.png)
PREDICTIONS: 2024 Foot Locker XC National Championships
Written by Joiner Evans & Donny Speas
Edits & additional commentary via Garrett Zatlin
After many months of competitive racing across the nation, it’s finally here.
"What is finally here," you may ask?
Why, of course, it is the Foot Locker XC National Championships!
This is the meet where 40 of the best boys and 40 of the best girls in the nation go head-to-head for the chance at the individual national title. And the other catch? There are no team scores or strategies to worry about.
Read up on all of our analysis (and predictions) below to see our takes on which athletes will cross the line first on Saturday morning at Balboa Park in San Diego, California...
Girl's Individual Race (5k)
1. Elizabeth Leachman (South)
2. Victoria Garces (Midwest)
3. Zariel Macchia (Northeast)
4. Caroline Barton (South)
5. Lilly Beshears (South)
6. Norah Hushagen (Midwest)
7. Cassidy Armstrong (West)
8. Chiara Dailey (West)
9. Virginia Kraus (Northeast)
10. Carolina Areheart (South)
11. Jessie Jazwinski (Midwest)
12. Rosie Mucharsky (Midwest)
13. Abby Faith Cheeseman (South)
14. Emily Cohen (Midwest)
15. Ruby Ihmels (Midwest)
16. Adria Favero (West)
17. Jaelyn Williams (West)
18. Brooke Strauss (Northeast)
19. Sophia Bendet (South)
20. Liv Sherry (Northeast)
Analysis: There is one major advantage that we as TSR writers have when it comes to writing about and making predictions for the Foot Locker XC National Championships. That, of course, is that we already got to see a good handful of these elite athletes compete at NXN last weekend!
Conveniently, we also got to see our top-two projected finishers, Elizabeth Leachman and Victoria Garces, go head-to-head in Portland, Oregon.
Last weekend, Garces triumphed over Leachman by the smallest of margins, beating out the Texas native by a mere 0.30 seconds. In turn, she took home runner-up honors while Leachman had to “settle” for 3rd place overall.
However, I’m picking Leachman to flip the script this weekend.
Garces is from central Michigan, an often cold and sometimes weather adverse area. Knowing that, I strongly believe that she greatly benefitted from the sloppy course conditions that we saw at NXN last weekend.
Of course, that is not to downplay her incredible performance in the slightest.
The course conditions in sunny San Diego this weekend couldn’t be any more different than what we saw in Portland. In fact, there is virtually zero chance of rain on either Friday (today) or Saturday.
Leachman is obviously familiar with the Foot Locker course as she won this race by 14 seconds last year. Remember, she already had a couple of strong races earlier in the season, highlighted by victories at the Foot Locker South Regional XC Championships and the UIL 5A XC State Championships. Tack on another year of racing experience, and I’m picking Leachman to break the tape this Saturday.
One top contender who did not race at NXN is Caroline Barton.
Barton has had a relatively under-the-radar fall campaign, competing sparingly. In the latter parts of the season, she has built up some scary-good momentum, taking home a win at the NCISAA 3A XC State Championships and most recently dipping under the 17-minute barrier at the Foot Locker South Regional Championships. There, she clocked a 16:59 (5k) mark to take runner-up honors behind Leachman.
Another runner who is coming off of a personal best at their regional meet is the Foot Locker Northeast Regional Championship winner, Virginia Kraus.
Kraus recently posted an encouraging 17:34 (5k) mark on a tough Franklin Park course. And despite being located at opposite ends of the country, that venue isn't too different from the extremely hilly Balboa Park course that she'll see on Saturday.
Keep an eye on Kraus -- she hasn’t raced a ton this season and could definitely surprise some unsuspecting athletes this weekend.
Of course, we also can't forget to mention Zariel Macchia, a truly elite high school distance runner who doesn't always seem to get the attention that she deserves. Sure, she faded back to 19th place at NXN, but she had not finished outside of the top-three in any race that she toed the line for leading up to last weekend!
Macchia has explosive personal bests on the track and a 10th place finish at last year's Foot Locker XC National Championships. She holds great value in a field that may be more manageable than it was in 2023. Experience both from last year and last weekend should also play into her favor come Saturday.
Another athlete who may catch some people by surprise is Jessica Jazwinski, the runner-up finisher from the Foot Locker Midwest Regional Championships. This will be Jazwinski’s third trip to the national meet after finishing 11th in 2022 and 9th last year.
She has run 16:52 for 5000 meters this fall and it looks like there’s a solid chance that she improves upon her previous finishes this weekend. Her experience on a sneaky-hard course like Balboa Park should, in theory, position her to be a fairly big threat on Saturday.
The final athlete who I’ll be highlighting is the winner of the Foot Locker West Regional Championships, Cassidy Armstrong.
Armstrong absolutely dominated her regional meet, winning by 23 seconds over the rest of the field. Outside of that race, Armstrong earned another resume-defining win at the Nike Hole in the Wall Invitational. There, she ran a blazing time of 16:43 for 5000 meters.
