Five Things to Watch: ACC Indoor Championships

Conference weekend has arrived! While we would certainly love to cover any and all conference meets around the country, our narrow content schedule and delayed release of the performance lists can sometimes make it tricky to provide numerous previews in just one or two days.

Luckily, we were able to get a hold of the performance list for the ACC Indoor Championships a bit early! While we may not touch on every distance event at this meet, we did want to highlight five "things to watch" for this championship battle.

Let us begin...

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The Greatest Collegiate Women's 3k Field of the Season?

The 3000 meters has arguably been the most exciting and entertaining distance event to follow this year, specifically on the women's side. Despite Lauren Ryan's jaw-dropping 8:47 effort from earlier this month, and BYU's Courtney Wayment eventually returning to the indoor national meet as the defending champion, this event seems to be heating up for NCAA gold.

The ACC Indoor Championships could offer a quick preview of what we could expect at the indoor national meet in March as many of the nation's top 3k runners are entered in this field.

On paper, Florida State's Lauren Ryan is probably the favorite, but even that can't be said convqnginly (which we'll get to in a moment).

Ryan has run a jaw-dropping time of 8:47 for 3000 meters this season, but she is also plenty versatile, securing marks of 4:36 (mile) and 15:40 (5k) this winter. Her combination of speed and endurance makes her a lethal distance running weapon regardless of the race scenario.

Despite her dynamic resume, Ryan will have her hands full with NC State's Kelsey Chmiel. Depending on who you ask, this Wolfpack superstar is arguably just as much of a favorite in this race as Ryan is.

Chmiel has built her reputation in the longer distances, dominating the cross country scene and recently running 15:27 for 5000 meters back in December.

If this were the 5000 meters, then Chmiel could be argued as the overwhelming favorite, and rightfully so! Her raw endurance is some of the best in the country and she has clearly thrived in aggressive paces.

However, the 3000 meters better suits Ryan than it does Chmiel, making this battle, in theory, a bit tighter than some may expect.

Of course, this isn't to say that Chmiel can't win this race -- she absolutely could! Her surprisingly quick 4:36 mile effort from earlier this season indicates that she may have the necessary turnover and leg speed to stick with the often ramped-up paces of most competitive 3k battles.

After all, it's not like Chmiel is a slouch at this distance. She has run a flat-track converted time of 8:55 this winter at the JDL Fast Track facility.

The biggest wildcard in this race is unquestionably Notre Dame's Maddy Denner. After a phenomenal cross country season, which she ended with a 9th place finish at the national meet, Denner took to the indoor oval back in December and ran a surprisingly quick time of 15:27 for 5000 meters.

There was a brief lull in Denner's career where she proved to be a solid talent, but wasn't quite reaching the elite tier of performances that we knew she was capable of. That narrative, however, was quickly disposed of after that 5k result.

Denner, much like Chmiel, has always struck me as a true long distance-oriented runner. In theory, she's going to be a great marathoner one day.

However, unlike Chmiel, it doesn't seem like Denner has the same proven leg speed and turnover that someone like Chmiel does, much less Lauren Ryan. The Notre Dame ace did contest the 3000 meters at the Iowa State Classic the other week, but faltered in that race, placing 9th overall in a time of 9:36.

There is no question that Denner is better than what that recent 3k time indicates, but...how much better is she really? Her 3k personal best sits at 9:15 and her mile personal best sits no faster 4:49.

Denner has the 5k and cross country results to support the idea that she can run near (or around) 9:00 in the 3000 meters. However, whether or not that actually happens is the biggest question mark for her this weekend.

Despite those three women headlining the field, there's very real potential that none of them end up winning the race. That's because NC State is fielding four additional stars in Samantha Bush, Savannah Shaw, Alexandra Hays and, yes, after long last, Katelyn Tuohy.

