First Thoughts: I Severely Underestimated Basically Everyone

"Best day for American distance running in years."

That was the text I received from my brother last night.

That text also came an hour before the men's mile race at the Washington Invite.

Friday night was one of the single-best days of distance running that I can remember. I'm sure there was a day like that last year where I said the same thing, but the sheer firepower and depth of what we saw in the span of a few hours...it was unlike anything I've ever seen before.

It's admittedly going to be hard to put into words some of the performances that we saw yesterday, but I'm going to give it a shot anyways. Let's begin...

Drew Bosley Breaks NCAA 3k Record via 7:36.42 Mark, Yaseen Abdalla Drops Strong 7:42 PR

I'm sorry.

Specifically to Drew Bosley.

I predicted that he would run 7:42 for 3000 meters on Friday night.

In retrospect, that was legitimately insulting.

When I published those predictions, I sat back, pondered it some more and thought, "Welp, I probably screwed that one up." And as it turns out, I did screw it up! By a lot!

But few people in the country thought that Drew Bosley was going to run under the NCAA 3000 meter record of 7:38.13 set by Yared Nuguse (your newest 3k American record holder) from last year...well, everyone except Sam Parsons.

The replies to that tweet make Friday's performance that much better.

Don't get me wrong, Drew Bosley was going into this race in the best shape of his life. He was 3rd at the NCAA XC Championships, was outstanding throughout the entirety of the fall months and ran 13:13 for 5000 meters at Boston University back in December.

If someone said that Bosley was going to potentially crack the 7:40 barrier, I'm not sure I would have argued. But 7:36? That's just so unbelievably fast. It would have been one thing if Bosley just barely broke the collegiate 3k record like Nuguse did last year. But the Northern Arizona superstar SMASHED the previous record by over a second and a half!

At this level, that's a massive margin.

I am someone who is under the belief that the 3000 meters requires far more speed and turnover than some people realize. I don't think it's any coincidence that predominant milers like Yared Nuguse and Mario Garcia Romo had so much success last night when moving up to the distance.

And when you look at Bosley's history of performances, he always struck me as an endurance-centric guy whose quickness in an event like the mile wasn't dramatically that much better (or that much worse) than some of the other top names in the country.

That's why I was a bit more conservative in my prediction.

But I have never been so happy to be wrong.

So what's next? What does this performance actually tell us?

Well, it's admittedly hard to know how a 7:36 collegiate record in January is going to translate to a championship stage in March. As we all saw last year, breaking a collegiate record (i.e. Nuguse) doesn't necessarily make you a national title lock, at least not in this era.

On the national stage, tactics and the ability to respond to certain moves are arguably just as important as being one of the five-most fit men in your respective field. And while Bosley undeniably has that latter part down, I think it's fair to ask if he'll be able to get separation in a race that is focused more on placement and not time.

Of course, I want to make sure that I am very clear about one thing: I am not doubting Bosley's ability to potentially/eventually win a national title. I'm not even saying that he can't run well in a tactical setting! All I'm saying is that Friday night's race will almost certainly not play out the same way on the national stage.

But that's a conversation to have a month and a half from now.

For now, let's understand that Drew Bosley just crushed an NCAA record that was set last year in an era of distance running that is unquestionably more competitive than any other time in collegiate history.

That's still hard to wrap my head around.

As for Yaseen Abdalla, seeing him run 7:42 for 3000 meters was pretty incredible. After a fantastic 2022 cross country season, I truly did believe that this Texas-turned-Tennessee athlete had the potential to run something along those lines this winter (maybe a second or two slower).

However, Abdalla's season debut in the 3000 meters at Boston University back in December was...bad. He never looked comfortable, he made poor tactical decisions, he wasted energy with unnecessary moves and he seemingly lacked explosiveness.

Sure, that performance was over a month and a half ago, but in a loaded pro field on Friday night where zero mistakes could be made, I had some reservations about how Abdalla would respond to that group.

Those concerns, of course, turned out to be negligible.

Abdalla put together a fantastic race. He hung tough and seemingly didn't get rattled when over half of the field gapped him and his chase pack. In a race as chaotically fast as what we saw last night, it would have been easy to falter.

But he didn't, and as a result, Abdalla now sits at NCAA #5 all-time in the event.

However, following a few performances from this weekend, he will get pushed back on that list by at least one spot (thanks to Anass Essayi).

The poise that this Tennessee talent was able to show in that scenario was really encouraging. This was definitely one of the better rebound performances that I've seen over the last year.

