2023 Duke Invitational Preview (1500 Meters)

Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Apr 6, 2023
11 min read

Over the last decade or so, there have been a handful of east coast meets that have traditionally dominated where most of the top distance marks are run. The Bison Outdoor Classic at Bucknell and the Raleigh Relays at NC State are two invitationals that come to mind.

But over the last few outdoor track seasons, the Duke Invitational has become an increasingly more competitive venue for upper-tier distance runners. And in 2023, this may be the best collection of distance talents that we've ever seen in Durham, North Carolina -- at least over 1500 meters.

Due to some unforeseen time constraints today, and the fact that the 1500 meters are the clear highlight of the entries, this preview will be a little bit shorter than most. Still, we've got PLENTY to talk about. Let's jump in, shall we?

Click here to see final predictions

Women's 1500 Meters: Maatoug vs Tyynismaa vs Parks vs Hansen vs Tran

It'll be a "Clash of the Titans" battle this Friday as numerous high-octane metric milers will be toeing the line for a race that could end up being absurdly quick. According to one source, the women are slated to be paced through 800 meters in 2:13, meaning that the goal time for this field will be 4:09.

And truthfully, I think at least one person in this field can do that.

Let's begin with the home track favorite, Amina Maatoug. The Duke megastar was beyond incredible this past winter, running absurdly fast times and flexing incredible versatility. Despite an unexpectedly modest 7th place finish in the mile at the indoor national meet, this Blue Devil ace is still the best overall talent in this field.

During the winter months, Maatoug ran a flat-track converted time of 4:29 in the mile. And coming into this academic year, the Dutch distance talent held a 1500 meter PR of 4:14 (and still does).

That latter mark will almost certainly fall on Friday.

But Maatoug isn't just the favorite because of how fast she is or because of her raw fitness. It's because, in theory, every facet of her resume should allow her to handle pretty much any kind of race scenario.

And outside of the NCAA Indoor Championships, that theory held true throughout last season. With additional marks of 2:03 (800) and 8:55 (3k), the challenge of taking down Maatoug in her ideal event feels like a massive undertaking.

Now, admittedly, we haven't seen this NCAA newcomer race since the indoor national meet. Could there be some rust? Sure, I suppose it's possible. We did, after all, see that with Amaris Tyynismaa at the Raleigh Relays when she made her debut over 1500 meters.

However, when looking at your options, Maatoug feels like the somewhat obvious pick.

Speaking of Tyynismaa, the newest member of the NC State Wolfpack is also in this field!

After running a 4:32 mile PR (unattached) this past winter, the former Alabama runner made her outdoor track debut on her home track at the aforementioned Raleigh Relays. But despite running a fairly quick mark of 4:12 for 1500 meters, Tyynismaa fell out of contention for a top finish, falling behind a handful of women who were running 4:08 (Margot Appleton) and 4:10 (Rylee Penn and Teagan Schein-Becker).

Of course, it's hard to put too much stock into a simple rust-buster. That race was unexpectedly fast (or at least, faster than expected) whereas Friday's contest will be unsurprisingly quick.

From that perspective, Tyynismaa is due for a better result (which isn't to say that running 4:12 is a bad performance at all).

On paper, the Crimson Tide-turned-Wolfpack runner is in the same tier as Maatoug as far as 1500 meter firepower is concerned. Sure, her ACC rival may have the edge, but Tyynismaa is plenty capable of winning this race as long as she is firing on all cylinders.

Let's now move our attention to an interesting entrant: Taryn Parks of North Carolina.

In the winter of 2022, Parks showed everyone why she was one of the most highly-touted distance recruits in the Class of 2020. That season, the Pennsylvania native ran a 4:36 mile PR and masterfully navigated a mile final at the ACC Indoor Championships to win gold.

Then, this past winter, Parks proved that last year's victory wasn't a fluke, winning the ACC mile title for the second-straight year in a row.

Tactically, this rising Tar Heel ace is arguably just as good as any other entrant in this field. She has demonstrated perfect positioning on a handful of occasions and simply knows how to take down top names en route to important wins.

Of course, this race isn't going to be the tactical setting that Parks often thrives in. This race will be fast from the gun. And while the North Carolina standout is talented, her 4:15 (1500) PR will need to come down somewhat significantly if she wants to be in the mix with Maatoug and Tyynismaa.

But Parks isn't going to be fighting these metric mile megastars on her own. She'll have fellow teammate Carlee Hansen racing alongside her on Friday evening, a runner who is very similar to her.

Parks and Hansen both own 4:36 mile PRs. But on the outdoor oval, Hansen's 1500 meter PR sits at 4:14, one second faster than her teammate's best time, almost acting as a counterbalance to Parks' top finishes at the ACC Championships.

