Five Things to Watch: 2022 Weis-Crockett Invitational (Pre-Nationals)

All of the attention and hype for this weekend will rightfully be centered around the Nuttycombe Invitational. Of course, we can't just ignore this year's Pre-Nationals meet.

Admittedly, the Weis-Crockett Invitational isn't the most competitive Pre-Nationals field that we've seen in past years. Even so, there are a handful of highly-competitive programs set to toe the line on Saturday who could produce some interesting results.

Below, we highlighted five aspects from the Pre-Nationals entries that the general public should be monitoring going into the weekend. Here we go...

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Oklahoma State Women Field Full Lineup...Minus Molly Born

The Oklahoma State women are going to be the overwhelming favorites to take home the win during Saturday's race...and it probably won't be close.

The Cowgirls are fielding a lineup that is basically identical to what we saw at the Cowboy Jamboree, entering a group that features Natalie Cook, Taylor Roe, Gabby Hentemann and Billah Jepkiuri.

On paper, no other women's team in this field should be able to match that kind of firepower.

However, it should noted that 2019 cross country All-American and long-time OSU veteran, Molly Born, is not listed in these Pre-Nationals entries. That's a fairly minor concern that we didn't think twice about back in September.

As we approach the mid-point of the season, it would have been nice to see her in this field.

The basis for the Oklahoma State women having elite-caliber success this fall is based on the idea that they'll have a complete scoring-five that can put the Cowgirls on the podium. However, as we saw at the Cowboy Jamboree, Born's absence leaves the OSU women slightly vulnerable in their final scoring slot.

In a field like this, that scoring drop-off shouldn't be much of an issue. On paper, Oklahoma State is simply the best team in this race and there shouldn't be much of an argument.

But the major goal for the Cowgirls on Saturday will likely be to evaluate what their reinforcements are able to do before they venture into the postseason.

One would think that Born could return for their conference, regional and national meets, but building high-end depth in the meantime should be the priority for this program in the off-chance that she doesn't return to this lineup.

Oklahoma State Men Hold Out Most Of Their Top Scorers

According to a preseason quote from Coach Dave Smith, the Oklahoma State men will (potentially) not have a key varsity contributor this season, although we still have to figure out who that might be.

And unfortunately for distance running fans around the country, we won't get any further insight about who that name is during Saturday's race.

That's because Rory Leonard and All-American superstars Alex Maier, Victor Shitsama, Shea Foster and Isai Rodriguez are all absent from Saturday's entries.

Maier, Shitsama and Leonard have already raced this season (incredibly well, I might add), but neither Foster nor Rodriguez have toed the line in 2022. If either Foster or Rodriguez are actually out for the season, then that would be a massive blow for the Cowboys' chances of truly contending for a national title.

But to be clear, we're not saying that we know with any certainty who that absentee runner is (or will be). We also don't even if anyone is going to actually be left out of this lineup come championship season.

We only have the same preseason quote that everyone else has.

In the meantime, Saturday's race will likely give us an idea of what we should expect from the backend portion of Oklahoma State's varsity group in 2022.

Ryan Schoppe, a standout distance talent who ran 7:46 for 3000 meters this past winter, is toeing the line for Pre-Nationals this weekend -- and his performance will arguably be the most important result that we will see in this entire race.

Schoppe is supremely talented, but so far in his young career, he has lacked consistency on the grass. His recent 98th place finish at the Cowboy Jamboree back in September supports that idea.

But when Schoppe is racing at his absolute best, then there shouldn't be any question about whether or not he's a top-40 All-American talent come November -- we just need to see him deliver on that potential first.

If he does run well at Pre-Nationals, then Schoppe could be viewed as a low-stick scoring replacement for Oklahoma State this fall. If someone in this lineup is, in fact, missing in the postseason, then a potential rise from Schoppe could give this team an All-American-caliber replacement.

But if everyone on Oklahoma State's squad actually runs like we thought they would during the summer months, then a massive race by Schoppe at Pre-Nationals would theoretically give the Cowboys elite depth that matches the likes of Northern Arizona, Stanford and BYU.

A Major Opportunity For The Montana State Men

With the Oklahoma State men holding out their projected top-five scorers, one has to wonder if the Montana State men are actually favored to win this race.

