PREDICTIONS: 2024 BIG 10 Outdoor Championships

Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
May 9, 2024
6 min read

The BIG 10 is one of the nation's best conferences when it comes to athletics. However, the conference will grow even stronger with the upcoming introduction of Oregon, Washington, UCLA and USC starting this fall. And when it comes to track and field, that makes this already-strong conference even better.

This weekend will be the final rendition of the BIG 10 as we currently know it. And with the conference competition only improving, athletes and coaches alike will be gunning for championship titles before that task becomes even more challenging for the foreseeable future...

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*Denotes that a collegian is also entered in another individual event. In these predictions, TSR is assuming that each runner is contesting an event fresh (i.e. not doubling back).

Men’s 800 Meters

Rivaldo Marshall (Iowa) - 1:46
Adam Spencer (Wisconsin) - 1:46
Handal Roban (Penn State) - 1:46
Camden Marshall (Indiana) - 1:47
Andrew Casey (Wisconsin) - 1:48

Analysis: There are four men who could legitimately win this race and they are appropriately listed as my top-four names in these predictions. Rivaldo Marshall is the safest pick given how strong he has looked throughout the spring months, but Handal Roban has historically peaked for the postseason.

Adam Spencer may not be a pure 800-meter runner, but he has proven multiple times before that he can be a massive threat in this event. His raw fitness could carry him to a title on Sunday. As for Marshall, don't forget, he's the defending indoor conference champion at this distance. And if this field gives him an opening, he can (and likely will) take full advantage of that opportunity.

Women’s 800 Meters

Hayley Kitching (Penn State) - 2:02
Alli Bookin-Nosbisch (Iowa) - 2:04
Aniya Mosley (Ohio State)* - 2:05
Brooke Jaworski (Minnesota)* - 2:05
Victoria Vanriele (Penn State) - 2:06

Analysis: This is Hayley Kitching's race to lose as I struggle to see someone giving her any real trouble this weekend. However, it should be noted that Alli Bookin-Nosbisch has been the next-most consistent half-miler in this field.

And while I like Aniya Mosley quite a bit, having her double back from the 1500-meter finals on the same day (assuming she qualifies) makes it challenging to envision her getting past Bookin-Nosbisch.

Men’s 1500 Meters

Evan Dorenkamp (Penn State)* - 3:47
Nick Foster (Michigan)* - 3:48
Trent McFarland (Michigan) - 3:50
Henry Johnson (Michigan) -3:50
Eli Hoeft (Minnesota)* - 3:50

Analysis: If Vegas was setting betting odds for this race, I think they would have Michigan's Nick Foster as the title favorite. And while I agree that he is the favorite on paper, I could very easily see Evan Dorenkamp taking this win.

Dorenkamp has fantastic turnover and is often really great in tactical championship races. Nick Foster, however, is arguably the better overall miler from a time and fitness standpoint. But given the struggles that the BIG 10 veteran has had on this stage in the past and his underwhelming effort at the Wake Forest Invite, I'm taking the Nittany Lion ace in this one.

Of course, if you're Michigan, that likely won't make a big difference in the grand scheme of things. The Big Blue men have tons of great runners in this field and I wouldn't be surprised if they made up at least half of the scoring positions in this race.

Women’s 1500 Meters

Kileigh Kane (Penn State)* - 4:17
Lauren Freeland (Michigan State)* - 4:17
Alexandra Carlson (Rutgers)* - 4:19
Aniya Mosley (Ohio State)* - 4:20
Madison Mooney (Wisconsin) - 4:20

Analysis: Kileigh Kane is probably favored to win this race given her consistency over the last few months, her standout personal bests, her strong range and prior national meet experience. However, Lauren Freeland is an excellent tactical racer and often peaks for the postseason better than most women.

Alex Carlson could be a key name to watch if she continues to pick up momentum while Aniya Mosley could very well win this race if she is able to validate her fantastic 4:12 (1500) effort which gave her a win at the Penn Relays.

Men’s 5000 Meters

Skylar Stidam (Indiana)* - 14:00
Austin Haskett (Indiana)* - 14:04
Johnny Livingstone (Wisconsin)* - 14:09
Luke Venhuizen (Michigan) - 14:16
Logan Measner (Wisconsin)* - 14:17

Analysis: Gosh, this is such a tricky race to predict. Many of the conferences best longer distance runners have mostly opted out of this event. And among the men who are viewed as top contenders in this field, they'll also be doubling back from events like the steeplechase and the 10,000 meters.

To me, Skylar Stidam and Austin Haskett have been the best two runners in this field across a variety of distances and they have great momentum, too. Even so, racing on tired legs leaves us with a lot of unknowns going into Sunday's race.

