PREDICTIONS: 2024 California (CIF) Track & Field State Championships

Donald Speas
May 22, 2024
7 min read

Predictions & analysis by Donny Speas, additional edits & commentary via Garrett Zatlin

It's no secret that California is one of the best states in the country when it comes to the sport of track and field (at the high school level). In fact, there's a strong argument for California to be considered the best state in the country!

That's why we wanted to throw together some predictions for the always-entertaining California state meet and give some brief thoughts on which star athletes we have coming out on top this weekend...

CLICK HERE FOR ENTRIES

Girl's 800 Meters

Tessa Buswell (Poway) - 2:07
Keaton Robar (Newport Harbor) - 2:07
Makenna Herbst (Carlsbad) - 2:07
Kaitlyn Arciaga (Westview) - 2:08
L'Mio Edwards (Claremont) - 2:09

This girl's 800-meter field has five athletes seeded at 2:07 and they also happen to be the only five athletes seeded with sub-2:10 times in this field. Naturally, you can probably guess who I'm picking to fill out the top-five spots of this race on Friday.

The fastest of the bunch is Keaton Robar (Newport Harbor) who comes into this race with a 2:07.01 (800) personal best and is riding a massive hot streak. She has also notched six-straight victories over 800 meters. The only knock against Robar is that she doesn't have a whole bunch of established consistency, only running under 2:09 on one occasion this season. That, of course, isn't to say that she won't match her PR (or even set a new PR) later this week.

My personal pick for the win is BYU commit Tessa Buswell (Poway). Buswell brings loads of experience to the table, having made the finals of this meet over the last three years. Buswell hasn't quite made the leap to bring home the state title yet, but I don't see why she can't change that this weekend.

Boy's 800 Meters

Wyland Obando (Wilson Long Beach) - 1:51
Ambodai Ligons (Cathedral) - 1:52
Jack Paradise (Great Oak) - 1:52
JT Kraemer (Wilson Long Beach) - 1:52
Angel Cordero (Olympian) - 1:53

Wyland Obando has had an amazing season over 800 meters, dropping his personal best from a "just okay" 1:59.99 (800) mark to a phenomenal 1:51.53 result in a little under five months. That kind of momentum isn't something you see every day and for that reason (and the fact that he has a teammate in this race), I'm picking Obando to take home the win.

Another athlete with a very serious chance at victory is University of Washington commit, Ambodai Ligons. The soon-to-be Husky hasn't lost an 800-meter race in his last six attempts at the distance. Two of those races have been won in 1:51, giving me some confidence with Ligons' consistency in running top-tier times. Throw in some impressive 400-meter speed (his personal best of 47.69 which would have qualified him for this state meet) and you've got a legitimate title contender.

Girl's 1600 Meters

Sadie Engelhardt (Ventura) - 4:33
Chiara Dailey (La Jolla) - 4:43
Braelyn Combe (Santiago Corona) - 4:45
Sofia Lieberman (Murrieta Valley) - 4:45
Annie Ivarsson (Dana Hills) - 4:46

I don't think it's a bold statement to say that Sadie Engelhardt is the very, very heavy favorite in this event. It would be a huge upset if someone other than Sadie Engelhardt won the girl's 1600-meter title, but hey, they run the races on the track and not on paper for a reason.

There are plenty of solid athletes in this race with La Jolla's Chiara Dailey looking like the strongest of the bunch by virtue of her outstanding seasonal bests of 4:42 (1600) and 10:09 (3200).

Another athlete to look out for is Santiago Corona's Braelyn Combe who has run 4:45 (1600) and won the APU Meet of Champions earlier in the season. Both Combe and Dailey would typically be contenders for the win during most years, but with a titan like Engelhardt in the field, it's hard to imagine anyone else winning.

Boy's 1600 meters

Anthony Fast Horse (Ventura) - 4:07
Benjamin Bouie (Crystal Springs) - 4:07
Jason Parra (Millikan) - 4:08
Miles Cook (Sacred Heart Cathedral) - 4:08
Micah Grossman (Ventura) - 4:08

If the girl's 1600 meters is a race with a clear favorite, then this is a race with no favorite. The biggest name in this race is Oregon signee, Anthony Fast Horse, who flexes personal bests of 4:05 (1600) and 8:45 (3200). However, Fast Horse isn't the only athlete with a sub-4:10 clocking to his name as there are a whopping six different athletes who have broken the 4:10 barrier this outdoor track season.

One athlete who might be off the radar for a lot of people is Crystal Spring's Benjamin Bouie who just recently ran a 4:06.97 (1600) to break the CIF Central Coast record last weekend. Who knows what he'll be capable of when he gets a chance to mix it up against the rest of the state!

