First Thoughts: Is Jasa A Title Contender Once Again? Plus, Fast 1500 & Steeple Marks

At this point, you know the drill. For today's Division Three analysis, we asked TSR contributor Brett Haffner to offer some insight on a handful of key D3 results from this past weekend by answering a few prompts.

Let's waste no time and jump right into it...

Men's Analysis

With Mike Jasa running 1:48.70 over the weekend and taking over the NCAA lead in the 800 meters, are you ready to call him the national title favorite once again?

Getting straight to the point, absolutely yes.

This is the race that we’ve been waiting to see from Jasa. It's a race that shows us how great this guy really is in the 800 meters in any setting. Not all elite half-milers can flex that trait.

Jasa got the job done at his home track in Dubuque, Iowa, as Loras College hosted the Dr. Tucker Invite this last weekend.

With a field of strong Iowan runners assembled, Jasa made easy work of his competition, beating teammate Carter Oberfoell by nearly a second which, to note, was a HUGE breakout race for Oberfoell.

In the back of my mind, it wasn’t a matter of IFJasa would throw down this kind of performance, but rather a matter of WHEN he would throw it down.

Jasa has admittedly been a bit on the quieter side (relative to expectations) since the indoor national meet. However, his past history of success, proven dominance and ability to post an elite mark as we near the postseason makes him the title favorite once again in my mind.

This result should also give Jasa (and Oberfoell) some terrific momentum heading into the ARC Championships as well as the outdoor national meet.

After earning a huge statement win in the 1500 meters in a time of 3:47 over a loaded field, what percent chance would you give Ryan Harvey to be an All-American this spring?

I’d give Harvey an 80% chance.

After qualifying for the 2021 outdoor national meet in this event as a freshman and missing out on the finals, it’s clear that Harvey is at a completely different level just one year later.

Although he’s currently only ranked at NCAA #10 on the D3 national leaderboard in this event, Harvey has displayed great tactical awareness in 2022, highlighted by his numerous individual wins, as well as his strong performances at the indoor national meet where he earned a clutch 4th place All-American finish.

Having 1:52 speed in the 800 meters doesn't hurt, either...

Harvey's experience and continued growth sets him up well to earn another All-American honor in the 1500 meters. He has the middle distance speed and tactical acumen to pair with his quietly strong 3k strength as well.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see him competing near the front of the championship 1500 meter final in a few weeks. He is the full package in nearly every aspect of racing.

Sam Verkerke of UW-Eau Claire came out of nowhere to run 3:46 in the 1500 meters, earning a key win over Steven Potter and other national qualifiers. What does this result say about Verkerke heading into the postseason?

First off, who even is Sam Verkerke?

After running marks of 1:57 in the 800 meters and 4:24 in the mile during the indoor track season, he has soared to a completely different level this spring.

Starting off the outdoor track season with a 3:54 mark in the 1500 meters was an impressive jump from a 4:24 mile. Still, as strong as that result was, it didn't necessarily make him a nationally competitive name or register on our Richter scale of big distance performances.

However, at the WIAC Championships this past weekend, Verkerke made another huge jump to run 3:46. That kind of improvement is simply unheard of. Verkerke now sits at NCAA #3 in the D3 1500 meters behind only Aidan Ryan and Bennett Booth-Genthe.

On top of that, the UW-Eau Claire ace has been securing key wins against quality WIAC competition week-in and week-out, demonstrating tactical prowess in both the 800 meters and the 1500 meters.

In the span of this current outdoor season, Verkerke has elevated himself from a largely unheard of talent to one of the best candidates in the country who could earn an All-American honor in a few weeks.

Did the 5k results you saw from Freiburger (14:10) and Monaghan (14:12) change how you view them going into the rest of this season?

For Colin Monaghan, this is more of a validation of his fitness. I think we already kew that he was a talented long distance standout.

The Puget Sound runner has had a LONG racing season, having thrown down 29:52 over 10,000 meters back in the first week of March. He has been consistently racing since then.

