Bullet Points: Virginia Challenge Preview

Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Apr 15, 2021
12 min read

The upcoming Virginia Challenge is set to be a thrilling meet with numerous top-level names headlining the distance fields. While we could put together a standard preview, we thought a bullet point approach may be easier (and more effective) for a larger invitational such as this one. Don't worry, we will still be able to cover a plethora of different names in different events.

So with that, let's get started...

Click here to see entries

800 (Women)

This race is essentially going to be a battle between Virginia Tech's Lindsey Butler and Villanova's McKenna Keegan, at least on paper. Butler ran 2:01 on the indoor oval this past winter while Keegan has already run 2:03. Both were All-Americans at the NCAA Indoor Championships back in March.

On paper, Butler is the favorite given what we saw from her a few months back, but Keegan has a ton of momentum and has been super consistent as of late. Not that Butler hasn't been consistent in her own rigt, but just because the Virginia Tech ace has a noticeably stronger personal best doesn't mean that Keegan can't come away with the win this weekend.

Virginia Tech veteran Sarah Edwards is finally back in collegiate competition after an extended period of time off. She has a personal best of "only" 2:10 for 800 meters, but her 1000 meter PR of 2:44 suggests that Edwards can run MUCH faster than that and maybe even emerge as a top-three finisher this weekend.

I feel like very few people are not giving the Richmond women the attention they deserve. Maria Acosta and Brooke Fazio own personal bests of 2:05 and 2:03, respectively. They have consistently produced top marks and have much more experience than some people realize. I mentioned how Butler and Keegan are the two favorites in this race, but maybe Fazio deserves to be in that conversation as well after coming off of a recent 2:03 effort.

Finally, keep an eye on Duke's Leigha Torino. She qualified for the NCAA Indoor Championships this past winter and was easily one of the best middle distance talents in the country when it came to her ongoing progression in the 800 meters. Torino just ran a new personal best in the 1500 meters and on paper, she should be able to dip into the 2:04 range assuming that this field is fast enough. I'm a huge fan of Torino and we should also acknowledge that she is an underrated runner when it comes to tactics, so that should be kept in mind for her race this weekend.

800 (Men)

Admittedly, the men's 800 meters doesn't have the same level of star power that the women's 800 field does. The overall favorite in this field is likely Virginia Tech's Diego Zarate who ran 2:19 for 1000 meters (unattached) this past winter. He's run 1:48 for 800 meters (according to TFRRS) and there just doesn't seem to be anyone in this field who can match his recent momentum or his past success. The Hokies are a powerhouse program in the middle distances and have not given us much of a reason to doubt them after having four men (five if you include Zarate) run under four minutes in the mile in the same race this past winter.

Other possible contenders include Connor Murphy (Virginia), Dolan Owens (North Carolina), Jack Joyce (Virginia Tech) and the Georgetown men. This will be a big opportunity for freshmen like Murphy and Owens, two ACC talents who have each run 1:49. A top finish, and maybe a new personal best, could solidify them as a key contenders at the East Regional Championships later this year. This weekend could be pivotal for those two when it comes to establishing momentum for the rest of the season.

1500 (Women)

When it comes overall favorites, there are a few different women we could highlight. Sarah Edwards (Virginia Tech), Dominique Clairmonte (NC State) and Elly Henes (NC State) are likely the best options to lead this field. Edwards ran a 4:32 mile on a flat-track this past winter (unattached) and that fact alone should make her the overall favorite, especially when you consider that she has better middle distance speed than almost any other top contender in this field.

On flip side, you could argue that Clairmonte's incredible rise this past fall could translate to the 1500 meters, a distance that has historically been her best event. However, a bout with mono during the winter months may have interrupted her training, so it's tough to know how she will handle racing in this field. Meanwhile, teammate Elly Henes will drop down in distance to work on her speed, but she may not have the same kind of middle distance wheels to hang with Edwards in the latter portion of the race.

