First Thoughts: Fisher, Hirschkind & Collet Thrive in Steeple, Smith Earns 5k Win Over Top Talents

Written by Brett Haffner, questions, additional analysis & edits by Garrett Zatlin

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We had D1 headlines, then D2 headlines and now it's time for Division Three! Below, we asked our in-house D3 distance running expert, Brett Haffner, a handful of questions about all of the top performances from around the NCAA this past weekend.

Here is what our guy had to say...

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WOMEN

After running 16:47 (5k) in mid-April, Maddie Hannan has just posted a time of 2:09.69 for 800 meters. Is it safe to say that she is the most versatile distance talent in D3? And does this mark improve her chances on the national stage during a potentially tactical race?

Maddie Hannan’s wicked run in the 800 meters certainly puts her up there for the most versatile distance talent in Division Three...and there’s more to come from her! Sure, you can argue that other women in D3 could be more versatile than her, but I don't think anyone has been as willing to show off their range as this UW-La Crosse star has.

Running 2:09 for 800 meters is no joke and that time will only make her a more dangerous force on the national stage. Heck, she has the NCAA #3 time and is only behind Emma Kelley and Aoife Dunne who are the premiere faces of that event!

We haven’t seen Hannan contest the 1500 meters since early April when she brought home a win in a mark of 4:34, but she’s clearly capable of running well under 4:30 in the right scenario. She did, after all, run 4:52 in the mile this past winter.

The question is, however, how far under 4:30 (1500) could she go?

But for as strong as this 800 meter time is, there's still a good chance that the women's 1500 meter finals at the outdoor national meet will be fast, just like it was at the NCAA Indoor Championships. And if that's the case, then Hannan's improved speed will help, but it will only play so much of a role.

Emma Kelley just ran 4:29 for 1500 meters. What are the chances that she does the 800/1500 double at the NCAA Outdoor Championships like Esther Seeland did last year?

I’d say the chances are actually pretty likely, probably somewhere around 65%.

Now, the important thing to consider with Kelley is her 400 meter speed which will likely be employed on the Bears’ 4x400 meter relay. That squad is currently sitting at NCAA #7 on the national leaderboard and will have an opportunity to score some team points.

This double, or even triple, will undoubtedly be incredibly difficult.

However, when you consider how good Kelley is, having run 2:06 in the 800 meters and 4:29 in the 1500 meters this spring (winning both races by good margins), there's seemingly more in the tank from her, making this combination of events doable.

Is she quite as good as Seeland was? No, maybe not yet, but it's at least doable for someone of her caliber. And if team points are the priority, then Kelley will have an even greater incentive to try this double at the national meet come the end of the month.

Lexi Brown has now run 4:31 (1500) and 16:39 (5k) this spring. Which event should she contest on the national stage and why?

Well, when you consider that Lexi Brown is sitting at NCAA #7 on the national leaderboard in both of these events, there isn’t an easy answer for this one!

Nevertheless, I think that she should contest the 1500 meters at the outdoor national meet.

Her experience from this year’s indoor national meet in the mile speaks volumes. On that stage, Brown earned a PR in both the prelims and the finals, ultimately taking 4th place to earn her first All-American honor on the track.

Putting together that string of performances in her first national meet appearance on the track is a very impressive feat and she also displayed some strong closing speed, as well.

And sure, she could enter both events at the NCAA Outdoor Championships. Brown is a great 5k runner and doubling back is possible/doable (albeit, super challenging).

Even so, a lot of things point towards Brown having great success by focusing her efforts over 1500 meters at the outdoor national meet. Her skillset should allow her to thrive in a handful of different race scenarios. And as we saw back in March, her improved aerobic fitness could allow her to thrive with another aggressively-paced race in the finals.

Fiona Smith just ran a monster 5k time of 16:05 to defeat Ana Tucker (16:10) and Clara Mayfield (16:28) at the Drake Relays. What did we learn from this race, if anything?

Truthfully, not a ton! But I actually think that the most impactful result from this elite group of three runners was Ana Tucker’s performance of 16:10 (5k).

That was only her third race of this outdoor track season, but she has been firing on all cylinders each time that she has toed the line during the spring months.

More so, this 5k result was a monumental 19-second PR for Tucker. And yeah, that was already impressive, but finishing only five seconds behind Smith was even more impactful, especially when you consider that Smith ran a significant personal best of her own!

Tucker is currently still leading Division Three in the 1500 meters after running 4:25 earlier this spring. And as the outdoor national meet begins to rapidly approach us, it feels like the Hope College star is growing as a lethal contender to win the national title in that event.

This Drake Relays result only accentuates Tucker's already-great range as she’s becoming quite adept from the 1500 meters all the way up to the 10k. Of course, how you think that range/versatility helps her in other events could influence what race you think she'll choose for the outdoor national meet.

Aubrie Fisher and Rachel Hirschkind ran a pair of 10:22 marks in the steeplechase at the Drake Relays and the Penn Relays, respectively. Elsewhere, Molly Fitzgibbons ran 10:43 in the same event. How many realistic national title contenders do you believe are in the women's steeplechase this year?

I wont complicate this question, it's just two women -- Aubrie Fisher and Rachel Hirschkind.

In terms of experience, Molly Fitzgibbons is certainly on par with Fisher and Hirschkind, having placed 3rd in last year’s steeplechase final at the outdoor national meet. And despite what her latest result was, this Williams standout has already run 10:30 for this discipline (in the spring of 2022).