As a qualifier for last year’s outdoor national meet in the 10,000 meters, this was a sizable PR in the 5000 meters for Monaghan and it should stick as a national qualifying mark in this event.

Barring a slew of sub-29:52 performances in the 10k, Monaghan is going to have the flexibility to choose one, or both, of the long distance events heading into the outdoor national meet.

But ultimately, a mark of 14:12, while impressive and encouraging, seems to be in-line with expectations.

As for Joe Freiburger, this was a performance that finally feels like a good representation of his true distance prowess, at least compared to his recent streak of performances.

Having taken two attempts at the 10,000 meters, neither of which he has run sub-30:00 in, it feels like Freiburger has been just a little bit "off" this spring compared to previous years. However, in fairness to him, trying to keep up with the absurd growth of the NCAA as a whole is a challenge in its own right.

Still, if Freiburger doesn’t chase another 10k, he’ll be locked into the 5000 meters as his only event at the outdoor national meet this year.

However, with a strong 5k performance now under his belt, you’d ought to wonder if maybe only running this event at the national meet could be Freiburger’s best avenue towards a high All-American finish.

We’ve been a little low on him this season, but running 14:10 inserts Freiburger right back into the conversation for a quality finish in the 5000 meters at the outdoor national meet and given his past experiences, it's hard to really doubt that possibility.

Following his 8:46 steeplechase performance, is it fair to say that Colin Kirkpatrick is the obvious title favorite in this event? Is Christian Patzka his biggest threat?

It’s getting very hard to argue against Kirkpatrick as the steeple title favorite at this juncture.

The guy is getting better and better with each steeplechase effort he puts in. Constant progression is not super uncommon for this event, but it is novel in this scenario because of how much faster Kirkpatrick getting.

His rate of progression should theoretically be plateauing, not speeding up!

It would be very reasonable to throw the possibility of a national record Kirkpatrick’s way. He is, after all, only three seconds away from the current record of 8:43. And for that reason, I don't know who else you could say is the clear national title favorite other than Kirkpatrick...even if you do believe that he's beatable.

And that's why I wouldn’t count out Christian Patzka or Christopher Collet. Both of those men are established national-caliber rivals who could somewhat realistically challenge Kirkpatrick for the national title.

Patzka threw down an 8:56 mark at the WIAC Championships this past weekend, while Collet is the reigning national runner-up in this event. Both men have strong abilities navigating the barrier-filled event and offer proven versatility in other events which is helpful.

The battle between these three at the outdoor national meet is going to be wild if Kirkpatrick doesn't just run away from the field early-on.

However, the real question is...how fast can they go?

Women's Analysis

Which women’s 800 meter performances caught your attention this past weekend. Did any of those results change the way you view the hierarchy of the event, nationally?

Zanzie Demco got herself a quality 800 meter mark of 2:10.38, putting her at NCAA #5 on the Division Three national leaderboard currently.

Race-in and race-out, she always seems to know how to operate around her competition over the final 400 meters, finding herself with plenty of individual wins this spring.

When you consider that she did the 1500/800 double at the 2021 outdoor national meet (earning All-American honors in both events), it wouldn’t surprise me to see her do it again.

However, with the 800 meter final being her fourth race of the weekend during last year's national meet, she ended up taking 6th in the finals, a result that wouldn't reach her full potential in 2022.

Demco is clearly much better this year than last year, meaning that come the outdoor national meet, she should not be counted out when it comes down to a final kick. I'm not necessarily saying that she'll beat Seeland, but the runner-up spot? Yes, I could absolutely see that happening for her.

But yet, in the end, Demco's most recent result doesn't really change our already-high opinion of her -- it just validates it.

As we move to our next name, an athlete who boasts some of the most impressive range in all of Division Three, Alyssa Pfadenhauer stepped up to the 800 meters at the Dr. Tucker Invite this past weekend, running 2:11.81 to put her at NCAA #12 in Division Three currently.

