The Group Chat: D3 NCAA XC Championships Preview

Written by Hannah Thorn, Brett Haffner & Kevin Fischer

Additional edits and commentary by John Cusick & Garrett Zatlin

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The women’s team race will be a three-way battle between Wartburg (TSR #1), SUNY Geneseo (TSR #2) and U. of Chicago (TSR #3). Given the recent shuffling in our rankings, who are you giving the edge to and why?

Brett: It’s a really close battle between these three teams, but I think the way that Garrett described Wartburg in our team rankings best exemplifies how they’ll win this weekend: They probably have the most complete scoring five in Division Three.

Between the elite low-stick of Aubrie Fisher (TSR #6), the high ceiling of Lexi Brown and the fantastic scoring support offered by Riley Mayer, Shaelyn Hostager and Ellie Meyer, this group is truly hard to beat.

However, if even one of those five women falter, then it’s their title to lose as their sixth and seventh runners are a decent margin behind their top-five.

That would open the door for U. of Chicago or SUNY Geneseo to seize the opportunity. The Maroons would probably have the best chance to capitalize on that scoring vulnerability as they boast some impressive depth from their entire varsity lineup.

Yet, I’ll still lean on Wartburg’s consistency and impressive regional performance to ultimately bring home their first team national championship.

Kevin: I’m going to give the edge to Wartburg.

They showed at the Midwest Regional XC Championships that even with Shaelyn Hostager and Riley Mayer running just "alright", they can still beat the Maroons. It’s pretty rare to have a low-stick like Aubrie Fisher AND a time-spread under 30 seconds at a championship meet. That is a formula for a title-winning team.

We’ve talked about the U. of Chicago women having better sixth and seventh options than Wartburg and that’s still the case, but I’m not sure how much of a difference that makes if Wartburg’s key performers take care of business.

As far as SUNY Geneseo, they have arguably the best duo in the country, but there is a little bit of a drop-off after Kathleen McCarey (TSR #10) and Windsor Ardner (TSR #13). I don’t see the Knights getting more than two All-American finishers, and it’s hard to win a national title that way.

Hannah: It will be insanely close, but I have to go with Wartburg as well.

We’ve thought Aubrie Fisher would be a top-10 national meet finisher all season long, and it looks like that will be the case, but the difference-maker at the Midwest regional meet was Lexi Brown finishing right behind Fisher.

Having Brown beat out Anna Kenig-Ziesler (TSR #11) and Maddie Kelley was huge for the Knights' team points. Overall, the regional title was decided by six seconds between five different runners…it was that close.

I expect another close finish this weekend as U. of Chicago has shown that they like to run in a pack and they do it exceptionally well.

I don’t want to put pressure on one runner from their team since their strength is running together. However, if the duo of Kenig-Ziesler and Kelley can both finish in the top-20, then they have a good chance of taking home the title. In fact, we might see Wartburg and U. of Chicago have all of their top-five runners place in the top-50.

That’s not crazy talk, but more of a testament to how these teams have performed so far this season.

The men’s team title has seemingly been Pomona-Pitzer’s (TSR #1) to lose since the season began. While being heavy favorites, is there anyone who can give the Sagehens a run for their money? Or should we expect them to emerge as back-to-back-to-back team champions?

Brett: It’s just hard to count out Pomona-Pitzer at this point. Their greatest strength this year has been their interchangeability, giving them the best lineup flexibility and depth in Division Three, by far.

Now, that being said, that interchangeability also has its drawbacks, too.

Guys like Derek Fearon and Colin Kirkpatrick have been up and down this season, but their ceilings are massively high as they are both top-15 finishers from last year’s national meet.

The Sagehens also have the potential for some better-than-expected performances via Cameron Halter, Ethan Widlansky and Nathaniel Getachew. Those three men have served as excellent scoring weapons this season and they complement Lucas Florsheim (TSR #8) incredibly well.

On a great day, they could have seven All-Americans, which is not a hyperbole.

With these factors in mind, it’s really hard not to pick Pomona-Pitzer to win the national title -- it’s truly theirs to lose.

As for their contenders, MIT has great pack-running that they’ve employed this year, but they need to displace a handful of the Sagehens’ scorers to even have a shot.

With North Central, their frontend scoring can displace the Sagehens’ scorers, which we saw them do at the Augustana Interregional earlier this season. If they can have their first four scorers replicate their tight regional time-spread, and have their fifth scorer finish in a decent spot, then this could truly be a Pomona-Pitzer vs North Central battle for the title.

Kevin: I’m not sure that the Sagehens are as big of title favorites going into this weekend as a lot of people think they are. I’d go as far to say that MIT not only can beat them, but that they will beat them.