If NC State wants to, they can control this field from the front. When you add in Chmiel to that group, all five of these Wolfpack women are capable of running with the leaders. That's a dangerous reality for women like Ryan and Denner who will need to navigate around a small army of elite talents all from the same team.

Samantha Bush will be the key name to watch as she, on paper, has some of the better middle distance speed to thrive in a tactical setting. Her personal best of 8:54 in this event is wildly impressive, but her flat-track converted 4:37 mile time, as well as her ultra-fast 2:43 mark for 1000 meters, should make her a factor late in this race if the pace is slow enough.

As for Tuohy, she hasn't raced since December, so seeing her in these entries is a huge relief. However, a lot can change over the span of two months. What should we expect from the young phenom? She has enough raw talent to emerge with the gold medal, but that isn't necessarily a guarantee to happen based on who is entered in this field.

A few more quick notes...

Georgia Tech's Nicole Fegans is a veteran who has also has sneaky-good mile speed. With a national qualifying bid on the line, she won't be afraid to stick her neck into the front section of this race. She has a 4:36 mile PR from this season and is likely capable of running around 9:00 in a perfect scenario.

Be sure to also keep an eye on Duke's Michaela Reinhart and Notre Dame's Olivia Markezich.

Reinhart is a great veteran and is plenty familiar with the top women in this field. She recently ran 9:11 for 3000 meters and rarely has a poor performance.

Meanwhile, Markezich is on a hot streak and could be due for a major breakout race. She just split 4:33 on the anchor leg of Notre Dame's DMR and has run 9:08 for 3000 meters this winter. She may be due for a sub-9:00 result.

Final Predictions:

1. Lauren Ryan (Florida State) -- 8:55

2. Katelyn Tuohy (NC State) -- 8:56

3. Kelsey Chmiel (NC State) -- 8:56

4. Olivia Markezich (Notre Dame) -- 8:57

5. Samantha Bush (NC State) -- 8:59

6. Nicole Fegans (Georgia Tech) -- 8:59

7. Maddy Denner (Notre Dame) -- 9:01

8. Alexandra Hays (NC State) -- 9:03

Men's 800 Meters: Massive Postseason Implications

If you had told me going into this season that Samuel Voelz, an established 800 meter superstar, wouldn't be in a national qualifying position coming into the ACC Championships, I would have had a hard time believing you.

That, however, seems to be the case.

There are seven men in this 800 meter field with seed times under 1:49, making this one of the deepest collegiate half-mile fields that we've seen all winter.

It's hard to say if there is one specific favorite in this race.

Miami's Moroccan superstar, Ayman Zahafi, has run 1:47 twice this season, the only athlete in the NCAA to do so. One of those sub-1:48 efforts came at the Meyo Invitational where Zahafi took down a loaded field which featured the Notre Dame trio of Samuel Voelz, Tim Zepf and Bashir Mosavel-Lo.

On the flip side, Zahafi's second 1:47 effort of the season came at Clemson where he finished 3rd overall behind Texas star Jonathan Jones and little-known middle distance standout Aman Thornton of Clemson.

With Thornton also entered in this race, Zahafi will now have a chance to redeem his earlier loss. But which version of Zahafi will we see this weekend?

Does he have the necessary tactical acumen to win a championship-style race? These kind of environments are rarely ever similar to what we see in the postseason, especially with preliminary rounds now being involved.

The question is similar for Thornton. The transfer from Illinois who had run 1:48 last spring, but we weren't expecting him to move to a middle distance powerhouse and instantly improve upon that mark in the always more challenging indoor circuit.

This weekend will be a critical point in Thornton's season. A top finish and/or fast time this weekend could validate his early-season success. This will also be pivotal meet for Thornton when it comes to his understanding of navigating rounds at his newfound level of fitness.

While Thornton was no stranger to prelims during his time in the BIG 10, it seems fair to say that the middle distance firepower in the ACC is greater in terms of top-end talent, and maybe even depth as well.

