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The Group Chat (D2): Gracie Hyde's Historic Weekend & D2 Superstars Reset 3k Record
- TSR Collaboration
- Feb 14, 2024
- 14 min read
Written by Ian Dickenson, Marissa Kuik, Grace McLaughlin & Gavin Struve
Questions, edits and additional commentary via Gavin Struve & Garrett Zatlin
We're continuing to see an abundance of elite marks (and NCAA records) as we dig deeper through the winter months and closer to the NCAA Championships. As such, our Division Two writers converged to discuss the biggest storylines from the past month while answering some key questions for the weeks that lie ahead.
We’ve already seen two men’s D2 NCAA records fall this season — one in the 3k and one in the 5k. On a scale of 1 to 10, how likely is it that we see a new record in the mile (currently 3:56.10) or the 800 meters (1:46.78) in the next month?
Marissa: I am in the middle on this one. On one hand, I think there are a handful of runners in Division Two capable of breaking one of these records, but I always consider the second weekend in February as the peak part of the season. And after that weekend, we turn our attention to championship racing.
Once the championship season hits, athletes are more focused on placement rather than running records. Races become much more about tactical finishes than running hard from the gun. With that being said, I think the 800-meter record is more likely to get broken. After Wes Ferguson’s 1:47.32 mark from earlier this winter, I think he has a great chance of breaking the record, but probably not until the indoor national meet.
A 3:56.10 (or faster) mile is less likely because those who have a chance of breaking that record are more likely to be more focused on placing as high as possible in as many events as they can at the national meet. If I gave it a number though, I would say “7” for the likelihood of an 800-meter record and “5” for the mile.
Grace: Realistically, if the D2 record for 800 meters is broken this season, it is going to be by Ferguson. He has a PR of 1:45 on the outdoor oval, but the half-mile on an indoor track is drastically different. I think it would take a near-perfect scenario for him to run under the record of 1:46.78 this season.
That being said, I think the chance of Ferguson breaking the D2 record for 800 meters is still better than the mile.
The fastest non-converted mark in the mile this season is 3:58 held by Caleb Futter of Grand Valley State. That's a very strong mark, but it's not terribly close to 3:56.
Miguel Coca’s 3:55 and Romain Legendre’s 3:56 conversions need to be taken with a grain of salt in my opinion. They’re both very talented in the event, but they’re getting a five-second conversion for racing at a much lower altitude than they live and train at.
I would say a “6” for the likelihood of a D2 record being set over 800 meters this season and a “5” for the same thing happening in the mile.
Ian: Given the amount of sub-four mile conversions being thrown down left and right this winter, I'd put the possibility of a record at a "6" out of 10. As Grace mentioned, we've already seen a superb 3:55 conversion from Coca and a 3:58 effort at sea level from Futter.
Perhaps more encouragingly than that, though, Coca just demolished the Division Two 3k record last weekend, followed closely by Loïc Scomparin (Colorado Mines) in 7:46 and Hamza Chahid (Wingate) in 7:47.
All three of those men have shown excellent range consistently throughout their careers. However, Coca and Chahid, who have historically enjoyed more success over the mile/1500 meters, have a more realistic chance at dipping under the 3:56.10 mark this season.
That’s not even mentioning the score of other milers closely surrounding these athletes at the top of the NCAA leaderboard.
In my opinion, the D2 800-meter record seems less likely to fall. Ferguson (TSR #1) is without a doubt capable of taking that record, but I think it’s unlikely that he’ll need to. He's always been a runner who has enjoyed more of a quiet regular season before peaking for the national meet. It would probably take a fast race at the NCAA Indoor Championships to break the record rather than at an invitational.
With that said, it’s hard to imagine Ferguson being pushed enough to need to run faster than 1:46.78 when he is head and shoulders above the rest of his competitors at 800 meters, both in terms of experience and talent.
Gavin: I'll put the likelihood of each feat at a "6" out of 10. Marissa was wise in pointing out that the traditional window of the season for running elite times has largely passed. But given the recent proliferation of elite marks across all levels of running, I think each of the two men's middle distance events has roughly as good of a chance (or better) as not that a record falls.
He may not need to, but Ferguson is wholly capable of running 1:46 on the indoor oval and he looks even sharper at this point of the season than he has in past title-winning campaigns. And it would hardly surprise me if Coca dips under 3:56 after doing so via conversion and recently setting that aforementioned 3k record. It will likely be a matter of whether these stars want to attack the records in their respective events and when.
