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PREDICTIONS: 2025 Raleigh Relays
NOTE: Predictions are only for attached collegians listed in the entries. TSR is aware that an athlete could/will scratch out of certain events to pursue a more manageable weekend of racing. Even so, The Stride Report will offer predictions for each event as if every athlete in the distance fields will be completely fresh.
*An asterisk denotes that a collegian is also entered in another individual event.
Women’s 800 Meters
Sylvia Chelangat (South Carolina)* - 2:03
Maeve O'Neill (Providence) - 2:04
Emma Douglass (Wake Forest)* - 2:04
Rachel Forsyth (Michigan State)* - 2:05
Iris Downes (Duke)* - 2:06 (H2)
Analysis: When it comes to the collegians, the women's 800 meters isn't exactly loaded. It does, however, feature a handful of up-and-coming middle distance talents, many of whom had promising winter campaigns.
In a race that will likely be fairly quick thanks to a handful of pro athletes, you have to imagine that Sylvia Chelangat's raw fitness will shine on this stage. On the flip side, the recent momentum and the veteran experience of Maeve O'Neill could allow her to hang with a seasoned field longer than expected.
Admittedly, this is the distance race that I am the least confident about on the women's side. With a handful of under-the-radar women in the field each boasting great upside, it wouldn't surprise us if someone (maybe Emma Douglass?) had a significant breakout race.
Men’s 800 Meters
Luis Peralta (Milligan)* - 1:48
Reed Cherry (Northeastern) - 1:49
Nicolas Pizzaro (Penn)* - 1:49
Camerin Williams (High Point) - 1:49
J'Voughnn Blake (Dartmouth) - 1:50
Analysis: Truthfully, this is an 800-meter field that lacks firepower amongst the collegiate entrants. While both Luis Peralta and Reed Cherry have run under 1:48 (800) earlier in their careers, we haven't seen them get all that close to doing so in recent seasons.
Peralta is coming off of a national title win at the NAIA Indoor Championships over a fellow standout half-miler in Michael Long. In terms of momentum and pedigree, the Milligan star is probably the best pick out of everyone else.
I also really like High Point's Camerin Williams. Sure, we may have "only" predicted him to finish in 4th place, but he had a fantastic end to his winter campaign and is on a true hot streak right now.
Women’s 1500 Meters
Margot Appleton (Virginia) - 4:08
Kimberley May (Providence) - 4:08
Shannon Flockhart (Providence) - 4:09
Rachel Forsyth (Michigan State)* - 4:11
Salma Elbadra (South Carolina) - 4:12
Analysis: As far as collegiate entries are concerned, the women's 1500 meters may end up being the best race of the entire weekend. That's because we will get to see a trio of mile-based stars go head-to-head-to-head.
Despite a brutal showing in the finals at the NCAA Indoor Championships, Margot Appleton is likely the favorite to emerge with top collegiate honors over 1500 meters. She ran 4:25 in the mile last month and has often fared well at this meet. Sure, both Kimberley May and Shannon Flockhart are top-tier milers as well, but their winter campaigns weren't quite as impressive, at least relative to our expectations for them.
Of course, Flockhart and May went 1-2 in this race last year, each dipping under the 4:10 (1500) barrier. And with the spring months representing a hard reset of sorts, the Friar duo could give Appleton plenty of trouble on Friday afternoon.
I really like Rachel Forsyth going into this weekend. The Michigan State talent had a much better indoor track season than some may realize, but she's entered in a handful of other distance events, so it's hard to know what she'll even run over the next few days. I am also plenty high on Salma Elbadra who is aerobically stronger than we initially gave her credit for. If this 1500-meter race ends up being honest, then she is the one who could benefit the most.
Men’s 1500 Meters
Gary Martin (Virginia) - 3:36
Marco Langon (Villanova) - 3:37
Liam Murphy (Villanova) - 3:38
Cooper Cawthra (Texas A&M) - 3:39
Damian Hackett (Cornell) - 3:41
Analysis: I feel confident in saying that this will be the best men's distance race of the entire weekend. After seeing Gary Martin (Virginia), Marco Langon (Villanova) and Liam Murphy (Villanova) do battle in the mile back in January, the trio will face-off in a rematch this weekend over 1500 meters.
