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PREDICTIONS & PREVIEWS: 2024 Boston U. Season Opener
The Boston University Sharon Colyear-Danvile Season Opener is annually one of the most competitive meets in the country for distance runners. In fact, one could argue that, with the exception of the national meet, it is consistently the most competitive meet of the entire indoor track season!
That trend will likely continue in 2024 as Boston U. plays host to a variety of collegiate superstars. Among those superstars are the two most recent NCAA D1 cross country individual national champions.
Below, we highlighted the top collegiate names in each of the distance fields. Plus, at the bottom of this article, you can find our full predictions for each distance event.
Let's get into it, shall we?
Women's 5k: Can Doris Lemngole Break the 15:00 Barrier?
The men's and women's 5k are often considered to be the "marquee" races each and every year at the Boston U. Season Opener. And based on the current entries, that narrative will be no different come Saturday.
Alabama's Doris Lemngole is fresh off of winning the cross country individual national title a couple of weeks ago. It was an appropriate end to what had been a downright dominant season. And with that win, we're now led to believe that Lemngole's fitness is at an all-time high.
So...what does that mean for Saturday?
Tomorrow's 5k race will be fast. In fact, it will likely be a time trial-type of environment like it always is. Thankfully for Lemngole, that is exactly the type of race that she prefers. Throughout her short time in the NCAA, the Alabama runner has proven to be at her best when she is being aggressive and when the pace is hot from the gun.
With a 15:04 (5k) PR from last winter (which was set on this same Boston U. track), one has to believe that Lemngole can realistically set a new PR on Saturday. Of course, the only questions is, how far under her PR will she go?
It seems fair to suggest that Lemngole can go under the 15-minute barrier on Saturday. However, having her go any faster than 14:58 or 14:59 seems like it would be a very aggressive prediction.
Yes, we did see Parker Valby run 14:52 on the indoor oval last winter (and 14:56 at this same meet). However, an all-time elite talent can make it hard to remember just how challenging it is to run under 15:00 for 5000 meters (especially on the indoor oval).
Of course, Lemngole won't be the only collegiate superstar headlining this field. That's because New Mexico's Pamela Kosgei and Florida's Hilda Olemomoi are also listed in the 5k entries. Those two women were considered to be the only legitimate threats to Lemngole for NCAA gold. And at the national meet, that sure looked like the case.
It's important to remember that, throughout last year, Olemomoi was just as good as Lemngole was in the longer distance races. She is another runner who thrives in time trial-esque settings. And while Lemngole will be favored, Olemomoi still remains as a legitimate threat for an upset.
The same can be said for Kosgei, although there is maybe less certainty behind that statement.
The New Mexico star is arguably just as fit as Lemngole and Olemomoi (or at least, she is in the same tier). However, we have never seen her compete on the indoor oval and her 5k PR of 16:20 (from 2022) isn't anywhere close to what she is truly capable of.
As we dive deeper into the entries, the number of star-caliber runners expands. Stanford's Amy Bunnage is also in this race. She was 4th at the NCAA XC Championships. However, more importantly, she ran 15:11 for 5000 meters last winter.
In theory, an improved version of Bunnage (which is what we saw two weeks ago) should better her 5k PR. And if that happens, then the Aussie distance star should be within striking distance of Olemomoi, Kosgei and maybe even Lemngole.
NC State's Grace Hartman and Georgetown's Chloe Scrimgeour are arguably the most complete 5k runners in this field behind Lemngole, Olemomoi and Kosgei. Both women have thrived at this distance and have earned multiple All-American honors on the track.
Scrimgeour wasn't quite at 100% this past fall, so expecting her to scare the 15:20 barrier on Saturday may be a bit much. Even so, both her and Hartman should be able to navigate this 5k field fairly well.
Paityn Noe (Arkansas), Brenda Tuwei (Alabama) and Sadie Sigfstead (Villanova) are three names who showcased tremendous raw talent this past fall. And aerobically, this race should favor their strengths.
However, it's Noe who is the most experienced against the likes of Lemngole and Olemomoi. She still has plenty of youth-based upside and her momentum is among the best in this field. Noe has found success on the track before and we don't see that changing this weekend.
Men's 5k: Can Graham Blanks Go Sub-13:00 for 5k?
Among collegiates, the favorite in this field is undoubtedly Graham Blanks, the Harvard superstar who won his second individual cross country national title two weeks ago. The Ivy League runner is returning to Boston U. after briefly setting the NCAA 5k record at this same meet last year (running 13:03 in the process).