Hansen or Parks are going to run personal bests on Friday. Maybe both of them will! But this race will be a test of their aerobic fitness that differs dramatically from the tactical bouts that they have thrived in.

The last name who I want to holistically highlight is Michigan's Samantha Tran, a long-time veteran of Big Blue who ran a huge mile PR this past winter of 4:34. That mark was able to perfectly complement her 1500 meter PR of 4:14...which she ran all the way back in 2021.

Tactically, Tran isn't always perfect, but it's undeniable that she can be very dangerous in fast fields on big stages. She ran her mile PR at Boston University this past winter and just put together an excellent 5k PR of 15:52 at the Raleigh Relays the other week.

If everything clicks for Tran, then she can absolutely emerge as a top-five finisher in this field. And based on recent history, this kind of race theoretically puts her in a great position to match or surpass her old 1500 meter PR.

And then there's the rest of the field...good luck sorting through this group.

Almost every woman in this field has had some amount of high-level success in the mile or the 1500 meters -- but there are also a handful of questions associated with them as well.

Marlee Starliper is back from injury this season just like she was last spring. And in 2022, she rebounded beautifully, becoming one of the best 5k runners in the country. But how will she fare in the second weekend of April? What is a realistic 1500 meter time for her?

Your guess is as good as mine.

NC State's true freshman Grace Hartman looks like she could be the next Sam Bush of this group after a very solid indoor track season (where she ran 4:39 in the mile) and a highly promising outdoor track debut (where she ran 15:49 for 5000 meters).

Momentum is absolutely falling in Hartman's favor right now. However, trying to figure out what kind of 1500 meter time that will produce for her isn't totally clear.

Princeton's Margaret Liebich is a 4:39 miler, but just struggled in this same event at the Raleigh Relays, running 4:24 for 1500 meters two weeks ago. She's definitely better than what that result says, but it's hard to know where she'll finish within this field.

Anna Juul was a national-caliber miler leading into the pandemic. But since then, she's been somewhat quiet. The Michigan runner ran 4:38 in the mile back in February, but that was the first time that she had broken 4:40 all season long.

And then we have Isabella Giesing (UMass Lowell) as well as Kileigh Kane (Penn State). Gieising is a 2:02 (800) runner and Kane is a 4:38 miler. They both have the chance to be competitive in this field, but we'll see what kind of fitness this race pulls out of them.

Men's 1500 Meters: Villanova vs UNC vs Dahl vs Foster

Sit back and relax friends, I've got a whole lotta thoughts on this field.

Here's the thing: I don't really know if there is a sole favorite to win the men's 1500 meters. In fact, as I'm looking through these entries, I count eight collegiates who could realistically come away with a victory.

So instead of trying to start with the title favorite(s), I'm going to start with the teams that are bringing their top dogs to this meet.

Let's begin with Villanova, a middle distance powerhouse which boasted a juggernaut trio of milers this past winter. That group? Liam Murphy, Sean Dolan and Charlie O'Donovan.

In my eyes, Murphy is arguably the most dangerous name in this three-man contingent -- and maybe in the entire field as well. The sophomore standout has been beyond excellent this year, running incredible times of 3:55 (mile) and 7:45 (3k) on the indoor oval.

The New Jersey native is on a hot streak and he has seemingly not yet hit his ceiling. And in a field where numerous men are at his talent level, there's a chance that this could be a massive race for the rising Wildcat star.

Few men in this field are as explosive and as dynamic as Murphy while also holding the same upside that he does (there is one other, however). But Villanova does have two other top-caliber milers in this field who could prove to be incredibly dangerous.

Charlie O'Donovan, despite a bizarre and unfortunate setback in the DMR at the indoor national meet last month, has been running incredibly well as of late. The Irish Wildcat veteran showed tremendous improvement in the 3k last season (running 7:46), giving his resume more of an aerobic base to pair with his 3:56 mile speed.

And let's not forget, O'Donovan took down a handful of top-tier talents this past winter, many of which he'll face on Friday. He defeated Jesse Hamlin (Butler) and Matt Rizzo (Georgetown) in the mile at the BIG East Indoor Championships. That result came a few weeks after outlasting Jesse Hunt (North Carolina), Ethan Strand (North Carolina), Sean Dolan (Villanova), Jack Aho (North Carolina) and James Lee (Duke) at the Penn State National Open.

He may not be the first name that people think of when considering potential winners for this race, but O'Donovan is so much better than some people realize -- and he deserves your respect.

We then to come Sean Dolan, a guy you could argue is maybe the best miler / 1500 meter runner of this Villanova trio. But truthfully, we're just splitting hairs at this point.