Anna Gibson Goes to Altitude & Shatters Expectations With a Converted 4:31 Mile Victory Over New Mexico Women

I was highly encouraged by Washington's Anna Gibson two weeks ago. On her home track, the Husky veteran ran a strong 4:35 mile time (emerging as the top collegiate) and later doubled back to run 2:05 over 800 meters.

She also ran a 9:08 (3k) PR at Boston University back in December.

Gibson was clearly off to a strong start this season. She was building momentum and looked like she could threaten her 2:04 (800) and 4:32 (mile) personal bests come late February.

Instead of racing on her home track this weekend, Gibson and the Washington coaching staff made an interesting decision. She actually ventured to the University of New Mexico (where this year's indoor national meet will be held) and ran a mile there against many of the Lobos' top women.

Sitting at over 4900 feet of elevation, I didn't expect Gibson to run under 4:40 in the mile. Or if she did, I certainly didn't think that she would dip too heavily under 4:39. She was, after all, moving up to unfamiliar territory (in terms of altitude).

Of course, as I've learned so far this weekend, I know absolutely nothing about this sport.

The Washington mile maestro ran an outstanding time of 4:37 unconverted, easily beating a very strong and established miler in Stefanie Parsons who ran 4:41. And after conversions, Gibson was a given a fantastic 4:31.00 mile mark.

With a few results still coming in, it's unclear where that 4:31 mile time will rank on the national leaderboard on Sunday, although at the time of publication, it looks like she will sit at NCAA #2 behind only Katelyn Tuohy.

I sincerely believe that this was one of the most important results of the weekend.

Maybe not THE most important, but it's up there.

Gibson was able to prove a handful of things on Friday night. She showed us that she's in the best shape of her life. She showed us that her early-season momentum was legitimate. She showed us that she could take down a competitive field of New Mexico women. She also showed us that she could move up to altitude and thrive on the same track that will host the indoor national meet.

Right now, Gibson is one of the last people who I would want to race against.

As for the Lobo women, you gotta give them a nod of respect. If Gibson didn't dominate this race, then we would be talking about Coach Joe Franklin's crew a whole lot more. After conversions, Stefanie Parsons ran 4:35 while both Elise Thorner and Samree Dishon ran 4:37 marks.

Parsons continues to improve ever-so-slightly. She'll likely need to be faster if she wants to advance to the indoor national meet (in the mile), but a lot of things have been going right for her ever since last spring.

Joe Waskom's 3:51 Mile Victory Headlines Washington's Historic Team Effort

This was the result (or set of results) that really messed with my head.

Seeing the mile times that the Washington men threw down in the same race has sincerely forced me to question if I actually know anything about this sport anymore.

I say that because on Friday night, the Huskies toed the line for a mile effort that will likely go down as the best collective team showing that the NCAA has ever seen in the event (depending on how you feel about the 2021 Oregon men).

Coming into this season, I wasn't necessarily critical of Joe Waskom, the reigning 1500 meter national champion from last spring. I had sung his praises in regards to his brilliant tactical acumen and mentioned how he fully deserved to win gold back in June.

But I also challenged Waskom a bit.

Despite being a national champion, his overall personal bests were simply not on the same level as prior NCAA title winners. His marks of 3:39 (1500), 3:56 (mile) and 8:35 (steeple) were/are really solid. However, in this day and age, those personal bests aren't nearly as potent or as impressive as they used to be.

So what did Waskom do?

Well, he simply got faster.

A lot faster.

After running a massive time of 2:18 for 1000 meters the other weekend, Waskom toed the line for a mile race that will go down as historic. The Washington megastar, pushed by the momentum of his teammates, dropped an other-worldly time of 3:51 in the mile.

Three. Fifty. One.

That result now puts Waskom at NCAA #3 all-time, but not officially since he ran on a 300 meter indoor track. But even if you include "all conditions bests", he still sits comfortably at NCAA #3 all-time behind Cooper Teare and Cole Hocker. He is only the third collegiate to ever run under 3:52 for the indoor mile.

After that performance, I don't know how I can look at anyone else and say that they are a bigger favorite for the mile national title than Waskom is right now. The Husky ace already proved that he's one of the best tacticians in the NCAA, but now he has some of the best raw fitness in the country, too.

I just have so much respect for this west coast star. He could have shrugged his shoulders after he won the national title last spring and thought, "Eh, how much better do I really need to get?" But instead, he has taken a monumental leap so large that I'm almost in disbelief.