There are so many good athletes who are entered in this race that I couldn't properly write about all of them even in two different articles! In my opinion, this is most intriguing race of the state meet and simply making it to Saturday's final will be a huge accomplishment for any of these athletes.

Girls 3200 Meters

Rylee Blade (Santiago Corona) - 10:12
Hanne Thomsen (Montgomery) - 10:13
Jaelyn Williams (East Lake) - 10:15
Sydney Rubio (Huntington Beach) - 10:17
Olivia Foody (Aliso Niguel) - 10:19

Rylee Blade (Santiago Corona) has only lost one 3200-meter race this year and that came in the form of a 10:07 personal best effort which was "only" good enough for 7th place at the Arcadia Invitational back in April. But outside of that race, she has remained unbeaten in her seven attempts at the distance this outdoor track season. For that reason, I'm picking Blade to defend her state title over 3200 meters.

However, this race will by no means be a walk in the park as there are quite a few other athletes in this field who can certainly pull off the upset.

One such athlete is Montgomery's Hanne Thomsen. She holds the fastest 3200-meter personal best of any athlete in this race (9:55) which she ran at last year's edition of the Arcadia Invitational. She also most recently won the CIF Northern Coast Meet of Champions in a seasonal best of 10:15.

If Thomsen crosses the line with the victory on Saturday, it shouldn't come as surprise to anyone.

Boy's 3200 Meters

Evan Noonan (Dana Hills) - 8:50
Joshua Bell (Templeton) - 8:52
Jason Parra (Millikan) - 8:52
Carter Spradling (Clovis East) - 8:55
Grant Morgenfeld (Palo Alto) - 8:55

Evan Noonan (Dana Hills) looks like he should be favored to win this race as he qualified for this meet in both the 1600 meters and the 3200 meters, but ultimately decided only to focus on the 3200 meters. And I'll admit, I found that move pretty surprising considering that he holds the top 1600-meter time in the state (4:04.2).

Regardless, the combination of Noonan's top-end speed and fresh legs (many of his competitors will be doubling back from the 1600 meters) is enough for me to give the Noonan the edge here.

Of course, Noonan is far from the only runner in this race worth mentioning. I'd go as far to say that this is the deepest race that this meet has to offer with three seniors ranked in our Top-50 Recruit Rankings, plenty of underclassmen who will almost certainly be ranked in the future and loads of athletes who I've mentioned in some form or another while writing previous articles.

The most compelling of this group of athletes is Stanford commit Joshua Bell who has run the fastest 3200-meter time (8:42) of anyone in this field. The only reason I don't have Bell picked for the win is that I'm a little concerned about how his closing speed stacks up when compared to some of the other athletes in this field as I don't quite think Bell is strong enough to completely drop his competition (or more specifically, this field).

Girl's 4x800-Meter Relay

Ventura Cougars - 8:58
Granada Matadors - 9:07
Campolindo Cougars - 9:09
Cathedral Catholic Dons - 9:10
Del Norte Nighthawks - 9:12

The biggest question surrounding this race is whether or not we see Sadie Engelhardt appear in Ventura's lineup. Considering that there are roughly three hours between the girl's 1600-meter finals and the girl's 4x800-meter relay, I'd say that it's more likely than not that we see Engelhardt in this race. That, in turn, makes the Ventura Cougars massive favorites to bring home a state title in this event.

If we assume that Engelhardt races and Ventura win this event, then that will make the battle for 2nd place very intriguing. Three different squads (Granada, Campolindo and Cathedral Catholic) have all run within a quarter of a second of each other and with such small margins between the teams, all it takes is one athlete's breakout performance to secure a medal for their team. I'm leaning towards Granada to triumph out of this second pack due to the sheer number of relay combinations they have with eight athletes listed as potential alternates on the entries.

Boy's 4x800-Meter Relay

San Clemente Tritons - 7:40
Cathedral Phantoms - 7:42
Great Oak Wolfpack - 7:44
Jesuit Marauders - 7:46
Santa Barbara Dons - 7:46

At last year's CIF State Championships, we saw the San Clemente Tritons break the meet record in the 4x800 meter relay, running a phenomenal time of 7:38.59. And the scariest part? The Tritons are returning all four members of that relay team, looking to capture another state title in this event.

However, the Tritons have "only" run 7:43 this season and are the second seed behind the Cathedral Phantoms who lead all entrants with a seed time of 7:42.

Looking past the top-two squads, there is a wicked amount of depth, with an astonishing nine teams seeded at 7:50 or faster. One team to keep an eye on is the Great Oak Wolfpack who have a mind-boggling amount of talent in their lineup. To give their depth some perspective, they currently have 4:08 miler Westin Brown listed as an alternate. I'm not sure who will come out on top in this race, but with the amount of talent competing, I'm confident that it will be a battle worth watching.