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The Group Chat: Joe Walker Invitational & Tobacco Road Challenge
- TSR Collaboration
- Apr 8, 2021
- 17 min read
Joe Walker Invitational (Ole Miss)
How many men go under 3:40 in the 1500 meters? Who are they and why?
Maura: Based on looking at the entry list, there are eight men entered with sub-3:40 times. Ultimately, I think that seven men will dip under the 3:40 barrier. In no particular order, I’m going with Juan Diego Castro, Ryan Adams, Waleed Suliman, Jack Anstey, Sean Dolan, Mario Garcia Romo and Robert Brandt.
The Ole Miss duo of Suliman and Garcia Romo, as well as Oklahoma State’s Diego Castro, were very solid during the indoor season in the 800, mile and 3k. Garcia Romo has only run 3:44 for 1500 meters, but his 3:56 mile proves he is capable of much faster outdoors.
Villanova’s Sean Dolan has been on a roll since finishing 6th in the mile at the indoor national meet. He is coming off of his first collegiate win in the 1500 meters at Raleigh Relays, the same race he went 3:39 in. With a loaded field upfront, Dolan will have company to push him to a fast time, something that he has clearly not had an issue with as of late.
As for Adams, Anstey and Brandt, these three men didn’t compete during the indoor track season after their exhausting eligibility. Adams and Anstey competed at the Trials of Miles Texas Qualifier and finished in 3:38 and 3:39, respectively. Brandt, on the other hand, ran a 13:24 (5k) in California and recently went 28:23 for 10k (although he also ran 27:39 back in December).
All three of those men have been putting in solid work and have had major successes that should give them momentum heading into this weekend.
Ben: I think we will see nine men cross the finish line under 3:40 this weekend. There certainly are plenty of candidates in both the first and second section of the 1500 meters. With two good pacers in every section of the 1500 meters, there will be plenty of fast times run.
Like Maura, I have Castro, Adams, Suliman, Anstey, Dolan and Romo, but instead of Brandt I have Casey Comber, Festus Lagat and Cameron Ponder. All of these runners have run under 3:40 or run nearly the equivalent time in the mile.
Ponder is coming off a breakout winter season that saw him run 3:59 (mile) and 7:54 (3k), and I expect him to continue his hot streak this weekend. The Furman runner is in the second section, but with good pacers in front of him, he should be set up to run a quick time and win his heat. With less people in front of him going for a 3:39 time, he should be able to move through the field more easily.
Comber is coming off of a 3:39 performance at the Raleigh Relays which saw him run a solid negative split. In a race that will be paced more evenly, I expect the Villanova runner to run even faster this weekend.
Similarly, Lagat recently ran 3:39 at the Hayward Premiere meet, going up against NCAA indoor mile champion, Cole Hocker. The Iowa State middle distance star is an underdog to win this race even with his incredible 800 speed.
Some other names who could break this barrier are Charlie O’Donovan, Kasey Knevelbaard, Ahmed Jaziri and Jason Gomez. Gomez, in particular, is one to watch after his breakout indoor season that saw him place 5th at the NCAA Indoor Championships in the 800 meet. His PR in the 1500 is only 3:54, but with a 2:19 (1k) to his name, it would not be surprising to see the Cyclone cross the finish line near 3:40.
Garrett: I think it’s easy to look at this field and think that roughly 10 to 12 men are capable of going under the 3:40 barrier. However, that’s a historically fast mark and there’s no guarantee that all of these men will thrive off of the pace that is eventually established. In fact, I’m not sure who will even be willing to push the pace.
I’ll say that five men go under the 3:40 barrier. The most likely culprits will be Suliman, Dolan, Comber, Adams and Garcia Romo. Guys like Cameron Ponder, Robert Brandt, Everett Smulders, Aaron Wier, Charlie O’Donovan, Festus Lagat, Jack Antsey and Kasey Knevelbaard are super strong talents, but I think we’re forgetting the fact that a 3:39 roughly translates to a 3:56 mile (depending on who you ask). That is a very tricky task.
And before anyone says it, yes, I know that Lagat and Antsey have already run 3:39 (Antsey in a non-collegiate race) this year. But sometimes you just have to be bold and pick a few athletes who won't crack the barrier.
Comber and Dolan have already run under 3:40 this year and given how they ran their 1500 race at the Raleigh Relays, I think this field perfectly suits their strengths. I see another pair of 3:39’s coming for this duo thanks to a presumably fast finish.
As for Suliman, he showed us at the indoor national meet that he’s willing to be a bit more aggressive with the pacing, but not overly so. He’s been one of the best regular season milers in the NCAA over the past years and in these fields, he almost always runs a fast time.
