First Thoughts: XC23 College & Open (2023 D1 Pre-Nationals)

It may not have been quite as crazy as the Nuttycombe Invitational, but Pre-Nationals was still plenty competitive this past Saturday and it gave us a handful of interesting results to dissect.

While we won't analyze every. single. team. like we did over the last few days for Nuttycombe, we will highlight a handful of the top squads in the men's and women's races. Give this a read and prepare for our upcoming rankings updates that are coming later this week!

---

Click here to see results

---

Women's Analysis

1. BYU Cougars (32 points)

Did I think that the BYU women were going to win this race? Yes, I definitely did. But did I think that they would win as easily as this? And did I expect them to produce the lineup order that they did? The answer to both of those questions is a definite, "no."

Carmen Alder may have had the single-biggest breakout race of the season so far, at least among women. The rising BYU talent took home a huge win by a comfortable 10-second margin over the runner-up finisher, Maddy Elmore (who also had an awesome performance in her own right).

Make no mistake, Alder has been plenty competitive in past seasons. To say that she came out of nowhere would be slightly misleading. Even so, this is someone who is primarily a miler and who doesn't have any long distance performances that come close to matching a victory at a race like this.

Behind her, Jenna Hutchins (5th) looked very solid. She may not be quite at her most potent form yet, but this was an encouraging step in the right direction. And with Alder running like she just did, the firepower on this team may be better than we initially thought.

Aubrey Frentheway (7th) could have maybe been a couple of spots better, although she was still great. Lexy Halladay-Lowry (9th) and Riley Chamberlain (10th) closed out the Cougars' scoring for a dominant win over teams that we were once VERY high on coming into this fall.

The best version of this team is very scary. Alder's emergence as a top-tier low-stick was not at all expected to happen. She changes the complexion of this team dramatically. If her, Hutchins, Frentheway and Halladay-Lowry run up their full potential, then this team may be an podium lock. Of course, they all need to run at their absolute best on the same day and Alder has to show that she can continue to race at that level consistently.

Regardless, it's hard to find many flaws in BYU's lineup right now.

2. Arkansas Razorbacks (90 points)

All things considered, I thought this was a really great outing for the Arkansas women. I'm not even sure that this was their best-possible effort which is what makes a fairly comfortable win over Virginia and Oregon that much more impressive.

Paityn Noe (3rd) is legit. We struggled to truly gauge how good she was at Chile Pepper XC Festival, but in her first collegiate race against legitimate competition, this former high school star proved that she is can be an instant-impact low-stick.

Inexperience in the postseason is still something to monitor, but I really liked what we've seen from her so far.

Sydney Thorvaldson (6th) was very solid, posting one of the better cross country results of her career. She's not quite the low-stick ace that we've thought she could be for the last few seasons (yet), but this Arkansas veteran took down a handful of great names. She's been trending in the right direction over the last few seasons.

Mia Cochran (15th) offered a fairly strong and stable third scorer for the Razorbacks, although I thought she could have even cracked the top-10. Laura Taborda (27th) largely matched expectations and Mary Ellen Eudaly (40th) kept the team's backend scoring in check, at least compared to other top programs in the field.

The ongoing absence of Isabel Van Camp is far from ideal. She is an outstanding low-stick scorer when she's at her best, but she hasn't raced since mid-January, per TFRRS.

On the off chance that she returns to this team this fall, even at a lower level of fitness, Van Camp could theoretically cut a handful of points off of the Razorbacks' score. And in that scenario, this team is likely contending for a top-10 ranking.

But in the meantime, Noe, Thorvaldson and Cochran seem like a strong and sturdy top-three while their backend runners have done enough to get by. Arkansas doesn't have much margin for error, but they are very much in the conversation to finish runner-up at the SEC XC Championships behind the heavy-favorites, Florida Gators.

3. Virginia Cavaliers (104 points)

I'm a bit conflicted about this result for the Virginia women. In some aspects, they were great and leave me excited about their future. But in other ways, I felt a bit underwhelmed and left wondering where the rest of their higher-end scoring is.