We then come to the aforementioned Notre Dame trio of Samuel Volez, Tim Zepf and Bashir Mosavel-Lo. As talented as these men re, none of them are in a national qualifying position, each owning seasonal bests of 1:48 this winter.

The good news for both Voelz and Mosavel-Lo is that these two men tend to peak in the postseason, specifically at the ACC Championships. They are easily the most experienced half-mile stars in this field and have often contended with each other in prior conference meets.

Despite their extensive experience and tactical acumen, this veteran duo is going to be in a tough spot. While they will certainly be eyeing to score points at this meet, trying to run fast enough to qualify for the NCAA Indoor Championships is going to add a different kind of pressure that should be (somewhat) rare for these men.

We also have to acknowledge Tim Zepf who may actually have most momentum of this Notre Dame trio. The graduate transfer was great in the Ivy League, but Coach Sean Carlson has clearly made Zepf a better runner, both aerobically and tactically.

After splitting 1:47 on the Fighting Irish's DMR the other weekend, Zepf could be entering the ACC Indoor Championships with tons of confidence. Much like his teammates, he doesn't have much to lose, so expect him to stay with aggressive paces as he seeks a national qualifying mark.

With the current NCAA #16 time sitting at 1:47.79, all three of these ND runners will likely press the leaders and follow fast paces to dig into the low-1:47 range. That may be the bare-minimum requirement needed to qualify for the indoor national meet assuming that the rest of the conference meets run as fast as we expect them to.

Of course, we can't forget about Seb Anthony. The recent Virginia Tech standout is on the verge of a monster performance. He has run 2:20 for 1000 meters this season and owns a personal best of 1:48. His improved mile and 3k times this winter, along with that previously mentioned 1000 meter effort, indicates that he is at an entirely new level of fitness.

The D2 All-American graduate transfer isn't new to racing against top-level competition, but even the 800 meter field that he faced at the D2 NCAA Indoor Championships last year pales in comparison to this ACC field.

I have no worries about Anthony making it through the prelims. However, despite being one of the top names in this field, this will probably be the most competitive race that he has ever toed the line for. I'll be fascinated to see how he handles that setting once he's there.

One last name to note is Tarees Rhoden (Clemson). He has run 1:48 and was the 5th place finisher (and the 4th place overall collegiate) in that same 800 meter race as Jones (Texas), Thornton (Clemson) and Zahafi (Miami) from earlier this month. He's a massive wild card, holding only two 800 meter times on his resume, one of which was a 1:50 mark.

Final Predictions:

1. Samuel Voelz (Notre Dame) -- 1:46.88

2. Ayman Zahafi (Miami) -- 1:47.23

3. Aman Thornton (Clemson) -- 1:47.84

4. Seb Anthony (Virginia Tech) -- 1:47.99

5. Tim Zepf (Notre Dame) -- 1:48.03

6. Bashir Mosavel-Lo (Notre Dame) -- 1:48.12

7. Oskar Bambals (Miami) -- 1:48.65

8. Tarees Rhoden (Clemson) -- 1:48.90

Women's Mile: Who Is The Favorite?

The women's mile at the ACC Indoor Championships is in store for a thrilling battle. With six women seeded under 4:40 and numerous women on the fringe of a national qualifying time, there is quite a bit at stake in this race.

Yes, freshman Mia Barnett (Virginia) is the top seed in this field, but let's start with the Florida State duo of Maudie Skyring and Lauren Ryan, two top talents who have run 4:36 in the mile this season.

What is important to note here is that the FSU women are NOT running a DMR at the ACC Indoor Championships. That is a massive development. The 'Noles decision to seemingly punt on qualifying a DMR for the indoor national meet, despite having the pieces to field an All-American relay, basically signals that the Florida State women are going all-in on their individual events.

This means that Skyring, who is not near a national qualifying position in the mile right now, basically has one more chance to pursue a national meet bid this weekend. With no one in this field holding a seed time faster than 4:35, this Florida State veteran may have to be the aggressor in this race.

