First Thoughts: Michaela Rose Goes Sub-2:00 (800) & Mercy Chelangat Goes Sub-32:00 (10k)

The weekend of the Bryan Clay Invitational often comes with a large plethora of elite performances. And as a result, there is A LOT for us to analyze.

Because these results are so wildly deep, we'll likely only cover the results that I would deem to be the most impactful on the entire NCAA landscape.

So let's begin...

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Women's 10,000 Meters

The race itself, like most of these distance battles, was pretty straightforward. The pacer for this field (Jenna Hutchins) took the top women through at an honest tempo. And when looking back at the women who made up the top pack, there were actually zero surprises.

But about a third into the race, the Alabama duo of Mercy Chelangat and Hilda Olemomoi took control of the lead. Not so long after, they were flanked by New Mexico's Amelia Mazza-Downie. And in retrospect, this was probably the least surprising in-race development that we saw over the last few days.

Throughout the rest of the race, the Alabama duo exchanged lead changes while their Lobo counterpart was simply trying to do enough to keep pace. But eventually, it was Chelangat pulling away, aiming to get separation and looking to make a statement with an all-time mark.

Sure enough, she did just that, recording a big-time 10k PR of 31:55 and becoming the ninth collegiate woman in NCAA history to run under the 32-minute barrier. She now sits at NCAA #7 all-time in the event.

Behind her, we saw Olemomoi cross the line in a mark of 32:05 while Mazza-Downie held strong for an excellent 10k PR of 32:07. After those three women, there was a clear drop-off to the next-best group, but Cailie Logue (Iowa State) and Aubrey Frentheway (BYU) each held their own, running 32:33 and 32:34, respectively.

Yes, I'll admit, these overall times were a bit slower than I expected them to be...but not by much. And truthfully, when you look at the overall results of this race, it was VERY unsurprising. In fact, I perfectly predicted the top-four women in this race and mentioned how Frentheway was a threat for a top-five finish (but I instead chose Brianna Robles).

I'm going to keep this section of our analysis pretty brief, mainly because I don't think we really learned a whole lot. Chelangat is still the national title contender that she was last year, Olemomoi looks like she can (eventually) be an all-time threat at this distance, Mazza-Downie is arguably at her best over 10k and everyone else is just really darn good!

I am not at all ready to say who my national title favorite in the 10k is this year, but I can tell you that my respect for Chelangat to be in that conversation has only been strengthened after her most recent effort.

And frankly, her experience, consistency, favoritism towards the longer events and proven ability to win NCAA gold is going to be really hard to ignore once we reach the postseason.

Men's 10,000 Meters

I know, it may seem like I'm copping out on analysis in these 10k races, but much like the women's battle, there really weren't any surprising developments.

Throughout the men's invitational 10k, we saw Tennessee megastar Dylan Jacobs battle with Casey Clinger and an army of BYU men. That contingent traded off lead duties throughout most of the race and worked together in the final moments to track down Butler's Barry Keane before battling for the win at the end.

With 200 meters to go, Jacobs got the edge on Clinger and held off his BYU foe on the final straightaway, giving the Volunteer star the win in rainy and wet conditions. Both of these distance juggernauts ended up running 28:01 for the 10k distance.

Truthfully, I can't offer any original analysis about those two men no matter how much I want to -- we simply didn't learn anything new about Jacobs or Clinger. Both of these guys can definitely run faster (although 28:01 for 10k is no joke) and how they executed their race plans on Thursday night is exactly what I expected.

Yes, I thought they would run faster, but given the weather and how the race played out, I'm not sure I can look too heavily into those final marks.

But everyone else? Oh boy, this is an interesting conversation.

Outside of Jacobs and Clinger, we saw SIX OTHER COLLEGIATE MEN run under 28:10 for 10,000 meters...that is just an unreal set of results. For perspective, since 2010, there have been numerous seasons where only one or two collegiate men ran under 28:10 in the 10k (during the regular season, NCAA Championship results aren't shown on the TFRRS leaderboard).

In fact, during the spring of 2019, not a single male runner ran under 28:10 (10k).

But on Thursday, we saw eight collegiate accomplish that feat in just one race.

The other six men to join Jacobs and Clinger under that mark were Creed Thompson (BYU), Cormac Dalton (Tulsa), Brandon Garnica (BYU), Barry Keane (Butler), Joey Nokes (BYU) and Antonio Lopez Segura (Virginia Tech).

