The Group Chat: Winter Is Coming

Welcome back, writers! What was the favorite thing you did during The Stride Report’s six-month hiatus?

Maura: You could say I’m a creature of habit because not much changed for me during the six-month hiatus. I still found myself consistently reading and analyzing race results. And I continued to put more miles on my legs than ever before.

Sam: I made it six months without being “fired” from The Stride Report, which is easily the longest streak I’ve ever had.

Grace: I ran my first collegiate cross country season, spent a lot of time hiking and got a tuxedo kitten named Buddy.

Garrett: I ended up moving to the DC area right after we ceased operations. I've been exploring the area and hanging out with friends since then.

Alright, let’s get into the analysis. Which men’s runner and which women’s runner should’ve made it into our D1 Top 25 Preseason Rankings, but didn’t?

Maura: For the men, give me Isaac Basten (Drake). The Bulldog ace has grown immensely more fit over the course of the last year. He really broke onto the scene during the outdoor track season when he qualified for the NCAA Outdoor Championships in the 1500 meters.

What was even more surprising was seeing Basten advance to the finals at the outdoor national meet after running a PR of 3:39. He carried that success over to the cross country season, winning the MVC XC Championships and qualifying for the cross country national meet.

Basten has already seen success on the indoor oval this season, going from a 4:12 miler to a 3:58 miler. How high is his ceiling?

For the women, Tori Herman (Kentucky) is really catching my eye after her successful cross country season which resulted in an All-American finish. The young Wildcat ace owns a current mile PR of 4:39, but that time could drop this indoor season based on how she has been moving as of late.

Herman qualified for both the indoor and outdoor national meets last year in the mile and in the 1500 meters, respectively. Will Herman’s best performances come this winter where she challenges for a top-five time in the mile, nationally?

Sam: Considering that I co-ranked the women, I don’t see how the list isn’t perfect. If you could somehow argue for anyone else, then I’m actually pretty high on Lauren Bailey of Notre Dame. The former D2 standout from U-Indy was solid during the cross country season, but really broke through in her first track race with the Irish.

Bailey set a massive personal best in the 5000 meters at Boston University, finishing in a time of 15:45. That’s an 18-second improvement! You can’t really argue that Bailey should be ranked right now, but she could be someone who we look at in March and think, “We should have seen that coming.”

As for the men, Luis Peralta should probably be in the Top 25. Look, his second year at Oregon was a rollercoaster. He ran an incredible time of 1:46.13 for 800 meters (great!), but also failed to qualify for the finals at either the indoor or outdoor national meet (not great!).

Now, he has a year under his belt and the expectation is he’ll have his "ducks in a row" come the NCAA Indoor Championships. The talent is there, the execution just needs some work.

Grace: On the women’s side, I think Kayley DeLay (Yale) could continue her momentum from cross country season and excel in the 5000 meters. She placed 10th at the NCAA XC Championships to earn her first All-American finish after placing runner-up at the Northeast Regional Championships. She ran an impressive time of 15:36 in the 5000 meters at Boston University earlier this month which was her first time racing the 5k on the track.

For the men, I think Sam Gilman (Air Force) has seen a massive improvement this past year and could be a factor in the 5k. He placed 26th at the NCAA XC Championships and ran 13:25 in the 5000 meters at Boston University.

With only one (recent) All-American honor under his belt, it seems to fair to say that he lacks the experience and accolades relative to the runners who are listed in the rankings. However, this looks like a different year for Gilman.

Garrett: Juan Diego Castro (Oklahoma State) was a really tough name to leave out. He's run 1:48 (800) and 3:57 (mile), making him one of the better 800/mile talents in the country. Admittedly, he wasn't great in the postseason and failed to capitalize on a few opportunities. Conference rivals like Bizimana and Hedeilli seemed to be a step above. Even so, he's shown a lot of talent and its really hard to exclude a guy like that from our rankings.

Who is more likely to win their first NCAA title this season? Texas A&M’s Brandon Miller, Ole Miss’ Mario Garcia Romo or other?

Maura: My money is on Mario Garcia Romo. I see Garcia Romo challenging for the win in the 3000 meters after finishing 3rd at the indoor national meet last year behind recently turned professionals Cole Hocker and Cooper Teare. With his 3:56 mile speed and 7:48 (3k) personal best, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Garcia Romo take down the field en route to NCAA gold.

Grace: I agree with Maura and would place my bet on Mario Garcia Romo due to his impressive performances last year. He has the mix of speed, experience and endurance that is hard to match.

Sam: Folks, did we forget about Eluid Kipsang? The mile runner-up last winter? The 4th place finisher in the 1500 meters at the outdoor meet? The 3:55 personal best Eluid Kipsang?

Oh, yes, him…Kipsang is absurdly good at this distance and without Hocker or Teare, he has to be considered the favorite. Heck, he ran 3:35 last spring! What more do you want? However, all of this comes with an asterisk. I'm a little more concerned about Kipsang's chances only if Nuguse runs the mile. That being said, I’m guessing Nuguse will aim for the DMR/3k double at the indoor national meet.

Garrett: How on Earth is no one saying Brandon Miller? The guy ran 1:44 last spring, no longer has to deal with Jewett, is a member of an 800 meter powerhouse, has national meet success and has shown that he knows how to win. If he translates just 80% of his outdoor fitness to the indoor oval, then he should be able to secure NCAA gold relatively easily...right?

Who is more likely to win their first NCAA title this season? Arkansas’ Krissy Gear, Arkansas’ Lauren Gregory, Stanford’s Julia Heymach or other?