Despite Langon getting the mile win in their last matchup, it's hard to envision Gary Martin not winning gold this time around. The UVA star has only gotten better since January, running a jaw-dropping mile time of 3:48. Not only that, but the outdoor oval will afford Martin more room to navigate through that field unlike Penn's indoor track did.
None of this is to say that Langon or Murphy can't win this race. However, pulling off a win twice over Gary Martin in his primary event is a lot to ask of anyone.
I made it fairly clear on the Blue Oval Podcast how much I like Cooper Cawthra. The Texas A&M star had a monster breakout winter campaign, running 3:54 in the mile and splitting 3:51 on the anchor leg of the Aggies' 4th place All-American DMR lineup. He has tons of momentum underneath his legs right now and this race will almost certainly be fast.
I feel pretty good about Cawthra's chances of dipping under 3:40 (1500), it's just a matter of how far under he'll actually go.
Women’s 5k
Sam Bush (NC State) - 15:20
Alex Millard (Providence) - 15:20
Hannah Gapes (NC State) - 15:28
Jessie Secor (Colorado) - 15:29
Rachel Forsyth (Michigan State)* - 15:33
Analysis: I'll be honest, I have no idea who is going to come out on top in this race.
NC State's Sam Bush is easily the most experienced, most dynamic, most accomplished and, when healthy, most consistent collegian in this 5k field. And after having the best indoor track season of her career (where she ran unattached), it's hard not to be high on her going into this race.
However, Providence's Alex Millard is the collegian who has the most recent momentum over this distance, having run 15:22 (5k) this past winter and placing 12th in that event at the indoor national meet. In three of her last four meets, Millard has run 4:35 (mile), 8:50 (3k) and 15:22 (5k), making her more than capable of snagging this win.
I really like the trajectory that both Hannah Gapes and Jessie Secor are on right now. I don't think they're quite ready to secure gold in a field like this and it feels like they're better equipped for the mile and the 3000-meter distances (especially Gapes). Even so, in a time trial environment like the Raleigh Relays, I could still see them producing fast, national-caliber marks.
Men’s 5k
Rocky Hansen (Wake Forest) - 13:22
Jesse Hamlin (Butler) - 13:25
William Amponsah (West Texas A&M) - 13:31
Bailey Habler (Villanova) - 13:33
Brett Gardner (NC State)* - 13:34
Analysis: There isn't anyone in this field who should be able to realistically challenge Rocky Hansen. The Wake Forest star ran 13:14 (5k) during the winter months and then validated that result with a 13:12 effort en route to bronze at the NCAA Indoor Championships.
Hansen will likely do enough to get the win and to run a regional qualifying time. Don't expect this race to be a barn-burner unless someone tries to be ultra aggressive early-on.
Butler's Jesse Hamlin is the defending 5k champion from last year's version of the Raleigh Relays, but we haven't seen him race since last spring. Division Two star William Amponsah should be able to put together a fairly strong result of his own. He has enough raw fitness to hang on for a fast time in a 5k affair that will likely be a test of one's pure aerobic talent.
I am extremely high on Bailey Habler. The Villanova redshirt rookie was great during the fall months and then ran 7:49 over 3000 meters this past winter. I am convinced that he will be at his best over 5000 meters. His youth-based upside makes him one of the scariest names in this field and he has been performing well ahead of schedule as far as his fitness is concerned.
Women’s 10k
Grace Hartman (NC State) - 32:03
Florence Caron (Penn State) - 32:26
Joy Naukot (West Virginia)* - 32:40
Emily Covert (Notre Dame) - 32:44
Sadie Sigfstead (Villanova)* - 32:47
Analysis: The first few 10k and steeplechase races of the outdoor track season are always challenging to gauge and analyze. However, what I do feel confident about is Grace Hartman's chances of winning gold on her home track.
Hartman won the 10k title at the Raleigh Relays last spring despite having never contested the event before. Nowadays, she is far more aerobically developed and should further thrive in this event with more experience. She has the potential to run under 32 minutes this spring, but it's unclear if she'll have enough competition from everyone else in this field to push her past that barrier come Friday.
