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PREDICTIONS & PREVIEWS: 2023 Boston U. Sharon Colyear-Danville Season Opener (Part Two)
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Dec 1, 2023
- 15 min read
Updated: Dec 2, 2023
Welcome back to Part Two of our Boston U. Season Opener preview! For those who don't know, we already gave an in-depth look at the men's and women's 5k races which will (likely) be the headline events tomorrow afternoon.
In order to get this preview out at a reasonable time while still previewing all of the other distance events (800, mile and 3k), I'm implementing our "three sentences or less" rule. In other words, I'll be listing many of the top seeds in each field and offering three or fewer sentences worth of analysis. Oh, and don't forget, we also put together some of our predictions which you can find here.
Let's begin...
*Final heats/sections have not yet been finalized at time of publication
Women's 800 Meters
*Collegiates and attached athletes only, three sentences or less of analysis
Sophia Gorriaran (Harvard)
The former high school middle distance superstar, who ran 2:00.58 for this distance as a prep talent, should be the clear and obvious favorite here. Yes, Meghan Hunter is a more experienced collegiate veteran, but the Harvard rookie is plenty familiar with top-tier competition and is more consistent at the highest levels of this event. I do, however, wonder if she'll actually contest the mile (which she's entered in) rather than the 800 meters.
Meghan Hunter (BYU)
Meghan Hunter has always been a good and solid middle distance talent, but her stunning postseason peak last spring -- running 2:01 for 800 meters in the finals of the national meet -- was a clear deviation from what her season had been up to that. With a modest 2:10 mark at this same meet last year, it's hard to know for sure what Hunter will be post on Saturday.
Isis Grant (Oklahoma State)
One of the more overlooked and underrated middle distance recruits in the country, Isis Grant enters this race with a 2:04 (800) PR which she ran back in June. In theory, she has a shot at winning this race, although given her youth and early-season rust, athletes in her position are usually highly variable in their performances, leaving us with plenty of uncertainty.
Kaylie Politza (Oklahoma State)
Compared to a few other women in this field, Kaylie Politza doesn't have personal bests that are going to blow you away. However, she's consistent, experienced and holds solid times of 2:07 (800) and 2:48 (1k). She may be more of a factor on Saturday than some people realize.
Men's 800 Meters
*Collegiates and attached athletes only, three sentences or less of analysis
Ethan Brouw (New Mexico)
I feel like Ethan Brouw is one of the more underappreciated middle distance talents in the NCAA. He hasn't reached a point where he's contending for an All-American honor yet, but he has a 1:47 (800) PR, is very experienced and is fairly consistent. The more exciting pre-race pick may be Tinoda Matsatsa, but Brouw is arguably just as good.
Tinoda Matsatsa (Georgetown)
The high school middle distance star is about to make his collegiate debut after an end-of-spring campaign which resulted in times of 1:47 (800) and 3:58 (mile). In terms of pure talent, Matsatsa is probably the best in this field, although it will be interesting to see how he fares against an experienced veteran like Brouw.
Joshua Peron (Georgetown)
Joshua Peron is entered with a seed time of 1:47 (800), but given his credentials, I have a feeling that he'll be acting as a rabbit, especially when you consider that he's also entered in the 300 meters.
Angel Luera (Dallas Baptist)
One of the biggest and best breakout names in Division Two last spring, Angel Luera produced a 1:48 PR and finished 4th at the D2 outdoor national meet. After a strong fall campaign, this Dallas Baptist standout likely wanted to squeeze out whatever 2023 momentum he has left. That said, facing guys like Brouw and Matsatsa won't be that far off from some of the top names that Luera has faced previously.
Kerem Ayhan (Northeastern)
During his time with Lehigh, the newest Northeastern middle distance talent ran 1:48 for 800 meters at the tail-end of last spring. Ayhan had been running in the 1:49 range for a bit before dipping under that at Army West Point last May. But with a new program and a different season, it'll be interesting to see how this Husky talent is able to race against one of the more top-heavy heats that he's faced.
Collin Ochs (Rhode Island)
Admittedly, Collin Ochs has some room to improve when it comes to consistency. Even so, there are enough sneaky-strong times (including marks of 1:49 (800) and 4:05 (mile)) which suggest that he is talented enough to be competitive on Saturday. Of course, that will all depend on which version of Ochs we end up seeing.
Jesse Hayward (Northern Colorado)
I would argue that Jesse Hayward is probably favored for the 3rd place spot in this field. His 800 meter PR of 1:49.99 is hardly jaw-dropping, but he is quietly very consistent and he fared quite well in championship settings, specifically within the BIG Sky. Don't be surprised if he snags bronze tomorrow.
