Digits: Constructing the Top 50

Yet another year has passed and in turn, we have finished another preseason release of our XC Top 50 rankings. There is a lot of analysis and thought that goes into these rankings, and as we make updates throughout the season, we can usually find trends in how we make our selections.

Last year, we released an article just like this detailing a handful of key takeaways. You'll notice that a number of these takeaways are very similar to what we have below.

Keep in mind that our women's coverage didn't begin until Week 8 of last year's cross country season. Therefore, there are significantly fewer trends for us to look at in comparison to the men's.

Here are some key numbers from last year's Top 50 as well as a few other statistics that could help tell the story for this year's set of rankings...

81: Number of men to make an appearance in our 2018 rankings

If you felt like one your favorite runners was left out of the rankings, then no worries, there is a good chance a spot will open up in the future. Of the 50 men who made it into our 2018 preseason rankings, 24 of them eventually fell out of the rankings. Only two of those 24 men (Tanner Anderson and Casey Comber) made their way back into the rankings and finished out the season in our Top 50.

In 2017, we also had two men (Jeff Thies and Brent Demarest) start their season inside our preseason rankings, fall out of the rankings midway through the season, and then end their season with a Top 50 ranking.

Lesson To Be Learned

Once you're off, it is extremely difficult to come back on...but it can be done!

8: Number of men who finished the 2018 season with a ranking that was within three spots of their preseason ranking

In 2017, Justyn Knight was the only person to keep the same ranking (#1) for every single week of competition. He was joined by Dillon Maggard as the only ones to finish the 2017 season with the same ranking that they were given in the preseason rankings.

In 2018, there was not a single runner who kept their preseason ranking for all 11 weeks of competition. In fact, there wasn't even a single runner who had a final ranking that was the same as their preseason ranking.

Five men - Tooker, Hoare, Klecker, Kemboi, and Fisher - finished the season within one spot of their preseason ranking. Tyler Day finished the season within two spots of his original ranking while Morgan McDonald and Connor McMillan finished within three spots of their original preseason ranking.

Lesson To Be Learned

It is not uncommon at all for us to make significant changes in the rankings. There will likely be some large moves up and down our Top 50 as the season progresses. It is rare to see runners stay where they are, and if they do, it is usually a handful of the country's top talents.

28 and 22: The number of Power Five runners (28) and the number of non-Power Five runners (22) that finished the 2018 season inside of our Top 50 rankings

At the end of the 2017 season, 26 non-Power Five runners had made their way into our final Top 50 rankings, meaning that (in our eyes) they had outperformed Power Five runners. Funny enough, we would unintentionally begin our 2018 preseason rankings with 26 non-Power Five teams and 24 Power Five teams.

Yes, Power Five runners were favored by the end of the 2018 season, but we are generally pretty fair when it comes to ranking runners from smaller, less-established conferences.

Lesson To Be Learned

We do not judge your overall level of talent based on the conference you run in. If you prove yourself against top-tier competition on more than one occasion, you will likely be considered for a Top 50 spot.

36 and 14: The number of Power Five runners (36) and the number of non-Power Five runners (14) - for both the men and the women - that have made it into our 2019 Preseason XC Top 50.

Generally speaking, we were pretty consistent about our balance of Power Five and non-Power Five teams for our 2017 and 2018 Top 50 rankings.

But this year? Well, based on previous rankings, it looks like we missed the mark.

In our 2019 Preseason XC Top 50, both the men and women unintentionally had 36 Power Five Teams and 14 non-Power Teams. This is a significant deviation from the balance that we have seen over the past two years.

For the men, part of this can be attributed to Northern Arizona, BYU, and Portland losing a handful of their top-tier runners while other small school elites (like Lawrence Kipkoech of Campbell and Azaria Kirwa of Liberty) have simply used up all of their eligibility.

Lesson To Be Learned

Based on our previous ranking tendencies, there is a very good chance that a number of small school standouts will make their way into the Top 50 later this fall.

4: The number of men's teams who have three or more runners represented in our 2019 Preseason XC Top 50

At the end of the 2018 season, six different men's teams had three or more individuals in our Top 50 rankings. Collectively, those runners made up 22 of our 50 available spots (or 44%).

However, this year, our men's 2019 Preseason Rankings are notably less concentrated. This year, our Top 50 rankings will begin with only four teams that have three or more ranked individuals. They take up only 13 of the 50 available spots (or 26%).

Lesson To Be Learned

If anything, this should tell you more about the top teams in the NCAA than it does the top individuals. Powerhouse programs like NAU, BYU, and Portland are all losing a handful of top runners, and their declining concentration of top-tier scorers is reflected in our Top 50 rankings.

6: The number of women's teams who have three or more runners represented in our 2019 Preseason XC Top 50

We only started ranking the women at Week 8 of the 2018 cross country season, but the end results would have been the same even if we had started at Week 1.

At the end of the 2018 cross country season, four teams made up 32% of our Top 50 rankings. Now, at the start of the 2019 season, that number has swelled to 42%.

We have been mentioning all summer about how difficult it is going to be to figure out who will win the women's team title later this fall and our Preseason Top 50 seems to reflect that. Six different women's teams hold a little less than half of the country's most elite talent.

Lesson To Be Learned

Much like the men's section, this tells us a ton about the women's race. These six teams (Colorado, New Mexico, Washington, Stanford, BYU, and NC State) all have great firepower, but the one who emerges victorious will be the team with the best depth. That will be the difference-maker in all of this.