impressive without their top runner (Luis Grijalva) and other scorers (Theo Quax and Drew Bosley).

Blaise Ferro and Ryan Raff look like they are in top form and will likely add to NAU’s already overwhelming depth. As for Young, his performance gives this team another top low-stick option who will help them tremendously when going up against BYU’s Mantz and Clinger.

This race showed us that NAU is beatable, but it also showed is that at full strength, the Lumberjacks are the clear team to beat. They have a much larger margin for error than any other team in the country.