First Thoughts: 2023 Duke Invitational (1500 Meters)

Well that was...interesting.

Admittedly, the distance races at the Duke Invitational weren't nearly as fast as we expected them to be. That, however, is hardly the fault of anyone except Mother Nature. Pouring rain and chilling temperatures effectively made yesterday's races a simple battle to the line rather than an assault on the national leaderboard.

There truthfully weren't a ton of fast times to highlight from yesterday, but it only seemed right to offer at least some analysis on the men's and women's invitational 1500 meter sections. Because although these weren't the fastest marks, the individual battles were still plenty entertaining...

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Men's 1500 Meters

The first-half of the men's 1500 meter race was fairly straight forward. Former Iona standout Jamie Dee paced the field through 800 meters, coming through the split in roughly 1:58, a bit off from the 1:56 goal pace that was expected.

Through the first-half of the race, Dee led Georgetown's Parker Stokes and ZAP Endurance pro runner Dan Schaffer while a large contingent of Duke, North Carolina and Villanova runners settled in behind that group (along with Michigan's Nick Foster and Iona's Mael Gouyette).

Stokes would take over the front of this field until the final lap where Gouyette and Villanova's Liam Murphy timed their move to the front almost perfectly. With a jump on the rest of the field, those two men attempted to pull away while Parker Wolfe and Nick Foster gave chase.

And on the final curve, it was Murphy ultimately getting enough separation from Wolfe who was making a big move of his own. That final surge gave the sophomore the overall win while Foster passed Wolfe in the final moments of the race to secure silver.

Murphy got the win in a time of 3:41 (1500), a very solid mark considering the conditions and the somewhat slower-than-expected pace. Foster and Wolfe each settled for 3:42 marks.

While maybe not the time that he was looking for, Murphy has to be pumped about this result. He just took down a field which features numerous All-American-caliber talents. He timed his move perfectly and was able to keep the lead (or share the lead) for the entirety of the last lap -- and against the talent he was facing, that's not easy to do!

Sure, I may not have gotten his time right, but I did predict Murphy to win. He's been so dynamic and explosive as of late. His skillset has allowed him to be competitive in nearly any race scenario and he has also shown tremendous race IQ for someone who is still relatively young.

So while you could certainly say that this wasn't his fastest effort, it was still one of his most impressive performances all things considered.

As for Nick Foster, he proved that his indoor track campaign wasn't a fluke, nor was his advancement to the mile finals at the NCAA Indoor Championships. I said in our meet preview that his positioning and tactical prowess has become far more refined as of late and despite settling for the runner-up spot, I think this race was a perfect example of that.

The Michigan ace still needs to reach a point where he can run comfortably under 3:40 for 1500 meters if we want to keep himself in the All-American conversation. But after running 3:42 for the metric mile in those terrible conditions, it seems like a mark around 3:39 (at the very least) is well within his grasp.

As for Parker Wolfe, you've gotta give him credit, he fared a bit better in this race than I thought he would, especially given the slower and somewhat tactical nature of how this battle played out.

The North Carolina star dropped down in distance to refine his speed and made a challenging move on the final curve to go after the win. Sure, the former Colorado high school star didn't have enough turnover to catch Murphy or fend off Foster, but he still put together a really solid effort when you think about what his skillset is and how this race unfolded.

And after earning All-American honors on the indoor oval in the 5k this past winter, my confidence in Wolfe's understanding of racing nuances has risen. I like that he made his move when he did even if he didn't have enough gas over the final 100 meters.

When it comes to the rest of this field, it's hard to really get a good idea of how everyone performed. Everyone except Stokes and Gouyette stuck towards the latter-half of this pack for most of the race and never really moved up. Duke standout Nick Dahl did make an effort to put himself at the front, but he faded hard to a time of 3:46.

Overall, this just wasn't a great race for a handful of men who couldn't get going when it mattered the most. When it was time for them to make their moves, there was just nothing that they could do. I wouldn't look too heavily into the quality of these results. All of these men are significantly better than what we saw from them on Friday.

Women's 1500 Meters

For about 1300 meters, this race was the Amaris Tyynismaa show.