Women's Mile
*Collegiates and attached athletes only, three sentences or less of analysis
Klaudia Kazimierska (Oregon)
After an excellent string of mile and 1500 meter efforts last winter and spring, Klaudia Kazimierska should be primed for another year of success. In terms of experience, skillset, raw talent and her ability to change gears / respond to moves, this Oregon ace is certainly among the favorites to win this race. However, she'll have quite the battle on her hands when faced with Gabija Galvydyte.
Gabija Galvydyte (Oklahoma State)
In my opinion, Gabija Galvydyte is the favorite to win this race. She's one of the most lethal half-mile/mile specialists in the NCAA and she tied for gold in this same race last year. And after an end to her fall campaign where she looked as good as ever, taking down this Oklahoma State standout is going to be quite the task.
Angelina Napolean (NC State)
One of the nation's more college-ready talents from the Class of 2023, Angelina Napolean is a major x-factor in this race. She's an inexperienced rookie who is arguably at her best over 800 meters. However, with personal bests of 2:03 (800) and 4:20 (1500) from her high school days, Napolean could follow the pace to a new mile PR which eclipses her current 4:46 mark.
Elise Thorner (Florida)
Traditionally known for her steeplechase and cross country prowess, it should be acknowledged that Elise Thorner is a decent miler as well. She does, after all, hold a 4:15 (1500) personal best. But after a "just okay" cross country season, it's hard to know for sure if she'll play much of a role at the top of this field against women who are, a) more established in this event, and b) have looked a bit sharper as of late.
Gladys Chepngetich (Clemson)
This Clemson newcomer was fantastic on the grass this past fall, but I didn't necessarily expect her to drop down to the mile in her season debut for indoor track. Simply put, Gladys Chepngetich is a massive wild card in this field given her little-known resume in an event like the mile.
Lauren Freeland (Michigan State)
A standout mile and 1500 meter runner who is tactically sound, Lauren Freeland is due for a breakout race which matches her exceptional race IQ. That should be coming sooner rather than later given her better-than-expected cross country season.
Grace Boone (Oklahoma State)
This former Virginia Tech distance talent is sneaky-good, holding personal bests such as 2:45 (1k) and 4:17 (1500). She definitely has some of the better turnover in this field, although it will be interesting to see how she fares in a time trial-esque environment.
Sivan Auerbach (Oklahoma State)
I would argue that Sivan Auerbach is the most underrated runner in this field. She has a 4:39 mile PR which is faster than what some of the women seeded ahead of her have actually run. After a strong cross country season and plenty of experience, I see Auerbach taking advantage of a field where the mile is a secondary event for many of these women.
Sophia Gorriaran (Harvard)
She's also entered in the 800 meters, but if I had to guess, I would assume that Sophia Gorriaran actually toes the line for this event. It makes more sense to ease a rookie of her caliber into her primary event, especially when we know that this Harvard rookie can be competitive with her 4:37 mile PR.
Heidi Demeo (Oklahoma State)
There isn't one performance in particular that stands out on Heidi Demeo's resume, but she's just a flat-out solid talent across the board. She has plenty of experience at this distance. I wouldn't expect her to crack the top-five, but if you're doing a prediction game with your friends, then you may earn some points by placing her at the backend of your top-10.
Sam McDonnell (Oregon)
This former high school star had a fairly solid outdoor track season at UCLA (after initially racing at Alabama) before venturing to Oregon this past summer. You could argue that this still-young Duck distance talent has some of the highest upside in this field. And if her 4:37 mile time trial is any indication, then should could surprise some people on Saturday.
Kate Putnam (NC State)
Yet another NC State rookie with strong high school credentials, Kate Putnam is going to be a very interesting name to watch on Saturday. With personal bests of 4:19 (1500) and 4:41 (mile) she is, on paper, better suited for this event than Napolean is. Even so, her youth makes her a massive wild card in this field.
Ella Nelson (Oregon)
Predominately an 800 meter specialist, I like this move to start Ella Nelson's season with a competitive mile effort. She clearly built some valuable aerobic strength during the fall months, often appearing in the Ducks' varsity lineup. Pairing that with her middle distance speed could produce a better-than-expected mile result.
Regina Mpigachai (Northern Colorado)
Regina Mpigacha is the only woman in this field who doesn't come from a major university. However, she has actually run her seed time of 4:39 in the mile before. She has also been fairly consistent on the indoor oval. Mpigacha is unlikely to throw down a monster mile time this weekend, but I would be surprised if she ran slower than 4:43.