Maura: The category of “other” is where I’m going to land with West Virginia’s Ceili McCabe. The Mountaineer star finished a surprising 3rd place at the NCAA XC Championships in November following a breakout regular season.

McCabe will be in the conversation for a national title win in either the 3000 meters or 5000 meters this March even though she has only run four races on the indoor oval. The WVU runner is coming off of an incredible victory in the 3000 meters at Boston University where she ran a 33-second personal best of 8:52.

Now the question is, what kind of time will McCabe put up in the 5k?

Sam: The probability of anyone outside of these three winning is mathematically higher, so give me the field. McCabe is an obvious contender in the 3k and 5k. Grace Forbes could be a major threat if she runs well on the right day. Mercy Chelangat could be another obvious name if we're not counting her cross country national meet. I’m also not ruling out Keely Small in the 800 meters, or really any woman in that event for that matter.

Aaliyah Miller is obviously the favorite in the women's 800 meters this year, but she was fairly inconsistent in 2021 which leaves the door open for the likes of Lindsey Butler, Gabrielle Wilkinson and Claire Seymour.

So mathematically, give me the field here.

Garrett: I just think it has to be Krissy Gear. The Arkansas ace may be in a position where she has to run the DMR again, but if she doesn't, then I don't see how anyone beats her. She's tactically strong and is flat-out more fit than most of her competitors. In fact, without Sage Hurta present, I could see Gear realistically running in the DMR and still winning gold in the mile.

After running 13:28 for 5000 meters at Boston University, what is the percent chance that Northern Arizona’s George Kusche will run the 5k at the national meet?

Maura: 35%. Kusche’s time of 13:28 was a 54-second PR from the 14:22 mark he ran while he was at Nebraska. However, I believe Kusche’s success will come in the 3000 meters. The NAU graduate transfer currently owns a personal best of 7:50 in the event. Obviously, his time of 13:28 will provide Kusche with extra endurance, but I think his 3:57 mile speed sets him up nicely for a strong finish against his 3k competitors.

Yes, in theory, he could run the 5k/3k double at the indoor national meet, but Kusche could also run the mile or the DMR in addition to the 3000 meters. That seems more likely given the depth of this year's 5k field.

Sam: I’ll just echo Maura’s thoughts and land at 35%. Kusche running as well as he did is obviously a huge step, but the problem is that the event is so saturated already. You might argue, “but tactical finals are slower and rely on finishing speed” to which I’d ask, have you ever watched Wesley Kiptoo run? If not, please look up the race from the 2021 indoor national meet and get back to me on tactical racing.

Kusche is primed for the 3000 meters given his background as a miler, and I think it makes the most sense when you factor in where everyone else might land come March.

Grace: I think the chances of Kusche running the 5k at the indoor national meet are around 20% because just like Sam said, it's hard to ignore the number of athletes who are likely going to run in the 5000 meters in the postseason.

This NAU star has the necessary speed to make him successful in the 3000 meters, so I do not see any solid reasoning for running the 5000 meters, especially if the mile or DMR are also in play, but I do acknowledge his impressive performance at Boston.

Garrett: I'll say something along the lines of 30%. Kusche is an incredible talent and 13:28 is moving. However, there are a ton of guys who have run under 13:30 for 5000 meters and most of them will likely run that event at the indoor national meet. With personal bests of 3:57 (mile) and 7:50 (3k), I'm not sure it makes sense for him to enter a crowded 5k field which features a handful of his teammates.

After running 15:40 for 5000 meters at Boston University, what is the percent chance that Florida State’s Lauren Ryan will run the 5k at the national meet?

Maura: 85%. Prior to the Boston University Season Opener, Ryan had only run one indoor race for Florida State -- a 3000 meter effort in mid-January of 2020. Ryan really catapulted onto the scene for the 5000 meters with her 15:40 mark, a time that ranks her highly on the NCAA leaderboard.

That, however, is not her personal best.

The Florida State Seminole has a 15:22 (5k) PR from an outdoor race she ran in Portland, Oregon last May. We also can't ignore Ryan’s recent 26th place finish at the cross country national meet, her 8:54 personal best for 3000 meters or her raw 4:34 mile speed.

On paper, she has so many tools in her tool box to compete for a top-five finish in the 5k this year. That's why I like her chances of actually running it at the national meet.

Sam: 49.7%. It’s a long season and anything can happen. When you consider that she has run 4:34 in the mile and that fellow Seminole Maudie Skyring owns a personal best of the same time, FSU could double-down on the distance medley relay this winter. Splitting those two between the 1200 and 1600 legs set them up to compete with other top teams and still let the duo double back in the 3k.

From Ryan’s perspective, 15:40 is a great time, but in the national landscape right now, it sounds better than it is. I’m essentially leaving this to a coin flip, but the DMR/3k option seems particularly enticing for Florida State.

Grace: If Florida State puts Ryan in the DMR, then I don’t see any chance for her to run the 5k as she will have to opt for the mile/DMR double or the 3k/DMR double. In fact, she could also run the mile/3k double, too!

As Sam mentioned, teammate Maudie Skyring is equally as impressive as Ryan in the mile. If Skyring ends up in the DMR, then I think there’s a 60% chance Ryan will run the 5k, but she could surprise everyone and do the 3000 meters as well.

Garrett: I think it has to be something like 15%. I don't really see the 5k being a realistic option for Ryan. Her 4:34 mile speed makes her a very real threat to run either the mile and/or the DMR at the NCAA Indoor Championships. In theory, she could also be a lethal 3k runner.

Between the mile/DMR double, 3k/DMR double and the mile/3k double, I think it is far more likely that this Seminole star pursues something other than the 5k come March.