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PREDICTIONS: Utah 6A XC State Championships

  • Writer: Donald Speas
    Donald Speas
  • Oct 28, 2024
  • 4 min read

Predictions & analysis by Donny Speas, edits & commentary via Garrett Zatlin

Attentive readers of The Stride Report will know that I am a Utah native. As such, I consequently might have a "slight" bias towards the Beehive State and will never pass on an opportunity to write about the uber-competitive races that take place within it's borders.


Luckily for fans of the sport, this year's race features four teams ranked in our top-25 lists, in addition to a couple of our "Honorable Mention" and "Just Missed" teams.


Basically, this race is seething with top talent, both individually and team-wise.


While I wish we could cover every division, but we will solely be focusing on the 6A division, so my apologies to the talent in the smaller divisions (I'm looking at you Jane Hedengren, Kyle Steadman and the Taylorsville Warriors)

Girl's Individual Race (5k)

  1. Maya Bybee (Lone Peak) - 17:49

  2. Boston Bybee (Lone Peak) - 17:55

  3. Skye Jensen (American Fork) - 18:03

  4. Zoey Nilsson (Lone Peak) - 18:37

  5. Ava McMurtrey (Lone Peak) - 18:40

  6. Brooklyn Tarr (Mountain Ridge) - 18:41

  7. Ellie Dorius (Farmington) - 18:42

  8. Maci Woolf (Herriman) - 18:47

  9. Brielle Nilsson (Lone Peak) - 18:50

  10. Claire Hoenes (Herriman) - 18:52


Analysis: One possible title for this race could easily be, "The Battle of the Bybee Sisters". The favorite for the individual win is Lone Peak's Maya Bybee who holds the fastest seasonal best over 5000 meters. She comes in with a blazing time of 17:36 for that distance.


However, it would be completely foolish to discount the other Bybee sister, Boston. Boston Bybee has only raced once this fall, earning a 2nd-place finish at the TwiKnight Invitational behind only her sister. With track personal bests of 4:47 (1600) and 10:43 (3200), it would be a mistake to count out Boston Bybee's chance at the individual win.


As far as the top non-Bybee (or Lone Peak) runner goes, my money is on American Fork's sophomore sensation, Skye Jensen. The second-year high school standout has picked up three wins on the year, and is undefeated against athletes not named Bybee. Could this be her big race that elevates her to an even higher tier of distance running excellence?


Boy's Individual Race (5k)

  1. Kaden Evans (American Fork) - 15:15

  2. Jackson Spencer (Herriman) - 15:20

  3. Carter Moore (American Fork) - 15:21

  4. Tayshaun Ogomo (Herriman) - 15:21

  5. Jonah Tang (Herriman) - 15:30

  6. Edward Fuller (Skyridge) - 15:32

  7. Micah Tang (Herriman) - 15:34

  8. Noah Manwaring (Herriman) - 15:35

  9. Cooper Bybee (Lone Peak) - 15:41

  10. Tyler Palmer (Lone Peak) - 15:43


Analysis: This year's race is missing last year's TSR #1 recruit (and arguably one of the best prep long distance runners of all-time), Danny Simmons. However, this field is still highlighted by an American Fork superstar. This year, that would be Kaden Evans, the top returner from last year's race who is undefeated so far during this cross country season.


Evans' undefeated streak comes with one large caveat -- he has yet to race the Herriman boys. The Mustangs have a plethora of high-octane scorers with multiple athletes who are capable of taking the win on any given day.


Amongst the Mustang's elite cohort, my money is on Jackson Spencer to be the first Herriman runner to cross the line. Of course, we can't count out someone like Tayshaun Ogomo for the win, either, especially with his amazing foot-speed.


A couple of other athletes to keep an eye on are Cooper Bybee and Tyler Palmer from Lone Peak and Edward Fuller of Skyridge, all of whom could sneak into the top-five on a great day.


Girl's Team Race

  1. Lone Peak Knights

  2. Herriman Mustangs

  3. American Fork Cavewomen

  4. Riverton Silverwolves

  5. Westlake Thunder


Analysis: Yeah...this is Lone Peak's race to lose.


In addition to the previously mentioned Bybee sisters, the Lone Peak Knights have a whopping five athletes who have run under 19 minutes for 5000 meters (Zoey Nilsson, Ava McMurtrey, Brielle Nilsson, Paytin Rohatinsky and Tatum Bybee.) They are, after all, our TSR #4 team for a reason.


Barring a catastrophe, the Lone Peak Knights will repeat as state champions.


After Lone Peak, the team standings get really interesting. On paper, Herriman should be favored for the runner-up spot, holding the second-fastest 5k average in the state (19:01). However, they recently lost to the Riverton Silverwolves by seven points at the Region Two XC Championships.


Then, of course, we have the American Fork Cavewoman, who are always present at the very top of the Utah cross country landscape. They took a 2nd-place finish to Lone Peak, earlier this season at the TwiKnight Invitational. They may be slightly better than some people realize...


Boy's Team Race

  1. Herriman Mustangs

  2. American Fork Cavemen

  3. Lone Peak Knights

  4. Riverton Silverwolves

  5. Skyridge Eagles


Analysis: As much as I want to build up anticipation that this race will be a close one (partially out of nostalgia for how awesome last year's race was), I simply can't see that happening in 2024. I'm predicting that Herriman puts five guys in the top-10 and I could argue that this was something of a conservative estimate.


Herriman should cruise through this race with minimal difficulty. Barring a total collapse, the Mustangs should win their first cross country state title under Coach Doug Soles


Behind Herriman, it looks like the top school should be the American Fork Cavemen who are fresh off wins at their divisional and regional championships.


We know that Kaden Evans and Carter Moore will be a force up front (and may very well put American Fork in front of Herriman through two runners), but I would have liked to see a little bit more from the Cavemen's backend scorers this season before I'm confident enough to put them in front of the Mustangs.

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