Digits: Behind the Top 50

It's an odd time for TSR. Our 2018 individual rankings have been published, but it's still too early to begin our team rankings. While we wait for the collegiate cross country rosters to be finalized, we thought it would be an interesting idea to review our Top 50 from last year and understand what it takes to earn a weekly spot on our list.

Earlier this summer, we added a new feature to the site that allows you to review every runner that made our Top 50 during the 2017 season. This chart allows you to analyze the progression of runners that made our Top 50 during each week of the rankings (for a total of 12 weeks).

While some of you may just dismiss that chart as a bunch of numbers, they actually act as a guide to how we construct and update our rankings throughout the season. Understanding these trends may give you a better idea of what to expect from our rankings in 2018.

Constant Movement

Our 2017 rankings saw constant change. By the end of the season, 83 different individuals made an appearance in our Top 50. That means there were 33 individuals who made it into our Top 50 who weren't in our preseason rankings.

By the final week of the season, the 23 individuals who made our preseason rankings finished in our Top 50.

Major Takeaway: It is difficult to keep your spot in our Top 50, but there are also ample opportunities to earn a spot. There's a good chance that more than half of our current individual rankings won't stay on our list by week 12.

Concentration of Power

By the end of the 2017 cross country season, six teams made up 42% of our final rankings. Syracuse, Northern Arizona, Alabama, BYU, Portland, and Stanford had three (or more) individuals in our Top 50 for a total of 21 individuals. NAU led the way with a mind-boggling six individuals ranked inside the Top 50.

In our 2018 preseason rankings, five teams make up 36% of our rankings (Alabama, BYU, NAU, Colorado, and Stanford). It's very possible that another program like Iowa State, Wisconsin, Portland, or Oregon could join the mix of teams with three or more individuals in our Top 50.

Major Takeaway: There's a reason why powerhouse programs are as good as they are. Expect the top teams in the nation to place at least three of their guys in our Top 50 at some point this fall.

Consistency is Rare

There were only two individuals who finished last fall with the same ranking that they received in the preseason (Knight in 1st and Maggard in 8th). Knight was the only individual to maintain the same exact ranking for all 12 weeks.

Jacob Choge and Jonathan Green joined Knight and Maggard as the only runners to end their season within one spot of their preseason ranking. When you expand to within two spots of their preseason ranking, only Ben Flanagan, Joe Klecker, and Grant Fisher join the group.

Major Takeaway: Essentially, only 14% of runners in our final rankings were within two spots of their preseason ranking. It's nearly impossible for our preseason standings to be 100% accurate. Runners are bound to improve while others will falter. Don't agree with the spot of a certain individual? Don't worry, it'll probably change.

Once you're out, it's hard to come back

As we mentioned earlier, there were 33 athletes not listed in our preseason rankings who eventually made an appearance in our Top 50. There were 27 individuals who were in our preseason rankings, but not in the Top 50 after the final week of competition.

There were only five individuals throughout the season who...

- Were in our Top 50

- Fell out of the rankings

- Returned to the list

Of those five individuals, only Brent Demarest and Jeff Thies finished the season in our Top 50. The other three fell out (again) in the postseason.

Major Takeaway: Of the 33 individuals who got kicked out of our rankings during the season, only two of them were able to stay on the list by season's end (6%). Consistency and progress is key in our rankings. If you don't establish yourself before the postseason, you may not be on the list in late November.

Power 5 runners aren't always the best

At the end of the 2017 season, teams outside of the Power Five finished the season with more individuals in the Top 50 than schools from the Power Five conferences (26 to 24). Ironically, the 2018 preseason rankings favors non-Power Five schools again, 26 to 24.

Major Takeaway: We don't care about household names, where you go to school, or the perceived status of teams that you are racing (although don't confuse status with talent). If you have a good performance, you will be rewarded. If not, you will drop in the rankings.

No one is safe, any spot is up for grabs

As we mentioned earlier, only Justyn Knight held the same ranking for the entirety of the 2017 season. Everyone constantly moved around our Top 50.

The largest out-of-ranking improvement was Peter Seufer after he finished runner-up at Pre-Nats. He went from not being ranked to securing the 13th spot in week seven.

The largest in-ranking improvement (in a single week) came from Amon Kemboi who jumped 25 spots (36th to 11th) after placing 3rd at Pre-Nats in week seven.

Multiple runners dropped from our rankings throughout the season. However, the highest ranking drop was Morgan McDonald who was initially ranked 3rd. The announcement of his redshirt essentially made him nonexistent for the 2017 season as far as our rankings were concerned. The next largest drop was Matthew Maton who was ranked 17th in our preseason rankings. However, just like McDonald, Maton did not run last season and was moved out of our Top 50.

Iona's Gilbert Kirui was dropped from our rankings due to his absence during the regular season. However, he eventually raced at his conference, regional, and national championships.

The largest performance-based drop from our rankings was Kirui's teammate, Chart Miller. He was initially ranked 25th, but dropped from our rankings in week seven after finishing 152nd at the Wisconsin Invite.

Major Takeaway: Most of the top individuals who drop from our rankings fall out mainly due to not racing, redshirts, or injury. It's rare that you'll see someone ranked in the top 20 fall completely out of our Top 50.

At the same time, just because you aren't ranked doesn't mean you can't jump over everyone else just because they were ranked before you. If you run well, you will be rewarded.