Margot Appleton (4th) was great as always, although I did think that she would be able to win this race. In fact, you could argue that she was the individual title favorite, especially since she was racing on her home course. Regardless, she did her job as a top-tier low-stick.

Anna Workman (11th) and Jenny Schilling (13th) were roughly on par with what I expected. They ran well and offered great scoring value to the middle portion of this lineup. Workman looks like a far more consistent runner this year and Schilling has been shockingly great despite her significant lack of experience at this level of racing.

However, with a drop-off to their final two scorers, Sophie Atkinson (31st) and Caroline Timm (46th), it was easy to see why the Cavaliers weren't quite able to hang on to Arkansas.

Luckily, there is still good news for the women of Charlottesville.

I'm fairly confident that Atkinson can be better in the future. The team has also been without Camryn Menninger, Esther Seeland and Tatum David this fall. Each of those women could be major contributors for the Virginia women if they were to toe the line.

The ongoing uncertainty about those women racing this season leaves the Cavaliers with some unknown upside if they do race. Of course, it's also very possible that they simply wont be racing this fall at all.

4. Oregon Ducks (117 points)

I'll be honest, trying to analyze this team feels impossible. The Oregon women did compete at the Bill Dellinger Invitational, but TSR didn't put much stock into that meet. That's why Saturday seemed like the perfect opportunity to truly gauge just how good the Ducks are.

Unfortunately, I'm still not sure that we made any progress in that area.

Maddy Elmore (2nd) was fantastic. She was obviously incredible over 1500 meters this past spring, but to then translate her fitness to the grass and be a top-tier low-stick was huge. Much like Alder, I still need to see her do it again, but her stock has shot up through the roof.

Izzy Thornton-Bott (14th) certainly wasn't bad, but I think it's fair to say that we were expecting her to be in the top-10 at the very least. And truthfully, I would have predicted her to place 5th. Even so, she still provided solid scoring at Oregon's second spot.

Behind her, the trio of Klaudia Kazimierska, Katie Clute and Ella Nelson went 26-38-39, respectively, to close out the Ducks' scoring contingent. And while that was a fairly stable backend compared to their competitors, the need for more upfront scoring was apparent.

However, the problem with analyzing this team is that Victoria Patterson, Lily Cridge, Kate Peters, Harper McClain and Emilie Girard didn't race on Saturday. In fact, none of those women have raced at all this season!

Coming into the season, we had heard that there was "optimism" when it came to Patterson's eligibility to race this fall after transferring from Columbia. Her status is still unclear to TSR, but she is just one of many women who could make this team far better in the postseason.

The PAC-12 XC Championships will likely be the race that betters shows us what kind of personnel will be fielded for the Ducks going forward. But until then, we'll be struggling to figure out how to rank this team and where to place them in our future predictions.

5. Tennessee Volunteers (135 points)

Slowly but surely, the Tennessee women are getting better and better...

We should be careful not to overreact to the Volunteers' performance from Saturday, but let's also recognize that they were only 18 points behind an Oregon squad that was listed in the top-10 of our preseason rankings.

Ashley Jones (12th), the transfer from High Point, turned out to be a way better pickup than we were expecting. She was fringe low-stick in this race. And when paired with rookie Jillian Candelino (18th), who smashed expectations, the Tennessee women ended up having a surprisingly great scoring presence at the front of their lineup.

The more exciting part is that Kayla Gholar (29th) can likely be better, Rachel Sutliff (34th) was roughly just as good as the fourth scorers for other teams and freshman Jessie Secor (43rd) ran a great race considering her youth and inexperience.

This is still a very young team that needs to add a few more weapons. That said, this was one of the more complete top-five's that I've seen from the Lady Vols in quite some time.

6. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (218 points)

Coming into this season, I was pretty down on the Wake Forest women. Sure, they added a strong recruit and a few veteran transfers, but this team was severely lacking scoring throughout the fall of 2022.