Penn State ace Florence Caron is a true strength-based runner who thrives in fast-paced environments. She had a very solid winter campaign, especially over 5000 meters, and should have no trouble moving up to what could be argued as her ideal distance. I see her being the last one who Hartman has to shake to get the win.
As for everyone else, women like Emily Covert and Sadie Sigfstead are accomplished veterans who are, in theory, at their best in the 10k. However, limited recent results have made it challenging to figure out how good they'll be.
Despite her youth and inexperience, I'll be fascinated to see what Joy Naukot does. Per World Athletics, the West Virginia star has run 1:09:25 for the half-marathon and 32:28 for 10,000 meters on the roads. And after running 15:36 (5k) on the indoor oval, one has to imagine that the Mountaineer rookie will be even better when she moves up in distance to her primary event.
Men’s 10k
Will Anthony (Virginia) - 28:16
Ethan Coleman (Notre Dame) - 28:23
Nicholas Kipchirchir (Virginia Tech) - 28:34
Aidan O'Gorman (North Florida) - 28:37
Murphy Smith (Navy) - 28:38
Analysis: I have to be honest, I'm not a super big fan of this field.
Virginia's Will Anthony is the defending 10k champion from last year's Raleigh Relays, a race that he won in 28:21. And while he is undoubtedly better at the longer distances, it's not like his winter campaign impressed us in any major way.
There are a large handful of up-and-coming talents who could produced sneaky-good marks come Thursday. And yet, it's hard to envision anyone in this field, with the possible exception of Anthony, realistically challenging for a 10k All-American honor come June.
Women’s 3k Steeplechase
Sarah Tait (West Virginia)* - 9:52
Katelyn Stewart-Barnett (Michigan State) - 9:52
Angelina Napoleon (NC State)* - 9:58
Zoie Dundon (Minnesota)* - 10:02
Kennady Fontenot (Texas A&M) - 10:05
Analysis: There are three or four women in this field who I could realistically see earning top collegiate honors come Friday.
Sarah Tait is arguably the most talented of this bunch. She was, after all, a cross country All-American who ran head-turning times of 4:33 (mile) and 8:59 (3k) this past winter. On paper, this Mountaineer ace has been better than any other NCAA athlete in this field. That, in turn, could make her the collegiate favorite even if other women are more proven in the steeplechase than she is.
Meanwhile, Katelyn Stewart-Barnett is coming off of the best indoor track season of her career (where she ran a 4:34 mile PR) and owns a 9:48 PR over the barriers and water pits. Don't forget, Stewart-Barnett won the steeplechase title at the Raleigh Relays last year while racing unattached! If you're someone who values steeple experience, then the Michigan State veteran may be a good choice.
As for Angelina Napoleon, she has the most range of any woman in this field. She also has the most upside and boasts the best pedigree. Her personal bests of 4:41 (mile) and 9:00 (3k) may not seem like a big deal, but for someone who already ran 9:54 in the steeplechase, it seems like the NC State product is ready to take another step upwards in her progression.
Men’s 3k Steeplechase
Victor Kibiego (Texas A&M) - 8:37
Patrick Thygesen (Providence)* - 8:40
Caleb Jarema (Michigan) - 8:41
Kristian Imroth (Eastern Kentucky) - 8:45
Soheil Boufrizi (Wingate) - 8:46
Analysis: On paper, Victor Kibiego is the best steeplechaser in this field. However, his 2024 spring campaign was plagued by inconsistencies and a national meet DNF. He may be the most talented collegian over the barriers and water pits come Thursday, but the veterans behind him are not to be taken lightly.
Patrick Thygesen won the steeplechase title at the Raleigh Relays last year in a time of 8:37 while Kristian Imroth won the steeplechase title at the Penn Relays last year in a time of 8:35. In that same Penn Relays' steeplechase race, Caleb Jarema ran 8:37 and then made big improvements on the grass. And how about Wingate's Soheil Boufrizi? He has a legitimate shot at winning the D2 steeplechase title this spring.
Kibiego's 8:25 PR from last spring and bronze medal from the 2023 outdoor national meet make him the favorite going into Thursday. Even so, he can't afford too many slip ups and will need to make the most of his often-great last lap heroics if he wants to win gold.
