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PREDICTIONS: 2024 Ivy League XC Championships
- Finn Birnie
- Nov 1, 2024
- 5 min read
Predictions & analysis by Finn Birnie, edits & commentary via Garrett Zatlin
The Ivy League XC Championship is by no means the biggest conference meet in the nation. It isn't necessarily the most important meet of this weekend and it's implications on the national qualifying picture are fairly limited.
And yet, none of that really matters.
The Ivy League is comprised of the oldest and the most prestigious academic universities in the country. The extensive history and the culture of this conference makes tomorrow's meet a battle of pride and honor.
As such, we felt compelled to give our predictions below...
Women's Individual Race
Phoebe Anderson (Columbia)
Augustine Haquet (Cornell)
Ella Gilson (Harvard)
Claire Archer (Yale)
Anna McNatt (Princeton)
Penelope Salmon (Harvard)
Mena Scatchard (Princeton)
Alexis Allen (Princeton)
Zoe Cooper (Harvard)
Annelies Quinton (Harvard)
Ellaney Matarese (Harvard)
Morgan Boonshaft (Brown)
Madeleine Locher (Dartmouth)
Elia Ton-That (Columbia)
Molly Malague (Harvard)
Emma de Jong (Princeton)
Olivia Fraga (Brown)
Emily Mrakovcic (Brown)
Linde Fonville (Yale)
Charlotte Whitehurst (Yale)
Analysis: Much like the men’s race, there is one overwhelming favorite in the women’s competition: Columbia’s Phoebe Anderson.
Anderson is the top returner from last year's meet, and if anything, she has reached an even higher level of fitness this season. Her impressive 4th place finish at the Nuttycombe Invite and a 6th place effort at the Princeton Fall Classic are huge standout results.
And frankly, it would take a monumental effort to topple her.
Cornell’s Augustine Haquet feels like the person most equipped to take on Anderson. The Big Red veteran has been quietly putting together a strong season, highlighted by an 8th place finish at the Paul Short Run and a 15th place finish at the Princeton Fall Classic.
We can also expect Harvard’s duo of Ella Gibson and Penelope Salmon to be in the mix. While the former hasn’t quite looked as strong as she did last fall, her ability to peak when it matters the most cannot be understated. Meanwhile, Salmon was the Crimson’s leading lady at Pre-Nationals, so she enters this race with heaps of momentum.
Other names such as Yale’s Claire Archer, Princeton’s Anna McNatt and Mena Scatchard should also find themselves in the mix for a top-five finish.
Men's Individual Race
Graham Blanks (Harvard)
Dylan Throop (Penn)
Myles Hogan (Princeton)
Nicholas Bendtsen (Princeton)
Shane Brosnan (Harvard)
Luke Johnson (Penn)
Derek Amicon (Cornell)
Damian Hackett (Cornell)
Ben Rosa (Harvard)
Weston Brown (Princeton)
Jackson Shorten (Princeton)
Ferenc Kovacs (Harvard)
Connor McCormick (Princeton)
Leo Brewer (Yale)
Pierre Attiogbe (Cornell)
Joe Ewing (Harvard)
Owen Karas (Yale)
Sahil Dodda (Penn)
Charlie Ortmans (Harvard)
Talha Syed (Columbia)
Analysis: Surprise surprise, Graham Blanks is the overwhelming favorite to defend his Ivy League title.
The reigning national champion kicked-off his season with an impressive (but unsurprisingly) 2nd place finish at Pre-Nationals. There, he trailed only Habtom Samuel who many consider his biggest threat in this year's title defense.
However, one runner who may be determined not to give him an inch is Penn’s Dylan Throop. The Quaker standout has been in fine form this season, highlighted by a 5th place finish at the Princeton Fall Classic. As the top returning runner behind Blanks, Throop hopes to turn last year’s silver medal into gold, even with the odds majorly stacked against him.
While that duo is likely to set themselves apart from the field, the race behind them will be pivotal in the team competition.
Shane Brosnan is coming off of an impressive 47th-place finish at Pre-Nationals. And although Princeton’s Nicholas Bendtsen may not be in peak form this fall, his experience at this level can’t be discounted. He’ll also have the luxury of running alongside fellow Tiger, Myles Hogan, who has looked like a low-stick this season.
Penn's Luke Johnson, as well as Cornell's duo of Derek Amicon and Damian Hackett, have all been having excellent fall campaigns, consistently posting strong finishes. Their presence will add an extra layer of intensity to the race as they each have the potential to disrupt the top-five.
Women's Team Race
Harvard Crimson
Princeton Tigers
Yale Bulldogs
Brown Bears
Cornell Big Red
Analysis: After a statement victory at the Paul Short Run, Harvard enters the postseason as the favorites to defend their Ivy League title.
The Crimson’s victory at Paul Short was significant as they not only defeated some regional rivals, but they also bested Yale, Cornell, Dartmouth, Brown and Penn in the process.
Led by Ella Gilson, the Harvard quintet has been working in unison all season long and their ability to pack together could be a key factor in giving the Crimson women an edge over the field.
Harvard's closest challengers will likely be Princeton. Last year’s runners-up team has shown impressive form and appears poised to contest Harvard once again. Remember, the Tigers comfortably defeated several conference rivals earlier this fall, finishing 8th at their home meet, the Princeton Fall Classic.
The race for 3rd place, however, promises to be thrilling.
Yale, Cornell, Dartmouth, Brown and Penn have all competed against each other this season (with Cornell, Dartmouth, Brown and Penn meeting on multiple occasions) and each matchup has yielded a different outcome.
Yale came out on top at the Paul Short Run while Brown bested Cornell, Dartmouth, and Penn at the Princeton Fall Classic.
While the Bulldogs are aiming to capture bronze after winning the ECAC XC Championships, Brown’s recent momentum can’t be overlooked. Could they be the team to cause a stir on the podium?
Men's Team Race
Princeton Tigers
Harvard Crimson
Cornell Big Red
Yale Bulldogs
Penn Quakers
Analysis: This time last year, Princeton edged out Harvard by a mere three points. And in 2024, it feels like we’re in for another nail-bitingly close battle.
The Crimson bring star power via Graham Blanks who, barring any setbacks, is poised to repeat as the individual champion. Princeton’s strength, on the other hand, lies in their depth. While they may lack an elite low-stick, their lineup has minimal weaknesses. Their ability to run as a cohesive pack could give them a slight edge over Harvard depending on the smallest difference in finishes.
Given the size of this field, maintaining a cohesive pack may be even more beneficial than having a sole low-stick -- something that we saw come to fruition last fall.
Behind Princeton and Harvard, the battle for 3rd place will likely come down to Cornell and Yale. The Big Red men bested the Bulldogs by a considerable margin at the Paul Short Run and they'll be counting on Derek Amicon once again to lead them to another strong finish.
However, Penn shouldn’t be overlooked. The Quakers have two standout scorers in Dylan Throop and Luke Johnson, athletes who could potentially finish ahead of both Yale’s and Cornell’s top scorers. The question, however, is whether Penn’s backend runners can pull through to keep them in contention for bronze.
