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PREDICTIONS: 2024 BIG 12 Outdoor Championships

  • Writer: Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
    Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
  • May 9, 2024
  • 5 min read

Among the Power Five conferences, the BIG 12 always seemed to play the role of the youngest sibling. While certainly a strong and competitive conference nationally, it was clear that the BIG 12 simply wasn't as strong (athletically speaking) when compared to the SEC, the BIG 10, the ACC and the PAC-12.


Of course, between the PAC-12's crumble and a mass introduction of new member schools, the BIG 12 is all grown up and the most competitive that it's ever been. Now, when it comes to this weekend, we'll get to see this revamped conference do battle for a league title.


Here is what we are predicting to see in the distance events over the next few days...

*Denotes that a collegian is also entered in another individual event. In these predictions, TSR is assuming that each runner is contesting an event fresh (i.e. not doubling back).


Men’s 800 Meters

  1. Finley McLear (Iowa State) - 1:46

  2. Yusuf Bizimana (Texas)* - 1:46

  3. Darius Kipyego (Iowa State) - 1:46

  4. Sebastian Fernandez (BYU) - 1:47

  5. Cole Lindhorst (Texas)* - 1:47


Analysis: Yusuf Bizimana is still the focal name of the men's 800 meters in the NCAA, but it feels like the Iowa State duo of Finley McLear and Darius Kipyego have shortened the gap between them and the Longhorn ace ever-so-slightly. In the grand scheme of things, we don't have any reason to doubt the English middle distance star from the Lone Star state. However, doubling back from the 1500 meters to face a fresh pair of Cyclones isn't going to make this race any easier for him.


Women’s 800 Meters

  1. Gabija Galvydyte (Oklahoma State) - 2:01

  2. Kelly-Ann Beckford (Houston) - 2:01

  3. Billah Jepkirui (Oklahoma State)* - 2:03

  4. Olivia Howell (Texas)* - 2:03

  5. Riley Chamberlain (BYU)* - 2:04


Analysis: Yes, Kelly-Ann Beckford did beat Gabija Galvydyte at this meet during the winter months and yes, she has run faster so far this season. Even so, the Oklahoma State veteran proved that she can peak for the postseason very effectively and her recent 2:02 (800) mark suggests that she's trending in the right direction at the right time.


Men’s 1500 Meters

  1. Brian Musau (Oklahoma State)* - 3:41

  2. Ezekiel Rop (Iowa State) - 3:41

  3. Alex Stitt (Oklahoma State)* - 3:42

  4. Yusuf Bizimana (Texas)* - 3:42

  5. Tyler Wirth (Cincinnati)* - 3:42


Analysis: Gosh, this race could be a thriller. I think you could make arguments for a variety of men to win this race. Brian Musau is probably the best distance runner from 1500 meters and up, but Ezekiel Rop is the best true miler in this field. Alex Stitt has the fastest seasonal best, Yusuf Bizimana has the best raw speed in the field and Tyler Wirth is tactically excellent. This is going to be a fascinating race, but choosing Brian Musau seems like the safest move....right?


Women’s 1500 Meters

  1. Billah Jepkirui (Oklahoma State)* - 4:10

  2. Gracie Morris (TCU) - 4:11

  3. Riley Chamberlain (BYU)* - 4:12

  4. Juliet Cherubet (Texas Tech)* - 4:15

  5. Sadie Sargent (BYU)* - 4:16


Analysis: Billah Jepkirui is the best miler in this field...but not by a lot. Riley Chamberlain has proven to be a borderline star (although more so during the winter than the spring) and Gracie Morris is on fire after throwing down a monster 4:29 DMR anchor split at the Penn Relays. Even so, I'll take Jepkirui who can seemingly do no wrong.