The former Alabama runner, who transferred to NC State during the winter months, decided to follower the pacer in this field (Angel Piccirillo) through 700 meters. Piccirillo was supposed to take the pace through 800 meters, but Tyynismaa overtook her 100 meters before that and ultimately came through the halfway-ish mark in a split of 2:13, exactly the time that the field was hoping for.

The problem, however, is that no one in this race decided to follow Piccirillo and/or Tyynismaa. Within the first lap, the newest member of the Wolfpack had opened up a 20 to 30 meter lead alongside the Puma pro and no other collegiate wanted to stick with them.

Going into the lap, it looked like this race was Tyynismaa's to lose. She had a massive gap and although she was clearly losing steam, it didn't seem like she going to slow down enough for this field to catch her.

But then Duke superstar Amina Maatoug decided to open up the chase pack and go after her newly-introduced ACC rival. Tyynismaa, meanwhile, was fading incredibly hard over the final 250 meters, allowing the rest of the field to catch her on the final curve.

Over the final 150 to 200 meters, it looked like Maatoug was going to run away with the victory. Her turnover looked sharp and she had given herself a boost ahead of her fellow competitors.

However, quietly on her shoulder was Michigan's Samantha Tran, a long-time BIG 10 veteran who had recently run a 4:34 mile PR during the winter months. And in a stunning development, it was the Wolverine ace making a smooth surge past her ACC counterpart on the final straightaway en route to the win.

In the end, Tran ran 4:18 for 1500 meters wile Maatoug also settled for a mark of 4:18.

For Tran, this win is massive validation of what we saw from her during the winter months. In the spring of 2021, she had run 4:14 for 1500 meters, but never really came close to matching that kind of result since then -- that is, until her 4:34 mile PR at Boston U. two months ago.

Now, the Michigan standout not only has a nationally competitive time on her resume, but also a marquee win over a handful of the best women in the NCAA, including a potential national title contender.

Few women are on the hot streak that Tran is on. While her showing at the BIG 10 Indoor Championships left us wanting more, her 4:34 mile PR and recent 15:52 personal best over 5000 meters gave her tons of momentum coming into this race.

It's time to start viewing Tran as a serious threat. Sure, this race may have played out differently had the conditions been more pleasant, but her recent body of work is hard to discredit. Between tactics, fast times, consistency and range, she's been doing all of the small things right.

As for Maatoug, we don't want to put too much stock into this result. The weather was awful, the race was tactical/slow and she barely lost to another miler who is plenty accomplished in her own right. There's no shame in how she performed.

That said, the last two races haven't exactly been kind to this Dutch distance star from Duke. Last month, she faded hard to 7th place in the mile at the NCAA Indoor Championships. And on Friday, she was upset by someone who didn't even qualify for the indoor national meet this past winter.

Is Maatoug still one of the best overall distance talents that the NCAA has to offer? Yes, almost definitely. If we were doing a fantasy draft for collegiate middle and long distance runners, she would be one of the first women off the board.

But as of late, her performances haven't inspired much confidence in us.

Still, it's important to recognize that a 7th place All-American finish on the national stage and a narrow loss in a bad-weather, tactical race aren't poor results in actuality. Because if Maatoug can only go up from here, then that's a very good thing.

We'll wrap up our analysis with Tyynismaa who put together a valiant effort. She was the only one brave enough to battle the conditions with the pacer in front of her. And unlike the men's race, she actually stayed on the desired pace.

In fact, she was nearly a second ahead of pace!

Did she fade (hard) in the final moments of this 1500 meter battle? Yes, she did.

And is this the second race where I thought we could have seen more from her? Yes, it is.

However, as fans of this sport, we can't be hypocritical. We can't ask someone to be the aggressor in an attempt to make things fast and then fault them when they get caught or falter. Plus, it's not like Tyynismaa ran poorly her last time out -- she did, after all, run 4:12 for 1500 meters at the Raleigh Relays just two weeks ago!

And frankly, after seeing her run 4:32 in the mile (unattached) back in February, no one should be questioning Tyynismaa's fitness or talent right now.

But that, ladies and gentlemen, is where our analysis ends. Trying to evaluate the rest of this field is truthfully a challenge. The only women who were truly in sight of the camera throughout this race were Tran, Maatoug and Tyynismaa. And with no one running particularly fast, there aren't too many insights that we can pull about someone's fitness or momentum.

This sport can be unpredictable sometimes, huh?