Thompson is becoming an increasingly more dangerous runner. Taking down everyone except Jacobs and Clinger is a big deal. His consistency of high-level performances has never been better and he is rapidly improving. That's a huge result for someone who is still so young.

Dalton, meanwhile, is proving that his cross country fitness can effectively translate to the outdoor oval -- running 28:04 (10k) is a perfect complement to his 15th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships this past fall.

And Antonio Lopez Segura? Where did that come from?

The Virginia Tech ace has been a 3k/5k guy in my mind who can effectively drop down in distance to the mile / 1500 meters. But the Hokie star just took his 10k PR down from 28:53 to 28:09! In one race! I have no idea what that means for the rest of his season, but Lopez Segura was already one of the more dynamic distance talents on the east coast -- and now he has greater upper-tier firepower on his resume.

As for everyone else -- Garnica, Keane and Nokes -- they ran faster than we expected, but each of those men had the potential to be as competitive as they were. I'm not sure I would read too heavily into their results, but that doesn't make their efforts any less impressive.

Women's 3k Steeplechase

Good news: I perfectly predicted the top-five collegiate finishers in the women's steeplechase.

Bad news: I didn't have anyone in that top-five order correct.

In my eyes, Kayley DeLay (Washington) was the relatively clear favorite to win this race. The graduate transfer from Yale ran 9:25 in this event last spring (NCAA #3 all-time) to earn a silver medal at the 2022 NCAA Outdoor Championships.

And after a very strong winter campaign of racing unattached where she earned multiple personal bests, I felt like DeLay was primed to take down this field, maybe even comfortably.

For a while, that looked to be the case. DeLay made a convincing move to the front around two-and-a-half minutes in and gained a significant amount of separation. From that point, I figured the race was over.

But I was wrong.

Throughout the race, New Mexico steeplechase standout Elise Thorner and recent rising Butler star Angelina Ellis worked together to close down the gap on their Washington opponent. And with a little over two laps to go, it was clear that DeLay's lead/win was in jeopardy.

And before the last lap came, it was Thorner easily taking control and pulling away for the overall win in a time of 9:39. Meanwhile, DeLay faded hard and Ellis got the best of her for the runner-up spot.

For Thorner, this is a massive win. Taking down DeLay and this field as convincingly as she did in a steeplechase time as fast as 9:39 should give her tremendous momentum for the rest of the season. Remember, this is a New Mexico ace who ran 9:31 in the steeplechase last spring and has actually made a few improvements during the winter months (albeit, fairly quiet improvements).

In a year where the steeplechase national title seems somewhat wide-open, I wouldn't totally dismiss Thorner from the conversation for NCAA gold.

As for Ellis, there may not be any woman in the NCAA with more momentum in the steeplechase than her. During the winter months, she ended her season by running 4:37 in the mile, then 9:03 over 3000 meters and then earning double gold at the BIG East Indoor Championships.

And after upsetting Duke's Emily Cole in the steeplechase at the Raleigh Relays, it feels like Ellis can do absolutely no wrong right now. Running 9:44 in this event at this point in the season is scary-good. The hot streak she is on is probably among the top-five in the NCAA right now so far this spring.

I know it's early, and I know this may seem reactionary, but at the rate that Ellis is improving, I don't know how I could leave her out of my All-American selections right now.

For DeLay, who ran 9:46 in the steeplechase to settle for 3rd place, I'm not going to look too deeply into this result. She made a bold and aggressive move that ultimately backfired. But given how accomplished she is and what she has done, I'm still more than happy to keep her in the national title conversation.

It would be far too impulsive to leave her out of that conversation.

California Baptist's Greta Karinauskaite (9:46) and BYU's Lexy Halladay-Lowry (9:49) each had very solid showings of their own. But given their recent success, I don't know if these results are entirely shocking. Like I said earlier, I had these women projected to finish in my top-five and run under 9:50 in the steeplechase anyway.

Men's 3k Steeplechase

If the 10k was the most predictable distance race on the women's side, then the steeplechase would have to take that honor on the men's side. And sincerely, I really don't know how much we need to talk about this race.

Miami (OH)'s Charles Harders was the one who kept this race honest, pushing the pace and gaining separation from the pack alongside BYU's Kenneth Rooks around halfway through this battle. But the RedHawk standout was simply trying to give himself a shot at a top finish as it was clear that Rooks had this race completely under control.

