Golden Guessing

When it comes to winter cross country, the men's national team title race seems to be fairly predictable. Northern Arizona, when they're at 100%, looks like they are the best team in the country and the clear favorite to take home NCAA gold in March. Meanwhile, BYU looks like the only realistic contender to take down the Lumberjacks given their mix of experience, firepower and depth.

For the most part, that's all that you really need to know on the men's side.

But what about the women? Which teams are in the national title hunt? Which teams can realistically put themselves in a position to win NCAA gold? That answer could differ depending on who you ask and depending on a handful of developments over the next three weeks or so.

So what did we decide to do? Well, we're breaking down each women's national title contender and evaluating how they could end up on top of the podium in the middle of next month.

Let's begin...

I suppose the first team that we need to talk about in the women's national title conversation is New Mexico, a program that just took down a slew of highly accomplished teams (such as Stanford and Colorado) in Las Vegas this past Friday.

The Lobos are a team that lost all three of their All-Americans from their 2019 podium-placing lineup. Not having Kelati, Kurgat and Nuttall was supposed to decimate the up-front scoring of this New Mexico team which had relied on their low-sticks to bring them national-level success for years.

However, New Mexico has since revamped their lineup with new talent from overseas and multiple graduate transfers. So instead of the insane firepower that we're used to seeing from this squad, fans of the New Mexico women were instead treated to a different style of racing which featured exceptional depth.

That helped them take home the win in a somewhat smaller field on Friday, but how will that lineup structure fare at the national meet?

On paper, New Mexico probably has one runner in Adva Cohen who can be considered as an an All-American lock in March. Teammate Gracelyn Larkin could also enter that fold, but we've only seen her race once and I would argue that her most recent result puts her only on the fringe of a top-40 finish at the national meet.

Typically, teams that win the national title need at least three All-Americans (and preferably four) in order to stand atop of the podium.

Does New Mexico have that kind of firepower right now? Truthfully, I'm not sure that they do, and in a field as large as the national meet, I'm inclined to think that the backend scoring fallacies from other teams will be comparatively less impactful than they were in a smaller, 12-team field where only seven programs scored less than 200 points.

To put it simply, I think the Lobos still need more low-sticks if they are going to be the national title favorites. That doesn't mean they can't win it all, but one or two more women are going to have to match what we just saw out of Adva Cohen if New Mexico is going to hoist the trophy come March.

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Speaking of firepower, let's talk about Stanford. They have the exact opposite problem as New Mexico. They have a ton of firepower, but their depth is lacking, thus creating a ton of vulnerability at the backend of their lineup.

The Cardinal women remind me a lot of the title-winning Arkansas women from 2019. Both teams had / have numerous top low-sticks, but there was / is plenty of uncertainty in the second-half of their respective lineups. If even one person has / had an "off" day at the national meet, then the prospects of NCAA gold cratered.

The problem for Stanford, however, is that their top-five isn't as complete as Arkansas' was, at least not right now.

Ella Donghu and Zofia Dudek currently look like the best 1-2 punch in the NCAA when it comes to cross country. They could both finish in the top-10 at the NCAA XC Championships in March and I don't think anyone would be surprised. Meanwhile, Julia Heymach looks like a solid middle-lineup contributor who is ultimately on the fringe of being in the All-American conversation.

However, so much has fallen apart for this Stanford team in the second-half of their lineup.

Jessica Lawson doesn't look anything like the 11th place finisher that she was at the 2019 national meet.

Jordan Oakes was in the non-varsity field at the Silver State XC Challenge and was absent from competition in her last race.

Northwestern graduate transfer and 2018 cross country All-American Aubrey Roberts has struggled in her two races so far this year, finishing well outside of scoring range.

Redshirt freshman Grace Connolly looks like a solid talent, but her second race of the season showed us how inexperience can be a challenge for certain athletes when racing against high-caliber competition.

Abi Archer, the 53rd place finisher from the 2019 national meet, was unable to replicate that effort in her first race of this season and was instead entered in the non-varsity field at the Battle Born XC Challenge a few weeks later.

If only one of these women were struggling, then this wouldn't be a big deal. Stanford would still have a (somewhat) complete top-five and their firepower would give them an edge over most teams that they face. However, their backend options are becoming increasingly more limited.

Stanford now has a little less than a month to figure out how they're going to amend the second-half of their lineup. If Lawson eventually trends towards being the runner that she was in 2019, then the lack of depth becomes (slightly) less of a problem.

The good news for the Cardinal is that they still have enough talent and success through four scorers to put them on the podium.

* * *

The women from Palo Alto were our preseason favorites to win the national title, but the other option for that preseason TSR #1 spot was NC State.

The Wolfpack had a phenomenal cross country season this past fall, but they often raced in smaller fields and then dominated their competition at the ACC XC Championships. Dominique Clairmonte looked like a true low-stick while Hannah Steelman was just as impactful in the scoring. With Mariah Howlett putting together a pleasantly surprising 7th place finish at her conference meet, the Wolfpack women had plenty to be happy about.

However, when it came to their place in the national title conversation, there was significant uncertainty that still lingered. Freshman phenom Katelyn Tuohy didn't compete last fall and neither did fellow rookie teammate Marlee Starliper. We also saw sophomore Kelsey Chmiel struggle a bit after earning a top All-American finish in the fall of 2019.

The NC State women had a complete top-five at the ACC XC Championships, but if they want to truly compete for a national title, they'll need a few weapons to step into this lineup.