But for as insane as that result was...that may not have been the most impressive aspect of this mile race.

I say that because seven other Washington men also ran under four minutes in that race -- and in most cases, they did so by a lot. Let me just type out these results. It'll be easier to visualize with a list...

1. Joe Waskom - 3:51

2. Brian Fay - 3:52

3. Nathan Green - 3:52

4. Kieran Lumb - 3:53

5. Sam Ellis (Unattached) - 3:53

6. Luke Houser - 3:55

7. Aaron Ahl - 3:57

8. Aidan Ryan - 3:59

Let's break down the rest of these sub-four results.

When it comes to Brian Fay, I am so wildly impressed, but I don't think I'm super surprised about this result for him. He actually split 3:52 on the anchor leg of Washington's DMR last year and has continued to thrive on the oval.

Would I have put money on Fay running 3:52 in the mile this year? No, probably not, but I never thought that this was out of the realm of possibility for him.

Nathan Green, however, is a different story.

I was very high on the Idaho native coming into this year. Despite being a freshman, Green was arguably Washington's most consistent 1500 meter runner from March to June of last year. Sure, maybe he wasn't the best, but he was probably the least variable.

Green ended his freshman campaign with a 3:37 personal best for 1500 meters and an All-American honor in the event as well.

After running 3:58 in the mile two weeks ago against a loaded field of Stanford men, I thought that a 3:55 or 3:56 time would be in the cards for this redshirt freshman this winter. I expected him to chip away at his mile PR as the season went on and then potentially sit on the fringes of national qualifying.

That, however, was a massive underestimation.

Green just ran 3:52 in the mile on Friday night, a dramatic jump that has left me struggling to find the right words to describe my thoughts.

How does that happen? How does a guy go from running 3:58 in the mile, being pushed the entire way, to running 3:52 in a similarly-loaded field just two weeks later? I don't remember the last time I've seen something like that.

And if Green is able to maintain some of the tactical developments that he made last spring and pair that with his newfound fitness...then what can he do in March? In theory, he is a frightening guy to see toeing the line next to you.

Kieran Lumb ran 3:53 in this race...and was the fourth-best guy on his own team.

I'm not gonna lie, I kinda laughed at the absurdity of typing that sentence.

But much like Fay, I'm not at all shocked by seeing Lumb record this kind of result. He ran 3:55 in the mile at the very start of last year (before getting injured) and is fresh off of a 7:43 (3k) mark from two weeks ago.

Sure, this a personal best for him, but I would have probably said that Lumb had a greater chance of running 3:53 in the mile this winter than not (as long as he was healthy).

Sam Ellis, the Princeton graduate transfer, doesn't have indoor track eligibility, but he's been racing unattached. After running 2:18 for 1000 meters the other week, I figured that he was probably just as fast as some of his teammates.

But even as someone who has been viewed as a predominant miler coming into this year, seeing Ellis run 3:53 is just ridiculous. I suppose this result is slightly less surprising in comparison to Green, but...man, I can't wait to see what he does in the spring.

Luke Houser running 3:55, Aaron Ahl running 3:57 and Aidan Ryan running 3:59 are all fantastic results, but also fairly unsurprising.

And yes, I know I predicted a lot of these Washington guys to be slower in this race, but it's pretty intimidating to put six or more guys from the same school all under four minutes in the same heat. I guess I learned my lesson there...

Kudos to the Huskies and Coach Andy Powell.

This isn't just a special group, it's a legendary group.

Tuohy Becomes First Collegiate Woman to Run Under 4:25 (Indoors) En Route to New NCAA Mile Record of 4:24.26, McCabe Runs 4:31 PR

I know that this race didn't happen on Friday and was contested earlier today (Saturday), but it felt wrong to not mention this result alongside Drew Bosley's collegiate record.

Katelyn Tuohy toed the line for the women's mile at the Armory just a few hours ago. She was facing numerous professional stars, including Alicia Monson, Whittni Morgan, Sintayehu Vissa and others.

Oh, and by the way, this was Tuohy's first indoor mile race of her collegiate career.

But the NC State phenom seemed unfazed by the overwhelming amount of talent around her. That's because Tuohy followed a blistering quick pace and was carried to an unbelievable mile time of 4:24.26 while remaining competitive in the latter stages of the race.