I really like what we've seen out of the Wolfpack duo of Savannah Shaw and Nevada Moreno. Shaw just ran 15:40 for 5000 meters at the Raleigh Relays which was a massive breakout performance. She has been so consistent for so long and was finally rewarded with a major statement result. Shaw has been a historically steady and consistent miler, so does her 5k performance suggest that a breakthrough in the 1500 meters is also coming?

As for Mareno, when she's healthy and in peak form, she is arguably one of the more dangerous 1500 meter runners in the NCAA. She just ran 4:17 at the Raleigh Relays and could continue to bolster her presence in the East region after this weekend. She is a sneaky-good talent who should not be ignored in this field.

I'll be excited to see the Georgetown duo of Sami Corman and Maggie Donahue this weekend. That Hoya duo had an excellent cross country season, but Donahue will be dropping down in distance this weekend after coming off of a promising 5k performance where she ran 15:53. As for Corman, she just ran 4:18 for 1500 meters at the Joe Walker Invitational, so she may be looking to drop that mark even further despite just running a new personal best.

Also, keep an eye on Tar Heel freshman Taryn Parks. She just ran 2:06 last weekend to take home a promising win and she's entered in the 1500 meters. Don't forget that she was an elite miler during her time in the high school realm.

1500 (Men)

This field is loaded with pro athletes, specifically Robby Andrews and the guys from Reebok Track Club. However, when it comes to the top collegiates, we're likely looking at a battle between Virginia Tech's Diego Zarate and Florida State's Kasey Knevelbaard for the top spot.

Zarate ran a 3:57 mile (unattached) this past winter while Knevelbaard is coming off of a time of 3:38 for 1500 meters. On paper, these two are pretty even right now, although Zarate is more speed-based and Knevelbaard is more stamina-based. I'll be interested to see how the Seminole veteran comes back and handles this race after a hard effort from last week. If he can establish some consistency, then there's an argument that he's becoming just as dangerous as he was in previous seasons.

After those two, the collegiate names see a fairly significant drop-off. North Carolina's Jesse Hunt is a solid middle distance talent, as is Brent Bailey (Wake Forest), Jack Joyce (Virginia Tech), Rory Cavan (Duke) and maybe a few others from Tennessee and Georgetown.

If I had to choose anyone in this field to keep an eye on, it's probably Cavan who just ran 3:43 for 1500 meters. Depending on the heat that he's in, the Duke runner could potentially take off a second or two from his recent personal best. Much like Knevelbaard, it will be interesting to see how he handles this race after coming back from last week's hard effort.

Keep an eye on Iona's Jack O'Leary. The Gael veteran has been an overlooked stud at the longer distances, running 7:53 (3k) and 13:44 (5k) during the 2020 indoor track season. However, O'Leary looks like he's in the best shape of his life after earning a 25th place All-American finish at the NCAA XC Championships. He may be dropping down in distance, but his raw fitness may carry him to a solid time, potentially in the low-3:40's.

5k (Women)

This is pretty much going to be a battle between NC State and Northern Arizona and truthfully, it feels like the Wolfpack should be able to take control of this race with relative ease. Long distance stars like Elly Henes, Hannah Steelman, Kelsey Chmiel and even Katelyn Tuohy are just flat-out better than most of the women in this field (but certainly not all). Sure, the Lumberjacks have a few talented entries like Jeralyn Poe and Jessa Hanson, but we haven't seen them translate their 10k success to the 5k (at least not yet). I imagine that the NC State women will have someone pacing the way in this race and if that happens, then a handful of 15:40 times seems realistic. At the very least, all four of those Wolfpack runners should be able to dip under the 16 minutes.

In fairness to the rest of this field, women like Jessica Drop (Georgia) and Allyson Churchill (Florida State) also have a chance to step in and break up that NC State/NAU pack. Both of those women had outstanding indoor track seasons and were amongst the top distance talents in the NCAA. However, one could argue that their best event was the 3000 meters, so depending on how you look at it, I would almost argue that they are moving up in distance.

That said, I think running under 16 minutes for both of those women is realistic. Churchill is a name who I think could be primed for a statement performance after slowly rising up the collegiate ranks during the winter months.