With NCAA-leading marks in both the mile, 3k and the DMR, including NCAA records in the latter two, which event does Gracie Hyde have the best chance at winning a national title in?
Marissa: Gracie Hyde has the best chance of winning the national title in the 3k and the DMR. Hyde already has stellar teammates to support her in the DMR. If she forgoes the mile, then she has a day in the middle of the indoor national meet to rest, making it easier for her to win the 3k.
If she chooses the DMR/mile double, she will have a harder time winning the mile title since the mile is a little more unpredictable and has preliminary rounds. Either way, Hyde has a very good shot at winning two national titles no matter the racing combination she takes on.
Grace: I think Hyde’s best chance at NCAA gold is in the DMR due to the performance that we saw from the Grizzlies this past weekend, but I consider her the clear favorite over 3000 meters as well.
As Marissa pointed out, the DMR/3k double would be more strategic, but I could also see a scenario where Hyde runs the mile/3k double and Adams State utilizes one of their other talented milers as the anchor leg.
In short, Hyde’s best chance for gold is in the DMR, but I think she will take home the individual title in the 3k. As for the mile, she is certainly a top contender, but the rounds and strategy of that event at the championship level make it much more unpredictable.
Ian: I'll also say the DMR. This is not to say that Hyde's chances in the other events are low -- I think she's the best all-around women's distance runner in Division Two -- but Adams State is so much better than every other team that it’s hard to imagine another group winning the DMR at the indoor national meet.
It might be the boring choice to pick the NCAA record-holders to win, but there’s a reason for that. I was tempted to say the 3k was Hyde’s best shot at a title given that she also holds that record and leads the nation by a considerable margin. But when a program's "B" team has run the second-fastest time in an event this season, you don’t want to bet against them.
The DMR often comes down to just having a good enough first three legs to give your best runner the shot to win it on the anchor leg, but Adams State is so far ahead that even with Hyde at the anchor, they could wrap up the national title before she even gets the baton.
That is assuming she even runs it, of course.
As Grace already mentioned, Adams State has such a depth of quality that they could replace her with another runner in the DMR so that she can run the 3k and the mile where I would give her the edge in the latter.
Gavin: I don't feel amazing about this assessment given that I still think Hyde's best event is the mile, but I agree that the 3k represents her best chance at individual gold and the DMR is probably her best overall shot at a national title.
Hanging one's championship prospects on the ability of three others makes me a bit squeamish, but the Grizzlies appear to be far and away the best relay outfit. As such, Hyde can enter the national meet feeling strong about her chances of obtaining at least one gold medal.
With NCAA-leading marks in both the mile and the 3k, including an NCAA record in the latter, which event does Miguel Coca have the best chance at winning a national title in?
Marissa: Miguel Coca already won a national title in the mile last year, and I think he has strong odds at repeating. Both the 3k and the mile are extremely competitive on the men’s side this winter. However, I think Coca has tougher challengers in the 3k, including Loïc Scomparin and Tyler Nord (Western Colorado).
He still has tough competitors to beat in the mile, but he has been in that situation before and knows how to navigate the rounds of the mile. He's plenty familiar with how to compete in the final laps of a strategic championship race over that distance.
Grace: I think Marissa nailed it with her answer.
Despite the mile having more factors to consider due to rounds and tactics, Coca has already shown that he is capable of nabbing a championship win in that event. Plus, I think his finishing speed is more beneficial in the mile rather than the 3k.
The latter event will have more star competitors, and there’s a number of ways that the race could play out. Another factor to consider is that Coca will likely run the mile/3k double which involves three total races while many of the other top contenders in the 3k will opt for the 5k/3k double which gives them fresher legs.
Ian: If I’m Coca, I’m taking my chances in the mile. For one, he is the reigning national champion in the event and he finished runner-up over 1500 meters at the outdoor national meet last year. The Adams State standout is a true veteran at this distance and that's what matters most in championship settings.
We could very well see him double like he did last year, so this is a question we might just see answered. While he is the 3k record holder as of last weekend’s Boston U. David Hemery Valentine Invitational, that is probably the discipline where he’ll face more competition, as my colleagues have already pointed out.
What it comes down to is that the people who have shown similar ability to him in the mile are some of the same runners posting phenomenal marks in the 3k -- and many of them will most likely forgo racing the mile at the national meet in favor of the 3k or even the 5k.