However, both Fisher and Hirschkind have been on a roll in the flat events with Hirschkind in particular destroying her personal bests in both the 1500 meters and the 5000 meters.

Fisher, meanwhile, has been running just "alright" during this outdoor track season, barely missing her steeplechase PR of 10:20 and coming close to her personal bests in the 1500 meters and the 5000 meters, as well.

And if 10:22 is just “alright” for Fisher, then what will we see from her when she’s “great”?

Well, the idea of "great" could mean that she'll run a whole lot faster than 10:22.

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MEN

The Washington U. duo of Will Houser and Arthur Santoro each ran 1:50 for 800 meters this past weekend. What is their ceiling in this event come the end of the month?

It’s a great start for these two men to already have run 1:50 (800) at this point in the season.

And I say "start" because the Bears are well known for their postseason success and consistency. So to think that this could be the starting point of something even greater for them is incredibly exciting to think about.

Houser, in fact, actually ran 1:49 for 800 meters last year at the St. Francis Fighting Chance Invite and then proceeded to place 7th overall at the outdoor national meet in that event. And with a month to go, the idea that he could return to the 1:49 range seems incredibly realistic.

He may be a name to bring back into your All-American consideration if you've taken him out.

Santoro, meanwhile, ran his personal best this past weekend by also running 1:50 for 800 meters. With Houser by his side to assemble one of the better 800 meter duos in Division Three, I’d think it’s very reasonable to see both Santoro and Houser dip under the 1:50 mark at some point in the next month.

But I think the bigger question should be...could both of these men qualify for the 800 meter finals at the outdoor national meet? Houser has proven that he can do it, but Santoro is still incredibly new to this higher level of racing.

Of course, trying to balance inexperience and recent momentum is never an easy task during this time of the year.

Jamie Moreland and Steven Potter both posted 3:47 marks for 1500 meters this past weekend. Are there any takeaways that you can pull from their races?

Even with Jamie Moreland racing at the Penn Relays and Steven Potter racing at the Drake Relays, both results from these two men don't exactly tell us anything new. But at the very least, these are strong efforts which suggest that they are ready to go for the postseason.

Potter had been consistently running in the 3:49 to 3:50 (1500) range over the last month of racing, but it was good to see him run about the most even-split 3:47 mark you could ask for, splitting three-consecutive 60-second laps to finish his race.

We may not have witnessed the trademark kick that we know Potter is capable of, but to see him run 3:47 in the metric mile at this point in the season is a very encouraging result when you consider his consistent ability to peak at the national meet.

And in an 800 meter final that will likely be super fast (yet again) on the national stage, any additional strength and long distance prowess that Potter can build between now and then would be incredibly valuable.

Moreland, on the other hand, employed a really strong kick for his race, closing in 57 seconds for his final 400 meters after sitting farther back in his Penn Relays heat towards the start.

He may not have had the ending to his indoor track season that he had hoped for, but Moreland running 1:50 in the 800 meters a few weeks ago, along with his kick at the Penn Relays, has shown us that his closing speed is incredibly dangerous and not to be messed around with come the postseason.

Ethan Gregg ran 13:58 for 5000 meters at the Drake Relays. How much faster do you think he could have run?

At best, given the nature of that race, I’d say about five seconds. That would have put him at a 5k time of 13:53 which would have been right off of his personal best.

With such a strong field assembled for the Drake Relays 5k, it wasn’t a bad idea for Gregg to play things conservatively, which he did. He found himself sitting in 14th place for the majority of the race, then passed seven guys in the final mile to ultimately land in 7th.

Even though the time, on paper, might not have been an “A+” result for Gregg, I’d still call this a solid showing and a good display of tactical prowess against a talented field. It shouldn't change your opinion of him one way or another, but it's still a solid effort.

Following Chris Collet's 8:47 mark this past weekend, break down by percentage who is in contention to win the steeplechase national title.

• Colin Kirkpatrick - 25%

• Christian Patzka - 35%

• Christopher Collet - 35%

And for the record, I asked Garrett his thought on this, too. Here is what he said...

• Colin Kirkpatrick - 33%

• Christian Patzka - 34%

• Christopher Collet - 33%

Despite our percentages being fairly close, Garrett's thoughts have a slightly different, "it's a toss up" narrative when you look at his numbers. But I digress...

With all three of these guys having run between 8:44 to 8:47 in the steeplechase, it’s going to be a massive dogfight for the national title. And to say that anyone is the truly comfortable national title favorite in this event would be a hasty take.

Each of these men have also thrown down in the non-barrier events as well. Patzka and Collet have broken 14:00 over 5000 meters and Kirkpatrick has threw down an impressive mark of 3:46 for 1500 meters.

However, the reason why I would personally give Patzka and Collet the edge is due to their postseason success, both in the steeplechase and in the regular events, too. Collet is the reigning national champion in the steeplechase, Patzka is a newly-minted national champion for the indoor 5k and both men can close incredibly hard over the barriers.

We know that Kirkpatrick is an unbelievable talent in the steeplechase. His unfortunate fall during the steeplechase prelims at last year’s outdoor national meet may have prevented us from seeing his true potential, but he still rallied for an All-American finish.

In other words, my percentages aren't necessarily based around any concerns that I have about Kirkpatrick. It's more so that Patzka and Collet boast resumes that have proven to be slightly safer when making predictions.

Seeing these three men duke it out at this year’s outdoor national meet very well could be the most exciting championship final on the men’s side!