Men's Mile
*Collegiates and attached athletes only, three sentences or less of analysis
Elliott Cook (Oregon)
Despite a few pro athletes and a handful of unattached entrants are littered in this field, Elliott Cook still has an avenue to win this race. Cook proved last winter to be a lethal middle distance talent who gained valuable experience. And after a strong cross country season, this Oregon standout could be primed for a big early-season statement race as he drops back down to his ideal distance.
Aidan McCarthy (Cal Poly)
If Elliott Cook isn't the collegiate favorite, then Aidan McCarthy most certainly is. This guy was on fire last winter and spring, getting better with each passing race while maturing his race tactics. He is arguably just as explosive and as dangerous as Cook is/will be.
Tomas Palfrey (Oregon)
For the last few seasons, we've been waiting for Tomas Palfrey to deliver on his full potential with a breakout campaign. His TFRRS resume suggests that he's been "good," but he actually ran 3:39 unattached for 1500 meters this past June. If he can carry and translate that fitness to the indoor oval, then I would be surprised if he doesn't run under four minutes on Saturday.
Carson Smith (Cal Poly)
With personal bests of 1:52 (800) and 3:45 (1500), Carson Smith is a strong runner, although he's not necessarily in the upper-tier of names in this field. That said, this Cal Poly runner is only listed as a sophomore and could be due for a huge breakout race. And in a field that is talented, but not overwhelmingly so, I like the upside of this Mustang underclassman.
Parker Schneider (Boston U.)
Parker Schneider is just flat-out solid, boasting personal bests of 3:43 (1500) and 4:04 (mile). He's a fairly consistent runner, but I would be surprised if he runs under 4:01 in this event come Saturday.
Eric Gibson (Washington)
I am a very big fan of this former Dartmouth runner. Coach Andy Powell has a new developmental project in Eric Gibson who has a 4:02 mile PR, but also boasts even better leg speed with a 2:21 personal best of 1000 meters. I am a firm believer that Gibson will run around 3:57 or 3:58 this winter, but it's just a matter of when he actually reaches that point.
Bennett Booth-Genthe (Pomona-Pitzer)
With the departures of Alex Phillip and Ryan Wilson, you could argue that Bennett Booth-Genthe is the most valuable distance runner in Division Three this winter. With personal bests of 1:48 (800), 4:01 (mile) and 3:44 (1500), Booth-Genthe has the opportunity to make a massive statement on Saturday with a major breakthrough performance that validates him as the elite focal star of Division Three indoor track over Ethan Gregg and Christian Patzka.
Women's 3000 Meters
*Collegiates and attached athletes only, three sentences or less of analysis
Olivia Markezich (Notre Dame)
You could probably argue that Olivia Markezich is the favorite to win this race. She is fresh off of a bronze medal performance from the NCAA XC Championships, narrowly placed 2nd in this race last year with an 8:50 PR and was the silver medalist in this event at the 2023 indoor national meet. In terms of her experience, skillset, turnover and natural fit at this distance, it's hard to ignore how dangerous she'll be for everyone else in this field.
Melissa Riggins (Georgetown)
I love this move by Coach Mitchell Baker to take Melissa Riggins, a predominant middle distance standout, and put her in the 3k after a major breakout cross country season. In theory, the 3k should marry the incredible speed of Riggins from last spring and the unexpectedly-great endurance of her 2023 fall campaign.
Flomena Asekol (Florida)
Much like Melissa Riggins, I think this is a great call by Coach Will Palmer. Placing Flomena Asekol in the 3k should be a perfect middle ground that favors her traditional mile-centric skillset while also capitalizing on her tremendous cross country fitness from this past fall.
Samantha Bush (NC)
Over the last two indoor track seasons, Sam Bush has run 8:54 for 3000 meters at this very meet and has played a major role with the leaders. After a top-30 All-American performance at the NCAA XC Championships, Bush should remain competitive, although based on her entire fall campaign, it would be a bit surprising if she replicated her big-time season-opening statements that she has produced in the past.
Maia Ramsden (Harvard)
Much like Asekol and Riggins, the 3000 meters is a perfect middle ground given the diverse range of Maia Ramsden's resume. However, unlike those two women, Ramsden has already proven that the 3k may be her best event, holding an 8:54 PR from this same meet last year. And given her insane depth of racing tools (speed, endurance, tactical know-how, etc.), this Harvard star could absolutely win this race on Saturday.