When it comes to his teammate Garcia Romo, I’m truthfully not sure how he’ll handle this 1500. I have a hunch that he’ll be the one establishing the fast pace, but I’m not how he’ll respond to what will likely be a barrage of kicks in the final lap. That said, his 3:56 mile from this past winter suggests that he can run 3:39, but only in the right setting.
Finally, I think people are overlooking Ryan Adams. The Furman veteran was a true star on the indoor oval in 2020 before COVID cut his season short. He ran 3:38 for 1500 meters back in February and I think this field is perfectly balanced (in terms of competitiveness) for Adams to come away with a 3:37 personal best and a win.
Villanova vs Ole Miss: Who takes the win in the men’s 1500? Which program will come out with the better top-three?
Maura: I’m taking Mario Garcia Romo (Ole Miss) for the 1500 win. Garcia Romo has a modest 3:44 PR, but after a stellar indoor season where he recorded personal bests in the mile (3:56) and 3k (7:48), he just seems like he's on a different level. On top of those marks, the Rebel sophomore kept pace with Oregon’s Cooper Teare in the DMR at the NCAA Indoor Championships. Garcia Romo has had a breakout 2020-2021 year and that should surely continue on his home track.
The Ole Miss men will come out on top with a better top-three than Villanova. Even though the Wildcats have Sean Dolan and Casey Comber, an up-and-comer and a veteran, it’s hard to determine if O'Donovan will be able to build off of his 3:41 effort from the other week.
The Rebels have a slew of men behind Garcia Romo who could fill-in nicely, such as Waleed Suliman, John Rivera, Everett Smulders and Baylor Franklin. These four men went sub-4 in the mile during indoors and have proven they that race well together.
Ben: It is hard to disagree with Maura’s analysis, so I will agree with her picking Romo to win. Two other men who I could see crossing the line on top are Festus Lagat and Sean Dolan. Dolan’s 3:39 was very impressive at the Raleigh Relays as he closed in 1:53 over the last 800 meters. In a more evenly paced race, we could see the Wildcat youngster run under 3:38. All of that said, Romo was probably the third or fourth best miler in the country behind only the Oregon stars, and he will have the opportunity to prove that on his home track.
As for who has the better top-three, I like Villanova. Dolan, Comber and Charlie O’Donovan all ran well at Raleigh and look primed to run even faster this weekend. Ole Miss likely has the best runner in the group in Romo, but I like the Wildcats putting two guys right behind him. Waleed Suliman will be in the mix too, but I like what I’ve seen from O’Donovan more than I have from Smulders to this point, simply because I have seen the Villanova runner on the outdoor track already this year.
Garrett: To put it simply, Ole Miss has more options, but Villanova has more of the recent momentum. I’d have to say that on paper, the Rebels will have the better top-three. How will we measure that? I’m not quite sure yet, but Ole Miss has so many top options between Suliman, Garica Romo, Rivera, Smulders, Franklin and even guys like Bethmann and Hengst. It wouldn’t be surprising if one of those final few names had a breakout race.
The Villanova men probably have more momentum after running 3:39 (Dolan), 3:39 (Comber) and 3:41 (O’Donovan), but Ole Miss has just as much firepower and is simply deeper...for now. In the end, I think Furman's Ryan Adams wins it all, but the top name between these two programs will be Suliman. Let's not forget that he ran 3:55 this past winter, taking down Garcia Romo in the process.
Who is your pick to win a loaded women’s 1500 field?
Maura: Give me Toledo’s Petronela Simiuc for the win. The Rocket senior hasn’t competed yet this season on the college scene, but back in early March, she travelled to Poland and ran a three-second PR of 4:14. This time would currently lead the NCAA and if she can match that, then Simiuc would be in the conversation for a potential NCAA title come June.
Garrett: I wanted to say Gabrielle Jennings, but I think we’re in for a major performance from Notre Dame’s Katie Wasserman. The graduate transfer from Columbia just threw down a monster 15:33 (5k) effort at the Raleigh Relays. That newfound strength is super impressive, but people seem to forget that she was also an accomplished miler during the 2020 indoor track season.
During that winter season, Wasserman qualified for the eventually-cancelled Indoor National Championships with a flat-track converted 4:37 mile. I think her recent rise in stamina will give her the edge over Simiuc and Jennings, especially if this turns into a fast, strength-based race.