Pomona-Pitzer has dispatched some very solid D3 competition with relative ease this year and they have fully earned their TSR #1 ranking. However, they just haven’t looked quite as dominant as I expected them to be, especially last weekend.

If you look at MIT, they have seemingly been just as strong, if not better than their 2021 team that finished runner-up at the national meet. There is a lot of the same personnel who have continued to make key contributions this season and that added experience will likely go a long way on Saturday.

Another trivial factor that may have a real impact is the weather. I would hazard a guess that if the freezing conditions forecasted for Saturday favor anyone, it will not be the team based in southern California.

Hannah: I think Pomona-Pitzer will win.

At the West Regional XC Championships, they put their entire top-seven in the top-16 spots. They also don’t have a big gap between their scoring group. Of course, I would have liked to see SCIAC champion, Derek Fearon, fare better than 15th place overall.

Yes, the Sagehens are a little all over the place to the point where we don’t know who will beat who on any given day, but they still manage to win every race with relative ease.

I think both MIT and North Central will give them a run for their money, but it's Pomona-Pitzer's title to lose, in my opinion.

Kevin gave a great reason for the Engineers to win, so I won’t repeat it, but North Central could also make a push. They have a super-talented top-three of Connor Riss (TSR #12), Braden Nicholson (TSR #17) and Max Svienty who should all be in the top-25.

However, the Cardinals' lineup drop-off tends to come with their fourth and fifth scorers which must be monitored on Saturday. At the Midwest Regional XC Championships, their fifth runner was only 22nd place.

If Thomas Rohr or Nigel Neibel can close that scoring gap, then this team could give Pomona-Pitzer a legitimate scare.

What has to happen for Kassie Parker (TSR #1) to be upset on Saturday? Who will be the biggest threat to Parker’s pursuit of another national title?

Brett: The only way that I could see Kassie Parker not winning the individual national title is if she goes out way too hard and blows up. However, that’s pretty unlike her, thus, I’d keep the odds of her winning pretty high.

It’s gotta be Fiona Smith (TSR #2) to be her best challenger and it's probably only her.

While Smith did lose to Parker at the D3 National Preview, she’s come the closest out of anybody else thus far in Division Three. Smith has steamrolled her competition in fields without Parker, winning three outings.

Kevin: I agree with Brett that it’s not very likely that we see anybody beat Kassie Parker. And if anyone does, then it will be Fiona Smith.

Parker has been dominant all year, and there doesn’t appear to be anyone capable of stopping her. Although, in fairness, we thought that same thing last spring, but then Ari Marks took D3 by storm to win both the 10k and 5k national titles.

But I actually think that Parker is even better now and that she has learned from that experience. Smith will put up a good fight, but barring something crazy, Parker should ultimately pull away by a comfortable margin.

Hannah: I wouldn’t put it past Kassie Parker to go out super hard on Saturday.

She has done so in every meet this season and no one has been able to keep up. I think as a true veteran, she is smart enough to know her limits and not run beyond them.

Fiona Smith is going to go with her. Smith loves going out fast in races and running by herself. She is never afraid to be the one setting the tone and getting chased. Smith did get beat pretty handily by Parker at the D3 National Preview, but she has only gotten faster since then and it will be interesting to see how long she can stick with the Loras ace.

Annika Urban (TSR #3) is an interesting case here. She is undefeated this fall with highlights of winning the Paul Short "Brown" race, the UAA XC Championships and the South Regional XC Championships. Those are all high-level race settings and that may be one of the more challenging schedules that anyone in D3 has had to complete this fall.

Urban was 12th at the national meet last year, so she has some experience running in fields of this quality and shouldn’t be overwhelmed on Saturday.

However, we haven’t seen her run against Smith or Parker yet, so it’s hard to tell where she will land, but she is certainly a name to monitor as the race unfolds.

On the men’s side, Alex Phillip (TSR #1) has kept a tight grip on our top contender spot. Is there any chance that he can be upset on Saturday? Who presents the biggest threat to Phillip’s second cross country individual title?

Brett: If Alex Phillip lets the race come down to a kick, then he could very well be vulnerable and have the chance of being upset by another contender.

Yet, even in that kind of scenario, we saw him throw down a respondent and thrilling kick when faced up against Elias Lindgren in the final 400 meters of last year’s national meet. That response came after Lindgren made a bold move to seize the lead in the final 1000 meters.

For that boldness, Lindgren is one of two names who could seriously give Phillip a run for his money on Saturday.

The other?

Christopher Collet (TSR #3).

We haven’t had the chance to see Collet face any of the real top dogs in Division Three this year and his kick is something to be feared, especially with how many races he’s won this fall.

Keep an eye out for the Wartburg star as the race enters the final stages.

