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The Group Chat (D3): Are Grace Hadley & Lynchburg's DMR NCAA Title Favorites? Plus, Choosing Grace Richardson's Best Event
- TSR Collaboration
- Feb 14, 2024
- 11 min read
Written by Conor Daly, Kevin Fischer & Gavin Struve
Questions, edits and additional commentary via Gavin Struve & Garrett Zatlin
What a wild weekend it was...
After plenty of significant headlines began to pop up in recent weeks, several of the men's and women's distance events at next month's D3 indoor national meet appear far more wide-open than we previously expected them to be. And naturally, new contenders have emerged.
Below, our Division Three crew gathered to discuss (and debate) the biggest recent developments ahead of our third rankings update...
Each of the six fastest women’s 3k times of the season came on Friday, and a total of 10 out of the top-16 came this past weekend. With 9:48 (3k) serving as the current NCAA #20 time and 9:46 occupying that status last year, what do you think the national qualifying cut-off time will be to advance to the 2024 NCAA Indoor Championships after scratches?
Kevin: I think it probably ends up being around where it was last year. We still have a few weeks to go, but I think this upcoming weekend, which is mostly before all of the main conference meets, will be fairly quiet. After all, the majority of the athletes capable of dropping exceedingly fast times have already done so.
Regardless, there are always a few women who come into the postseason and steal some spots -- and this year certainly won't be any different.
Conor: As of right now, the NCAA #14 mark for 3000 meters is 9:43, but the NCAA #15 mark sits at 9:47. I would be feeling really good that I will be on the starting line in March if I was the former, but I would be expecting to have to run a faster time if I was the latter. That's to say, I think that the national qualifying cut-off time is going to be between those two marks.
There are a handful of names that are not in that current top-14 who I think are more than likely to break that 9:47 barrier in the coming weeks. Those women include Maddie Kelly (U. of Chicago), Audrey Maclean (Middlebury), Maddie Hannan (UW-La Crosse) and Shaelyn Hostager (Wartburg), to name a few.
It’s also important to consider that the 3k is a seldom-scratched event at the indoor national meet. Since it is the last distance event of the competition, athletes have nothing to save their legs for, although many already have at least one race in their legs.
All in all, I say you need to run under 9:46.10 to earn your spot on the line.
Gavin: I think 9:45 is a fair expectation for the national meet cut-off time over 3000 meters when considering that times will continue to get steadily faster each year. Plus, several women should be in line to run right around that mark as Conor suggested.
I would be surprised if anyone who runs that fast (or faster) is left out of the NCAA Indoor Championships. But the final time to actually make it into the meet could be nearly identical to last year's cut-off mark if there are, for some reason, more scratches than expected.
As the new owner of the NCAA-leading mile mark, is Grace Hadley the favorite to win gold over that distance next month? Are we sure she’ll even race the mile at the indoor national meet?
Conor: Grace Hadley had a weekend to remember, to say the least.
Not only did she run a 4:46 mile PR on Friday, but she also returned to the track the next day to anchor her team’s DMR with 4:43.56 split on the anchor leg! That’s a mind-boggling weekend double for anyone, but especially for someone who’s known more so for their longer distance prowess.
At her sole national meet appearance on the track last spring, Hadley chose to contest the 5k and scratch the 1500 meters. While this did lead her to a 6th place All-American finish, I think it’s about time for Hadley to embrace her middle distance talents.
Fiona Smith is the heavy national title favorite in the 3k and the 5k, but the mile is seemingly wide-open, at least for the moment. Sure, choosing the mile means that Hadley would need to pivot a good bit from her distance-oriented focus. Even so, there’s no reason to think that she couldn’t win the mile national title. A national lead by three seconds is a healthy margin.
The only fear that I have for Hadley is that she will be racing on tired legs by the time the indoor national meet comes around. She’s been busy in the early going this winter, competing in six races over the last four weekends. And while that’s going amazingly for the time being, you do have to wonder if fatigue in mid-March could play a role.
Kevin: I agree with Conor that there's no reason for Hadley not to run the mile at this year's NCAA Indoor Championships.
While there's an argument to contest the typical DMR/3000-meter weekend double in order to be fresh for the relay, when you have a serious chance at a national title as Hadley does in the mile, you can’t pass it up.
To this point, some of the top returning names from the 1500 meters last spring have been a little bit underwhelming in the mile -- among five returners with personal bests of 4:26 or better, none of them have run under 4:54 this winter.