Armstrong simply has too many 5k performances under 17:30 this cross country season (eight in total) for her not to factor into Saturday’s championship race in some capacity. From a predictions standpoint, she is a pretty safe name to put in your top-10...I think.
Boy's Individual Race (5k)
Keegan Smith (South)
Juan Gonzalez (Midwest)
Jack Graffeo (Northeast)
Tamrat Gavenas (Northeast)
Robert Mechura (Midwest)
Soheib Dissa (Northeast)
Ben Crane (Midwest)
Sean Fries (Midwest)
Jack Bowen (South)
Josiah Tostenson (West)
Sam Quagliaroli (Midwest)
Noah Bontrager (Midwest)
Kade Brownell (West)
Tyler Dailak (West)
Matthew Giardina (Northeast)
Trey Caldwell (West)
Benjamin Anderson (Midwest)
Tristan Yoder (South)
Philip Cupial (Midwest)
Matt Gosling (Northeast)
Analysis: When looking ahead to the boy’s field at the Foot Locker National Championships, it's hard to pinpoint who will finish among the top-five, or even the top-10.
This boys field is wide-open as it features newly-minted NXN All-Americans, multiple regional champions and a handful of dark horse talents. While I do think that Keegan Smith will come home with the victory, this is anyone’s race to win.
Smith, the 6th place finisher at NXN last weekend and will look to improve upon his 35th place finish from the 2021 version of this meet. Believe it or not, Smith hasn’t made it out of the South region for this meet since that aforementioned 2021 race, but he will surely be motivated to make the most of his senior trip.
While Smith hasn’t faced many national-caliber fields this season, he has been a consistent standout during his high school career, gaining experience in a variety of top races including the Arcadia Invitational, Millrose Games and the Brooks PR Invitational.
Simply put, he knows how to navigate high-pressure stages. However, Smith will be coming off of three-straight weeks of racing in his legs. And truthfully, he won’t be the only one running on tired legs as many athletes will be doubling back from NXN.
Another athlete who has captured headlines all season long is five-time Nebraska state champion and All-American, Juan Gonzalez.
Gonzalez has picked up notable wins at the Foot Locker Midwest Regional Championships, the NXR Heartland meet and the Nebraska XC State Championships. The long distance juggernaut has run times 8:47 for 3200 meters and 1:53 for 800 meters, making him incredibly dangerous if the race isn’t decided until late.
Following the Nebraskan’s 10th place finish at NXN this past weekend, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take the race from the front to improve upon his performance.
Within our projected top-five, there are only two athletes with fresh legs. One of those names is Jack Graffeo, the only undefeated athlete in the field.
Following his impressive win at his regional meet against Tamrat Gavenas (who we have predicted to finish in 4th place), Graffeo makes a strong case for a top-three finish this weekend. However, the University of Colorado commit has only raced five times this season and might not be as sharp or as experienced when he’s not the best runner in the field.
The second athlete with fresh legs in our projected top-five is the aforementioned Tamrat Gavenas. The Philips Academy Andover senior is the top returner from last year’s Foot Locker XC National Championships after securing bronze.
Similar to Graffeo, Gavenas has only raced four times this season, so his upside/potential over the last four months is a little unknown. Even so, I don’t think you can ignore his 3rd place finish from last year’s national meet as he knows how to navigate (and succeed on) this course. Such experience will give him an advantage over first-time qualifiers.
Of all of the athletes who competed at NXN last weekend, Robert Mechura earned the second-best in 10th place.
Despite finishing in "only" 8th place at the Foot Locker Midwest Regional Championships and 3rd at the NXR Heartland meet, the University of North Carolina commit showed up at NXN to earn All-American honors. Ben Crane, another notable NXN All-American, comes into this Foot Locker meet with strong finishes at the Nike XC Town Twilight Invitational, the NXR Midwest meet and the Foot Locker Midwest Regional Championships.
With this race being anyone’s to take, there are several dark horses who I think we could see in the front pack.
For one, Jack Bowen has put together an impressive season and with fresh legs, he is incredibly dangerous. The future Tar Heel won the Nike XC Town Twilight Invitational, beating the newly-minted NXN champion, Charlie Vause as well as 4:04 miler TJ Hansen, All-American Evan Noonan and the previously-mentioned Ben Crane.
Another unknown will be Josiah Tostenson who finished 2nd at the Woodbridge XC Classic and was 5th at the Foot Locker West Regional XC Championships. However, a brief hiatus in Tostenson racing schedule this season did keep the Washington commit from competing during the middle of his fall campaign.
The bottom line is that this boy's race is simply too close to call. And frankly, I think the biggest factor at play is rest. Several competitors are coming straight from NXN and have competed for several weekends in a row. That, in theory, could open doors for those who are coming into the weekend fresh to potentially disrupt the potential pecking order.