Kevin: Phillip is the clear favorite, but there is a greater chance of him being upset than Kassie Parker. His biggest threat right now is Elias Lindgren.

Lindgren is undefeated this cross country season despite facing some very good competition, most notably beating Tyler Morris (TSR #5) and Matthew Lecky (TSR #6) two times, each.

And in addition to his bold surge at last year’s cross country national meet, he also made a gutsy move in the last 800 meters of the 5k at the NCAA Outdoor Championships last spring before getting swallowed by the pack.

Even though he didn’t win either of those races, Lindgren showed us that he is willing to put himself out there and at least give himself a chance, even if it hasn't worked out yet. This mentality, along with his undeniable talent, makes him incredibly dangerous and gives him a non-negligible chance of beating Alex Phillip on Saturday.

Hannah: Kevin and Brett hit the nail on the head here. Phillip is the favorite, but not as much as Kassie Parker. Collet and Lindgren could be great challengers to him and could make this race very interesting.

I think Phillip will make his move around the 4k mark and try to break everyone well before the finish. In the 10k at the NCAA Outdoor Championships this past spring, we saw that he does not mind making a strong move from a long way out.

Phillip knows that he probably can't leave it to a kick, and after seeing success on the track, why wouldn't he try and repeat that tactic on the grass against many of the same opponents?

Who is your dark horse pick to have a better-than-expected performance in the women’s team race on Saturday?

Brett: I’m really liking how Carleton (TSR #7) has been progressing throughout the latter-half of this cross country season.

Clara Mayfield (TSR #4) continues to do Clara Mayfield things, but the presence of freshman Hannah Preisser (TSR #16) has been huge for the Knights, giving them another low-end scoring option who could potentially land in the All-American honors range.

Beyond those two, Helen Cross and Libby Rowland had great regional meet showings as the team’s third and fourth scorers. Meanwhile, Sophie McManus and Phoebe Ward had great conference meet performances, also emerging as the team’s third and fourth scorers.

If all four of those women can come together and contribute their best on the same day, then we could see Carleton jump a few spots ahead of their current TSR #7 ranking.

Kevin: I think Washington U. (TSR #6) has a serious chance of contending for the podium, especially if Emily Konkus (TSR #14) is firing on all cylinders.

The Bears were a fairly distant 3rd place behind Wartburg and U. of Chicago last weekend, but the results would have been much closer had Konkus been racing.

Johns Hopkins appears to have rested a couple of their key runners last weekend and Claremont-Mudd-Scripps, despite winning both the SCIAC title and the West regional title, hasn't looked super convincing in either of those meets.

It will be a difficult task, but on the right day, the Bears can finish ahead of both of those teams and slide into 4th place. To do that, they will probably need to finish with three All-Americans via Konkus, Ott and Rector while keeping their fourth and fifth scorers within a reasonable range of that top-three.

Hannah: I am going to say Claremont-Mudd-Scripps. I think their team learned a lot from last year when they let the team title slip out of their hands. I think they will race a bit more conservatively this year and that it will pay dividends.

They have a great low-stick in Natalie Bitetti (TSR #8) who could finish in the top-five if things break perfectly for her. Then, add in Meredith Bloss (TSR #15) who should also be in the top-20 conversation.

Meanwhile, Annika Kimme has had a great championship season so far and is peaking at the right time, giving the Athenas a welcomed scoring boost. She often finishes right behind Bloss and if the Athenas can get three athletes in the top-30, then that would be huge for them.

Elle Marsyla and Angela Gushue round out the top-five and need to avoid total disaster on Saturday. CMS lacks the same kind of depth that other teams have displayed, so the success of Marsyla and Gushue will be incredibly important if a podium finish is to be had.

Who is your dark horse pick to have a better-than-expected performance in the men’s team race on Saturday?

Brett: My pick is going to be the team that brought home the biggest regional upset last weekend, the UW-Whitewater Warhawks.

Losing some key names from last year’s 5th place team was tough, but the Warhawks earned a second-consecutive North Regional XC Championships title last Saturday, upsetting a very strong UW-La Crosse team in the process.

The 1st and 3rd place finishes from Christian Patzka (TSR #8) and Gunner Schlender (TSR #18), respectively, were not all that surprising -- they got the job done as expected.

However, it was truly the efforts of their backend scorers that made all the difference.

Middle distance specialist Justin Krause, freshman Dan Anderson and sophomore Chris Allen were able to displace UW-La Crosse’s backend runners, propelling them to a team victory in what was a pleasantly surprising jump in scoring support and depth.

Heading into the national meet, the UWW men have got some fantastic momentum to roll with. Of course, having two potent low-sticks who can shoulder the scoring burden never hurts in a championship setting such as this.