With that mark, she became the first collegiate woman to run under 4:25 for the indoor mile, effectively becoming the new NCAA record holder in the event. The former mile record of 4:25.91, set in 2009, was held by Jenny Simpson (née Barringer).

I'll admit it, I predicted Katelyn Tuohy to run 4:28 this weekend. In retrospect, that seems like such a silly guess, but you have to understand my perspective.

This was Tuohy's first-ever mile race as a collegiate. She has traditionally been viewed as a long distance runner. Her 1500 meter PR of 4:06 currently places her at NCAA #7 all-time. If she had run 4:28, then Tuohy would have been ranked anywhere from NCAA #7 all-time to NCAA #10 all-time in the mile, a comparable spot to her 1500 meter PR.

That's why I thought a 4:28 prediction seemed fair.

But I guess we can just add this to the list of races that I was completely and utterly wrong about (it was basically all of them).

With this kind of performance, I have to be the one who asks the question...what will Katelyn Tuohy pursue at the indoor national meet, event-wise? The 5k/3k double would be super unsurprising (in fact, it's probably expected), but could the mile actually make more sense?

I would argue that the women's mile field is going to be lighter this year, from a competition standpoint, than the 5k and/or 3k will be. So what if Tuohy were to run the DMR/mile/3k triple? Could that be in the cards for her?

I have no idea if Coach Laurie Henes would entertain that idea, or if the NC State women would really need Tuohy to be competitive in the DMR. But it would be hard to pick against the Wolfpack on the national stage if Tuohy is their anchor.

We should also note that West Virginia's Ceili McCabe was in this race. She posted a blistering mark of 4:31 which will, unfortunately, be overshadowed by Katelyn Tuohy's performance. Even so, this was a massive result that makes me feel even more confident about McCabe's potential chances of winning a 3k national title come March.

McCabe entered this race with a 4:38.99 mile PR from last year. Of course, she's brought her fitness to a new level since then and ran a huge time of 8:50 for 3000 meters back in December. She was almost guaranteed to run a new mile PR in this field.

But I wasn't entirely sure what McCabe's turnover and speed would look like in a race that was going to be extremely aggressive with the pacing. I figured she would run a PR, but I thought it would be closer to 4:33, not 4:31.

My confidence in McCabe being a factor on the national stage has grown quite a bit over the last two months. Her victory at Boston University in December was monumental, but this display of mile speed makes me feel good about how she could respond to moves in a tactical championship race.

Crayton Carrozza Runs 1:46 For 800 Meters to Take Over NCAA Lead En Route to Win at Boston University

Crayton Carrozza has been building his resume over the last couple of years.

He has emerged as one of the better mile/800 hybrid talents in the NCAA, he gained valuable national meet experience and his tactics have (most times) been top-notch.

Sure, he has had a few moments where I've asked, "What happened there?" But for the most part, Carrozza has been a lethal middle distance runner who was seemingly one more step away from truly being elite.

Well, after Friday night, he might be closer to that point than not.

The Longhorn veteran ran a blistering time of 1:46.28 for 800 meters yesterday, pulling away for the overall win with relative ease. Carrozza was able to outlast Northeastern's Reed Cherry who ran 1:47.84, a fantastic result for the rising Husky talent.

Carrozza now sits atop of the national leaderboard in the men's 800 meters just a week after Baylor Franklin ran 1:46 and took the top spot. But for as impressive as this victory was for the Lone Star product, I'm not entirely sure this will be an event that he seriously pursues.

The Texas men often go all-in for the DMR on the national stage. They are, after all, the defending national champions from last year. And if Carrozza is going to double at the NCAA Indoor Championships, then it makes much more sense for him to try the mile/DMR double rather than the 800/DMR double.

But with a new distance coach, Yaseen Abdalla now gone and Cole Lindhorst (apparently) injured, it's going to be a challenge for the Longhorns to go after a nationally competitive DMR time yet again. The men's mile also looks like it will be ridiculously hard to qualify for.

Carrozza was one of the more interesting names in 2022 as we attempted to figure out what he would run. I imagine that it will be more of the same in 2023.

We wrap up with Reed Cherry, the aforementioned Northeastern talent who just ran a massive 1:47 personal best. He has been really solid over the last year, running 1:48 numerous times. But now Cherry has put himself in the national qualifying conversation, although he may still need to improve by roughly another half-second.

That said, this guy is SUPER consistent. There's a good chance that he'll run 1:47 yet again this winter. It's just a matter of how far under 1:48 he'll actually go.