And sure enough, on the last lap, the BYU veteran unleashed a final lap that looked arguably even scarier than what we saw from him at the Stanford Invitational (which he also won). In the end, Rooks would secure a very comfortable win and new seasonal best of 8:31 in the steeplechase.

There really isn't anything new to say about Rooks. Whatever you've read about him previously is still the same. Honestly, we probably won't be able to get a true gauge of his fitness until he faces other upper-tier All-American-caliber stars.

As for the rest of this field, these results were pretty straightforward! I thought Adams State star Clement Duigou would play a bigger role, but he faded to a time of 8:56 in this event. I don't know if he had barrier trouble or just had an "off" day, but whatever the reason is, I would simply view this performance as a fluke for him.

Reece Smith, the other D2 megastar in this field and the defending D2 national champion in this event, secured runner-up honors in a time of 8:40 which is roughly on par with our expectations for him at this point in the season. For someone who ended his 2022 spring campaign with an 8:33 PR in this event, this is an encouraging start.

Utah Valley's Joel Mendez (8:41), UTEP's Victor Kipiego (8:41) and Miami (OH)'s Charles Harders (8:43) all ran very well. And yet, at the same time, I don't think think we can really pull many insights from these results.

However, seeing Pomona-Pitzer's Colin Kirkpatrick run 8:44 in the steeplechase this past weekend was thrilling. The D3 steeplechase record sits at 8:43 and with other star-caliber D3 talents like Christian Patzka and Christopher Collet showing similar levels of talent in this event, I would be stunned if that record was still standing at the end of this season.

Women's 5000 Meters

This was an outstanding race! Sure, we didn't get to see Taylor Roe race like the entries suggested, and Emily Venters was only pacing, but the final times were just as fast and there were a handful of really impactful takeaways.

After Venters stepped off the track, Utah Valley's Everlyn Kemboi took over control, pressing the pace and aiming to get as much separation from the field as possible -- and she did a very good job of that.

Kemboi looked fantastic. It was clear that the aerobic strength that she had shown during the 10k at the Stanford Invitational was clearly translating to a race that was just half the distance. And at the pace she was going, I struggled to believe that anyone was going to catch her.

But very quietly, Utah standout Simone Plourde began to chip away at the lead. The newest breakout star of the 2022-23 academic calendar, who recently finished 4th over 3000 meters at the NCAA Indoor Championships, channeled her aerobic strength that we saw during the fall and chased after Kemboi.

And going into the final lap, it looked like Plourde had a realistic shot of pulling off the come-from-behind win. Of course, Kemboi had one final gear within her after not being pushed for a significant portion of the race. That was what ultimately allowed her to hold off her fellow Mountain region rival en route to the win.

The final 5k times?

Everlyn Kemboi in 15:20.

Simone Plourde in 15:21.

I knew that Kemboi was talented and I knew that she thrived in the longer distances. We learned that last spring and this past fall. Her recent 32:03 mark for 10,000 meters at the Stanford Invitational only validated that theory even further.

But the Utah Valley star had entered this race with "only" a 15:48 (5k) PR. And while I certainly expected her to run a new PR, maybe even under 15:40, seeing her drop her 5k time all the way down to 15:20 is absurd!

For perspective, here are the women who have run 15:20 or faster for 5000 meters over the last 365 days...

• Katelyn Tuohy (NC State)

• Parker Valby (Florida)

• Hilda Olemomoi (Alabama)

• Mercy Chelangat (Alabama)

• Abby Nichols (Colorado)

• Amelia Mazza-Downie (New Mexico)

• Emily Venters (Utah)

• Evelyn Kemboi (Utah Valley)

To be entirely honest, I wasn't expecting Kemboi's name to be part of that group no matter how much I like and respect her talent. And now, with seasonal marks of 15:20 (5k) and 32:03 (10k), I think it's time to wonder if this distance star can legitimately contend for an All-American honor this spring...or maybe two.

As for Simone Plourde, the question for her coming into this season was whether or not she would pursue the 1500 meters or the 5000 meters on the championship stage. She had run 8:53 for 3000 meters on the indoor oval this past winter, meaning that the former BYU runner could either move up in distance to the 5k or move down to the 1500 meters.

Plourde has originally built her reputation at BYU as a miler, but when she transferred to Utah, she became a valuable cross country piece, looking like a top-50 talent, nationally, on the grass this past fall.

Naturally, you can understand why her event focus this spring was such a big topic.