As of right now, Hadley is taking full advantage of this national leaderboard gap and has put herself in position to be the favorite to get her first national title.
Gavin: I think I default to Grace Hadley as the mile national title favorite at this point in the season -- it feels only fair given what she's achieved, particularly last weekend.
There's an argument to be made that her newfound mile speed makes her as well positioned as anyone to take advantage of any hiccup from Fiona Smith in the 3k or the 5k, but I expect her to compete in (and perhaps prioritize) the mile at the indoor national meet.
That being said, I'd certainly take the field over any one runner in that event.
Cory Kennedy finished 5th at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships and has run top-three marks in both the 3k and the 5k this season. What percent chance would you give him to emerge as a surprise national champion this coming March?
Conor: Cory Kennedy has been on a roll as of late. He has taken a stunning 13 seconds off of his 3k personal best and nine seconds off of his 5k personal best. Those are huge margins for someone who has already been a two-time All-American on the track.
I think it’s more than likely that he’s an All-American than a national champion this winter, and it's reasonable to say that he grabs double All-American honors.
For as solid as he is, I have a difficult time seeing the RPI veteran as an outright national champion. He’s a long distance-oriented runner, so I find it hard to see him kick down an elite national field. He just ran a personal best in the mile, but I just can’t see a world in which a 4:12 (converted) mark is going to cut it, tactically.
Come March, Kennedy is going up to be up against men who have run similarly over 3k, but also carry mile PRs in the ballpark of 4:07, with some even faster than that. I hate to be so pessimistic, but I’m going to give a 4% chance of seeing a Cory Kennedy national title.
Kevin: I see him as a key contender in both the 5000 meters and the 3000 meters, but I'm not sure that he'll have that little bit extra to come away with a national title.
As phenomenal as he has been, Kennedy is still an underdog in both events. I don't see him keeping pace with the likes of Christian Patzka and Ethan Gregg for 5000 meters. The 3000 meters, however, will be a little bit more interesting. I see that as an event where a lot of different guys could win.
Even so, I think if anyone besides Patzka or Gregg takes NCAA gold in that latter event, then it would be Nate Lentz who has the best shot as he has been a mile All-American in the past.
So with all of that being said, I think the chance is fairly slim, but I'll go a little higher than Conor and say 8% that Cory Kennedy win a national title in March.
Gavin: As Conor suggested, double All-American honors is probably a more realistic goal for Kennedy. But at the very least, he deserves to be mentioned on the fringes of the national title conversation with the current level of momentum and experience he carries.
I'm also assuming that he has multiple bites of the apple (racing the 3k and the 5k) which raises his chances. So I'll attribute a nice, clean number of 10% to his gold medal odds. It's unlikely, but not impossible.
Given that she’s sitting in the top-six of three different events on the national leaderboard, which event is Grace Richardson most likely to find postseason success in?
Conor: In the most simple way, Grace Richardson has run elite marks in the mile, the 3k and the 5k. As such, it’s only fitting that she will be best at the distance that is in the middle, right?
The 5k is so top-heavy which makes it a daunting task to take on. I find it to be unlikely that Richardson chooses to put 25 indoor laps in her legs. Instead, I foresee her prioritizing the mile and the 3k.
In my opinion, her 3k is the better mark (compared to her mile) and she sits at NCAA #2 over that distance. As interesting as I think it would be for her to go all-in for the 3k at the indoor national meet, I imagine that she runs the mile/3k double, especially with uncertainty about whether or not Hadley will also contest the mile.
Kevin: No matter what she runs, I don't think Richardson can go wrong. In my eyes, she's a favorite to be a double All-American.
If I had to guess though, I'm on the same page as Conor. A mile/3k double seems to give her more scoring power than a 5k/3k double, largely because that way, she gets to avoid facing Fiona Smith for at least one of her two events.
The mile appears to be her only real shot at a national title. She's still an underdog, and as we mentioned earlier in the article, it will be incredibly difficult to stop Hadley. But the NYU ace has much better odds taking that route compared to two consecutive days of trying to hang with future NC State runner, Fiona Smith.
Gavin: I'm also in the boat of the mile/3k double being Grace Richardson's best avenue(s) to success. But forced to choose one event, I like her odds in the mile the best. Richardson is good enough to win a national title in that event and the mile gives her the best chance at the ultimate form of postseason success regardless of whether or not it's her ideal distance.
Ethan Gregg faltered a bit relative to expectations in the 5k at Boston U. this past weekend. On a scale of 1 to 10, how much does that performance influence your feelings on Gregg moving into the postseason?