Don’t get me wrong, Coca will have some stiff competition from the likes of sub-four milers such as James Dunne and Caleb Futter. But given that Coca already won this event at the national meet last year, he is undoubtedly the favorite.
Gavin: I don't have anything new to contribute to this question...I think the mile also favors Coca most regardless of whether it's the event that he holds the NCAA D2 record in.
10 of the top-16 marks in the women’s 800 meters came on Friday. In your eyes, who are the women who didn’t enter the weekend as All-American contenders, but are now?
Marissa: Lieke Hoogsteen definitely was not on my radar this season until this past weekend.
The Grizzly middle distance talent ran well in the DMR for Adams State and then dropped three seconds from her previous open 800-meter mark this season, going from 2:13 to 2:10. In the half-mile, three seconds is a huge margin, and if she can just navigate the rounds, then I feel confident that Hoogsteen can be an All-American contender.
Grace: I like Marissa’s pick of Hoogsteen as well, but I think Erin Dorn of Davenport is worth mentioning. She didn’t make a massive jump by running 2:10 at the GVSU Big-Meet (Friday), but she showed impressive consistency by running 2:12 in the event the following day.
Dorn has steadily improved over the years, and her consistency and reliability in such an unpredictable event will serve her well during championship races. I also really like her uptick in competitiveness and the confidence that she has shown in her racing this season.
Ian: I’ll piggyback off of Marissa and Grace to put Hoogsteen as the biggest standout from these performances.
I also want to highlight Marian Ledesma (Western Washington) who similarly ran a sizable seasonal best after starting the season more slowly. Not to mention, Katie Heck (Fort Lewis) came into the weekend with decent marks over 3000 meters and 800 meters. However, a converted 2:09 performance for the half-mile distance is more reminiscent of the kind of athlete that she was on the outdoor oval last year.
A lot of the women in the top-16 had run pretty well over 800 meters either this season or in previous campaigns, so nobody has come completely out of nowhere. Even so, the event appears much more tightly packed after this past weekend.
Gavin: I'm going to warp the question a bit so as to provide a different name: Katherine Marsh (Adelphi). She was already an All-American contender entering this season after reaching the 2023 NCAA Indoor Championships and running as fast as 2:08 last winter. But dare I suggest she's elevated herself to a national title contender this season despite never obtaining All-American honors?
Marsh has progressed from 2:10 in December to 2:09 last month and now an NCAA-leading 2:08. If she can draw from her national meet experience last year and overcome her championship final inexperience, she appears primed to continue building momentum and to take advantage of a wide-open year in the D2 women's half-mile.
The men’s 3000-meter minimum national qualifying cut-off time currently sits at 8:04.52, with seven of the top-16 times coming this past Friday. Will the NCAA #16 time get down to 7:59 before the indoor national meet?
Marissa: The 3k national cut-off time will not fall under eight minutes because most runners are now entering championship season.
Similar to what I said in the first question, times are not necessarily the focus at this point of the indoor season. Fast times will still be run, and there may even be one or two more sub-8:00 (3k) marks in the coming weeks. Even so, I don't think it will be enough to push the cutoff time to 7:59.
Grace: I agree with Marissa here, I would be very surprised if the cut-off time falls below 8:00 at this point in the season. The biggest and most competitive meets are behind us and I don’t think we will see many more elite times or “time trial” style races.
Ian: I don’t think so. We’ve probably passed the time of the season where blazing fast performances are coming in dozens at meets like Boston University -- it will become more of a slow grind from here.
There are probably enough capable men to bring the NCAA #16 mark down to 7:59, but the setting probably won't present itself often enough to do so. What we will most likely see is some of the athletes on the national qualifying border aiming for that NCAA #16 mark with the help of teammates in some lower-key meets and the cut-off will squeeze down closer to 8:00, but still sit above it.
Gavin: Probably not, but the fact that this is even a possibility is wild to consider. I've learned to entirely readjust my understanding for what are "elite" or "nationally competitive" marks across the NCAA in this era. And any given race could bring another slew of fast times if the right combination of athletes and motivation coalesces.
Brianna Robles finished nearly 12 seconds ahead of Lindsay Cunningham over 5000 meters at Boston U. this past weekend. Does that performance alter your perception of the national title conversation in that event?
Marissa: No, not really.