Kevin: I’m gonna go with a team who is probably expected to be in the backend of this meet in Connecticut College. This might be a surprising answer, but I consider them dark horses because they will likely outperform expectations this weekend.

After beating St. Lawrence by only two points, the Camels were likely one of the last at-large teams to be selected into the field of 32, so I think most people’s expectations for them are pretty tapered.

However, the combination of Matt Carter (TSR #13) and Jeffrey Love is something that most teams at their level don’t have, and in terms of scoring, that will make a big difference.

The depth issues will hurt them, but if Carter and Love combine for less than 40 points, then they can finish close to 20th, even with the backend of their scorers racking up a lot of points.

That doesn’t sound like much, but it would be a major success for a team that just snuck into the national meet and has a lineup structure that has shown glimpses of promise.

Hannah: I am going to go with John Carroll.

They have been in and out of our top-10 rankings all season long, but have been racing fairly well as of late. They had a resounding win over Case Western at the Great Lakes Regional XC Championships which suggests that they are rounding into top form.

Having Alex Phillip score a single point massively helps with the team score. But behind him, Barrett Scheatzle and Joe Backus have become very solid second and third scoring options for the Blue Streaks.

At their regional meet, those two men finished 6th and 7th place overall, giving JCU three runners in the top-10. Backus has been slowly moving up the standings all season long and has proven to be a difference-maker for the team.

Ryan Champa and Tommy Naiman will likely round out the scoring for John Carroll. They were less than 20 seconds behind Backus last weekend, an encouraging sign heading into a large field like the NCAA XC Championships.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Blue Streaks have the best race of their season and finish as high as 7th place in the team standings. Momentum is very clearly on their side.

Which individuals do you think could surprise us on Saturday?

Brett: I’ve got to go with Henry Pick. We must acknowledge his performance at the West Regional XC Championships the other weekend.

Pick completely resurrected himself from an otherwise mediocre season, nearly giving Lucas Florsheim (TSR #8) a run for his money to take 2nd place overall.

The CMS ace has shockingly not been better than the Stags’ fourth scorer thus far, falling as far as the seventh or eighth option for his team throughout this season. He had not been having the season that we expected from him at all.

However, Pick is proving himself to be a postseason warrior for the second season in a row, propelling himself to some wildly impressive performances. His heroic 3rd place finish at last year’s national meet was not expected at all, but it proves that he has the clutch gene.

Could Henry Pick contend for the individual national title on a great day?

That might be asking a lot, but we’ll just have to watch and find out.

On the women’s side, I’m really curious to see how Mary Kate McGranahan (TSR #12) will perform this weekend.

She has posted some very impressive performances this year and her ceiling is quite high, racking up some solid wins over some key names.

Outside of one lackluster performance at the Connecticut College Invitational, McGranahan has been on her "A" game this fall, bringing the heat to nearly every race that she has toed the line for.

McGranahan has the potential to finish near the top-10 at the national meet this weekend and earn her first career All-American honor.

Kevin: On the men’s side, I think Simon Heys will exceed expectations. He is currently sitting at TSR #14, but when you consider that he was 5th at this meet last year and that he has been running fairly consistently this fall, his ceiling is likely much higher than 14th.

I would not be surprised to see Heys get close to the top-five yet again this year.

Someone on the women’s side who I think has the potential to outperform her ranking is Kathleen McCarey (TSR #10). The only Division Three competitors who she has lost to this year have been Alex Ross (TSR #5) at the Spartan Invitation and Clara Mayfield (TSR #4) and Morgan Lee (TSR #9) at the Rowan Interregional.

We have her ranked at TSR #10 right now, but it would not be surprising to see her finish further up than that. She is often a consistent and steady presence in the upper portion of these elite fields.

Hannah: For the men, I will say Sam Llaneza from Lynchburg. He was in our "Just Missed" section in our latest individual rankings. He was the South Regional XC Championships individual winner and has performed relatively well all season long. He has been so consistent this year with one of his best performances coming at the Rowan Interregional where he was 5th in a stacked field.

Llaneza’s consistency this year has been encouraging as it looks like he has learned from last year. He was a little all over the place last fall and then his national meet performance was one to forget, finishing 111th.

I think he will easily outperform that result this year and I think that he can even break into the top-20 individual spots.

For the women, I am going with Jessica Hoffmann from Scranton. She somewhat nearly pulled off the upset against Alex Ross from Johns Hopkins at the Mid-Atlantic Regional XC Championships last weekend.

That was a big performance that we thought came out of nowhere. And after doing some digging, Hoffmann was actually undefeated until that regional meet. Yes, she was racing in some fairly small meets, but being undefeated still means something.

I think she has flown under the radar. She showed us that she has the guts to put it all out on the course. And for that reason, I believe that she'll exceed expectations on Saturday.