Conor: Isn’t it crazy that we live in a world where we’re disappointed that a Division Three athlete ran 14:09 over 5000 meters? I certainly think so.
It’s a testament to Ethan Gregg’s talents that we are underwhelmed by his latest effort. Yes, the cross country national champion ought to be sitting comfortably inside the top-10 in his main (indoor) event, especially when you consider that he has raced sparingly this indoor track season and has effectively placed greater importance on the races that he does run.
But when you consider his converted 8:04 (3k) effort from January, it’s clear that things are still clicking for Gregg. I’m going to give him some grace for his performance this past weekend. Traveling halfway across the country and racing in tightly bunched heats at Boston U. are both things that Gregg isn’t used to.
That leaves me confident that a 14:09 (5k) mark is not a good measurement of his abilities. Gregg is a veteran who is always ready in the postseason. That puts my feelings about how that performance affects him at a "2" out of 10.
Kevin: He'll be fine. It was obviously a frustrating day for Gregg, but it's clear that this isn't a full representation of the shape he's in. He went through 3000 meters on pace for a really solid 13:55 mark, but just dropped off the pace.
The silver lining is that his 14:09 mark will still get him comfortably into the indoor national meet which is all he needs to do until March.
It would be foolish to judge him just off of one day or to stop thinking of him as a serious title threat. So on a 1 to 10 scale of how much my assessment of Gregg has changed, I'll say a "3".
Gavin: This performance took me aback considering that Gregg has been razor sharp throughout this academic year. And yet, a 14:09 (5k) result being registered as an underachievement speaks to how talented he is.
But what I find more concerning is that he finished a ways behind fellow Division Three stars such as Patzka, Spencer Moon (Simpson (IA)) and Gunner Schlender (UW-Whitewater). That might threaten his place as our previously unquestioned TSR #1. But more likely than not, Gregg has just gotten his one "stinker" of a race out of the way this season.
The Lynchburg men emerged as the top D3 DMR team at Boston University on Friday. A year after finishing 4th on the national stage with two of the same three runners on the distance legs, should they be the national title favorites? If so, would you take them over the field?
Kevin: I'm ready to call them national title favorites, but picking any DMR squad over the field is a dangerous game.
One thing I love about this Lynchburg relay is the versatility they have with the construction of their lineup. They ran 9:44 without their 1:49 (800) man, Tor Hotung-Davidsen. If he were to get back to his best and slide into the 800-meter spot, then Sam Llaneza could run a super formidable 1200-meter or 1600-meter leg.
The time might not compare to what Loras did at this meet last year, or what John Carroll did two years ago, but I don't really see any teams beating the Hornets right now. UW-La Crosse feels like their top challenger though, due to their mile depth and the top-tier performances of Cael Schoemann.
A key point to note is that you don't know exactly who will be lining up for which teams in March and how fresh they will be. That makes the DMR one of the hardest events to predict, but that's what beautiful about it, too.
Conor: The Lynchburg men really did put on a show for us. They split sub-3:00 (1200), sub-50 (400), sub-1:50 (800) and sub-4:10 (1600) for each of their legs, respectively. It’s one thing to have athletes capable of that, but it’s another to have them all execute on the same day.
Like Kevin, I am ready to call them national title favorites, yet I don’t feel confident enough to declare them over the field.
While UW-La Crosse is the obvious choice to stand in their way, we can’t forget that Mount Union was in the same race and only finished two seconds behind the Hornets. On a good day from both sides, I think Lynchburg is the better team, yet there is certainly a world in which Mount Union could be standing atop the podium in March.
I’m also keeping my eye on UW-Eau Claire, home to 4:06 and 4:07 (converted) milers this season. But we can’t forget MIT’s very nice sub-9:50 (DMR) clocking this past weekend. Veteran Sam Acquaviva, who will be the anchor leg for them, is heating up at just the right time, something that we recently highlighted a week or two ago.
Gavin: Lynchburg has the best DMR unit on paper, employing four veritable distance stars: Hotung-Davidsen, Llaneza, Frank Csorba and Chasen Hunt. We've also seen them put it together in a real race setting now.
So after the Hornets finished 4th in the DMR at the 2023 NCAA Indoor Championships last winter, I agree with my colleagues on the notion that Lynchburg is the (somewhat clear) national title favorite. But I would need to see one more elite performance (which we may not get ahead of the indoor national meet) before declaring them as the favorites over the field.