Let's chat about Skyring's teammate, Lauren Ryan.

Her 5000 meter time of 15:40 from back in December sits at NCAA #13 at the moment. In theory, Ryan should be safe to qualify for the national meet in that event, even after performances from this weekend. Scratches will help as well.

With the 3000 meters likely being Ryan's priority on day two of the indoor national meet, the 5000 meter finals, which take place on day one of the national meet, is likely going to be the best move for her.

While Ryan could push for a qualifying bid in the mile, she would need to run substantially faster to be in the All-American conversation. Not only that, but Ryan would then have to run the mile finals on the same day as the 3000 meters.

With the 5k in her back pocket, my long-standing theory that Ryan should run the mile at the indoor national meet begins to make less and less sense. But how could I have known that she would run 8:47 for 3000 meters this season?

In other words, the time that Ryan throws down in this mile race will not be as big of a priority as it is for Skyring. In theory, that should allow Ryan to focus on winning rather securing a fast time.

One of the main contenders to that Florida State duo is rising star Mia Barnett. The true freshman from Virginia has been phenomenal this season, maintaining a hot streak of improvement from the beginning of the season.

This winter, Barnett has run mile times of 4:40, 4:37 (converted) and then 4:35, all in consecutive efforts. With the possible exception of Ryan, no one in this mile field has the same season-long momentum that Barnett does, making her a name on the verge of yet another PR which could translate to a win.

However, with prelims now involved, there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding this youngster.

How will she handle multiple mile races in two days? How will she fare against experienced mile veterans with more established resumes? What kind of race approach will we see from Barnett? Can she maintain her momentum in this high-pressure setting?

Despite those numerous question marks, Barnett has reached a point in her young career where she doesn't know that she isn't supposed to be this good.

Don't be mistaken, that's a massive compliment which centers around the idea that Barnett is completely unafraid of her competitors despite her youth. Of course, not all the time does elite success in high school translate to the collegiate level. When it does, it's not always as immediate as what we've seen from Barnett.

The NC State trio of Samantha Bush, Anna Vess and Savannah Shaw are the last three women seeded under 4:40 in this race. Each of these distance runners bring something to unique to this field.

Bush posted a respectable flat-track conversion of 4:37 in the mile at JDL earlier this season, but her combined marks of 2:43 for 1000 meters and 8:54 for 3000 meters suggest that she is likely faster than that, possibly in the 4:35 range. Her extensive range should make her a very real threat to win this race, even as much as Lauren Ryan.

Shaw, meanwhile, has run 4:39 in the mile this season and has proven to be a top-tier name in the 3000 meters. However, despite her success in the longer distances, Shaw has always struck me as more of a miler.

If Skyring is willing to make this pace a bit faster, then I think Shaw's proven long distance endurance could carry her to a fairly substantial personal best.

As for Anna Vess, she is easily the most underrated name on this NC State roster and maybe in this field. She just ran 4:37 in the mile two weekends ago at the same meet where she ran 2:09 for 800 meters. Vess is a veteran and seems to be peaking at the perfect time of the year.

The elder NC State runner is more of a speed-based talent, so she could thrive in a tactical setting. However, with a national qualifying birth likely in her sights, it might be hard for Vess not to go after an aggressive pace.

Also, watch out for youngsters like Carlee Hansen (North Carolina) and Margot Appleton (Virginia). They may be true freshmen, but they've had really strong and underrated seasons this winter despite their youth. If they have no issues making it out of the prelims, then they could very easily score points for their respective teams.

Keep in mind that Appleton will be busy this weekend as she is currently entered in the DMR, the mile and the 3000 meters.

