PREDICTIONS & PREVIEWS: 2023 Boston U. Sharon Colyear-Danville Season Opener (Part One)

Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Nov 30, 2023
11 min read

Yes, ladies and gentlemen, that's right! Indoor track is already here!

For those who are maybe new to the collegiate realm, the Boston U. Season Opener is an early-season indoor track meet that is being held on December 2nd. Each and every year, this meet produces some lightning-fast times as many upper-echelon cross country talents attempt to capitalize on their peak aerobic base from the fall months.

Below, we broke down the key names in the who you can expect to toe the line this weekend for the men's and women's often-iconic 5000 meter races. We also put together some of our predictions which you can find here. And don't forget, Part Two is coming tomorrow!

Let's begin...

Click Here For Performance List*

*Final heats/sections have not yet been finalized at time of publication

Women's Preview

Can Any Collegiate Topple Parker Valby? How Much Faster Can Hilda Olemomoi Go? Will Breakout XC Stars Translate Their Success to the Indoor Oval?

Last year, the main talking point of this race was, "What can Katelyn Tuohy do in this field? And how fast will she run?" In the end, the NC State phenom ultimately concluded her season-opening race as the top collegiate and a mark of 15:15 for 5000 meters.

Tuohy isn't in this year's Boston U. Season Opener field, but the reigning cross country national champion is.

Parker Valby is someone who has raced sparing on the indoor oval as challenges with remaining healthy spoiled her 2023 winter campaign (and prior seasons). But nowadays, Valby looks as sharp and as strong as ever -- and seeing her in this field directly after the NCAA XC Championships feels like a positive sign as far as her health and sharpness is concerned.

After a dominant fall season of racing, one would expect Valby to be favored as the top collegiate in this field -- and she probably is. The Florida star is an aggressive front-runner who has almost always made an effort to keep paces fast and honest. And when you consider that she'll be battling numerous pro athletes, including top seed Annie Rodenfels who is entered with a 15:08 (5k) mark, then you it's plenty reasonable to suggest that Valby will surpass her current 5k personal best of 15:20.

However, someone like Hilda Olemomoi may try to play spoiler. The Alabama underclassman, who is listed as a sophomore in the entries, but held that same eligibility last winter, is one of the best pure aerobic-centric distance talents in the NCAA. And if you remember, this Crimson Tide star was just two seconds off of Tuohy at this meet last year en route to a huge 15:17 (5k) personal best.

Like Valby, Olemomoi doesn't seem to mind a fast pace -- the more strength-based that this race is, the better she'll fare. And given that she now has a year of NCAA experience under her belt, you may want to monitor this Alabama ace who may stick around with the top group longer than we realize.

Behind that duo is a slew of top-tier women, many of whom may be due for an explosive performance given their prior history on the track.

Someone like Amy Bunnage, the rookie star from Stanford, had a strong first season of cross country this past fall, but her resume on the track is what ultimately caught so much attention when the Cardinal announced her recruitment.

The Aussie distance ace holds personal bests of 4:14 (1500), 8:51 (3k) and 15:21 (5k), all of which were run on the outdoor oval. Based on her World Athletics profile, Bunnage doesn't seem to have much experience when it comes to racing on an indoor track, although her exposure to racing top-tier competition is hardly a rarity.

Bunnage is an already-established star with youth-based upside. If she has a good day, then she may end up running a PR and even taking down a few key names. Of course, her pre-race approach and which chase pack she chooses to settle into could make all of the difference in her final outcome.

As for Taylor Roe, she didn't have her best day at the NCAA XC Championships (finishing as a backend All-American), but her talent is very much there. There is no collegiate in this field with as much as indoor track racing experience as this Cowgirl star and you could even argue that she's the most accomplished collegiate on the track as well.

Roe looked strong at the BIG 12 XC Championships, but after a very limited racing schedule and a national meet performance that told us very little, we're still trying to establish expectations for this Oklahoma State star.

