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PREDICTIONS: Texas 6A XC State Championships

  • Writer: Donald Speas
    Donald Speas
  • Oct 28, 2024
  • 4 min read

Predictions & analysis by Donny Speas, edits & commentary via Garrett Zatlin

Year in and year out, athletes from Texas catch our attention after dropping a blazing-fast time and/or setting a new course record.


Naturally, we wanted to make sure we took the time to highlight some athletes from the Lone Star State before their state meet takes place this Friday.


While just about all of Texas's six divisions hold at least some national-caliber talent, we will only be focusing on the 6A classification in this article (apologies in advance to Houston Christian, Elizabeth Leachman and Miles Westbrook).

Girl's Individual Race (5k)

  1. Macy Wingard (Denton Braswell) - 16:52

  2. Maya Easterwood (Coppell) -17:00

  3. Adeline Bennett (Flower Mound) - 17:18

  4. Alexandra Fox (Flower Mound) - 17:19

  5. Jamie Klander (Katy Mayde Creek) - 17:24

  6. Alexis Garza (Tomball Memorial) - 17:28

  7. Adelynn Rodriguez (El Paso Eastwood) - 17:36

  8. Lily Fawcett (Bridgeland) - 17:40

  9. Clare Boneau (Keller) - 17:42

  10. Reyna Heisser (Northwest Nelson) - 17:43


Analysis: At this point in the 2024 cross country season, two Texas 6A athletes have broken the 17-minute barrier for 5000 meters. Those two girls would be Denton Braswell's Macy Wingard and Coppell's Maya Easterwood.


Lucky for us, we've had the privilege of watching this duo face-off on a couple of occasions this season, with their most recent matchup coming at their regional championship on October 22nd. There, Wingard won by seven seconds over her in-state rival.


Once you consider Wingard's undefeated season, then you can see why this Denton Braswell junior (who, on a completely random note, seems like a perfect fit for the BYU Cougars) is my pick for the win.


One additional pair of runners to keep an eye on is the Flower Mound duo of Adeline Bennett and Alexandra Fox. Those two young women have been tested against the nation's best (more on them later).


Finally, I wanted to make sure I got Bridgeland's Lily Fawcett on your radar. She recently ran a massive personal best at her regional championship. If she can keep this momentum going, then she very well could surprise us and capture a legacy-defining top-three finish this Friday.


Boy's Individual Race:

  1. Caden Leonard (Southlake Carroll) - 14:40

  2. Ruel Newberry (Denton Guyer) - 14:43

  3. Hudson Haley (Austin Vandegrift) - 14:46

  4. Aidan Danny Torres (El Paso Eastwood) -14:50

  5. Kai McCullough (Austin Vandegrift) - 14:52

  6. Matthias Peterson (Northwest Nelson) - 14:55

  7. Benjamin Montgomery (Bridgeland) - 14:55

  8. Joaquin De La Cruz (McKinney Boyd) - 14:58

  9. Graham Scott (Waxahachie) - 15:00

  10. Cooper Grady (Waxahachie) -15:01


Analysis: There are a whopping 15 individuals entered in this race with 5k seasonal bests under 15 minutes. Needless to say, I think this race is sure to be a fast one.


The fastest of the bunch is Southlake Carroll's Caden Leonard, whose personal best for the 5000-meter distance currently stands at 14:33, the fastest time in the country for the Class of 2026. Leonard has only lost once this season, recording a 4th place finish at the loaded Woodbridge XC Classic back in September. For that reason, he takes the top spot in our predictions.


One set of athletes to keep an eye on is Austin Vandegrift's top-two runners, Hudson Haley and Kai McCullough. Both Haley and McCullough have demonstrated that they are serious threats for a top finish in this field, especially with a potential team title on the line.


The final athlete who I want to highlight is Denton Guyer freshman, Ruel Newberry. Despite his youth, he has already achieved four sub-15:00 clockings over 5000 meters and very well might pull off the upset. That, in turn, would solidify his case as the best freshman nationwide.


Girl's Team Race:

  1. Flower Mound Jaguars

  2. Northwest Nelson Bobcats

  3. Southlake Carroll Dragons

  4. Bridgeland Bears

  5. Katy Tigers


Analysis: Here's a crazy statistic for you to digest: Texas has a mind-boggling 18 teams that have an average of under 19 minutes for 5000 meters. That's more than the states of Utah and Colorado...combined.


Anyways, Flower Mound is a really really good team. The Jaguars' top-duo of Adeline Bennett and Alexandra Fox can go toe-to-toe with any team in the country, and their third and fourth scorers (Ava Cole and Liana Cluley-Garza) typically aren't too far behind.


I put them at our TSR #2 position in our top-25 team rankings for a reason.


Yet, despite the dominance that Flower Mound might exude on paper, I have a gut feeling that this race will still be one worth watching. Both Northwest Nelson and Southlake Carroll have spent some time in our top-25 rankings and are capable of pulling off an upset on a perfect day.


Out of those two squads, I'm a little higher on Northwest Nelson as low-stick Reyna Heisserer could very well be a top-10 individual finisher. Oh, and the Bobcats have a lethal seven-second spread between their second and fifth scorers.


Boy's Team Race

  1. Austin Vandegrift Vipers

  2. Southlake Carroll Dragons

  3. Bridgeland Bears

  4. Waxahachie Indians

  5. Northwest Nelson Bobcats


Analysis: I've had this race circled on my calendar for quite some time. In my semi-professional opinion, this is the most competitive state meet that we'll see this cross country season (at least on the boy's side).


The headliner is Austin Vandegrift (TSR #4) versus Southlake Carroll (TSR #5). The latter has the faster low-stick in Caden Leonard, but the former has a more complete top-four. In my mind, the battle for the team title will probably come down to how well Austin Vandegrift's fifth scorer fare on Friday (more than likely Jackson Stafford or Jack Ebeier).


Behind the projected top-two squads, you have a Bridgeland Bears lineup that I've been incredibly high on since August.


Bridgeland is currently undefeated during their fall campaign. And while I don't think that they'll pull off an upset win, this will still be a huge opportunity to see how the Bears (and front-runner Benjamin Montgomery) stack up against a few of the country's very best.


To cap it all off, the trio of Northwest Nelson, El Paso Eastwood and Waxahachie have all looked wonderful at various points this year. All three teams are certainly capable of breaking into the top-three (and into the top-25 portion of our national team rankings) on a good day.

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