Final Predictions:

1. Lauren Ryan (Florida State) -- 4:35

2. Samantha Bush (NC State) -- 4:35

3. Maudie Skyring (Florida State) -- 4:36

4. Mia Barnett (Virginia) -- 4:37

5. Savannah Shaw (NC State) -- 4:37

6. Anna Vess (NC State) -- 4:37

7. Carlee Hansen (North Carolina) -- 4:38

8. Margot Appleton (Virginia) -- 4:40

Men's 3k: Florida State vs Notre Dame vs Virginia Tech

This may be one of the craziest 3000 meter races that we have seen all season long -- and that's a pretty lofty statement considering some of the results that we've already seen in this even.

Based on the entries, there are 22 men who are seeded with sub-8:00 marks and eight men who are seeded with sub-7:50 marks. That's an insane amount of depth and firepower for one race to have.

However, keep in mind that seed times don't necessarily equate to actual performances. After all, Florida State's Adriaan Wildschutt is seeded at 7:32 while Notre Dame's Dylan Jacobs is seeded at 7:35 -- both well under the collegiate record of 7:38 set by Yared Nuguse earlier this year.

I get that this is a historically elite year, but why are those seed times are so unreasonably fast? I do believe that both Wildschutt and Jacobs could MAYBE run under 7:40 for 3000 meters after their legendary 5000 meter performances from the other weekend, but mid-to-low 7:30's is...well, that's just crazy talk (I think).

Now, in defense of the Florida State and Notre Dame coaching staffs, there was probably a conversion calculator used for those seed times. If you go to this link, Wildschutt's and Jacobs' 5k times convert to their exact 3k seeds.

Do the seed times really matter in the grand scheme of things?

No, not really, but I couldn't help but to mention it anyway.

It seems fair to say that Wildschutt and Jacobs will be the two favorites in this race, especially after their monumental 5k performances earlier this month.

In theory, Wildschutt will likely be the aggressor. That has been his marquee game plan in many of his best races throughout his career, although he has learned to refine that approach to produce top-tier results on a much more consistent basis.

And honestly, Wildschutt will probably need to assert an aggressive pace anyways. He's not yet in a national qualifying position for the 3000 meters and slowing the pace down to anything remotely tactical could allow speedy milers like Antonio Lopez Segura and Ben Fleming, both of Virginia Tech, to be major factors in this race.

As we move to Jacobs, the 3000 meters, in theory, could be his best racing distance. He ran a fairly quick mile time earlier this year with a mark of 3:57. Pairing that result with his endurance-heavy 13:14 mark for 5000 meters would effectively make the 3000 meters a perfect middle ground for him.

What we do know is that Jacobs can hang with fast paces, and that will likely be necessary if he wants to avoid Wildschutt from running away from him early-on. However, evaluating Wildschutt's long distance dominance and comparing it to Jacobs' well-balanced resume leaves us unsure as to which athlete will come out on top.

The next two seeds are also from Florida State and Notre Dame. Those men are Ahmed Muhumed and Matthew Carmody, respectively.

Both of these guys had HUGE breakout races in the 5000 meters at Boston University earlier this month, running 13:26 and 13:27, respectively. However, those performances were such massive breakout results that we are now left a little unsure as to how these two men will fare in this loaded 3k race.

There is no doubt that they can hang with fast paces, but their mile prowess isn't nearly as proven as a few of these other men. In fact, their 3k personal bests, in general, just aren't as fast as guys like Fleming, Lopez Segura and North Carolina's Alex Ostberg.

I have no idea how to gauge expectations for these two men. The same goes for Notre Dame's Josh Methner who ran 13:32 for 5000 meters the other weekend. In theory, an aggressive pace favors him, but will he have enough turnover to earn a top finish?

I may be overthinking this, but I suppose we'll see soon enough.

For Virginia Tech's Antonio Lopez Segura and Ben Fleming, this upcoming 3k battle could end up being a major statement race for both men.

Lopez Segura has been a tricky name to gauge this winter. We've known how talented he is, but his 7:43 mark for 3000 meters was a flat-track conversion and his 3:56 mile PR resulted in a somewhat comfortable win.

