Hokie Invitational Preview

Additional contributions by Garrett Zatlin

Last weekend gave collegiate distance running fans plenty to talk about and this weekend is primed to be no different. In Blacksburg, Virginia, the Virginia Tech Hokies will be play host to numerous ACC rivals as many top programs attempt to reenter the national conversation following the holiday break.

Below are the major headlines that you need to keep in mind for this Friday and Saturday...

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NC State Women Headline Off-Distance 1000 Meter Event

The NC State women have a truck-full of momentum coming into the month of January after their dominant win at the cross country national meet and a plethora of stellar performances at the Boston University Season Opener back in December.

Rather than putting an emphasis on the 3000 meters and 5000 meters this weekend, the Wolfpack women are expected to run a majority of their top talents in the 1000 meters (and in the mile) in an attempt to refine their speed.

Some women, based on the entries, will be doubling up between the two events.

NC State's Kelsey Chmiel, an established 5k/10k superstar, is the surprise entrant for both the 1000 meters and the mile. Chmiel typically doesn’t compete in the shorter distances and hasn't always given the impression that she can thrive in shorter events like the mile.

However, given that she will be racing teammates Samantha Bush, a recent 8:54 (3k) runner, Alexandra Hays, who is coming off of a 15:33 (5k) breakthrough performance, and Savannah Shaw, who sports a personal best of 4:17 for 1500 meters, it's very possible that Chmiel will be pushed to a sub-4:40 result this weekend.

And frankly, that's really all she needs to accomplish.

At the end of the day, the Wolfpack star is attempting work on her speed in the 1000 meters and/or the mile this weekend which will hopefully prove to us that she has improved her turnover and could produce a fast finish in a tactical setting on the national stage if it comes down to that.

However, the one woman who could quietly make some noise in this field is the aforementioned Bush. The recent breakout 3k performer has also held her own in the middle distances. Her 2:09 personal best for 800 meters, while far from Earth-shattering, could potentially pair well with her recent 3k personal best of 8:54.

If that line of thinking is accurate, then a major 1000 meter performance could be in store for Bush this Friday.

In terms of potential challengers in the 1000 meters, the Wolfpack will most likely be tested by a slew of North Carolina Tar Heel freshmen, all of whom seem to be working on their speed just like the NC State women are.

The Tar Heels, who will be led by Brynn Brown, Sydney Masciarelli and Carlee Hansen in this field, will be testing out their middle distance speed in an effort to further complement their long distance credentials.

All of these women have run stellar 1600/mile times as prep athletes and will be joined by teammate Taryn Parks, a 2:06/4:46 runner who is due for a major breakout performance.

Meanwhile, Virginia Tech’s recent graduate transfer from Duke, Leigha Torino, is a 2:05 runner for 800 meters who will look to play spoiler to the NC State and UNC women in this event.

Torino just ran 2:47 for 1000 meters last weekend, finishing less than one second behind teammate Hannah Ballowe, who also happens to be entered in the race. In theory, given their specialty at this distance, Torino and Ballowe should be favored to take home top finishes this weekend.

Women's Mile Features Mix of Veterans & Youngsters

As we move to the mile, Georgetown's Maggie Donahue and Virginia's Mia Barnett will put forth their best efforts this weekend against distance-heavy contingents from NC State, Duke and North Carolina.

Hoya standout Maggie Donahue is coming off of an All-American finish at the cross country national meet, the second of her career, as well as a 15:49 performance for 5000 meters at the Boston University Season Opener.

This will be Donahue’s first collegiate mile effort, leaving us to wonder how her long distance endurance will translate to the speedier middle distance event. At the same time, we also have to wonder if this is just a simple attempt to drop down in distance and work on her speed.

It's likely the latter, but we can't help to think that she'll be able to run something along the lines of 4:39 (or maybe faster) this weekend. If she does that, then don't be surprised if Donahue pursues the mile more seriously this winter while her national qualifying hopes in the 5000 meters hang in limbo throughout the season.

We then come to Mia Barnett, an outstanding prep athlete from California who ran 4:39 at this distance back in high school. After a respectable freshman cross country season, the UVA rookie will be making her season debut this weekend in what is debatably her main event.

If it's a close race, the true freshman from Virginia will need to channel her 2:07 (800) speed in an effort to close hard with some of the veterans in this field. We'll be fascinated to see how someone like Barrett, who is so talented but so inexperienced, handles a field of veterans who are dropping down into Barrett's main event specialty, albeit with more collegiate racing experience.

Amongst those veterans will be the previously mentioned NC State trio of Chmiel, Hays and Shaw. Of these three women, Shaw has the best chance at winning the race given her 4:42 PR and her extensive experience in the 1500/mile.