The good news, however, is that Tuohy finally made her collegiate debut this past weekend which resulted in a very respectable, flat-track converted time of 9:14 for 3000 meters. In that same meet, Chmiel had a bounce back performance in the 5000 meters, running 15:58 which earned her a flat-track conversion of 15:50.94.

Neither Chmiel nor Tuohy need to be superstar elite low-sticks in order for NC State to win the national title. Even if they are just fringe All-Americans, that should theoretically give the Wolfpack a good-enough mix of firepower and depth to win NCAA gold a few weeks from now.

That, however, assumes that their recent performances will effectively translate from the track to the grass, and that's not always a given. Still, if I had to guess, I would think that the NC State women have the best chance of winning it all (on paper).

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Let's transition to talk about the Arkansas women, another team with an absurd amount of depth. The Razorbacks have been flat-out incredible on the indoor oval this year, running wicked fast marks in pretty much every distance event.

Lauren Gregory, Krissy Gear, Logan Morris and Gracie Hyde are having the best indoor track seasons of their careers, consistently posting top times and big personal bests on their home track. Katie Izzo is also running exceptionally well, but she is out of cross country eligibility.

With others like Taylor Ewert and Abby Gray continuing to post strong marks of their own, it seems plenty realistic that the Arkansas women could actually defend their 2019 national title despite losing all four of their All-American scorers.

Lauren Gregory looks like she'll be a star All-American low-stick a few weeks from now, but we're not entirely sure how the Razorbacks' recent success on the track will translate to the grass.

And yes, while some people may argue that the women's 6k requires less of an adjustment when transitioning from track to cross country than it does for the men's 10k, these are still two different sports. I'm not sure that it would be absolutely safe to assume that Arkansas' success on the track will seamlessly transition to the grass.

The women from Fayetteville, Arkansas were excellent this past fall, but their SEC performance, while strong, wasn't quite as dominant as we expected it to be. They had a ton of depth and a complete top-seven, but how many of these women are going to be All-Americans?

Right now, Lauren Gregory is the only Arkansas runner listed in our Top 50 individual cross country rankings. That, of course, could change if Logan Morris and Krissy Gear run just as well on the grass as they have been on the indoor oval.

Are the women from Arkansas a podium team? Yes, most likely. However, a lot has happened since last fall and we don't entirely know what their plan is going to be for the national meet. With so many incredible performances being thrown down on the indoor oval this year, it feels like the Razorbacks may be placing an emphasis on the NCAA Indoor Championships this winter.

If the Arkansas women are aiming to win a national team title on the indoor oval, does that mean that their distance runners will be doubling back for the cross country national meet just a few days later?

I suppose we'll have to wait and see...

* * *

Speaking of a team that has a ton of uncertainty, the next contender that we need to mention is BYU. The women from Provo, Utah have rallied this year despite losing some top-tier cross country scorers from their 2019 squad. They have displayed some of the best depth in the nation and may have a more complete top-seven than both Arkansas and NC State.

However, the uncertainty lies with their low-sticks. Will they have enough firepower to compete for a national title?

Whittni Orton hasn't raced this winter as she has reportedly been dealing with foot pain. Will she return this winter? And if so, what kind of shape will she be in?

Anna Camp dropped an unbelievable time of 8:52 for 3000 meters (unattached) earlier this season and posted a very solid 2nd place finish at the Silver State XC Challenge, but where in the All-American conversation does that place her? Camp has been strong on the cross country course, but not nearly as strong as that 3k time suggests that she can be.

And how about Aubrey Frentheway? She finished 4th at the Silver State XC Challenge and it wouldn't at all be a surprise if she finished within the top-40 at the cross country national meet in March. At the same time, it also wouldn't be a total shock if she wasn't an All-American.

The depth of this BYU team is some of the best in the nation. The youth of their backend scorers isn't ideal, but the bigger concern is whether or not Orton is going to be healthy enough to race at a high level for 6000 meters on the grass three weeks from now.

If Orton, Camp and Frentheway are the All-American candidates that we think they can be, then I don't think it's impossible for BYU to take home a national title.

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As for the other programs, there could be arguments made for Colorado, Michigan State and Washington.

The Buffaloes earned a huge upset win over Stanford earlier in the year, but Rachel McArthur was sidelined in their last race for "precautionary reasons". However, even if she were to return, the women from Boulder, Colorado would likely need one or two more low-sticks to realistically put themselves in the title conversation.

Michigan State was outstanding at the BIG 10 XC Championships and boasted a complete top-five. They had a unique balance of firepower and depth in that race, but we've only seen this cross country team compete once this year and we truthfully don't have a great gauge as to just how good they are outside of the BIG 10.

They could end up being far better than we think they are, but losing two All-Americans from a non-podium team and then suddenly becoming a national title program a year and a half later through pure development would be a bit of a surprise.

As for Washington, they may be one of the most dangerous teams in the NCAA on paper, but they were without a handful of key scorers at the Battle Born XC Challenge. Plus, the top runners who did compete this past Friday posted some relatively unexciting results.

When the Huskies are at their best, they could be in the national title conversation, but after a 6th place team result in Las Vegas, that seems like a bit of a stretch.

* * *

Uncertainly has essentially defined the past year, both in and out of competition, so it's only appropriate that we are left with plenty of head scratching and a plethora of questions when it comes to one of the most important races of the year.

That, however, is why the women's race on March 15th could end up being an absolute thriller.