In a race that will certainly be fast, but is more about placement, the greatest aspects of his Lopez Segura's resume will be put to the test. How he approaches and handles the tactics of this race will be a really solid indicator of what we could expect at the indoor national meet.

Fleming has a similar resume, albeit a bit slower, posting marks of 7:49 (3k converted) and 3:59 (mile) this winter. With a national qualifying birth out of his reach in every distance event he has contested (including the DMR), Fleming will likely be someone who is racing with nothing to lose.

How Fleming holds on to a presumably fast pace will result in either him securing a massive breakout performance or him faltering out of a point scoring position.

Or maybe I'm wrong!

I can't always predict the future, guys.

North Carolina veteran Alex Ostberg is in this race with a 7:49 seed and in theory, this field favors his strengths as a distance runner. He is fit enough to hang with a fast pace, but Ostberg has also had a few up-and-down performances in his career.

I would think that his extensive experience will at least guarantee him to score a few points, but I'm not entirely confident about that, either.

Syracuse's Nate Henderson is a sneaky-good name who has a 3:59 mile PR on his resume while North Carolina's Patrick Anderson runs with no fear despite his youth.

Another name to keep an eye on is Wake Forest standout Luke Tewalt who set the U20 record in this event earlier in the season with a time of 7:56. When younger guys like him build momentum, they can be difficult to bring down. His recent 3:59 mile personal best is an indicator of that.

Final Predictions:

1. Adriaan Wildschut (Florida State) -- 7:40

2. Dylan Jacobs (Notre Dame) -- 7:42

3. Antonio Lopez Segura (Virginia Tech) -- 7:45

4. Josh Methner (Notre Dame) -- 7:46

5. Ahmed Muhumed (Florida State) -- 7:48

6. Matthew Carmody (Notre Dame) -- 7:49

7. Luke Tewalt (Wake Forest) -- 7:49

8. Alex Ostberg (North Carolina) -- 7:50

Quick Mix: Nuguse, Dahl, Wolfe, Tuohy & Butler

Yes, I know, I'm sorta cheating here with this quick list, but I felt like this was appropriate given the entries. A lot of what I said in the men's and women's 3000 meters could be applied to the 5000 meters as well. So let me wrap this up with a few quick notes...

• Yared Nuguse is only entered in the DMR which is...odd. That seems like a lot of points being left on the board, but that also leads me to believe that he may be pursuing a seriously heavy workload at the national meet. Could this lead to a potential triple at the NCAA Indoor Championships? That seems like a lot, but it's not totally unrealistic...

• With Nuguse not running the mile, this feels like Nick Dahl's race to lose. The Duke standout has run 3:55 this season and while Thomas Vanoppen (Wake Forest), Jesse Hunt (North Carolina) and Ben Nibbelink (Virginia Tech) could be major threats, it's hard to see a scenario where Dahl isn't the favorite for gold.

• Josh Methner (Notre Dame), Matthew Carmody (Notre Dame) and Alex Ostberg (North Carolina) are all entered in the 5000 meters, as is UNC freshman Parker Wolfe. I like Wolfe a lot, especially in a field that should theoretically be pretty quick. After seeing Methner and Carmody run so fast the other weekend, it's hard to say that they aren't the favorites, but Wolfe is primed for a big race this weekend.

• NC State's Katelyn Tuohy, despite not racing since December, is entered in the 5000 meters in addition to the 3000 meters (with the 5k coming first). Even with Notre Dame's Maddy Denner and teammate Alexandra Hays in that same 5k field, I still think Tuohy is the favorite. She is clearly at another level this year after her 8:54 (3k).

• Virginia Tech's Lindsey Butler should be favored to win the women's 800 meters, although it's pretty wide-open after that. I'll be curious to see how fast Butler runs as she typically peaks perfectly for the postseason, as do her Virginia Tech teammates.