At the same time, we have to wonder how seriously these three ladies will view the mile this weekend. The women's mile and the women's 1000 meters are separated by less than two hours with the mile being the distance event that is contested first.

Could Shaw, Chmiel and Hays truly be doubling back in the 1000 meters? Or will they be acting as pacers in one of the two events? Will they just drop out of one of the events entirely?

It's hard to say, but we'll be monitoring that potential double on Friday night.

As for the rest of this field, we have to acknowledge Duke standout Michaela Reinhart. The 4:43 miler and long distance specialist will be looking for redemption after not qualifying for the NCAA XC Championships this past fall.

This is likely the perfect field for Reinhart as she starts her indoor track season. It's a deep mile field loaded with talented women, but many of these women are dropping down in distance and on paper, it's unlikely that we see a ton of results past the 4:38 mark.

In theory, this will be the perfect group of women for Reinhart to chase. She'll still be shaking off some January rust, but she can also improve her mile speed and battle top competition (which shouldn't be too overwhelmingly strong) at the same time. Don't be surprised if she runs a new PR this weekend.

The Tar Heels, while not as deep as they are in the 1000 meters, are led by 4:46 runner Emmeline Fisher in the women's mile. She'll be joined by a slew of younger UNC stars including Sasha Neglia, Ava Dobson and Kelsey Harrington.

Keep in mind that many of these women from Chapel Hill didn't compete on the indoor oval last winter due to their focus being solely on the cross country national meet. Don't be surprised if one of those women has a breakout race after not getting to contest this distance last year.

Tar Heels Go All-In For the Men's Mile

The North Carolina men have entered nine runners in the mile for this weekend's Hokie Invite, six of whom are underclassmen.

Senior Alex Ostberg, a 2020 summer graduate transfer from Stanford, has once again returned to the indoor oval and leads the Tar Heels with his 3:59 personal best in the mile. Of course, veteran teammate Jesse Hunt won’t be far behind after running 3:39 for 1500 meters during the 2021 outdoor track season.

Ostberg has the most endurance of anyone in this field with his monster 7:49 (3k) personal best. Despite that, Hunt’s speed may be enough to hold on for the win and improve upon his current 4:03 mile PR. Hunt is, after all, identified as more of a miler than Ostberg is.

Meanwhile, true freshmen Parker Wolfe and Sully Shelton have each run 4:06 and 4:07 for the 1600 meters, respectively, during their time in high school. Fellow rookie Ethan Strand has run 4:07 for the mile.

Wolfe’s 4:06 mark is impressive given that he ran that time at altitude in Colorado. He is also coming off of an outstanding freshman cross country campaign, highlighted by a 28th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships.

Could Wolfe contest for the win? It seems unlikely, especially with Ostberg and Hunt in the field, but Wolfe has surprised us before and he could end up sticking with an ultra-fast time that potentially puts him under 4:00.

If this race plays out like we think it will, then a 3:59 mark doesn't seem completely unrealistic for Wolfe.

As for Shelton, he will be making his debut as a Tar Heel. Meanwhile, Strand, who will be looking to rebound after a tough go at the NCAA XC Championships, will benefit from having plenty of teammates around to help push the pace.

Also entered for UNC are Patrick Anderson and Michigan State transfer John Gove. Anderson has run 3:44 for 1500 meters and has also run 13:53 for 5000 meters. Meanwhile, Gove has run 1:50 for 800 meters. He will be contesting his first collegiate mile this weekend.

However, we also have to keep in mind that some of these men may simply be entered in this race for pacing purposes. It wouldn't come as a surprise if two of those freshmen or two off-distance talents toed the line with the aim of pacing Ostberg, Hunt and maybe Wolfe to sub-four minute performances.

Now, obviously, this men's mile field is not just made up of Tar Heels.

The Virginia Cavaliers are throwing one of their top talents in this field with 13:44 (5k) runner Rohann Asfaw set to toe the line.

Asfaw owns a 4:08 mile PR, but if he plays his cards right against some of these strong UNC milers, then he could be pushed to a time closer to the 4:02 range. His cross credentials and long distance accolades suggest that he is due for a new mile PR.

We should also note that Yasin Sado will be joining Asfaw, his teammate, in this race with his 4:06 mile personal best.

As for the other entries, Duke is headlined by Rory Cavan, a highly underrated 3:43 (1500) runner who has made steady improvements during his time with the Blue Devils. If he can translate his best performances from last spring to the indoor oval, then he could be a fairly competitive name in this field.

Cavan is also joined by Nick Dahl, a previous Ivy League who is quietly one of the better milers on this team. He's run 4:01 before, putting him in position to potentially attack a sub-four mark if everything goes right.