It's true, Lindsay Cunningham is not putting up as dominant of performances as she was during cross country season, but there are probably underlying reasons for that. Plus, she still ran 16:05 (5k) and only lost to Brianna Robles at Boston U. when looking strictly at Division Two competition.
If that's Cunningham on a "bad" day, then I still think that she has a strong shot at winning the national title. The only thing that this past weekend altered for me is it might be a closer race than what I originally expected. Robles is in phenomenal shape, but I still think Cunningham will sneak away with the win.
Grace: I think both of these women are favorites in the event with Cunningham having a slight edge due to the fact that she won the event last year. Cunningham seems to have taken a much more gradual approach to her season this year, but I wouldn’t be surprised if her and Robles are neck and neck at the upcoming NCAA Indoor Championships.
Robles has more momentum at the moment, but Cunningham has the better track record when it comes to the two competing against each other. Cunningham also thrives when she is able to be a front-runner and control the pace, so the loaded race at Boston U. didn’t play to her strengths as much.
Ian: No, it doesn't necessarily change my idea of who or how many women are favored in the 5k. I think Cunningham will certainly still be able to contend at the national meet regardless of her latest performance, and there are plenty of other talented runners who are still in the mix, including Robles.
I do, however, think we should reconsider naming Cunningham as such a heavy favorite as she was before, but she is still one of the favorites for the national title without a doubt.
Gavin: I don't think it changes my idea of who should be favored, but it does change how many favorites/contenders there are. Entering this month, the 5k was Cunningham's race to lose. She is, after all, the reigning champion over this distance both indoors and outdoors.
But we've seen enough of a sample size -- with her losing this race and to teammate Kaylee Beyer in a 3k -- to suggest that it wouldn't no shock if she was defeated in her final D2 indoor national meet appearance before moving on to the University of Wisconsin.
In my eyes, Robles should have almost equal national title odds as we head towards March.
Which was the most surprising of the four D2 distance records broken so far this season (men’s 3k, women’s 3k, women’s DMR or men’s 5k)? Which was the least surprising?
Marissa: The most surprising record was the women’s 3k.
Hyde definitely had the ability to break that record after her converted mile of 4:37, but I had no idea that she was going to run that far under the previous 3k record. Becoming the first woman in Division Two history to ever run under nine minutes for 3000 meters is pretty incredible. Plus, Beyer ran 9:06 for that same distance which tied the previous record.
The least surprising record for me was the men’s 3k. Knowing that Coca, Scomparin and Chahid were going to be in that race -- and that Coca had already put up a massive converted mile time this winter -- I was confident the record was going down.
Grace: Gracie Hyde’s 3k record was the most surprising by far.
Not just for the fact that she broke it, but for the fact that she obliterated that time and made Division Two history by going under the nine-minute mark. That might have been the most impressive effort of the season and we haven’t even hit the postseason.
The least surprising record to me was the men’s 3k as well. I kind of expected that record to fall at some point this season simply due to the overall progression of talent and times from year to year.
Ian: The men’s 5k record has been broken repeatedly in recent years to the point where we can almost expect it to fall, so it’s not incredibly surprising that it was broken this season.
As Marissa and Grace said, it was really Hyde breaking the 3k record that surprised us the most. There is some all-time elite company at the top of that all-time D2 list, so it’s not like the previous record was particularly weak or beatable -- and she still went a full eight seconds under it! That is almost unheard of.
Except, at the same meet, in the men’s 3k, Coca ran a full six seconds faster than the previous record held by Christian Noble who is obviously no slouch.
I think the men's 3k record is being underrated a little bit, especially considering that it’s arguably the most impressive Division Two record on the men’s side. However, I do still think that Hyde taking down the women's 3k record was more surprising.
Gavin: That women's 3k record is likely the most impressive of the bunch given how far under the previous mark Hyde went, but Legendre breaking the 5k record with a 13:24 mark probably caught me even more by surprise given how early in the season it came -- on December 2nd.
Sure, I thought Legendre was capable of running around 13:30 on a perfect day, but he made himself arguably the new national title favorite over 5000 meters after not even finishing as a cross country All-American less than a month prior.
I expected Coca to break the 3k record entering his race at Boston U. But considering that we didn't even know that he'd be racing this season until late January, I'll say that the women's DMR is the least surprising of the new records.
Adams State is a historically stacked distance program with insane depth and Hyde's emergence made a record in that relay a more likely proposition than not in my eyes.