On paper, Roe's personal bests of 8:56 (3k) and 15:21 (5k) should make her a top collegiate threat, but this is also someone who historically peaks for the postseason. As long as she's healthy and firing on all cylinders, her best performances probably won't be coming until February...right? After all, she didn't even race at this meet last year despite initially being in the entries.

At the end of the day, when it comes to those four women, the questions that you need to ask yourself is this: How effectively can Parker Valby translate her cross country fitness to the indoor oval? How close can Hilda Olemomoi get to Valby? How will both Amy Bunnage and Taylor Roe approach this race?

That quartet of stars are probably viewed as the top collegiates in this field. However, recent breakout stars Rosina Machu (Gonzaga) and Chloe Scrimgeour (Georgetown) will look to put themselves in the mix as well assuming that they race in the top heat.

Both Machu and Scrimgeour were already strong 5k runners prior to this past fall, each running under 16 minutes for the distance. However, Scrimgeour is a more established talent in this event given her 15:49 (5k) and 8th place All-American 5k honor from last spring.

In terms of in-race execution, this Georgetown ace has proven time and time again that she's the real deal. While Rosina Machu, who was arguably a bigger breakout star than Scrimgeour this past fall, seemingly has more upside, it's the Hoya ace who has a higher floor.

Machu is someone who can seemingly thrive with aggressive paces and top competition. She took down Addie Engel with ease earlier this fall by simply outrunning her and she validated a phenomenal fall campaign with a 16th place finish on the national stage.

Both of these women are due for new personal bests, likely under the 15:40 (5k) barrier. However, trying to figure out how far under they'll go is the biggest challenge.

As we look down the rest of the entries, we'll find women such as Sydney Thorvaldson (Arkansas), Kenzie Doyle (UMass Lowell), Molly Born (Oklahoma State), Gracelyn Larkin (Northern Arizona), Annika Reiss (Northern Arizona), Elise Stearns (Northern Arizona), Aubrey Frentheway (BYU), Zofia Dudek (Stanford) and Phoebe Anderson (Columbia).

There are, of course, many other collegiate stars entered in this event.

Seeing how Thorvaldson performs after her monster 11th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships should answer the question, "Just exactly how good is she?" which we were asking ourselves at the end of the season.

Doyle is a strong talent who has qualified for the outdoor national meet (as recently as last spring) and has earned personal bests of 9:14 (3k), 16:00 (5k) and 33:24 (10k). However, the UMass Lowell standout didn't compete this past fall due to expired cross country eligibility and admittedly, her seed time doesn't correlate to any known performances of hers that we can find. Seeing her this high up in the entries is a bit of a surprise.

It's still unclear what the heats will officially look like, but based on the entries, the NAU trio of Annika Reiss, Gracelyn Larkin and Elise Stearns may all end up at the top of the second-fastest heat (which is just speculation). But truthfully, after the cross country seasons that they just had, you could argue that this troika should all be in the top heat.

Larkin and Stearns, in particular, have prior 5k success which should make them just as good as some/many of the collegiate women in the top section. Larkin does, after all, hold a 5k PR of 15:23 from this past summer.

Men's 5k Preview

Will Ky Robinson Replicate His 2022 Victory? Should Graham Blanks Be Favored? Can International Stars Translate Their XC Fitness to the Track?

Oh man, this should be a good one.

The top section of the men's 5000 meters may end up being just as wild, as fast and as entertaining as it was last year. And with a heavy portion of the top heat featuring more collegiates than pro athletes, there is A LOT to discuss.

Stanford's Ky Robinson won this same race last year with a perfectly executed race plan, showcasing tactical brilliance and posting a winning time of 13:11 (5k). And sure enough, Robinson is the top seed in this year's field with the same time that he ran at the 2022 iteration of this meet.

