PREDICTIONS: 2024 HOKA Festival of Miles

Donald Speas
May 29, 2024
7 min read

Predictions & analysis by Donny Speas, additional edits & commentary via Garrett Zatlin

The HOKA Festival of Miles is always one of the most competitive mile races on the calendar yearly (in fact, it's arguably THE best mile race every year).

Last year, we saw some incredibly deep fields in both the boy's and girl's races, with seven girls running under 4:45 for the mile (eight if you count Tatum David's 4:37 in the professional section) and four boys breaking the four-minute mile barrier, the most high school athletes we've ever seen do so in a single race.

In addition to some fabulous mile races, the HOKA Festival of Mile also boasts competitive 800-meter fields. During the 2023 rendition of this meet, the boy's meet record was taken down by current Villanova freshman Daniel Watcke in a blazing fast time of 1:48.59! On the girl's side, we saw Iowa State commit Becca Heitzig win a very competitive time of 2:09.51.

And yet, despite the incredible amount of talent that we saw in 2023, this year's prep fields somehow look even stronger by comparison. As such, we are certain that Thursday evening will be full of great races and jaw-dropping times.

Below are our picks for each of the distance events...

CLICK HERE FOR ENTRIES

Girl’s 800 Meters

1. Tessa Buswell (Poway) -- 2:07

2. Faith Murphy (Anderson) -- 2:08

3. Becca Heitzig (Lincoln Community) -- 2:08

4. Abby Downin (Tatnall) -- 2:09

5. Keelee Leitzen (Hempstead) -- 2:09

While this girls’ 800-meter field may not be quite as strong as the girl’s mile field, this is still a very talented group of athletes from across the country.

My pick for the win is Poway’s Tessa Buswell who is fresh off a win at the CIF Track & Field Championships where she ran a new 800-meter personal best of 2:06.51. The field at CIF was arguably just as top-heavy as what we’ll see this Thursday and that’s frankly all the convincing that I need to slide Buswell into the top spot in my predictions.

Fans who watched last year’s version of the HOKA Festival of Miles will remember Becca Heitzig, the defending champion in this event. Last year, Heitzig ran an 800-meter time of 2:09 to take the win, but I don’t think that will be fast enough to take the victory this time around.

Luckily for us, Heitzig looks to be rounding into great form, taking the win at the IHSA 2A state meet in both the 800 meters and the 1600 meters. That's a great display of strength which should effectively translate to a presumably quick race on Thursday night.

The last athlete who I’m going to be talking about is Faith Murphy, the UIL 6A runner-up over 800 meters.

Murphy comes into Festival of Miles with a huge amount of momentum. Her UIL race rewarded her with a 2:07 (800) clocking which represented a full two-second improvement on her personal best! Perhaps more importantly, Murphy possesses some elite foot-speed, boasting a 400-meter personal best of 56.66 seconds, making her one of the last athletes who I would want to be in a dead heat during the final stretch of this race.

Boy’s 800 Meters

Noah Neilson (American Fork) -- 1:49
Adin Lathrop (Bridgeland) -- 1:49
Ethan Walther (Salesianum) -- 1:49
Cain Evans (Carlsbad) -- 1:49
Alejandro de Bastos (Pembroke Pines) -- 1:50

The boy’s 800 meters features athletes from coast to coast and everywhere in between. Unfortunately for me, this means that there are very few previous head-to-head matchups to analyze.

Long-time readers of The Stride Report know that I’m a big fan of (and admittedly a bit biased towards) altitude-based athletes, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that I’m picking American Fork’s Noah Neilson to take the victory here.

Nielson is fresh off an 800-meter victory over a loaded field (including fellow entrant McKay Wells) at the UHSAA 6A State Championships and is one of three athletes in this field with a sub-1:50 personal best over the half-mile distance.

One of the other athletes with a sub-1:50 personal best is Alabama commit, Adin Lathrop (Bridgeland). Lathrop has a lot of momentum in this event, just recently breaking the 1:50 barrier at last weekend’s RunningLane Track Championships and finishing 3rd in a top-heavy field. I’m hoping his race at RunningLane will give him some more invaluable experience in fast races where the emphasis is on the clock, an almost identical environment to the HOKA Festival of Miles.

One athlete with both experience and momentum is Carlsbad’s Cain Evans. Evans recently won the 800-meter title at the CIF Track & Field Championships. This effort was a personal best by roughly one and a half seconds and it gave him a signature win over a handful of top California talents.

Oh, and it’s worth mentioning that in the 11 race over 800 meters that Evans has competed in during this outdoor track season (excluding prelims), he hasn’t lost a single one. It shouldn't come as a total shock if Evans finds a way to pull off the upset come Thursday.