While there are a ton of elite collegians and accomplished pros littered throughout this field, it's hard to find someone who can match the best version of Blanks. Notably absent from these 5k entries are Habtom Samuel (New Mexico), Solomon Kipchoge (Texas Tech), Casey Clinger (BYU) and Parker Wolfe (North Carolina).
It's still possible that the pacers in this field will position Blanks to go under the 13-minute barrier on Saturday. However, as I just explained above, it's easy to throw around sub-13:00 (5k) predictions after seeing an all-time elite superstar like Nico Young run somewhat comfortably under that barrier last year (in 12:57).
The biggest challenger amongst collegians in this field will likely be Brian Musau from the Oklahoma State. Despite fading to 5th place at the NCAA XC Championships, the Cowboy star still proved to be among the most elite distance runners in the NCAA this year.
Remember, Musau is a guy who has taken down Habtom Samuel twice in the last year (once on the grass and once in a 5k battle at the Bryan Clay Invite). He also won the BIG 12 individual cross country title and, at least in my eyes, was considered a favorite to win NCAA gold two weekends ago.
Despite having a skillset that can make him competitive with virtually anyone, the raw aerobic strength of Blanks is undeniably better. And given that Saturday's battle will feature an aggressive pace from the gun, it's hard to see Musau hanging with Blanks come the final lap or two.
Other names like Liam Murphy (Villanova), Drew Bosley (Northern Arizona), Romain Legendre (Adams State), Bob Liking (Wisconsin) Denis Kipngetich (Oklahoma State) and Patrick Kiprop (Arkansas) will all have a shot of going under 13:20 for 5000 meters in this race.
You could maybe argue the same thing in favor of Marco Langon (Villanova), Matt Strangio (Portland) and possibly Dylan Schubert (Furman).
Of that group, Kiprop will likely be aggressive and push the pace at some point. Murphy, meanwhile, is the strongest option to emerge as the third-best collegian in this field. But the most interesting collegian in these entries is Drew Bosley who has been battling injuries for the last year. He didn't have any cross country eligibility remaining, making it challenging to figure out where his fitness is currently at.
Women's 3k: Mile Stars Move Up for NCAA Brawl
The top section of the women's 3000 meters should be incredibly entertaining. Unlike the 5k races, there doesn't appear to be any true singular favorite. And when looking at the collegians in this field, it feels like there are at least three women who could come out on top.
West Virginia veteran Ceili McCabe is likely the consensus favorite to be the top NCAA runner in this field. This is someone who has competed at this meet multiple times throughout her career and she has historically been excellent when doing so.
McCabe's current 3k PR of 8:50 is one of the faster marks in this field. Not only that, but you could also argue that she is at/near the peak form of her fitness right now! And given her proven mile prowess, McCabe's combination of turnover and strength can best be described as, "frighteningly good."
But funny enough, you could make a similar argument when it comes to Oregon's Silan Ayyildiz.
The Ducks' newest superstar has gained national recognition as of late thanks to her success in the longer distance events. Last spring, she ran 15:15 for 5000 meters and this past fall, she won the BIG 10 individual cross country title before placing 13th at the NCAA XC Championships.
However, Ayyildiz actually came into the NCAA as a miler -- and a fairly good one at that. Her PR over 1500 meters sits at 4:09 while her mile PR is 4:30. The Turkish distance ace is undoubtedly in the best shape of her life right now, meaning that she is likely primed to run faster than her current 3k PR of 8:54.
Of course, we just don't know by how much.
Virginia's Margot Appleton is likely the third contender for top collegiate honors in this field. However, her best races have typically come in the postseason. There's a good chance that she'll run a great time on Saturday, but her securing the win would likely be considered a "minor" upset.
From a skillset perspective, Appleton is just as good as McCabe and Ayyildiz. The Cavalier star has run 4:29 in the mile and 15:18 for 5000 meters. She is also a five-time All-American on the track (four times if you exclude the DMR).
In theory, Appleton should be able to hang with most of the women at the front of this field. By doing so, she should be able to somewhat comfortably surpass her 8:57 (3k) PR. However, when the final moves are being made late in the race, it will be interesting to see how Appleton responds.
