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PREDICTIONS: 2024 Nike Cross Nationals (NXN)
Predictions & analysis by Donny Speas, edits & commentary via Garrett Zatlin
It's finally time!
One of the more challenging parts when it comes to writing about the high school scene (at least in my opinion) is that we only see the best teams in the country go head-to-head against one another until the national meet rolls around.
Well, it's finally time for NXN! And thankfully, there certainly won't be a dull moment come Saturday morning at the Glendoveer Golf Course.
Girl's Individual Race (5k)
1. Jane Hedengren (Southwest)
2. Addy Ritzenhein (Southwest)
3. Elizabeth Leachman (South)
4. Sadie Engelhardt (California)
5. Rylee Blade (California)
6. Marissa Ferebee (Heartland)
7. Chloe Huyler (Northwest)
8. Zariel Macchia (New York)
9. Macy Wingard (South)
10. Victoria Garces (Midwest)
11. Chiara Dailey (California)
12. Mia Sirois (Midwest)
13. Lilly Beshears (South)
14. Sophia Rodriguez (Northwest)
15. Paige Shepard (Union Catholic)
16. Holly Barker (Trabuco Hills)
17. Helen Sachs (Midwest)
18. Delaney Reuter (Southwest)
19. Abigail Errington (California)
20. Emily Wisniewski (Northwest)
Analysis: After battling against each other a little less than two weeks ago at the NXR Southwest meet, both Jane Hedengren and Addy Ritzenhein will go head-to-head once more this Saturday. During that aforementioned NXR race, Jane Hedengren set a new unofficial high school national record for the cross country 5k distance, running 15:50 for 5000 meters.
But perhaps more importantly is that at NXR, Hedengren was able to put roughly 40 seconds on defending NXN champion, Addy Ritzenhein.
Outside of NXR, Ritzenhein is undefeated this year and she certainly has a shot to pull off the upset victory. She is, after all, the defending NXN champion and there isn't any reason to believe that she has taken a step backwards in her fitness this year.
One other national champion contender is the UIL 5A state champion (and last year's Foot Locker champion), Elizabeth Leachman. The Texas native has raced sparingly this fall, but has still been a force to be reckoned with during the five races she's contested this fall.
Finally, we get to see a pair of individual title contenders out of California. I am, of course, talking about Sadie Engelhardt and Rylee Blade.
Earlier in the year, Blade won one of the nation's most competitive invitationals at the Woodbridge XC Classic, running a blazing 15:20 for three-miles. Then, a few weeks later at the Clovis Invitational, Engelhardt got the win, soundly defeating Blade by seven seconds.
In our eyes, there are five women who are at least talented enough to win gold on Saturday. Of course, the path to the NXN title will undoubtedly go through Hedengren who may be the consensus favorite to win it all on Saturday.
Boy's Individual Race (5k)
1. Keegan Smith (Southeast)
2. Joe Barrett (Christian Brothers Academy)
3. Juan Gonzalez (Heartland)
4. Kaden Evans (American Fork)
5. Kyle Steadman (Southwest)
6.Ty Steorts (Southeast)
7. Manny Putz (Heartland)
8. Ben Crane (Midwest)
9. Owen Powell (Northwest)
10. Tayvon Kitchen (Northwest)
11. Caden Leonard (Southlake Carroll)
12. Jack Graffeo (Northeast)
13. Eyan Turk (California)
14. Robert Mechura (Heartland)
15. Eli Fitchen-Young (California)
16. Landon Kimmel (Midwest)
17. Charlie Vause (Southwest)
18. Landon Petre (California)
19. Tamrat Gavenas (Northeast)
20. TJ Hansen (Midwest)
Analysis: This race has the most volatility at the top of the field -- and I say that with zero hesitancy.
At the same time, Keegan Smith is almost definitely the favorite after his wins at the NXR Southeast meet and the Foot Locker South Regional XC Championships (his recent 14:23 mark for 5k doesn't hurt his stock, either).
However, Smith is far from the only runner with a legitimate shot at the win. Let's break down some of the other individual national title contenders, shall we?
Christian Brothers Academy senior Joe Barrett is undefeated this cross country season and has seemingly been close to the course record for every race that he attempts. That statement applies to meet such as the NXR Northeast meet and the Manhattan College XC Invitational.
In other words, the faster the race, the more likely Barrett is going to benefit...well, at least in theory.
