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PREDICTIONS & PREVIEWS: 2024 D3 Pre-Nationals
- TSR Collaboration
- Oct 3, 2024
- 9 min read
Written by Conor Day & Kevin Fischer, edits & additional commentary via Gavin Struve
A couple of weeks ago, a number of the top nation's Division Three cross country programs made the trek to Terre Haute, Indiana for the John McNichols Invitational. On Friday night, the same course will play host to another crop of elite D3 teams, this time for the Pre-Nationals meet.
That means those who didn't compete at the John McNichols Invitational will have a chance to get a taste of national competition on the course that will also host the 2024 NCAA D3 XC Championships later next month.
DISCLAIMER: D3 writer Conor Daly currently competes for Washington U. He will be racing in the men's field at this meet. He was responsible for the women's preview and predictions portions of this article.
Men’s Preview
In terms of the team race, the men's contingent appears to be a bit deeper than the women's side, both in number of teams and quality. The tantalizing field coming into town is headlined by four of our preseason top-10 teams: UW-Whitewater (TSR #4), Pomona-Pitzer (TSR #7), George Fox (TSR #8) and Washington U. (TSR #9), along with an "Honorable Mention" squad in MIT.
UW-Whitewater should be the favorite to secure gold if everybody performs up to expectations. A 1-2 finish from Warhawk seniors Christian Patzka and Gunner Schlender is a highly possible result, maybe even probable, and key scoring teammate Dan Anderson started his fall campaign off in a really promising way.
The question for the Warhawks then becomes whether their backend guys can hold their own in a larger, talented field. Chris Allen, Alex Metko, Tucker Johnson and Connor Murphy finished 6-7-8-9, respectively, among attached runners at the Tom Hoffman Invitational, all finishing within eight seconds of each other., but 40 seconds behind Anderson.
That gap after Anderson will have to shrink just a tad for UW-Whitewater to come away with the team win here, but that seems reasonable to expect given the sub-15:00 (5k) pedigree of all of those depth pieces.
With several of George Fox’s top returners struggling to replicate the form they showed at last year’s cross country national meet, it seems unlikely that they will challenge for the team title this weekend. Alex Petersen and Alex Mills, who both finished in the top-80 at the national meet last fall, recorded underwhelming finishes relative to expectations at their season opener in August and have not raced since.
Austin Gappa and Aidan Arthur performed better in that setting and may be the top finishers for George Fox this weekend. However, even with great days from those two, it’s hard to envision the Bruins finishing atop the team standings if they all race how they did in their opener.
That, of course, is not to say that the Warhawks don’t face serious threats. In fact, this hunt for the team win looks like a three-horse race between UW-Whitewater, Pomona-Pitzer, and Washington U.
The Sagehens and the Bears actually have pretty similarly constructed lineups to each other. Both have four individuals with realistic prospects of a top-20 finish this weekend, and both squads are headlined by a superstar ranked among our preseason top-20 individuals. For the Sagehens, that leader is Cameron Hatler.
After an iffy opener back in August, Hatler came storming back with an impressive 24th-place finish at the UC Riverside Invitational against a daunting field full of Division One talent. Fellow Sagehens Quinn White and Owen Kobett impressed too, finishing within 15 seconds behind Hatler. While Jack Stein had a tougher day, his showing at Cal State Fullerton’s Mark Covert Classic three weeks prior indicates that he can be right with those guys as a key backend scorer.
As for Washington U., it's Cullen Capuano leading the Bears into battle, with Matthew Hornung and Conor Daly in tow. Capuano placed 13th on this same course at the loaded John McNichols Invitational, which was a solid showing in line with the consistency he has displayed over the years.
If you glanced at Washington U’s finish at that meet and wondered what happened, the answer is pretty simple...outside of Capuano, a lot of their key contributors simply didn’t race. Hornung, who finished alongside Capuano at an intra-squad meet in August, and 14:27 (5k) man Daly, are both primed for high finishes at Pre-Nationals after sitting out the Bears' first trip to Terre Haute.
The x-factor for Washington U. is Andrew Sidamonn-Eristoff, the 44th-place finisher at the 2021 cross country national meet. He has had some ups and downs and has not competed yet this fall, but it would be a huge boost if he's racing and at his best this weekend.
Ultimately, between the Sagehens and the Bears, the team with the better shot at taking the win this weekend will be the team who rounds out their scoring lineup better. Both squads have a few names who could serve as that critical fifth runner. We will be looking primarily at Peter Neid in that role on the Pomona-Pitzer side and Alexander Gadin on the Washington U. side.