From an all-around perspective, this Aussie star may be considered the focal favorite to not only emerge as the top collegiate, but also win this entire race (again). In terms of personal bests, consistency, experience, accolades, tactics, turnover, versatility and past history, you could argue that no one in this field is better equipped to earn gold on Saturday than Robinson.

Of course, if you were to put Robinson against the field, then the field would still likely be favored given the mass amount of talent that is entered.

The NCAA's newest superstar, Graham Blanks, is also in this field. He is coming off of an undefeated season which included him winning titles at Nuttycombe and the NCAA XC Championships. And to put it simply, the Harvard star is clearly at a new level this year.

Blanks holds excellent personal bests of 3:56 (mile), 7:44 (3k), 13:18 (5k) and 28:14 (10k). He was a two-two All-American last spring (earning silver over 5000 meters) and his 5k PR was run at this same meet last year.

On paper, this Crimson ace has a resume that is fairly comparable to Robinson's. However, the Stanford runner has proven to be a bit more tactically savvy on the track in comparison to Blanks. But should that matter given what Blanks did this past fall? Should that matter given that his fitness has reached a new echelon and his attention to tactical details has seemingly improved?

I wouldn't argue with anyone who said that Blanks should be viewed as the overall favorite -- and maybe to everyone else, he is.

Someone like Alex Maier (Oklahoma State) ran 13:11 (5k) at this same meet last year after a very patient and well-executed race of his own. While he may not have ended his 2023 cross country season like he wanted to (placing 15th at the national meet), it still seems fair to say that Maier is in top form. He did, after all, push Brian Musau near the end of the BIG 12 XC Championships last month.

On paper, Maier has a fairly dynamic skillset, although he struggled a bit in 2023 as the indoor and outdoor track seasons unfolded. He was clearly not at 100%. We don't expect that to be an issue this weekend, but his most recent track campaign gave us very little to analyze in terms of what this Cowboy ace can do when he's firing on all cylinders.

However, maybe the most interesting name of anyone in this field is Habtom Samuel Keleta. The current New Mexico rookie and Eritrean superstar owns personal bests of 7:52 (3k), 13:13 (5k) and 27:20 (10k). In terms of pure raw talent, he may be the best in this field.

That being said, those times were all run during the spring and summer of 2022 and they were all run on an outdoor oval. Yes, this Lobo standout was incredible on the grass this past fall, clearly putting himself in an elite tier, but how will he handle a 200-meter indoor oval which is far more crowded?

To be clear, I do believe that Keleta can win this race and that he should be viewed as a legitimate contender to do so. However, his tactical know-how will be tested against a very challenging early-season showdown.

I will also be fascinated to see what happens with Fouad Messaoudi. This Oklahoma State megastar was undeniably the best distance talent in the NCAA during the 2023 indoor track season. His tactics were among the best that I've ever seen, his versatility between events was elite and his times were flat-out awesome.

However, Messaoudi has historically contested the 1500 meters, the mile and the 3000 meters when he steps foot on the oval. The 5000 meters, at least during his time in the NCAA, is a new challenge for him.

Of course, with personal bests of 3:35 (5k), 3:54 (mile) and 7:40 (3k), as well as a recent 10th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships, there is no denying that this Cowboy star can run substantially faster than that.

The only question is...how much faster? His turnover and tactical brilliance should help him in this field, but questioning whether or not he can run faster than 13:20 (5k) is likely a fair question as long as he's in top form (and we have no reason to believe that he's not).

Other guys like Parker Wolfe (North Carolina), Victor Kiprop (Alabama) and Patrick Kiprop (Arkansas) aren't necessarily favored to take home the win, but they should (in theory) thrive with the quick pace that we'll see on Saturday night.

Patrick Kiprop is someone in particular who we should all be monitoring. He often runs well in fast-paced races such as this and he's coming off of a monster 7th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships.

However, more importantly, his tactics have improved A TON over the last year. He may not have the foot speed to hang with a strong kick, but he feels like a fairly safe bet to finish somewhere in the top-eight among collegiates.

