22 Questions For 2022

Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Jan 1, 2022
9 min read

I find it difficult to dislike New Years celebrations.

The December 31st to January 1st transition is an annual moment that the entire world can enjoy together, with each individual being gifted a washing away of their past struggles and an enhanced feeling of optimism for what is to come.

Outside of the cheesy television personas and the heavily manicured musical performances, New Years seemingly takes the cake for holidays.

That, however, doesn't leave us any less curious about what the future holds and what lies ahead.

Below, we offer 22 questions for the upcoming (and current) 2022 calendar year. Maybe 364 days from now, we'll have answers for all of them...

1. Which events will Courtney Wayment run at the NCAA Indoor Championships?

Here's the thing: Courtney Wayment can be a national title favorite at this year's indoor national meet in any event she chooses, from the mile up to the 5000 meters, and that includes the DMR.

Last year, the BYU star ran the 3000 meters and the DMR at the indoor national meet. However, after securing double gold in those events last year, could she alter her plans for 2022?

Whatever Wayment decides to run at the NCAA indoor Championships this year could drastically alter who we will see as the national title favorites in other events. It could also change which teams should pursue the DMR and which ones should not.

2. Can the Ole Miss men reclaim their 2017 national title crown in the DMR?

Few programs in the NCAA have had greater success in the DMR at the indoor national meet than the Ole Miss men. After winning the national title in 2017, they have established this relay as one of their marquee events.

In a world without Oregon, the Rebels would have been the NCAA's most exciting distance crew on the indoor track last year. Now, with many of the Ducks' most elite talents off to the professional ranks, the Ole Miss men look like they are loaded to the brim with elite middle distance depth. The return of Mario Garcia Romo will do wonders, as will the return of Everett Smulders, Baylor Franklin, John Rivera, Michael Coccia and a healthy Cade Bethmann.

The addition of new names like Cruz Culpepper, James Young, Shane Bracken and Tiarnan Crorken, will also give Coach Ryan Vanhoy numerous options to choose from when crafting the perfect lineup.

3. Will the Arkansas women or Stanford women go all-in for the DMR this year? Will BYU go all-in for the DMR once again?

The Arkansas women and the Stanford women are often amongst the NCAA's best distance medley relays each and every winter. However, with certain athletes doubling back from the mile prelims, certain athletes putting focus on the 5000 meters or some athletes being too tired to come back from the 800 meter prelims, we're never quite sure what we're going to get out of the Razorbacks and the Cardinal in this race.

Both Arkansas and Stanford are capable of winning the DMR national title this year, but it will also need to make sense for them from a points perspective. If they can score more points by spreading their talent across numerous events, then that will likely be their approach rather than going all-in for the event.

We also have to wonder about the BYU women. Will they field a relay that has Wayment on the anchor? Or will they let her pursue individual glory in the 5000 meters after giving the Cougars NCAA gold in the DMR at last year's indoor national meet?

4. How effective will Wesley Kiptoo's tactical racing adjustments be, if at all?

Despite his talent, the biggest criticism against Wesley Kiptoo has been his overly aggressive race tactics. In numerous championship settings, he has lacked patience and has rarely put himself in a position to contend with the NCAA's most elite talents during a fast finish.

That, however, used to be the case until this past fall when Kiptoo began to show more subtle signs of tactical prowess. He didn't win a national title and he was unable to take down Mantz, but he kept things truly competitive and looked like he was in a position to win gold.

Can Kiptoo translate his evolved understanding of race strategy to the indoor oval and build upon it? If he can, then Kiptoo could end up as one of the greatest NCAA distance runners of all-time.

5. When will we see Oregon's Keely Small toe the line? When she does toe the line, how good will she be?

The Australian superstar has been mentioned a few times, but she will be joining the Ducks this winter with personal bests of 2:00 (800) and 4:34 (mile). Small is clearly going to be one of the NCAA's most elite talents when she's at 100%, but we don't know when that will be.