When you consider that she’s ranked at NCAA #22 in the 200 meters, NCAA #4 in the 400 meters, NCAA #1 in the 4x100 meter relay and NCAA #2 in the 4x400 meter relay, the chances of Pfadenhauer running this event at the outdoor national meet are a little slim, but not unrealistic.

Let's not forget, she was the driving force behind Loras’ success in the distance medley relay at the indoor national meet this past winter, splitting 2:09 on her 800 meter leg to hand off the baton to Kassie Parker in a fantastic position.

If she finds herself running the 800 meters at the national meet, then the sky is the limit for Pfadenhauer who has been exhibiting wildly impressive speed and racing prowess, strengths of hers which feel a bit underrated right now.

Cal Tech’s Margaret Trautner ran 4:27 for 1500 meters, beating D2 standout Natalia Novak in the process. How does this performance shape the way you will talk about and preview Trautner once we reach the national meet?

After the main favorites in this event, Esther Seeland and Ella Baran, I’d begin by putting Trautner in the conversation as the top "dark horse" title contender in this field along with Cassie Kearney.

Trautner has been on such an incredible tear this outdoor season, only getting better week by week and running incredibly fast marks, too.

After finishing 7th place in the mile at the indoor national meet and with the outdoor season that she’s had so far, I think that Trautner is ready to make a huge leap to a much higher-end placement at the NCAA Outdoor Championships.

Novak is a much better name than some people realize and she has become one of the better milers in D2 over the past year. Taking her down is no easy feat, so I view that as a highly favorite win for Trautner.

Seeland and/or Baran are still the 1500 meter title favorites, but Trautner is beginning to carve out her own tier within the women's D3 1500 meter field this spring. I think that's a fair narrative to say about her (and Kearney).

Following her 16:54 (5k) mark, how likely is it that Riley Harmon attempts the steeplechase/5k double on the national stage?

While that national meet double is very challenging, with two steeplechase races coming before the 5000 meter final, I’d like to think that Harmon could capitalize on running both events that weekend.

Either event would be a good opportunity for Harmon to challenge for an All-American mark, especially in the steeplechase where anything can happen in that championship final. However, more importantly, the steeplechase would come first and Harmon would be fresh for that race which is arguably her best event.

If both of her marks stick for national qualification, then I’d give Harmon a 75% chance to declare in both the steeplechase and 5000 meters. It makes sense and while it is certainly challenging, she doesn't have a lot to lose by entering both.

Select three recent 10k performances and offer one-sentence worth of analysis on them.

Ari Marks’ 34:16 mark was a fantastic debut for her in this event and her battle with Kassie Parker at the outdoor national meet will simply be electric.

Evie Miller showed us she can do anything, running 36:04 and finding herself nationally ranked in every single middle or long distance event.

Amy O’Sullivan dropping 71 seconds off of her 10k personal best, down to 35:58, is a good sign that she's peaking at the right time.

These five women all ran under 11 minutes in the 3000 meter steeplechase. Who are their D1 or D2 equivalents?

Emma Malooly (10:44) / Joyce Kimeli (Auburn): Both of these women are sneaky consistent with a history of All-American success in the steeplechase. They both favor the longer distances in non-steeple events.

Isabella Glenn (10:51) / Elise Thorner (New Mexico): There were some subtle signs that these two women could be promising steeple talents in their respective divisions this spring, but the jumps they have made this year have been far greater than we expected.

Jenna Allman (10:55) / Lexy Halladay (BYU): These two women are at their best in the 3k during the indoor track season, but they recently found their niche in the steeplechase where they sit five seconds under their respective marquee time barriers.

Alyssa Laughner (10:57) / Aneta Koneiczek (Oregon): Both women are solid all-around talents who can both thrive in the mile. However, they are arguably just as good, and likely better, in the steeplechase.

Emma Palumbo (10:59) / Natalie Graber (Grand Valley State): Two fairly young runners who can effectively compete in the mile and have shown promise in the steeplechase (Palumbo maybe more than Graber, relative to division).