Other women such as Amina Maatoug (Washington), Chloe Foerster (Washington), Shannon Flockhart (Providence), Melissa Riggins (Georgetown), Riley Chamberlain (BYU) and Klaudia Kazimierska (Oregon) are all names who have proven to be exceptional on the track. And yet, at the same time, many of these women have fairly big question marks surrounding them as we venture into Saturday's race.
Both Maatoug and Riggins are excellent mile/3k talents with elite range, but they neither woman looked like they were at 100% this past fall. Meanwhile, Foerster, Flockhart and Kazimierska are among the best milers in the NCAA, but they haven't moved up to the 3k distance that often.
Of that group, Chamberlain is probably the safest pick to emerge as a top-five collegian in this field. She was outstanding on the track last winter, has a skillset that makes her a perfect fit for the 3k and is coming off of her best cross country season yet.
Men's 3k: Wolfe vs Strand vs Kipkoech vs Martin vs Abdalla
From a competitiveness standpoint, you could argue that the top section of the men's 3k has the potential to be the most entertaining race of Saturday.
In my eyes, there are five collegians who could realistically come away with the win (or at the very least, emerge as the top collegian). Those men are Parker Wolfe (North Carolina), Ethan Strand (North Carolina), Justine Kipkoech (Eastern Kentucky), Gary Martin (Virginia) and Yaseen Abdalla (Arkansas).
Some may argue that Wolfe is the favorite in this field. And while I completely understand where those people are coming from, I'm not sure I feel quite as confident in that.
Wolfe was outstanding in the early portions of the fall months. However, a foot injury caused him to miss three weeks of training. And despite him rallying to place 7th at the NCAA XC Championships, it seems fair to say that Wolfe has looked a bit more human over the last month and a half.
Of course, with a 7:37 (3k) PR which was run on this same Boston U. track, it's impossible to count out Wolfe from winning. He isn't dramatically far off from his original peak fitness.
Alongside Wolfe will be teammate Ethan Strand who has been electric over the last six months. After running 3:35 for 1500 meters and making it to the finals at the USA Olympic Trials, the North Carolina ace began to translate his fitness to the grass.
Strand capped a brilliant fall campaign with an 8th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships. And when you combine his elite mile prowess with his newfound aerobic strength, then you (theoretically) get a superstar 3k runner.
Sure, Strand's 3k PR sits at "only" 7:46, but it's clear that he's capable of so much more. Frankly, it would surprise me if he didn't break 7:40 on Saturday.
Eastern Kentucky's Justine Kipkoech is an interesting name. The Colonel star owns monstrous personal bests of 3:32 (1500) and 7:38 (3k), times that were both run on an outdoor track.
As far as raw fitness is concerned, Kipkoech is just as much of a threat for the win on Saturday as Wolfe and Strand are. And yet, we have never seen this EKU star compete on the indoor oval. Kipkoech is also fairly new to the NCAA racing scene, something that was plenty evident after recording a DNF at the cross country national meet two weekends ago.
We don't necessarily have any questions or concerns about Kipkoech's talent. We do, however, wonder how he'll fare when it comes to positioning and tactics on the indoor track circuit.
Gary Martin (Virginia) and Yaseen Abdalla (Arkansas) are two highly fascinating runners. Both men have flexed impressive range, especially Martin, and both men had outstanding ends to their 2024 cross country seasons.
At the NCAA XC Championships, Martin placed 13th overall after winning the ACC individual title earlier in the season. Abdalla, meanwhile, capped his fall campaign with a tremendous 4th place finish on the national stage.
Martin is better known for his mile prowess, having run 3:35 (1500) and 3:56 (mile) earlier in this calendar year. And with a 7:47 (3k) PR, his newfound aerobic strength from the fall months should make him a legitimate threat to win this race on Saturday.
As far as racing skillsets are concerned, Martin is maybe the best guy in this entire field.
Abdalla, meanwhile, has run 7:42 for 3000 meters twice in his career. He has also contested that event twice at the indoor national meet. Simply put, Arkansas' star transfer is among the more proven men in this field over the 3k distance.
When you consider that Abdalla's fitness reached new heights this fall (especially after placing 4th at the national meet), one has to believe that he is capable of running under 7:40 (3k) this weekend. However, whether or not he actually translates that cross country fitness and properly executes his race plan will determine whether or not he goes under the 7:40 barrier.