Dolan is a three-time individual national meet qualifier, earning two All-American honors in the process, once in the 800 meters and once in the mile. He's run 3:56 in the mile and 3:38 for 1500 meters. The New Jersey native has also run 2:20 for 1000 meters and 1:46 for 800 meters, giving himself an argument as the most complete and pure middle distance runner in this entire field.

Over the last few seasons, Dolan has been good in the mile and the 1500 meters -- but he hasn't been at quite the same level as Murphy or O'Donovan, at least not as of late. But as this Wildcat veteran continues to throw down fast middle distance marks, it feels like he's due to run under 3:40 (1500) this weekend.

Alright, that was just the Villanova men. Let's chat about another trio of teammates who are arguably just as dangerous, but comparable to the Wildcats in terms of talent.

I am, of course, talking about the North Carolina Tar Heels.

Here's a not-so-hot take: Ethan Strand and Liam Murphy are actually the same runner who is just racing in a different singlet -- and you can't convince me otherwise.

Both men have run 3:55 in the mile and are separated by less than a second over 3000 meters (Murphy running 7:45 and Strand running 7:46). Both men are sophomores by eligibility and both men are experiencing breakout years on the oval.

Just like Murphy, we've seen Strand on a massive hot streak as of late. It doesn't feel like he has found his ceiling yet and it seems like he could be even better this spring than he was over the last few months. Both men are wildly explosive and are able to fare well in most race situations.

I am very much looking forward to seeing what a head-to-head matchup between Strand and Murphy looks like this Friday.

Fellow UNC teammates Jesse Hunt and Parker Wolfe are also in this field, only adding to the amount of top collegiates stars who will be crowding the front of this race.

Hunt, an Australian middle distance ace, is having the best year of his career, running a 3:56 mile PR on the indoor oval and upsetting Thomas Vanoppen for gold in the mile at the ACC Indoor Championships.

It still feels like Hunt is one step away from having the necessary firepower to compete for the win in this field. If this race was set to be more tactical, I would potentially consider him as more of a favorite for the win.

That, of course, isn't to say that he can't win this race. Hunt is certainly talented enough and a minor personal best would absolutely put him in contention for what would easily be the biggest 1500 meter win of the 2023 outdoor track season so far.

Wolfe, on the other hand, is more of 5k/3k specialist. While he does hold a 3:56 mile PR from this past winter, it's hard to see him having the necessary turnover to take down every other competitor in this field. Is it possible? Sure, it definitely is, but it's more likely that the Colorado native will be aiming to have this field drag him to a big-time PR rather than him winning this race.

This race will almost be viewed as a North Carolina vs Villanova showdown -- and rightfully so. I mean, did you see how much talent there is between those two teams?

But astute fans of the men's mile/1500 meters will realize that the favorite to win this race may not come from either of those schools. Instead, Friday's 1500 meter favorite may come from Michigan or Duke.

Michigan's Nick Foster has always been a very solid and talented runner for the men of Big Blue over the last few years. However, the distance ace has never been as strong as he is now. This past winter, Foster ran 3:56 in the mile and 7:53 for 3000 meters before qualifying for the mile finals at the NCAA Indoor Championships (where he placed 9th).

Foster may not have the upper-tier firepower or times to match what some of the other men in this field have been able to throw down -- but he's not too far off from them, either. He's been incredibly consistent so far this year and has developed a really strong understanding of positioning and tactics.

Overall, Foster is a far more complete runner than he has been in the past. And if he can take just one more small step up in fitness this Friday, then he'll have a shot at securing gold.

Of course, after all of this discussion, we've come to the guy who many will likely have as their pre-race favorite to win the men's 1500 meters.

Enter Nick Dahl.

The graduate transfer from Yale, who joined the Duke Blue Devils in the summer of 2021, has transformed into one of the most lethal milers that the NCAA has to offer. He has run very fast marks, has refined his range, is extremely consistent and is tactically excellent.

With personal bests of 3:55 (mile) and 3:39 (1500), as well as 1:48 (800) speed and a previous All-American mile honor, Dahl feels like the most complete runner in this field. He's more experienced and proven than both Murphy and Strand. He's also just flat-out faster than everyone else.

And when you consider that he'll be racing on his home track, it's easy to see why he'll be viewed as such a major name when he toes the line on Friday night.

As for the rest of the field, guys like Parker Stokes (Georgetown), Mael Gouyette (Iona) and James Lee (Duke) are all sub-four minute milers who could be competitive with a breakout race at this distance. Of this trio, Gouyette seems like the guy who is due for a big-time result, although he'll have to battle past an overwhelming field of talent for that to happen.