Denis Kipngetich, the Oklahoma State rookie who had some incredible performances this past fall (such as placing 4th at the national meet) is a major wild card.

Yes, the Cowboy freshman just had a tremendous season on the grass, but we don't have any known times from him on the track. We have no idea what his tactical know-how is like and we have no idea how he handles racing on an indoor track -- or if he has ever raced on an indoor track before!

And yet, as we all saw over the last few months, Kipngetich has tons of raw talent. If he just follows the leaders, then a final time around his seed (13:20) seems reasonable.

We'll begin to close things out with Liam Murphy, the Villanova junior who has elevated his game each and every year. Throughout 2023, he evolved into one of the more dynamic milers in the country, boasting incredible times, lethal finishing speed and praiseworthy range.

On the track, Murphy had traditionally settled for events similar to that of Fouad Messaoudi -- the 1500 meters, the mile and the 3000 meters. He does own a 13:43 (5k) PR, but that time should be crushed this weekend.

The Wildcat star had his best cross country season yet in 2023, placing 7th at the Virginia Invite, 21st at Nuttycombe, earning both his conference and regional titles and placing 14th at the NCAA XC Championships.

I feel comfortable saying that Murphy can run under 13:30 (5k) this weekend, but how close he gets to 13:20 is the real question. This Villanova talent is going up against guys who are predominately long distance focused. And while Murphy has proven that he can be competitive with those men, it'll be interesting to see how he fares in an all-out, hard-from-the-gun test of his aerobic fitness in an event that is longer than what he usually enters.

Other notable collegiate entries include Perry Mackinnon (Syracuse), Victor Shitsama (Oklahoma State), Alex Phillip (North Carolina), Kirami Yego (Arkansas), Cole Sprout (Stanford), Dylan Schubert (Furman) and Jackson Sharp (Wisconsin).

Both Mackinnon and Phillip were already accomplished distance standouts before they came to the ACC, but they clearly took a step up this fall. After continuously matching or exceeding our expectations, they could do so yet again on Saturday.

I'm a bit surprised to see Jackson Sharp entered this low on performance list. Yes, he struggled somewhat at the NCAA XC Championships, but this is someone who has been the bronze medalist over 5000 meters at the 2023 NCAA Indoor Championships and the NCAA Outdoor Championships.

With a 5k PR of 13:26, I suppose the argument as to why he isn't listed higher (and therefore unlikely to be in the fastest heat) is because others simply have better seed times. Even so, I would have liked to seen Sharp in the top section.

Final Predictions (Part Two Coming Tomorrow)

*Final heats/sections have not yet been finalized at time of publication

Women's 5000 meters (all sections, collegiates only)

Parker Valby (Florida) - 15:14
Hilda Olemomoi (Alabama) - 15:16
Rosina Machu (Gonzaga) - 15:23
Amy Bunnage (Stanford) - 15:24
Chloe Scrimgeour (Georgetown) - 15:26
Elise Stearns (Northern Arizona) - 15:29
Gracelyn Larkin (Northern Arizona) 15:31
Taylor Roe (Oklahoma State) - 15:31
Molly Born (Oklahoma State) - 15:34
Annika Reiss (Northern Arizona) - 15:36

Men's 5000 meters (all sections, collegiates only)

Ky Robinson (Stanford) - 13:12
Graham Blanks (Harvard) - 13:14
Habtom Samuel Keleta (New Mexico) - 13:15
Alex Maier (Oklahoma State) - 13:15
Fouad Messaoudi (Oklahoma State) - 13:17
Patrick Kiprop (Arkansas) - 13:17
Parker Wolfe (North Carolina) - 13:19
Denis Kipnegetich (Oklahoma State) - 13:21
Liam Murphy (Villanova) - 13:22
Kirami Yego (Arkansas) - 13:25