Ben: If we are looking for someone who can hold their won in a fast, strength-based race, give me Taylor Roe of Oklahoma State. The Cowgirl ace had a very good fall and winter and is coming off of a huge runner-up finish at the NCAA XC Championships. Her cross country performances, paired with her 4:39 in the mile this past winter, leads me to believe that she will be able to hang with the quick pace and have more left in the tank than anyone else in this field.
With two fast heats of the men's 800 meters taking place on separate days, which heat runs the fastest? Who takes the win in each heat?
Maura: Festus Lagat, Roshon Roomes and Finley McLear have run similar 1:47’s this outdoor season thus far. Even though the Cyclones essentially create their own invitational heat with the likes of Lagat, Jason Gomez and Daniel Nixon, I like the potential of McLear in the other heat a bit more.
The Miami (OH) middle distance ace will be out for revenge after finishing 0.01 seconds behind Oregon’s Charlie Hunter at the NCAA Indoor Championships. He took down a respectable field in the 800 meters at the Raleigh Relays the other week and has momentum heading into this race where his toughest competition may be Bethmann, Roomes, Colley, Rivera and a few other key names.
On paper, that group should be fast enough to push McLear to a sub-1:47 effort, but not overwhelmingly powerful that he'll potentially get upset. For that reason, I think he'll be set up to run the fastest.
Ben: Due to some of the best 800 runners also running in the 1500 on Friday night, there will be two elite heats in the event, one on Friday night and one on Saturday afternoon. The Friday favorite will be Finley McLear as he goes up against Roshon Roomes, Ackeen Colley, Alex Lomong and Cade Bethmann. With both heats scheduled to be paced through 1:18 to 1:19, I like McLear to take the win with a time of 1:46.
On Saturday we will see Iowa State teammates Festus Lagat and Jason Gomez go head-to-head. Gomez beat Lagat during the indoor season, but I see Lagat turning the tables on Gomez and taking the win here in a time of 1:45. With Waleed Suliman, Sean Dolan and other milers doubling back in the 800, this heat could be even more competitive than the one on Friday.
Garrett: I have to agree with Maura, I think McLear's heat -- despite names like Lagat, Suliman, Diego Castro, Gomez, Nixon, Smulders, etc. not being in his section -- actually benefits McLear. He should feel confident that he can go out and dictate how this race plays out. That's not to say that his field is going to be easy, but I think they'll be fast enough where he can still win and still be pushed.
In the other heat, I have to question if some of those elite veterans are willing to make this race super fast from the gun. So, with that said, I think the invitational heat will have the fastest winner (McLear), but I think the non-invitational heat with have greater depth in terms of times.
After a breakout weekend double at the Pepsi Florida Relays, how fast will Auburn’s Presley Weems run in the 800 meters? Is she the favorite to win?
Maura: With a 2:04 PR from last weekend, Weems is surely in the conversation for the individual win this time around. That 2:04 mark was a remarkable five-second PR for Weems who has had to deal with injuries during her collegiate career. I’m not sure if Weems will run another PR this weekend, but with her surprising 800/1500 weekend double, a sub-2:04 could be in the cards.
There will be women close to the Auburn star, but no one has matched her firepower this early in the season. Middle Tennessee State’s Eusila Chepkemei, as well as Georgetown’s Linnea Saltz and Cathilyn McIntosh, are expected to be near the front given their faster 800 personal bests and mix of 400 meter speed.
Ben: I agree with Maura that Weems deserves to be the clear favorite going into this 800 race at Ole Miss. With the Auburn star getting a chance to run the 800 meters totally fresh, I think we could see another big PR for Weems. Ole Miss has a pacer leading the race through 500 meters and us coming through 400 meters at 59 which sets her up to run a 2:02. A performance like that would put her into the All-American discussion early in the season.
Garrett: Weems' weekend double at the Pepsi Florida Relays was super impressive. She was coming off of a 1500 meter victory and then toed the line for the 800 meters the next day to earn a 2:04 runner-up finish. Now, she'll be completely fresh for this race and that should only benefit her.
The only issue, however, is that this field isn't exactly going to give her a huge challenge. Kelly Hart (Notre Dame) is super underrated, but if Weems is going to earn a personal best, then I don't see it being any faster than 2:03. Yes, I know the pacer is supposed to come through in 59 seconds, but I just don't think this field is going to be fast enough in the latter-half of this race to produce a super fast time...but I do think that Weems will win.
Will Kigen Chemadi upset Ryan Smeeton in this early season steeplechase race?
Maura: Given that Smeeton had a strong 26th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships, I think he has the upper-hand on Chemadi. Yes, Chemadi has at least run on the outdoor track once this season, posting a modest 1:54/3:50 double at the WKU Hilltopper Relays, but Smeeton has trained for a tough cross country course and has been racing against the nation’s best.