At Joe Piane, the Montana State men thrived with some upper-tier pack-running. The combination of Ben Perrin, Duncan Hamilton, Matthew Richtman, Cooper West and Levi Taylor went 20-23-29-35-37 in the overall results.

Not only that, but their sixth man, Rob McManus, also settled for a very solid 42nd place finish!

We came into this season expecting the Bobcats to rally around elite firepower in hopes that it would counter a drop-off in their depth. But as it turns out, they don't seem to have any scoring drop-offs or deficiencies within their top-six.

And for a roster as small as theirs, that is super impressive.

The craziest part is that I think a lot of these MSU men are capable of slightly better performances this weekend. I thought Perrin and Hamilton could have been closer to the top-15 at Joe Piane and on a perfect day, Levi Taylor probably could have been better as well.

Are the Bobcats invincible in this field?

No, certainly not.

Even after an underwhelming showing at the Chile Pepper XC Festival, the Arkansas Razorbacks still have a handful of pieces who could be really dangerous if Montana State isn't careful.

It's a similar story for the Butler men who have a few key low-sticks who may actually be able to counter some of the firepower that the Bobcats are expected to have (in fact, they already did a few weekends ago). Not only that, but the Butler men will likely see better performances from their supporting cast than what they produced at Joe Piane.

Even California Baptist, a team that boasts sneaky-good low-sticks and an underrated group of backend talent, could find themselves pulling off an upset victory.

But as long as Montana State runs like they did in South Bend a couple of weeks ago, then they should win this race...right?

What Will We Learn About The Liberty & CBU Women?

I really like the Liberty women. They were so much better at Joe Piane than I think some people may realize.

In South Bend, Indiana, the Flames were able to earn a solid 6th place finish. That was a fine result, maybe even an encouraging one, but on paper, it didn't turn any heads.

However, when you realize that Liberty was 12 points behind Florida State and 44 points behind Notre Dame, one has to think that this team is closer to being a top-20 program, nationally, than not.

The Liberty women were also without Adelyn Ackley-Fairley in that Joe Piane race, someone who was a preseason top-50 individual runner in our summer rankings. The Flames' second low-stick would have made a massive difference at Joe Piane, potentially allowing the Liberty women to pull off an upset over the Fighting Irish.

However, Ackley-Fairley isn't listed in the entries for Saturday's race...again.

And that's a bummer.

But truthfully, Ackley-Fairley might not make that big of a difference in this Pre-Nationals field. The Oklahoma State women should run away with the win easily on Saturday. The only other team in this field that could pose as a threat to the Liberty women is California Baptist.

At the Griak Invitational, the Lancers were good...really good.

The CBU women scored just 95 points, were 10 points behind a top-ranked Utah team and took down the likes of Michigan State, Colorado State, Ohio, Wisconsin, Wyoming and Iowa State.

As a result, the California Baptist women leaped to a TSR #16 ranking in our latest update.

At the Griak Invitational, Yasna Petrova (3rd) was far better than we were expecting, Greta Karinauskaite (16th) has seamlessly translated her steeplechase success over to the grass and their supporting cast of Maja Dzialoszewska (20th) and Maelle Porcher (21st) were very pleasant surprises.

Admittedly, their fifth runner faded back to 35th place overall in that Griak meet, but the Lancers' overall balance of firepower and middle-lineup contributors was awfully impressive.

And while this Pre-Nationals field may certainly have numerous teams entered for Saturday, it's not necessarily a top-heavy meet or a super deep meet. In theory, that means that CBU's scoring drop-off at their fifth lineup spot shouldn't create too much vulnerability.

The battle between Liberty and California Baptist will be absolutely pivotal when it comes to each team's aspirations for reaching the postseason. Both teams are in fairly deep regions and trying to earn an automatic bid in their respective regional races, while not impossible, is extremely unlikely in 2022.

While each team likely already has one or two Kolas points from previous races this season (CBU might even have three), the team that finishes runner-up behind Oklahoma State on Saturday might improve their chances of advancing to the national meet.

Maybe not by a lot, but at least by a decent margin.

This Is A High-Stakes Race For The Butler & CBU Men

Qualifying for the cross country national meet in November is an obvious goal for almost every nationally competitive team in the NCAA. However, some programs have greater opportunities than others.