Mia Barnett (Unattached, Oregon)
Yes, I know that we said that we would only highlight "attached" athletes, but I did want to quickly touch on Mia Barnett, the newest Oregon Duck. She isn't expected to officially race in uniform until next fall, but I'll be excited to see how her aerobic strength has improved in an event that is slightly higher than her ideal distance, but still allows her to utilize her mile strength and speed.
Kimberley May (Providence)
Just like I mentioned with Melissa Riggins, Kimberley May is more of a middle distance talent who had a huge breakout year on the grass. She was excellent on the indoor oval last year and has some incredible foot speed, holding a 2:42 (1k) PR. If she's near the leaders with 600ish meters to go and hasn't had to spend much energy to maintain her position, than May could be an under-the-radar threat tomorrow.
Maddy Elmore (Oregon)
Billah Jepkirui (Oklahoma State)
I'm lumping these two women together because the analysis that I have for them is largely the same that I had for Kimberley May and Flomena Asekol: They're great milers who just had tremendous seasons on the grass. However, Jepkirui is someone who seemingly favors the longer distances a bit more in comparison to Elmore and her tactical IQ may make her a major factor in this race.
Kaylee Mitchell (Oregon State)
Let's not get too fancy with our analysis: Kaylee Mitchell is just really, really good. She's not my first pick to win this race, but her talent is among the very best and she's a really safe name to place among the top-seven. And if there were betting odds, then she would likely be favored to place in the top-five.
Amaris Tyynismaa (NC State)
When she's at her best and firing on all cylinders, Amaris Tyynismaa is absolutely one of the five-best women in this field. Of course, it's largely impossible to gauge where her fitness is at right now. Yes, she just earned top-30 All-American honors at the cross country national meet, but that was her only race of the season that she finished.
Amina Maatoug (Duke)
Despite highlighting so many women in this field who boast incredible range, no one who we have listed is more dynamic than Amina Maatoug. With personal bests of 2:03 (800), 4:32 (mile), 8:55 (3k), 15:46 (5k) and a top-10 finish at the NCAA XC Championships, it shouldn't matter what kind of race this turns into. Whatever the scenario is, this Duke superstar should be able to put herself in contention to the win.
Margot Appleton (Virginia)
After a true breakout indoor track season, Margot Appleton continued to raise her game on the outdoor oval with tremendous success in the 1500 meters and the 5000 meters. The Virginia star wasn't quite as a explosive on the grass this past fall, but a move back down to the 3000 meters should favor this distance star more so than some of her competitors.
Alexandra Carlson (Rutgers)
After a tough 2023 outdoor track season, Alexandra Carlson seemingly began to (slowly) rebound in the fall. At her best, she is arguably just as dynamic and as fast as some of these other women, but it's hard to know where her fitness is truly at right now.
Men's 3000 Meters
*Collegiates and attached athletes only, three sentences or less of analysis
Drew Bosley (Northern Arizona)
Former Washington standout and current On pro, Kieran Lumb, is also entered in this field, but even then, I would think that Drew Bosley has a realistic chance to win this race. Collegiately, he's the best athlete in this field and as we all know by now, he's not afraid to attack the front of races like these if need be.
Lukas Kiprop (New Mexico)
With personal bests of 7:41 (3k) and 13:29 (5k), it should come as no surprise that Lukas Kiprop is considered to be one of the top seeds in this field. Based strictly on those times, Kiprop has a shot at the win, but suggesting that he'll translate those marks to an indoor oval after an unexciting end to his cross country season also seems to be asking a lot.
Ryan Schoppe (Oklahoma State)
During cross country, Ryan Schoppe is usually overlooked. However, as we learned last year, this Oklahoma State veteran is a lethal star when he's at his best, especially over the mile and 3000 meters distances. With a 7:41.99 (3k) PR, the Cowboy standout should be a factor in this race, but his nonexistent cross country season makes it challenging to know what kind of shape he is in.
Brian Musau (Oklahoma State)
We saw this past fall that Brian Musau is supremely talented and that he will thrive by simply outrunning his competition. He'll need to show some tactical maturity if he wants to thrive in what should be a fast field, but he's certainly talented enough to flirt with the 7:45 (3k) barrier.
Nick Foster (Michigan)
This is another predominant miler who is looking to capitalize on his cross country fitness with a fast 3k race. Nick Foster has had success in the 3k before, holding a 7:53 PR, but this field is going to be a different beast, especially for someone who wasn't necessarily a low-stick for the Wolverines this past fall.