There are a handful of other names who offer plenty of depth in this field such as Anna Elkin (Ole Miss), Paige Hofstad (North Carolina), Morgan Ilse (North Carolina), Sasha Nelgia (North Carolina), Mia Noham (Connecticut), Rebecca Clark (Florida State), Lauren White (Boston College) and a few women from Liberty.

Someone from this group is bound for a breakout race and I think it's going to be Elkin. The Ole Miss runner has emerged as a top option this year and has been quietly consistent. She just ran a 4:22 personal best for 1500 meters and finished 49th at the NCAA XC Championships. Elkin is taking really promising steps in the right direction and this weekend may produce her best result of all.

5k (Men)

The one name who immediately jumps out in this list of entries is Robert Brandt, the guy who can simply do it all. The Georgetown star ran 27:39 for 10,000 meters back in December and then dropped an unbelievably quick time of 3:38 for 1500 meters just last weekend. That was far more speed than we ever thought he would have. Now, Brandt is toeing the line for the 5000 meters and when you think about how good he was in the 1500 and 10k, this distance is theoretically his best event, but strictly on paper. We also can't forget that he ran 13:24 for 5000 meters (unattached) back in March, so the idea that he can run a similar time in this field isn't unrealistic.

Of course, in order for Brandt to run as fast as that, he'll need someone to help push him. Marathon standouts from Reebok Track Club like Colin Bennie and Martin Hehir will surely keep things honest, but Wake Forest standout Zach Facioni and North Carolina ace Thomas Ratcliffe are both in this race and will keep things honest. Those two went head-to-head last weekend in the 1500 meters, both running 3:39, with Ratcliffe getting the edge over Facioni (and teammate Brandon Tubby).

Based on what we've seen from these two men, the 5k should be their best distance. Yes, their recent display of middle distance speed is encouraging, but they have historically been at their best when racing in the 3k or longer. Now, their fitness will truly be tested as this race has the potential to be VERY quick if enough things go right. The idea that we see both of these men in the 13:30's isn't unrealistic.

There are a handful of other talented names in this field who could make a major splash, such as Kasey Knevelbaard (Florida State), Paul Arredondo and Nickolas Scudder (both of Charlotte), Conor Lundy (North Carolina), Ian Shanklin (NC State), Dan Schaffer (Binghamton) and Eric Van Der Els (Connecticut). But the name I want to talk about? Georgetown's Jack Salisbury.

Salisbury has been a staple name on this Georgetown roster for a while now. He's incredibly reliable, a true three-season threat and just ran a monster personal best of 3:40 for 1500 meters. This Hoya veteran has always been more of a middle distance runner, but his latest 1500 meter effort was tremendous and it shows a clear spike in his overall fitness. He hasn't ever run a 5k on the track (at least not collegiately), but he's been a fairly respectable talent on the grass and that leaves me to believe that he could sneak his way into the 13:40 range this weekend, especially if he's been training with someone like Robert Brandt.

10k (Women)

If we're just being blunt, I'm not sure why this field has an "Invitational" designation. There aren't any other 10k fields listed (other than the men) and this race is...well, not the best distance event of the meet. Either way, there are still a handful of key names to watch, although I wouldn't expect to see any Earth-shattering performances from this field.

On paper, the favorite is probably Amanda Vestri. She was incredible this past winter on the grass, clearly elevating her fitness to the highest point in her career. Sure, she didn't have her best day at the NCAA XC Championships, but the Syracuse runner is better than her 5k personal best of 16:09 suggests. That said, Duke's Michaela Reinhart had a few decent performances this past winter and her teammates had strong seasons as well. Reinhart feels like a great candidate to actually give Vestri a run for her money, although it also depends on how Georgia's Samantha Drop handles her long-awaited return to the longer distances (she ran a 1500 the other weekend).