And when it comes to the Butler men and the California Baptist men, Pre-Nationals might be their best chance to return to this same cross course in November.

I'm about to dive into some Kolas discussion which might be a little tricky to follow along with if you're not too familiar with how the national qualifying system works.

But just work with me here, I'll keep this pretty straightforward.

The Butler men tied for 5th place at Joe Piane, but ultimately settled for 6th after losing on the tie-breaker to Charlotte.. Even so, they were able to take down both NC State and Michigan in the process.

In theory, those two teams should be able to advance to the NCAA XC Championships later this season if they run as well as we think they will with fully-loaded lineups.

NC State and Michigan should grant the Bulldogs two Kolas points, but that's not a guarantee. You could also argue that beating Cal Poly, Boise State and Florida State may yield another Kolas point for Butler, but that doesn't feel super likely.

As for California Baptist, they finished runner-up at the Griak Invitational, losing only to Wisconsin, but taking down a limited Michigan State team in the process.

The Michigan State men are by no means a shoo-in to qualify for the national meet. We also aren't 100% confident that they ran an "A" lineup at the Griak Invitational and if they didn't, then CBU wouldn't be able to score a Kolas point off of them (although we would guess that they did score that point).

If the Spartans do qualify for the national meet, then we can assume that the CBU Lancers will have at least one Kolas point. That's nice for September, but Saturday will almost certainly be their last chance to earn Kolas points before the West Regional XC Championships.

Both the Bulldogs and the Lancers have enough potential firepower to negate the low-stick scoring of the Montana State men. Butler's Barry Keane and Jesse Hamlin were ahead of the Bobcats' entire lineup at Joe Piane while CBU's Said Mechaal and Florian Le Pallec were top-10 finishers at the Griak Invitational.

However, the depth on each of these teams needs to come through in a major way if they are going to a) upset Montana State, b) defeat Arkansas, and/or c) take down each other.

With Oklahoma State not running a full lineup, defeating the Cowboys likely won't yield any Kolas points to whichever teams beat them. But with Arkansas almost certainly earning an automatic qualifying spot out of the South Central region this year, the Razorbacks could easily end up giving out a Kolas point to whoever beats them.

Of course, let's not act like this historic SEC powerhouse is just going to roll over. There is a very realistic possibility that Arkansas finishes runner-up on Saturday.

That wouldn't at all be a surprise.

To put it simply, a great performance on Saturday could dramatically bolster a team's chances of advancing to the national meet, specifically for Butler and California Baptist.

If they beat Arkansas, then they'll almost surely get one Kolas point. And if Butler beats California Baptist (or vice versa), then that could be a second Kolas point.

A poor effort doesn't necessarily take either of those teams out of the national qualifying picture, but it certainly makes a postseason push far more challenging.

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FINAL PREDICTIONS

Teams (Men)

1. Montana State Bobcats

2. California Baptist Lancers

3. Butler Bulldogs

4. Arkansas Razorbacks

5. Kansas Jayhawks

Individuals (Men)

1. Patrick Kiprop (Arkansas)

2. Barry Keane (Butler)

3. Ben Perrin (Montana State)

4. Duncan Hamilton (Montana State)

5. Nicholas Kiprotich (Liberty)

6. Florian Le Pallec (California Baptist)

7. Ryan Schoppe (Oklahoma State)

8. Said Mechaal (California Baptist)

9. Jesse Hamlin (Butler)

10. Chandler Gibbens (Kansas)

Teams (Women)

1. Oklahoma State Cowgirls

2. California Baptist Lancers

3. Liberty Flames

4. Wyoming Cowgirls

5. Washington State Cougars

Individuals (Women)

1. Natalie Cook (Oklahoma State)

2. Taylor Roe (Oklahoma State)

3. Calli Doan (Liberty)

4. Gabby Hentemann (Oklahoma State)

5. Camila Noe (Montana State)

6. Yasna Petrova (California Baptist)

7. Billah Jepkiuri (Oklahoma State)

8. Greta Karinauskaite (California Baptist)

9. Ava Gordon (Liberty)

10. Katelyn Mitchem (Wyoming)