I figured Plourde would run something plenty quick. I did, after all, predict her to run 15:26 for for this event in our meet preview. But 15:21? Well, unless she scares the 4:10 barrier over 1500 meters this season, which she absolutely could, it now seems somewhat obvious that Plourde will contest the 5k at the regional and national levels come May and June.

Also, let's be sure to remember, this was Plourde's first-ever collegiate 5k race! And she nearly timed her move perfectly to win! If she's able to run this well in her event debut, then what can she do when she has experience?

That's a scary thought to have if I'm someone toeing the line against Plourde soon...

For everyone else, I can't say that I'm exactly stunned. Stanford's Zofia Dudek (15:32), Colorado's Ella Baran (15:36) and Oregon State's Kaylee Mitchell (15:37) all had great performances, but these women were either due to run times like that or had run something along those lines before.

Men's 5000 Meters

This was a very straightforward race in terms of how it played out. Once the pacer stepped off, it was Stanford's Ky Robinson who controlled most of the lead pack. But after slowly working his way up to the lead, Washington's Brian Fay unleashed a wild kick over the last lap, pulling away from Adidas pro Sam Prakel in the final moments.

In the end, Fay won this 5k race in a time of 13:21, securing the victory with the same blistering finishing speed that he flashed at this exact meet last year when he shockingly caught Morgan Beadlescomb over the last stretch.

For Fay, this is an outstanding win. His indoor track season, time-wise, was excellent, but there were occasional moments where tactically, he could have been more effective or he could have better utilized his range/speed.

Luckily, Fay executed his Friday race plan to perfection. He timed his move beautifully and didn't overexert himself when he didn't need to. To take down the field he did, both collegiates and pros, should be a massively encouraging result for him.

Admittedly, we saw the same thing from Fay at this meet last year and he still didn't have the best outing on the national stage (although he was hardly bad). But when comparing this year to last year, he simply put together a smarter race last night.

Wisconsin's Bob Liking was the next-best collegiate in a 5k time of 13:27 while Stanford's Ky Robinson and Wisconsin's Jackson Sharp each settled for 13:29 marks of their own.

For Liking, I can't say I'm too surprised. He ran 13:35 for this distance last spring, but has clearly gotten so much better since then. The Badger star ran 28:00 for 10,000 meters the other weekend and is at the peak of his fitness. Given how he approached this 5k battle, I can't say I'm totally shocked by this result.

And truthfully, it's a somewhat similar story for Jackson Sharp. He's probably at his best over 3000 meters, but a 13:29 (5k) PR for him was plenty realistic and not much of a surprise.

However, it's Robinson who leaves me scratching my head. The Aussie star led this race for a good portion of time and was coming off of a 10k race from two weeks ago where he went sub-28:00, looking very strong while doing so.

The Stanford standout had a bit of an underwhelming outing at the NCAA Indoor Championships, but that was seemingly resolved on his home track earlier this month -- or so we thought.

At this point, I don't know what to think about Robinson moving forward. He's obviously insanely talented and his latest effort wasn't even that bad! But it's also fair to say that this Cardinal star is still working to find his edge that he flexed back in December and January.

But in fairness to Robinson, there were a handful of other collegiates in this race who weren't at their best. I was also expecting more from Alabama's Victor Kiprop (13:40) and Tennessee's Yaseen Abdalla (13:44), so it may be best to not use this one race as the main analytical point of someone's seasonal resume right now.

Women's 800 Meters

I'm running a bit low on time, so I'm going to simply highlight the top collegiate women in this field and offer a few quick notes before we wrap this up...

Michaela Rose (LSU) - 1:59 (H1)

Is a time of 1:59 over 800 meters absurdly fast? Yes. But for someone like Michaela Rosa, should this be viewed as a surprise? No, I don't think so. This LSU megastar was in an insanely loaded field, has been flirting with the two-minute barrier for a while now and has been wildly consistent. Plus, I even predicted her to run 1:59 for 800 meters!

Regardless, Rose looks like she's just as much of a threat to Roisin Willis and Juliette Whittaker as she ever has been. Her raw fitness is unbelievable and if she can refine her tactics enough, then she can contend for NCAA gold.

Claire Seymour (BYU) - 2:00 (H1)

Gosh, I knew that Claire Seymour was on a hot streak right now, but this was probably the best-case scenario. The BYU veteran continues to pick up insanely valuable momentum and is now in the conversation to dip under the 2:00 for 800 meters this season. If you had told me that about Seymour at the beginning of February, I wouldn't have believed you.