The OSU steeple star has an 8:27 PR compared to Chemadi’s 8:38 personal best. The difference here is that Smeeton has beaten Chemadi before, so that leads me to believe that he could do it again this weekend.
Ben: Like Maura said, the smart money is definitely on Smeeton who is coming off of the best cross country race of his career, but I would not count out Chemadi. The MTSU runner finished 3rd in the steeplechase in 2019, one spot behind Smeeton. When he's in shape, he is one of the most well-rounded runners in the country.
It is hard to tell where Chemadi is in terms of fitness, but if he is near his peak, then he could make things interesting. Still, all eyes will be on Smeeton as he looks to build on his impressive 2019 campaign in the steeplechase.
Garrett: Everything that Ben and Maura said suggests that Smeeton is the favorite...and I would agree with that! However, Chemadi has likely had more time to refine his steeplechase skills when you consider that Oklahoma State was focusing on cross country this past winter.
That, of course, is only speculation, but I think this race will be a lot closer than some realize. I like that the Middle Tennessee State coaching staff has been trying to refine the middle distance speed of their long distance juggernaught (both this spring and last winter) and in the end, I think that actually gives Chemadi the win.
Tobacco Road Challenge (Duke)
Over / Under: Thomas Ratcliffe and Brandon Tubby run a combined 7:24 in the men’s 1500 meters (3:42 average). Will anyone challenge these two for the win?
Maura: I'll say over 7:24 for Ratcliffe and Tubby, but only barely. Both UNC Tar Heels only own 3:44 personal bests, but have both gone under four minutes in the mile (once each), both of which came at the 2021 ACC Indoor Championships.
Wake Forest’s Zach Facioni will be the top challenger to the UNC duo. Facioni just ran a 3:42 PR for 5th place at the Raleigh Relays. He has been quietly moving up in the NCAA, especially in the 3k/5k. Facioni earned his first All-American honors recently in cross country and will be trying to prove that he can hang with NCAA veterans.
Ben: I’ll go just under on the 7:24. Tubby is one of the most underrated milers in the country. He split a 3:55 anchor at the NCAA Indoor Championships to help North Carolina finish 4th in an extremely quick DMR.
Likewise, Ratcliffe had the third-fastest 1200 split at the national meet, running a 2:53. We haven’t seen either run since that DMR, but both should be able to run in the low 3:40's. In fact, I think if the pacing is good enough, we could see Tubby under 3:40.
With Facioni also entered in the 5k, I wonder if he will skip the 1500 meters. However, if he does run, then he is clearly the best challenger. If he does not, then fellow Demon Deacon Brent Bailey might be one to keep an eye on. He just ran 3:46 at the Raleigh Relays and placed 5th at the ACC Indoor Championships in the mile, running 4:01. Depending on how the race is run, Bailey could give the top UNC duo some problems.
Garrett: I'll just get this out of the way and say that Facioni is easily the biggest challenger to Tubby and Ratcliffe. In fact, depending on who you ask, he may be the overall favorite. I love the progress that we've seen out of him, although his improvements have largely been in the longer distances.
As for Tubby and Ratcliffe, I agree with Ben that we'll see a combined time that is slightly faster than 7:24, so I'm taking the under. I think it's more realistic that these two each run 3:42 or faster than not. Even if someone settles for a 3:43, the other guy could realistically run 3:41. With Facioni potentially keeping the pace honest in this field, I think that this Tar Heel duo can break that average.
Who takes the win in the women's 1500 meters as many key names step down in distance?
Maura: NC State teammates Hannah Steelman and Sarah LaTour, as well as Elon's Melissa Anastasakis headline this field. I can’t choose a clear winner out of these three because each of them bring a different strength to this race, as well as recent success.
Steelman has a PR of 4:21, but produced stellar times during the indoor season and has clearly seen an up-tick in fitness. Anastasakis has run 4:19 for 1500 meters and is coming off of an 8th place finish in said event at the Raleigh Relays. LaTour will be making her 1500 meter debut, but she is coming off of a big steeplechase result at the Raleigh Relays, running 10:04 in her event debut. She is a rising name with some interesting momentum.
Steelman may have the advantage here as she has wins under her belt from recent big races. However, Anastasakis beat some respectable names and LaTour has surely gained confidence after a breakthrough race.
Ben: I like Hannah Steelman in this race. The new NC State runner has been a dynamic star this year on the track and on the grass. She placed 5th at the NCAA XC Championships in Stillwater and it looks like she paced the 10k at the Raleigh Relays through the first 8k. She is clearly in great shape.