Quick Hits: Deep Mile Fields & Oregon Enters Koitatoi Kidali
Men's & Women's 800 Meters
The men's field is admittedly pretty thin on talent. We would expect the Penn State duo to go 1-2 and both dip under 1:50 (800). However, the women's 800-meter field is sneaky-deep. Meghan Hunter (BYU) and Sophia Gorriaran (Harvard) should give us a very entertaining early-season matchup that will likely be fairly honest.
Men's & Women's 1000 Meters
The women's field for the 1000 meters is admittedly nothing too exciting. However, the men's 1k field is stacked, especially with Oregon's newest superstar and Kenyan Olympian set to make his collegiate debut.
Koitatoi Kidali represented Kenya at the Olympics this past summer and boasts an 800-meter PR of 1:42. We admittedly don't know much about his prowess on the indoor oval, but his raw talent alone should be enough to secure this win. Behind him, talented guys from Washington and Georgetown should be able to take advantage of the likely-fast pace en route to some head-turning times.
Men's Mile
I have no idea which collegian will come out on top in the men's mile. There are five guys who I think could win this race. I think the Oklahoma State duo of Alex Stitt and Laban Kipkemboi are probably the safest names to choose, but I can envision a wide variety of scenarios playing out on Saturday.
Women's Mile
This isn't the best women's mile field that this meet has ever seen, but it's still very strong and fairly deep. There should be a number of women who crack the 4:40 barrier on Saturday. Oregon's Wilma Nielsen seems like the smartest and safest choice when it comes to predicting top collegiate honors. But after her, your guess is as good as mine as to what the order of this field will be.
FINAL PREDICTIONS
*Attached collegians only. Assumes that each runner is contesting an event fresh (i.e. not doubling back).
Men's 800 Meters
Oliver Desmeules (Penn State) - 1:48
Luke Seymour (Penn State) - 1:49
Levente Palvolgyi (Wingate) - 1:51
Charlie Glass (MIT) - 1:52
Aleix Lago (Wingate) - 1:52
Women's 800 Meters
Meghan Hunter (BYU) - 2:02
Sophia Gorriaran (Harvard) - 2:03
Kaylie Politza (Oklahoma State) - 2:05
Regina Mpigachai (Northern Colorado) - 2:05
Krystie Solomon (BYU) - 2:05
Men's 1000 Meters
Koitatoi Kidali (Oregon) - 2:18
Justin O'Toole (Washington) - 2:19
Gabriele Angiono (Georgetown) - 2:20
Kyle Reinheimer (Washington) - 2:21
Shamiso Sikaneta (Boston U.) - 2:23
Women's 1000 Meters
Gwen Parks (Cornell) - 2:49
Skyler Smith (Albany) - 2:56
Katja Jackson (Cornell) - 2:57
Kiera Hall (Providence) - 3:00
Shelby MacIsaac (UNC Reds) - 3:05
Men's Mile
Alex Stitt (Oklahoma State) - 3:57
Laban Kipkemboi (Oklahoma State) - 3:57
Conor Murphy (Virginia) - 3:57
Tinoda Matsatsa (Georgetown) - 3:58
Foster Malleck (Boston U.) - 3:58
Women's Mile
Wilma Nielsen (Oregon) - 4:34
Sivan Auerbach (Oklahoma State) - 4:36
Hayley Kitching (Penn State) - 4:36
Ali Ince (Oregon) - 4:37
Kaiya Robertson (Boise State) - 4:38
Men's 3000 Meters
Ethan Strand (North Carolina) - 7:38
Parker Wolfe (North Carolina) - 7:38
Gary Martin (Virginia) - 7:39
Yaseen Abdalla (Arkansas) - 7:40
Nathan Green (Washington) - 7:44
Women's 3000 Meters
Ceili McCabe (West Virginia) - 8:43
Silan Ayyildiz (Oregon) - 8:46
Margot Appleton (Virginia) - 8:50
Riley Chamberlain (BYU) - 8:53
Chloe Foerster (Washington) - 8:54
Men's 5000 Meters
Graham Blanks (Harvard) - 13:01
Brian Musau (Oklahoma State) - 13:07
Liam Murphy (Villanova) - 13:13
Bob Liking (Wisconsin) - 13:17
Patrick Kiprop (Arkansas) - 13:19
Women's 5000 Meters
Doris Lemngole (Alabama) - 14:59
Hilda Olemomoi (Florida) - 15:05
Pamela Kosgei (New Mexico) - 15:06
Amy Bunnage (Stanford) - 15:10
Paityn Noe (Arkansas) - 15:18