Women’s 5000 Meters

Florence Caron (Penn State)* - 15:45
Katie Osika (Michigan State) - 15:48
Sophia Toti (Penn State)* - 15:53
Leane Willemse (Wisconsin) - 15:55
Danielle Santos (Ohio State)* - 16:02

Analysis: Florence Carson has simply been the best 5k runner of anyone in this field. She's run 15:42 and 15:32 over this distance in just this season alone. Her last race also yielded a 4:13 (1500) PR. With a winter campaign validating this recent rise in fitness, it's hard to find many arguments against her.

Katie Osika, however, is an accomplished veteran who has tons of experience. She ran a 15:39 (5k) PR earlier this spring and could absolutely up-end Caron for gold come Sunday. Sophia Toti, meanwhile, has tons of momentum under her legs, thriving in the longer distances this spring. If she's feeling good, then I wouldn't be shocked if she stays with her teammate until the very end.

Men’s 10,000 Meters

Tom Brady (Michigan) - 29:03
Skylar Stidam (Indiana)* - 29:06
CarLee Stimpfel (Michigan State) - 29:16
Zubin Jha (Ohio State)* - 29:37
Micah Wilson (Wisconsin)* - 29:45

Analysis: Tom Brady is very clearly the best 10k runner in this field and Skylar Stidam is very clear the second-best 10k runner in this field. After that duo, I opted to choose reliable veterans who have shown great consistency and know what to expect on Friday night.

Of course, guys with underclassman eligibility such as Andrew Lane, Abe Eckman and Hayden Healey (among others) have showcased enough talent to be top-five contenders. Eckman in particular could be very dangerous with his 28:58 (10k) PR. However, the rest of his resume makes that result look like a significant outlier, ultimately making him a major x-factor going into Friday night.

Wisconsin's Evan Bishop is entered in this race with no time. He's talented enough to finish in the top-three, but his recent lack of racing and two unexciting results was enough for me to leave him out of my picks.

Women’s 10,000 Meters

Sophia Toti (Penn State)* - 33:28
Danielle Santos (Ohio State)* - 33:43
Andrea Kuhn (Ohio State)* - 33:44
Florence Caron (Penn State)* - 34:04
Samantha Saenz (Michigan)* - 34:20

Analysis: I just think Sophia Toti is better than the rest of this field and that's the only way that I can explain why I chose her to win. Her times and recent momentum have been too good to not give her consideration for the title.

The Ohio State duo of Danielle Santos and Andrew Kuhn have been very steady this spring. They both thrive in the longer distance races and they almost always run side-by-side. Caron may be the most talented runner in this field, but this is also her first-ever 10k. And when it comes to Samantha Saenz, she is someone who has been quietly awesome at nearly every BIG 10 meet that she has contested over the last few years. I don't expect that to stop this weekend.

Men’s 3000-Meter Steeplechase

Logan Measner (Wisconsin)* - 8:44
Austin Haskett (Indiana)* - 8:46
Caleb Jarema (Michigan) - 8:50
Andrew Nolan (Michigan State) - 8:50
William Merrick (Illinois) - 8:51

Analysis: Gosh, it feels like there are a handful of names who could win this race. Logan Measer is probably the favorite given his 8:37 (steeple) PR and the fact that he's run four different personal bests in his last four races (if you include cross country). And after getting silver in this race last year, I see the Wisconsin runner taking home gold in 2024.

Austin Haskett, however, has arguably been better than Measner which you factor-in his indoor track campaign. He is very dynamic and has been a great steeplechaser for a while. If he's still around the leaders with a lap remaining, he'll be a massive threat for gold.

Caleb Jarema also ran 8:37 in the steeplechase in the same race that Measner ran his PR. Admittedly, the rest of his resume is quite as extensive as what Measer and Haskett have shown. However, it's clear that the Michigan talent has elevated his fitness this year when you see all of the personal bests that are scattered near the top of his TFRRS profile.

Women’s 3000-Meter Steeplechase

Makenna Krebs (Penn State)* - 10:01
Zoie Dundon (Minnesota) - 10:01
Taya Skelton (Nebraska)* - 10:19
Taylor Kreitinger (Minnesota) - 10:22
Emma Squires (Purdue)* - 10:23

Analysis: Zoie Dundon is the only woman in the field with a steeplechase seed time that sits under 10 minutes (9:57). However, Penn State's Makenna Krebs isn't far behind with a 10:01 mark of her own.

Dundon is only a freshman and that inexperience on a championship stage in an event as variable as the steeplechase has to be taken into consideration. That's ultimately why I took Krebs for the win, but there's a very real scenario where Dundon builds on her fitness even further and produces a monster PR.