Hillary Cheruiyot (Alabama)
I would have liked to see Hillary Cheruiyot in the 5000 meters instead of this race, but when you consider that he made a clear jump in fitness this fall and already owns a 7:48 (3k) PR, I don't necessarily dislike this decision, either. With national qualifying chances in the 3k seeming to be a bit more wide open in comparison to the 5k, I can appreciate the desire for this Alabama ace to attack the 7:45 barrier as aggressively as he can this weekend.
Aaron Las Heras (Northern Arizona)
Generally speaking, this is a step down in distance for Aaron Las Heras, someone who has traditionally thrives over 5000 meters, 10,000 meters and on the grass. He does have some decent turnover, but in terms of full potential, it's hard to set expectations for this former Demon Deacon and current Lumberjack.
Taha Er Raouy (Eastern Kentucky)
This Moroccan rookie had a handful of promising efforts on the grass this past fall, although in inexperience naturally led to some inconsistency. With a 13:40 (5k) PR, Taha Er Raouy could be competitive on Saturday, but this field could be fairly overwhelming for someone who is still developing and refining his talent.
Nico Young (Northern Arizona)
I'm a little surprised to see Nico Young seeded this far back with a seed time of 7:51 (3k). He seemed to be plenty fit this past fall and a 6th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships suggests that he'll be faster than 7:51...right? Nonetheless, I would be surprised if he's not as aggressive as Bosley is with the pacing in this race.
Conor Murphy (Virginia)
I'm not entirely sure why Conor Murphy is competing in the 3k this weekend. While I agree that he could post a fairly solid time in the event after an aerobically-improved cross country season, it's not an event that he'll seriously pursue this winter...right? I would have liked to see him race the mile before moving down to the 800 meters, although I suppose that the 3k is a natural introduction to racing shorter distances after a long fall campaign.
Brett Gardner (NC State)
I liked that Brett Gardner began to improve in the postseason this past fall. And when looking at his personal bests of 3:58 (mile) and 13:48 (5k), he is most certainly due for a new 3k PR. But can this NC State veteran take full advantage of a field that is likely going to be relentless on Saturday?
Archie Noakes (Oregon)
This Oregon freshman entered the NCAA with phenomenal times of 7:53 (3k) and 13:52 (5k) during his time in Australia. Admittedly, his lone cross country race was hardly exciting, but it's plenty possible that this rookie Duck fares better on the track than the grass.
Final Predictions
*Assumes all athletes will contest the event that they are entered in fully fresh.
Women's 800 meters (all sections, collegiates & attached athletes only)
Sophia Gorriaran (Harvard) - 2:03
Meghan Hunter (BYU) - 2:06
Kaylie Politza (Oklahoma State) - 2:08
Isis Grant (Oklahoma State) - 2:08
Krystie Solomon (BYU) - 2:11
Men's 800 meters (all sections, collegiates & attached athletes only)
Ethan Brouw (New Mexico) - 1:48
Tinoda Matsatsa (Georgetown) - 1:48
Jesse Hayward (Northern Colorado) - 1:50
Angel Luera (Dallas Baptist) - 1:51
Kerem Ayhan (Northeastern) - 1:51
Women's Mile (all sections, collegiates & attached athletes only)
Gabija Galvydyte (Oklahoma State) - 4:33
Klaudia Kazimierska (Oregon) - 4:35
Gladys Chepngetich (Clemson) - 4:36
Sophia Gorriaran (Harvard) - 4:37
Lauren Freeland (Michigan State) - 4:37
Men's Mile (all sections, collegiates & attached athletes only)
Elliott Cook (Oregon) - 3:56
Aidan McCarthy (Cal Poly) - 3:56
Eric Gibson (Washington) - 3:59
Tomas Palfrey (Oregon) - 4:00
Bennett Booth-Genthe (Pomona-Pitzer) - 4:01
Women's 3000 meters (all sections, collegiates & attached athletes only)
Amina Maatoug (Duke) - 8:52
Olivia Markezich (Notre Dame) - 8:53
Maia Ramsden (Harvard) - 8:55
Billah Jepkirui (Oklahoma State) - 8:56
Kaylee Mitchell (Oregon State) - 8:58
Men's 3000 meters (all sections, collegiates & attached athletes only)
Drew Bosley (Northern Arizona) - 7:41
Nico Young (Northern Arizona) - 7:43
Brian Musau (Oklahoma State) - 7:45
Ryan Schoppe (Oklahoma State) - 7:45
Aaron Las Heras (Northern Arizona) - 7:47