Valery Tobias (Texas) - 2:00 (H1)

I've always viewed Valery Tobias as someone who is tactically sound, reliable, consistent and can run fast times in loaded fields. However, I always felt like she needed a top mark or a marquee race to truly help her stand out against women such as this.

But after running 2:00 on Friday, it's time to revisit how we view this multi-time All-American. Because if she is able to mix her consistency with her newfound fitness, then Tobias will be an incredibly lethal name to match up against.

Sarah Hendrick (Kennesaw State) - 2:01 (H1)

It was a flat-out solid race for Sarah Hendrick! This is exactly what I expected out of this Kennesaw State star. She put herself in contention, didn't play it too safe or too aggressive and simply followed the momentum of the field. Overall, this was a great effort for the veteran.

Katherine Mitchell (Boston College) - 2:02 (H2)

Gosh, I can't begin to tell you all how big of a fan I am of Katherine Mitchell. Seeing her run another 800 meter PR of 2:02, this time taking down a VERY good second heat, is really impressive. Tactically, she is one of the better half-milers in all of the NCAA and her fitness is only getting better.

Aurora Rynda (Michigan) - 2:02 (H2)

There's not too much to talk about here. Aurora Rynda is no stranger to running fast in loaded fields such as these. We know that she has exceptional fitness, but properly executing her race plans and implementing tactics on championship stages still needs work.

Lindsey Butler (Virginia Tech) - 2:02 (H1)

The 2022 indoor national champion over 800 meters started out at the very back of this field on Friday. In fact, she was way off of the main group for a good portion. While I don't entirely know what her game plan was, I like that she was able to rally and salvage a 2:02 mark over this distance.

Sure, Butler hasn't been at her best as of late, but historically, she's at her peak fitness once she races at the ACC Championships. I would keep that in mind once we reach the month of May and dive deeper into the postseason.

Men's 800 Meters

As mentioned above, I'm running a bit low on time, so I'm going to simply highlight the top collegiate men in this field and offer a few quick notes before we wrap this up...

Oussama El Bouchayby (Angelo State) - 1:45 (H1)

After running 1:45 for 800 meters at the Texas Relays, it's hard to be too surprised to see this Angelo State megastar produce a similar result. However, seeing him replicate that elite mark in a very different field validates his resume in a really unique way.

I think we have to have a serious discussion right now about whether or not El Bouchayby is the best half-miler in the NCAA right now, regardless of division. Because frankly, I don't know how you could say that he isn't.

Abdullahi Hassan (Wisconsin) - 1:46 (H1)

This was the race! This was exactly what I was hoping to see from Abdullahi Hassan this weekend. We knew he was insanely talented and that he had run 1:46 for 800 meters before. But up until Friday, this Wisconsin star had just never been able to get back to that point.

However, after a promising indoor track season where he began to raise his fitness, Hassan looks just as lethal as he ever was -- and that could mean that we have a new All-American contender on our hands.

Wes Ferguson (Nebraska-Kearney) - 1:46 (H2)

In my eyes, Wes Ferguson never needed to match the 1:45 mark over 800 meters that Oussama El Bouchayby produced in order to stay in the D2 national title conversation. Sure, the Angelo State star is still the national title favorite in that event, but Ferguson just as to be fast enough to contend with his newly-discovered foe in a championship setting. And with a 1:46 mark over this distance, Ferguson has seemingly done just that.

Aidan McCarthy (Cal Poly) - 1:47 (H4)

I've always really liked Aidan McCarthy. I've thought that his range was sneaky-good and that he was making really promising improvements. But seeing him run 1:47 for 800 meters wasn't on my bingo card -- especially not out of the fourth heat!

Now, all eyes will be on this Cal Poly ace to see how he builds from here. And under the direction of middle distance coach Ryan Vanhoy, I wouldn't say that a 1:46 (800) PR is out of the conversation.

Jason Gomez (Iowa State) - 1:47 (H1)

Sebastian Fernandez (BYU) - 1:47 (H2)

Sam Ellis (Washington) - 1:47 (H1)

I'm lumping these three men together because my message for them is largely the same. Each of these guys were flat-out solid on Friday. Gomez, Fernandez and Ellis are all capable of running 1:46 for 800 meters, making their latest results good, but unsurprising.