Whether Steelman has the wheels to win in this middle distance-based 1500 meter race is a valid question. However, I’m inclined to believe that her overall fitness will give her enough strength to outlast this underrated field.
Garrett: I'm with Ben. I like what we've seen out of LaTour, and I think we're really undervaluing North Carolina's Morgan Ilse here. However, I feel like Hannah Steelman is the favorite. She has proven to be ridiculously fit as of late. I have to think that her cross country fitness will translate to a fast-enough 1500 meter time, even if someone like Ilse is better suited for this distance.
Over / Under: Zach Facioni running 13:40. Bonus question, who is the 2nd place finisher in this race?
Maura: Facioni will not be facing that deep of a field this weekend as no men from NC State nor UNC are entered in the 5k. The Wake Forest ace will be facing fellow teammates and a strong contingent of Duke athletes.
The Demon Deacons might be setting this race up for Facioni (via a pacer) and if that’s the case, then a sub-13:40 is possible. However, if there isn’t a pacer, then I’m not confident that Facioni will break 13:40. Plus, keep in mind that Facioni has only run 13:48 for the 5k in his career.
As for the 2nd place finisher, I like the potential of Duke’s Alex Miley. The sophomore hasn’t raced a 5k in his time at Duke, but he has put together solid times in both the 1500 meters and 3k which should bode well for a 5k debut. Miley is also coming off of a 68th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships and that should give him confidence entering this weekend.
Ben: I’ll take the over as well. I certainly believe that Facioni has the ability to run under 13:40, but like Maura said, unless this is a well-paced race, it is hard to see it going out quick enough for the Demon Deacon to run that quick of a time.
Miley is a good pick, as is fellow Blue Devil teammate CJ Ambrosio who ran 14:05 this past indoor season. One wild card who I would like to highlight as a possible 2nd place contender is Jonathan Velasco of Wake Forest.
The second-year runner has not run a track race for the Demon Deacons yet, but did put together a strong cross country season over the fall and winter months. He placed 12th at the ACC XC Championships and finished 15th at the FSU Winter XC Classic before finishing 101st at the cross country national meet. It's hard to say where he will land on the track, but he clearly has the talent to put together a low 14:00 (5k) this weekend.
Garrett: I'd like to be different and say that Facioni will run under 13:40, but I just don't know if this field is going to allow him to run that fast. He has clearly improved his fitness, but I'm not sure that this field is going to push him to run this fast, so I'll say over.
There are a handful of men who could challenge for the runner-up spot, but I'll go with Jack Tiernan. The Wake Forest runner has been super inconsistent, but when he is at his best, he is a super talented name who is difficult to take down. In a somewhat low-pressure field where he knows what his star teammate is going to do, I think he'll be ready for a fast(ish) 5k.
Will we see a sub-16:00 mark in the women’s 5k? If not, who takes the win and in what time?
Maura: A sub-16:00 finish in the women’s 5k is a possibility with the mix of UNC’s Paige Hofstad, Morgan Ilse and Sasha Neglia as well as Duke’s Michaela Reinhart and Sara Platek in the field. Hofstad and Ilse have run 16:04 and 16:05, respectively, in their careers. Neglia will be making her 5k debut, but after a stellar cross country season for only a freshman, a big performance is possible.
Duke’s Reinhart and Platek have run 16:17 and 16:16, respectively, and both will be after redemption after struggling at the NCAA XC Championships. The Blue Devils have been a time on the rise as of late and both of these ladies have contributed to their team's success.
My predictions for the winner and time are Paige Hofstad in 15:59. Hofstad has the most experience in this field and just earned her first All-American honor with her 29th place finish at the cross country national meet. She should easily be able to translate that success over to the outdoor oval.
Ben: I agree that Hofstad enters the meet as the favorite, but I like Sasha Neglia and Michaela Reinhart to give her a run for her money. Because of how competitive this field is, I do like someone to break the 16:00 mark. In fact, I could see Hofstad, Neglia and Reinhart all going under that time.
Ultimately, Hofstad’s experience and top times, along with her 29th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships, will give her the edge as she runs 15:56.
Garrett: I know Sasha Neglia was great this past cross country season, but UNC teammate Paige Hofstad is a veteran who had a higher finish at the NCAA XC Championships, earning an All-American result. Hofstad should be capable of running under 16 minutes, although I would agree that Michaela Reinhart is going to be her biggest challenger and probably the reason why Hofstad runs under 16 minutes, specifically 15:59.
Both of these women held their own in smaller, intensive fields, so although I'm taking Hofstad, I could see a situation where Reinhart gets the win.