Two contenders from the state of Utah to watch out for are Kyle Steadman and Kaden Evans. Evans was the Utah 6A cross country state champion and most recently won the NXR Southwest meet in a blazing time of 14:24 (5k). Meanwhile, Steadman is the Utah 5A cross country state champion and was pretty close to Evans at NXR, running 14:27 (5k).
Owen Powell and Ty Steorts are two more contenders with similar characteristics. Both have run some pretty fast times this year as they can lay claim to marks of 13:30 for three-miles and 14:36 for 5k, respectively. Both men also have a major win on their resumes with Powell winning the Woodbridge XC Classic and Steorts winning the Adidas XC Challenge.
From a raw talent standpoint, Powell and Steorts are plenty capable of winning NXN gold come Saturday.
Finally, we get to the Heartland duo of Juan Gonzalez and Manny Putz. The latter is the top returner from last year's national meet and recently won the WIAA XC State Championships. Gonzalez, meanwhile, is undefeated this season and has two defining wins at NXR Heartland meet and the Foot Locker Midwest Regional XC Championships.
Girl's Team Race
1. Mountain Vista Golden Eagles (CO)
2. Flower Mound Jaguars (TX)
3. Trabuco Hills Mustangs (CA)
4. Bethlehem Central Eagles (NY)
5. Air Academy Kadets (CO)
6. Lone Peak Knights (UT)
7. Buchanan Bears (CA)
8. Fossil Ridge SaberCats (CO)
9. Union Catholic Vikings (NJ)
10. JSerra Catholic Lions (CA)
Analysis: Between the four races that I am offering predictions on, this race is the one that I am the most confident about.
The Mountain Vista girls are the only true favorite coming into this meet. That's especially true after they picked up wins at the Liberty Bell Invite, the Colorado 5A XC State Championships and the NXR Southwest meet.
All of the aforementioned meets featured at least one (if not more) teams ranked in our "High School Top-25 XC Team Rankings." The Golden Eagles also featured one of the more complete lineups in the country, especially with a top-three that feels very stable, even in larger fields like NXN.
One team that is red hot is the Trabuco Hills Mustangs out of California. They are fresh off of a win at the CIF XC State Championships, both in the merge and with head-to-head wins against Buchanan (TSR #7) and the Santiago Corona Sharks (TSR #15). If things break their way on Saturday morning, they could very well end up as the national champions.
The final team who I'll be highlighting is the Bethlem Central Eagles.
While Bethlehem Central hasn't had any direct showdowns with teams ranked in our top-25, they have dominated every meet that they have entered, most recently scoring a mere 43 points to win the NXR New York meet.
Boy's Team Race
1. Christian Brothers Academy Colts (NJ)
2. Herriman Mustangs (UT)
3. Niwot Cougars (CO)
4. Southlake Carroll Dragons (TX)
5. American Fork Cavemen (UT)
6. Belen Jesuit Wolverines (FL)
7. Downers Grove North Trojans (IL)
8. Austin Vandegrift Vipers (TX)
9. Bridgeland Bears (TX)
10. Couer D’Alene Vikings (ID)
Analysis: The way I see it, there are three title contenders this year who have seemingly separated themselves from the rest of the programs in this field.
Those three teams are the Christian Brothers Academy Colts (NJ), the Niwot Cougars (CO) and the Herriman Mustangs (UT). All three of these teams have been ranked at our TSR #1 spot at some point this fall and each squad has a legitimate chance at winning on Saturday.
Niwot's case is fairly simple: They were 5th at this meet last year and lost nobody from their varsity seven. The Colorado-based powerhouse went undefeated up until the postseason, winning meets such as the Colorado 5A XC State Championships and the Desert Twilight Invitational. Then at the NXR Southwest meet, they took home a runner-up finish to the Herriman Mustangs.
The Mustangs are undefeated on the season and they have loads of championship experience (something that I put quite a bit of emphasis on) after returning three scorers from last year's national championship team.
When you take a step back and look at everything (including wins at NXR and the UHSAA 6A XC State Championships), Herriman is undoubtedly the safest pick to win NXN this weekend.
However, despite strong cases by both Herriman and Niwot, my personal pick to win NXN is Christian Brothers Academy. The Colts have continued to rewrite the record books both in the state of New Jersey and the entire Northeast region. And while we haven't seen Christian Brothers Academy compete outside of their region this fall, their talent is simply undeniable.