Despite my comments on Vestri, some people could potentially argue that North Carolina's Paige Hofstad is actually the favorite to win this race. She has run 16:04 for 5000 meters and just finished 29th at the NCAA XC Championships, earning a pleasantly surprising All-American honor in the process. Is she better suited for this longer 10k? Maybe, but Vestri will prove to be a challenge either way.

Also, keep an eye on Patriot League cross country champion Ashlyn Ramos (Bucknell). She was an individual cross country national qualifier this past winter and is capable of posting something fairly quick.

10k (Men)

Much like the women's race, this field isn't quite as loaded as a few of the other races. However, this 10k will surely be fast as Florida State's Adriaan Wildschutt is likely considered to be the main contender who will be chasing the win. The graduate transfer from Coastal Carolina has emerged as a true star this year, becoming much more consistent and always delivering on championship stages. He owns a personal best of 28:53 at this distance, but is capable of running faster after finishing runner-up at the NCAA XC Championships. Wildschutt is a very aggressive front-runner and will likely be the one who keeps things honest in this race.

As for the rest of this field, I have to think that the Iona trio of Jack O'Leary, Ehab El-Sandali and Jamie Dee will feed off of their promising performances from the Stanford Invitational and translate that success to the 10k distance. O'Leary has already run the 10k this season, earning a time of 28:37, but El-Sandali and Dee both ran the 5k their last time out. All three of these men had excellent runs at the NCAA XC Championships this past winter and I don't have a reason to doubt them right now. If Wildschutt falls off the pace, then one of these three Gaels may be capable of reeling him in.

Between cross country performances and past results, you have to think that someone like Joe Dragon (Syracuse), JP Flavin (NC State), Rohann Asfaw (Virginia) and Nickolas Scudder (Charlotte) are going to be in contention for a top finish. It wouldn't at all surprise me if these two guys dipped under the 29 minute barrier. Someone from this group is due for a major breakthrough and my gut feeling is that it will be Dragon.

3k Steeple (Women)

There's not a lot to talk about here as many proven long distance talents are contesting the steeplechase for the first time OR are contesting the event for the first time at their newfound level of fitness.

Rookie Sasha Neglia is going to give the steeplechase a go while Villanova's Lydia Olivere, a top-ranked cross country talent, will make her return to the barriers and water pits. Be sure to also watch out for Liberty's Calli Doan and Adelyn Ackley. Those two women had great cross country seasons and I've always been under the impression that strong cross country runners are the best at the steeplechase. I don't have any data to support that assertion, but just work with me here.

My sleeper pick is Kyra Lopez (Virginia Tech). She's a true veteran, has been making incremental improvements over the last few seasons (including unattached performances) and is at her best in the steeplechase, owing a personal best of 10:19. It's very possible that she comes away with the win in this race.

3k Steeple (Men)

This field doesn't have the same level of firepower as some of the other distance races do. Sure, there are a few pro runners from Reebok Track Club entered, but the top-level collegiates aren't as plentiful as we've seen in other meets. That said, I think we could see a potentially great battle between Virginia Tech's Fitsum Seyoum and Tennessee's Alex Crigger.

During the 2019 outdoor track season, Seyoum won the ACC steeplechase title while Crigger won the SEC steeplechase title. Seeing these two men clash will be plenty exciting, although Seyoum seems to be the clear favorite thanks to his super impressive personal best of 8:40.

As for the rest of this field, guys like Hannes Burger (NC State), Felix Kandie (Liberty), Josh Higgins (Pittsburgh), Ben Hill (Wake Forest), Connor McMenamin (Bucknell) and a few others may have the chance to crack the 9:00 barrier and keep things interesting. However, I'll be incredibly curious to see how the Georgetown men fare in this race...

The Hoyas have a strong history of success in the steeplechase, producing numerous men who are often at the top of the NCAA leaderboard in this event and who are consistently chasing All-American finishes. This weekend, the Georgetown men are fielding underclassmen like Tim McInerney, Price Owens, Parker Stokes and Jantz Tostenson. It's hard to say how these younger runners will fare, but given what we have seen out of past Georgetown athletes, one of these guys is due for a breakout race.