Men’s 5000 Meters

  1. Fouad Messaoudi (Oklahoma State) - 13:33

  2. Joey Nokes (BYU)* - 13:37

  3. Ernest Cheruiyot (Texas Tech)* - 13:39

  4. Alex Maier (Oklahoma State) - 13:39

  5. Brian Musau (Oklahoma State)* - 13:41


Analysis: Given that Fouad Messaoudi is going to be fresh for this race, I feel comfortable saying that he'll walk away with a BIG 12 title. This is someone who has run under 3:38 for 1500 meters twice this spring and is a multi-time top-half All-American on the grass. Behind him, I trust Joey Nokes the most in this race, but that's largely because Brian Musau will double back from the 1500 meters and because Ernest Cheruiyot is still very inexperienced.


Women’s 5000 Meters

  1. Taylor Roe (Oklahoma State) - 15:34

  2. Molly Born (Oklahoma State) - 15:38

  3. Juliet Cherubet (Texas Tech)* - 15:44

  4. Jenna Hutchins (BYU) - 15:49

  5. Billah Jepkirui (Oklahoma State)* - 15:55


Analysis: At a quick glance, you would expect this race to be the Oklahoma State show. Both Taylor Roe and Molly Born are the clear top-two options in this field, but it's not by as much as you would expect. That's because Texas Tech's Juliet Cherubet is much better than some people may realize and she could create some problems if the Cowgirls don't shake her early enough. After all, Cherubet holds a 15:25 (5k) PR from this season.


Men’s 10,000 Meters

  1. Ernest Cheruiyot (Texas Tech)* - 28:11

  2. Joey Nokes (BYU)* - 28:14

  3. Adisu Guadia (Oklahoma State)* - 28:27

  4. Sanele Masondo (Iowa State)* - 28:38

  5. Said Mechaal (Iowa State)* - 28:49


Analysis: I am someone who often avoids picking young and inexperienced runners on championship stages for my predictions, especially over the longer distances. But after seeing how strong and poised Ernest Cheruiyot looked in his 10k battle with Alex Phillip (where they both went under 28 minutes), I feel pretty confident in this Texas Tech rookie going into Thursday night.


Joey Nokes is looking just as sharp as he ever has and that should keep in contention to win. However, more importantly, this race will likely be fairly quick if Cheruiyot runs the same way that he did at the Bryan Clay Invite. In theory, that kind of racing style favors the skillsets of Adisu Guadia and Sanele Masondo.


Women’s 10,000 Meters

  1. Taylor Roe (Oklahoma State)* - 33:00

  2. Gabby Hentemann (Oklahoma State)* - 33:35

  3. Eva Jess (Texas)* - 33:46

  4. Dana Fayen (Iowa State)* - 33:50

  5. Anastacia Chepkorir (Texas Tech)* - 33:52


Analysis: It's Taylor Roe and then everyone else. That's the best way to describe this race. This will be a great opportunity for certain women to build momentum going into the regional stage, but Roe will keep this race fairly unexciting.


Men’s 3000-Meter Steeplechase

  1. Gable Sieperda (Iowa State)* - 8:35

  2. James Corrigan (BYU)* - 8:36

  3. Victor Shitsama (Oklahoma State)* - 8:36

  4. Wyatt Haughton (BYU) - 8:39

  5. Quinton Orr (Iowa State)* - 8:51


Analysis: I would argue that Gable Sieperda, James Corrigan and Victor Shitsama all have the ability to win this race. However, Sieperda has been flat-out better in this event this spring and his experience in this discipline is extensive.


James Corrigan, however, has had a great year across all three seasons and he may even be on a bit of a hot streak right now. Shitsama, meanwhile, has only raced twice this year, but an 8:36 mark suggests that he's still an All-American threat.


Women’s 3000-Meter Steeplechase

  1. Janette Schraft (Iowa State)* - 9:45

  2. Lona Latema (Kansas)* - 9:54

  3. Taylor Lovell (BYU) - 9:54

  4. Mikenna Vanderheyden (West Virginia) - 10:06

  5. Allie Warner (BYU) - 10:10


Analysis: After seeing how easily Janette Schraft dominated the Stanford Invite steeplechase field back in late March, I would be very surprised if she lost. Lona Latema has proven that she's great in the postseason and Lovell is having a breakout spring campaign. Even so, this Iowa State's steeplechase ace has likely grown even stronger since late March, making her that much harder to take down.

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