But even with great days from all involved, it will be a difficult task for either of these teams to overcome the dynamism of UW-Whitewater. We expect the Warhawks’ backend to do just enough to hold on for the win.
As for the individual race, Patzka is a pretty heavy favorite. Beyond him, it opens up a little bit. As mentioned, a 1-2 finish between him and Schlender is the most likely scenario on paper. Hatler and Capuano appear to be the next-best challengers to that duo.
There are several other names in the field who have been either All-Americans on the grass or NCAA Championships qualifiers on the track. One interesting individual to highlight is Haverford senior Peter LaRochelle, who figures to be motivated by a different kind of team implication than an outright win.
The Fords are a bubble team for the cross country national meet, and LaRochelle, who placed 35th at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships, can cut off some precious extra points for his squad with a finish toward the top of this field.
Men's Team Predictions
UW-Whitewater Warhawks
Pomona-Pitzer Sagehens
Washington U. Bears
George Fox Bruins
MIT Engineers
UC Santa Cruz Banana Slugs
Haverford Fords
Loras Duhawks
U. of Chicago Maroons
Lewis & Clark Pioneers
Men's Individual Predictions
Christian Patzka (UW-Whitewater)
Gunner Schlender (UW-Whitewater)
Cameron Hatler (Pomona-Pitzer)
Cullen Capuano (Washington U.)
Peter LaRochelle (Haverford)
Noah Tobin (Wilmington (OH))
Quinn White (Pomona-Pitzer)
Anthony Rodriguez (Babson)
Matthew Hornung (Washington U.)
Evan Markelz (Lewis & Clark)
Caden Schneider (UW-Platteville)
Owen Kobett (Pomona-Pitzer)
Conor Daly (Washington U.)
Dan Anderson (UW-Whitewater)
Dylan May (Southern Virginia)
Henry Hardart (MIT)
Conor Havens (Manchester)
Jack Stein (Pomona-Pitzer)
Andrew Sidamon-Eristoff (Washington U.)
Aidan Arthur (George Fox)
Women’s Preview
Individual favorite Evelyn Battleson-Gunkel enters this race looking to lead U. of Chicago to their first big-time win of the season after finishing runner-up to Colorado College at the John McNichols Invitational a few weeks back.
No, the Colorado College women won’t be back in Terre Haute this weekend, but I imagine that the Maroons would love to get back in the winning column all the same.
Many of the Maroon women already raced on this course in that outing, but three of the team’s varsity runners didn’t compete at that meet and instead ran at a less competitive meet the day prior. Naturally, we were left scratching our heads a bit.
Freshman Rose Wiltse won the ONU Midwest Classic, a performance which suggests that she could be a major contributor this season. This weekend will be very telling of whether the former Montana prep star will have an instant impact on her Windy City-based squad.
Behind the rookie in that race was 2023 cross country All-American Elisabeth Camic and sub-17:00 (5k) talent Sophie Tedesco. With the injection of this scoring trio, the Maroons (our TSR #2 preseason team) should be well above this field.
But that team title won’t be won without a challenge from MIT.
After a very strong 2023 fall campaign thanks to the efforts of six underclassmen, the Engineer women will look to prove that they are translating their promising youth into stars of the present. With immense upside, they’re an easy lineup to believe in.
Even though we expect that Gillian Roeder will remain absent from competition after not seeing her race in 360 days, juniors Kate Sanderson and Lexi Fernandez are a pair of reliable low-sticks who are experienced at the national level and should be top-10 names in this field.
Beyond that leading duo, there’s a handful of MIT women whose resumes far surpass the requisite credentials of middle-lineup and backend pieces. Rujuta Sane had a breakout track season where she ran 16:54 (5k), while Christina Crow was the 83rd-place finisher at last year’s cross country national meet. Liv Girand finished alongside Sane and Crow in MIT’s season opener, making for phenomenal backend scoring support.
Although the Engineers enter this weekend at TSR #7, there are avenues for them to beat U. of Chicago. They definitely have the talent to do so.
After placing 6th (among Division Three schools) at the John McNichols Invitational, Washington U. enters this meet with a strong contingent of their own. Their leading quartet of Jillian Heth, Julia Patterson, Abigail Patterson and Katie Rector was solid at the John McNichols Invitational, finishing 10th, 16th, 19th and 24th (among D3 individuals), respectively.