Meanwhile, teammate Carter Dillon is fresh off of a 4:06 mile PR and could stand to lose a few more seconds if he is able to bring his momentum into this race.

As for NC State, they have entered long-time veteran Gavin Gaynor, a 4:07 miler, in this field as well. Tennessee will be fielding Tim Thacker, a 4:06* runner who is on the rise for the Vols.

Editor’s Note: Thacker ran 4:01 in the mile unattached this past summer.

Given the fast pace that we expect the UNC men to establish, it's very possible that someone like Asfaw, Sado, Cavan, Dahl, Gaynor, Dillon or Thacker will earn a major personal best assuming they are able to earn a spot in the fastest heat.

Virginia Tech vs Virginia Tech in Men’s 1000 Meters

A week after competing in his first race for Virginia Tech via the 3000 meters, recent graduate transfer Seb Anthony will be coming back down to the middle distances in order to race alongside newest teammates Antonio Lopez Segura, Ben Fleming, Tyler Lesser and Benjamin Nibbelink.

In other words, it's likely going to be an all Virginia Tech affair in the 1000 meters come Friday.

Anthony is coming off of a huge 37-second personal best in the 3000 meters, an event that he has now only contested twice. The newest Hokie ace has run 1:48 for 800 meters and 3:44 for 1500 meters.

This will be Anthony's first 1000 meter race of his career, but after such a strong opener last weekend and arguably the best middle distance credentials of anyone in this field, the former Queens University star looks primed to compete for the win just as much as his new teammates are.

That said, Hokie standout Lopez Segura has the potential to keep Anthony from extending his win streak to two. The Virginia Tech veteran has a set of wheels on him with a 3:59 mile PR and a personal best of 7:55 for 3000 meters, an event that he was an All-American in last year.

Lopez Segura has contested the 1000 meters before, running 2:23, and has the endurance to stick with a fast pace from the gun. He may not have the 800 meter credentials that Anthony does, but Lopez Segura does have the raw talent and top-tier mile mark to contend for a win and a potential sub-2:23 mark.

Fleming is in a similar boat as Lopez Segura as he is also a sub-four minute miler and has run 7:58 in the 3000 meters. And just like his teammate, Fleming has also run 2:23 for the 1000 meters.

Fleming has plenty of experience racing for the win and will surely not let his teammates get away from him. He has just as much of a chance to earn this victory as anyone else in this field.

Meanwhile, based strictly on 1000 meter personal bests, Lesser and Nibbelink could be viewed as the underdogs in this race behind their three teammates mentioned above.

Lesser has run 2:24 while Nibbelink has run 2:26 in the off-distance event. Lesser has more of a middle distance background with experience in the 800/1500, while Nibbelink comes from the longer distance side of things.

Of course, Nibbelink is just as accomplished as Lopez Segura and Fleming. His personal bests of 3:58 (mile) and 7:56 (3k) give him enough raw talent to be a major factor in this race. If you believe that stamina-based strength can be translated to the 1000 meters, then Nibbelink may be your guy to take home the win.

That said, don’t count out Lesser’s 1:53 speed for 800 meters. He could be a sneaky-good dark horse with that previously mentioned personal best of 2:24.

Major Opportunities in the DMR

Both the men and the women competing at the Hokie Invitational will have the chance to begin assembling DMR teams and see which pieces work together.

The UNC men will likely be a team to watch. The Tar Heels have plenty of guys who are hovering right around that 4:00 mile barrier, and even have a few men who have dipped under 4:00. There are too many established veterans, up-and-coming middle distance runners and talented rookies on this roster for UNC not to put something competitive together in the DMR this weekend.

Looking to take down UNC will be Virginia Tech. The Hokies have depth on their roster in the middle distance events, especially with the likes of new transfer Seb Anthony and Antonio Lopez Segura. Of course, with other sub-four milers like Nibbelink and Fleming as potential options, the Virginia Tech men could go all-in on a potential national qualifying time in the DMR this weekend if they want to.

Of course, the Hokies have traditionally done what 90% of most middle distance powerhouses have done each and every winter: Wait until late February to run a national qualifying time in the distance medley relay.

The Virginia Tech women are another team worth keeping an eye on. With Lindsey Butler, one of the best 800/1500 runners in the NCAA, Hannah Ballowe and 800 meter standout Leigha Torino on this roster, the Hokies are stacked to the brim with middle distance firepower.

Ballowe’s talents could bode well on the 1200 meter leg if Torino opts for the 800 meters. In theory, Butler would be best suited for the mile, especially after such a strong spring season in the 1500 meters.

As strong as that lineup looks, this DMR field, on paper, doesn't appear to offer enough competition to push the Hokies to a nationally competitive mark. That leaves us a bit uncertain as to what we should expect from this relay come Saturday.