And while the Demon Deacons still have a long way to go, I can't help but be encouraged by what I've seen from them so far -- both at Paul Short and now at Pre-Nationals.

On Saturday, freshman standout Brooke Wilson continued to emerge as a great lead scorer for her squad. A 20th place finish this past weekend, alongside a 7th place finish at Paul Short, leaves us very optimistic about her future in the NCAA.

Lydia Van Dijk, the former Ole Miss runner, has been a great complement to Wilson this season, giving Wake Forest some great value at the top of their lineup.

Caroline Garrett (41st), Madeline Rehm (61st) and Leigh Walters (74th) closed out the team's top-five with scoring gaps that will need to improved upon in the future. Even so, I believe that this entire backend trio can be better moving forward. And frankly, this is far greater progress than I expected to see from Wake Forest this season.

They're not going to blow you away this fall, but Coach Ashley Bastron may have something promising in the works...

Quick Hits (names who we didn't already mention)

• Villanova's Sadie Sigfstead (9th) was really strong. She was absent in the fall of 2022 after an encouraging 2021 fall campaign. But after a year of development, Sigfstead looks like she's even better.

• Penn's Maeve Stiles didn't race for the Quakers. If she had, and theoretically placed 10th overall, then this Ivy League team would have scored 278 points (after displacement) and finished 7th overall. Keep an eye on this team at the Ivy League XC Championships if she toes the line.

---

Men's Analysis

1. Arkansas Razorbacks (35 points)

I don't think it was crazy to predict that the Arkansas men were going to be contending for the win in this field. I liked a lot of the projected firepower on this team and I think a lot of these men have made solid progress over the last year.

That said, I didn't think that the Razorbacks would have a scoring group as potent as what they showed on Saturday. Oh, and I definitely didn't think that Ben Shearer was going to take down a top-heavy field of upper-echelon stars.

Ben Shearer's victory was beyond fantastic. He's been a respectable (and still young) talent, but this is unquestionably the best race that he's ever had. Honestly, it's not even close.

Obviously, it would be great if he validates that performance at the SEC XC Championships. That's a fairly common request that we have after we see breakout efforts like his. Even so, I'm in complete awe. If Shearer is going to run that well throughout the rest of the season, then the Razorbacks are going to be a MAJOR problem.

I say that because Kirami Yego unsurprisingly finished 3rd while Patrick Kiprop (5th) also delivered on expectations. However, Jacob McLeod placing 6th essentially shut the door on any team having a chance to beat the Razorbacks. With Myles Richter closing out the scoring in 20th place, and Lexington Hilton finishing 26th overall, Arkansas looked like they were on a completely different level.

If Hilton, who is a 7:48 (3k) runner, produces the finishes that we think he's capable of, then this Fayetteville-based program looks borderline podium worthy in a best-case scenario. Yes, that would involve a lot of things going right, and their future competition will be noticeably more challenging, but I can't say enough good things about this team right now.

2. Tennessee Volunteers (89 points)

I don't know exactly what I was expecting to see from Tennessee, but I think this was pretty on par with where we thought this team was at.

Yaseen Abdalla (2nd) had an excellent race, emerging as the only runner who could realistically give chase to Shearer. However, seeing rookie Dean Casey produce a huge 7th place finish was super important for a team that needed more firepower behind Abdalla.

Meanwhile, Gabriel Sanchez (11th) did exactly what he was recruited to do -- offer great scoring value in the middle of Tennessee's lineup and inch closer to a lead scoring role.

The backend of this lineup still needs some refinement, but Jacob Lewis (29th) and Eli Nahom (41st) were fairly respectable for what the Volunteers needed out of them. Luckily, there is a large handful of varsity lineup options on this Tennessee roster who could potentially be utilized in the postseason.

Overall, I'm not too surprised about the men from Knoxville. Their top scoring trio was definitely on the better end of my expectations for them. I'll be interested to see how they close out their scoring at the SEC XC Championships, but for the most part, Saturday was a success.