Professional Women's Mile

Sadie Engelhardt (Ventura, Unattached) - 4:30

The women's professional mile battle will feature a handful of talented American milers and a handful of them will likely put themselves ahead of high school superstar Sadie Engelhardt who is also in this race. However, that isn't to suggest that the future NC State talent won't be competitive tomorrow night.

Engelhardt has already run 4:09 over 1500 meters this season, a time that she produced back in March at "The TEN" track meet in California. However, more importantly, she defeated a handful of more-than-respectable pro runners. That was all before she clocked a phenomenal 4:29 mark over 1600 meters (en route to a 4:31 mile PR) at the Mt. SAC Relays.

Simply put, Engelhardt can be a problem for many of the best pros in this field, especially since she has yet to truly be pushed this season. And if you believe that to be the case, then this all-time prep ace could very realistically scare the 4:30 mile barrier tomorrow evening.

High School Girl's Championship Mile

Ali Ince (Normal Community) -- 4:38
Charlotte Bell (Cuthbertson) -- 4:39
Logan St. John Kletter (Mt. Lebanon) -- 4:39
Olivia Cieslak (Haverford Township) -- 4:41
Chloe Huyler (Lakeridge) -- 4:42

This field is stacked head-to-toe with top-tier talent. And with so many amazing athletes to choose from, I truthfully don't think I can analyze them all in a single article...so here's my best go at it.

Allison (Ali) Ince is most known for her abilities over 800 meters rather than the mile, but she's got a ton of racing savvy over the mile distance and has plenty of experience at this meet (last year she finished 6th at this meet after leading a good chunk of the race). This season, Ince hasn't lost a race over 400 meters all year and I fully expect her to keep that going on Thursday night.

One interesting subplot in this race is the performance of the Cuthbertson Cavaliers.

The Cavaliers qualified three athletes (Charlotte Bell, Justine Preisano and Stella Kermes) for this race, a wildly impressive feat, and that development could lead to some interesting team tactics. The fastest of the Cavaliers is defending champion Charlotte Bell who has run 4:38 for 1600 meters this year and should be expected to contend for the win.

The last athletes I'm talking about today are the Pennsylvania duo of Logan St. John Kletter (Mt. Lebanon) and Olivia Cieslak (Haverford Township). These athletes took 1st and 2nd at the PIAA State Track & Field Championships over 1600 meters with St. John Kletter running 4:38 and Cieslak running 4:45.

Given everything that St. John Kletter has accomplished, there is no doubt that she'll be a factor in this race. Expect her to be a part of the lead pack for as long as she can and possibly be the first to respond to any significant moves.

As for Cieslak, the incredible foot-speed displayed en route to her 800-meter personal best of 2:04 will make her a very dangerous runner to face over the final 200 meters if she's able to stay within striking distance of the top group in the last lap.

High School Boy's Championship Mile

Drew Griffith (Butler) -- 3:57
William Steadman (Herriman) -- 3:59
Nathan Neil (Bozeman) -- 4:00
Clay Shively (Trinity) -- 4:00
Steven Hergenrother (Ridgefield) -- 4:00

I genuinely don't know how to describe how stacked this race is, but I'll give it my best shot. We may not see a new record for the number of sub-four-minute miles in a single race, but I do think that there is a very realistic possibility that we witness the entire field go under 4:08 for this mile race.

The obvious favorite is Notre Dame commit Drew Griffith (Butler) who broke an Alan Webb high school record last weekend, running 3:57.08 for 1600 meters to shatter the previous national record (the old record was 3:59.51 and does not include "en route" performances).

Additionally, Griffith is undefeated over the 1600 meters/mile distance during his outdoor track campaign. And now that he gets the opportunity to get into a fast-paced race, I think he can cut off some serious time of his mile personal best.

One runner who has been flirting with the four-minute barrier all year is Trinity's Clay Shively who ran under 4:01 on two different occasions during the indoor track season. Admittedly, Shivley has had a quiet outdoor track season, racing sparingly. However, I do still think he can match his personal best and maybe even dip under the four-minute barrier.

The final pair of athletes who I want to talk about are a pair of altitude-based talents in Nathan Neil (Bozeman) and William Steadman (Herriman).

Neil is known more for his prowess over longer distances, but after running 4:04 (1600) at elevation, I think he's ready to challenge for a top spot in this race. Depending on your thoughts on altitude conversions, William Steadman could absolutely break four minutes. After all, he did run a 4:02/1:51 (1600/800) double last weekend at the Utah Track & Field State Championships.