Without a superstar low-stick on the Bears' roster, each of those women will need to be just a bit better to level up this team. They are the leading candidates for that 3rd-place team finish.
Other teams favored for a top-five finish are George Fox and Central College.
After missing almost all of the 2024 track seasons, George Fox standout Kayla Aalpoel has continued to be absent this fall. For the purpose of predictions, we are assuming that she will not be racing.
Even though Aalpoel’s potential absence lowers the Bruins' ceiling, they'll remain competitive thanks to half-mile specialist Ellie Rising and junior Breanna Schmitt, the latter of whom may be in the midst of a breakout season. The George Fox women have respectable depth, but feel unlikely to place much higher than 4th in this field.
Unlike most programs in this field, Central College has not yet raced this fall. After losing their two focal stars, Caroline McMartin and Megan Johnson, it will be interesting to see the Dutch's new look.
The Dutch return a nice trio who we feel very good about: Addy Parrott was a cross country All-American last fall, while middle lineup names such as Kira Hooper and Leah Bontrager have enjoyed reasonable success of their own.
The x-factor to Central College’s success will be the performances of Peyton Steffen and Teah Miller. The former is established in the middle distances, but not as much on the cross country course, at least not yet. The latter is a transfer from Luther College.
Now a sophomore, Miller could conceivably finish around Parrott and Hooper based off of her results from last fall. That, however, is far from a guarantee considering that it’s 12 months later and Miller is now in a different training situation.
DePauw is a team that is fighting to be in that same conversation as George Fox and Central College.
Sophie Porter, a national qualifier in the 5k and the 10k, hasn’t had the quickest start to her season. At her best, she’s a top-five name in this race. But even if she doesn’t look 100% at this point, she and teammate Lily Monnett are a pair who should be in the second pack in this field. Add in stable names Brynn Urban and Kendall Mann, and DePauw holds a fairly high floor.
UC-Santa Cruz is a team who wasn’t even in our preseason “Honorable Mentions” category and is far better than they get credit for. They’re a sleeper pick for a top-five team finish.
The Banana Slugs are similar to DePauw in that they have two women who are top-20 names in this field on a good day. Those individuals are 11:09 steeplechaser Kenzie Seymour and Helena Janku, the 9th-place finisher at the 2023 West Regional XC Championships. The remainder of their team's scorers are largely unproven at this level, but could be due for a breakthrough as a group.
There are several contenders in the individual race who haven’t yet been mentioned with a team. The most notable is Faith Duncan (Wilmington (OH)), who became an instant celebrity on the Division Three scene when she upset Fiona Smith for the 5k national title at the 2024 NCAA Outdoor Championships. She is the only name who has the upside to take down Battleson-Gunkel.
There’s also Deyanneira Colon Maldonado of Aurora and Riley Buese of Lewis & Clark. Each holds a personal best of 16:34 (5k) and has been a top-half All-American on the track. Both of these accomplished veterans are already in the win column this fall and likely enter this race expecting a top-five individual finish.
A less obvious contender for a top-five result is Rachel Brennan of Gordon. The 10k national qualifier is off to a hot start this fall after picking up a pair of convincing wins. This could be the continuation of a breakout season for her.
Women's Team Predictions
U. of Chicago Maroons
MIT Engineers
Washington U. Bears
UC Santa Cruz Banana Slugs
Central College Dutch
George Fox Bruins
DePauw Tigers
Connecticut College Camels
Centre Colonels
Pomona-Pitzer Sagehens
Women's Individual Predictions
Evelyn Battleson-Gunkel (U. of Chicago)
Faith Duncan (Wilmington (OH))
Rachel Brennan (Gordon)
Riley Buese (Lewis & Clark)
Kate Sanderson (MIT)
Deyanneira Colon Maldonado (Aurora)
Lexi Fernandez (MIT)
Addy Parrott (Central College)
Stephanie Ager (Wesleyan)
Rose Wiltse (U. of Chicago)
Ellie Rising (George Fox)
Kenzie Seymour (UC Santa Cruz)
Sophie Porter (DePauw)
Rujuta Sane (MIT)
Elisabeth Camic (U. of Chicago)
Jillian Heth (Washington U.)
Helena Janku (UC Santa Cruz)
Paige Anderson (Kalamazoo)
Breanna Schmitt (George Fox)
Sophie Tedesco (U. of Chicago)