3. Virginia Cavaliers (112 points)

It's very possible that our preseason expectations for the Virginia men were too aggressive. Even so, it feels like this team is still trying to have their best race. They had a handful of strong performances from certain individuals on Saturday, but the Cavaliers have yet to come together to create an effective top-five scoring group.

Gary Martin (10th) continues to be the lead name for this team. He had a great race, although his result wasn't too surprising after seeing what he did at the Virginia Invitational. You also have to give credit to Will Anthony (29th), another younger distance talent who continues to quietly improve. When next to Martin, he gave the Cavaliers a really solid 1-2 punch.

Nathan Mountain (22nd) could've maybe been a bit better, but that was still a decent day for him. His steeplechase success suggests that he should have been closer to the top-15 (or even the top-10), but his race certainly wasn't poor.

From there, things were a bit less exciting. Jack Eliason (31st) had a decent race, Jacob Hunter (37th) was fairly solid and Yasin Sado (39th) offered good scoring insurance relative to UVA's fifth runner. Other guys like Justin Wachtel and Wes Porter largely weren't factors for Virginia and Conor Murphy produced a DNF result.

This team can definitely be better moving forward. They have a handful of great pieces who are all capable of offering great scoring value. Martin and Anthony have emerged as fringe low-sticks and certain guys have stepped up to limit excessive point scoring.

The Cavaliers will need to close gaps between the two halves of their lineup, and maybe find a bit more firepower, but there are a handful of avenues for them to reach their full potential in the postseason.

4. Montana State Bobcats (137 points)

Really nice rebound race for the Montana State men. Coming within 25 points of a talented Virginia team has to give this group some confidence after a highly underwhelming racing at the Joe Piane Invitational.

This time, the Bobcats' lead scorers were far more potent as Matthew Richtman (12th), Owen Smith (14th) and Ben Perrin (16th) gave their team an excellent 1-2-3 combination. From there, Montana State did experience some significant gaps, but Rob McManus (48th) and Sam Ells (52nd) kept things relatively in check.

I am still a firm believer that McManus can be closer to the top-three of Montana State's lineup. He was great on the track earlier this year and has enough experience to build on that success. Look for him to cut down on the Bobcats' team score in the postseason.

5. Purdue Boilermakers (215 points)

Solid day for Purdue!

Douglas Buckeridge (25th) continued to build on his promising Louisville XC Classic performance and Nathan Walker (28th) has remained as a key focal point of this lineup. Caleb Williams (43rd) had a quietly great race and based on who they were up against, both Kiefer Bell (62nd) and Jason Polydoris (65th) had fairly respectable efforts.

In the end, the Boilermakers had a solid day. They had a fairly complete top-five and that was ultimately what allowed them to crack the top-five of the team standings. Watch out for Purdue in 2024 and more specifically, 2025. They have a very young group.

6. Wyoming Cowboys (220 points)

The Wyoming men were actually better than Purude through 80% of their lineup. With a top-four scoring group of Jacob White (18th), Ryker Holtzen (23rd), Mason Norman (31st) and Gus McIntyre (43rd), the Cowboys looked awesome.

However, their fifth runner didn't cross the line until 111th place, and that's ultimately why Wyoming fell to 6th place. Even so, I really liked how this team ran in Charlottesville. In a highly volatile Mountain West conference that just had a lot of programs struggle at Nuttycombe, don't be surprised if the Cowboys upset a few teams a couple of weeks from now.

Quick Hits (names who we didn't already mention)

• Not too surprising to see Chandler Gibbens (Kansas) snag a 4th place finish in this field. It seems fair to suggest that his win at Joe Piane was more impressive than what he produced on Saturday, but at the very least, he validated his fitness this past weekend.

• Really underrated efforts from Dylan Throop (7th) and Nicholas Russell (9th). Both of those men have posted some strong performances over 5000 meters and 10,000 meters, so their top-10 finishes probably shouldn't be as surprising as they may feel.