Why?

Well, back in March, Small sustained a L5 fracture and hasn't raced since.

When will Small return? When she does, how strong will she be? How long will it take her to return to her top form? All of these are questions that we will need to wait patiently for, maybe for longer than we'd prefer.

6. How much faster can Brandon Miller get as a sophomore? Can he translate his success from the outdoor oval to the indoor track?

The Texas A&M youngster proved to be a superstar for the Aggies last spring as he ran 1:44 for 800 meters and finished runner-up at the NCAA Outdoor Championships. Now, with both Jewett and Hunter gone, there is a somewhat clear path to NCAA gold for Miller (although Finley McLear would likely disagree).

Still, we have questions as to how he will translate his 1:44 mark to the indoor track. That is a task that is a lot easier said than done, but it's clear that Miller is talented enough to be considered as the national title favorite this winter...we think.

7. Who are the title favorites for the women's 5000 meters and 10,000 meters?

The only way to answer this question is to ask another question: Will Courtney Wayment run the 5000 meters at either the indoor or outdoor national meets? If so, then she'll be tagged as the favorite to win NCAA gold. If she doesn't, then it feels like a bit of a toss-up.

Between Mercy Chelangat, Grace Forbes, Katelyn Tuohy, Ceili McCabe, Bethany Hasz, Sam Bush, Taylor Roe and a few others, the women's 5k and 10k seems to be completely wide-open.

Simply put, your guess is as good as ours.

8. Who are the title favorites for the men's 5000 meters and 10,000 meters?

The answer to this question largely depends on your answer to Question #4. If Kiptoo can refine his race tactics, then he'll be the favorite. Otherwise, it seems like a complete toss-up as to who could take NCAA gold in these events.

Guys like Hicks, Kioko, Wildschutt, Kemboi, Beadlescomb, Nur, Lumb, Garcia Romo (if he moves up in distance) and Kipsang (if he's healthy) could all be realistic title contenders, but there isn't one name who stands out in a dramatic way.

9. Just how good will Avi'Tal Wilson-Perteete be at Texas A&M?

Wilson-Perteete has proven to be one of the nation's best middle distance runners in the NCAA. She has a ton of raw talent and has found success in the 800 meters since she was a freshman at UNLV. After a few up-and-down postseason learning experiences, Wilson-Perteete began to find championship success in the latter-half of her career.

With a strong PR and extensive experience, Wilson-Perteete has all of the tools to be great. The Texas A&M coaching staff have developed some of the nation's most elite 800 meter talents ever. If they are able to properly refine Wilson-Perteete's already elite talent, then she may go down as one of the best ever.

10. Can the Lee men earn the D2 national record in the DMR with Bix now on their squad?

With Titus Lagat sporting a 1:48 personal best and Noble having run 4:00 in the mile, the addition of Carson Bix, a superstar transfer from Adams State, is huge.

The Flames have made it very clear that they are going to be pursue the men's D2 national record in the DMR this year, a mark which currently sits at 9:40.15. Luckily for them, having a third home run piece in Bix could give the Flames the necessary firepower to go after that record and not just break it, but smash it.

Of course, like most lofty aspirations, that is easier said than done, especially in an event where everyone will need to run well on the same day.

Still, if there is a team in the D2 ranks that is capable of snagging that record, it looks like it might be the Flames.

11. Who will be a favorite in the D2 women's 3000 meters? Celine Ritter or Hannah Becker? What about the D2 women's 5000 meters?

Ritter is the nation's D2 record holder for 3000 meters by a margin of five seconds and is the reigning champion in the event from last year. On paper, she should be the clear favorite for this race. However, Becker (nee Roeske) just won the D2 cross country national title this past fall and has proven to be incredibly versatile.

In theory, Becker should be able to challenge Ritter for the national title this year, along with GVSU teammate Klaudia O'Malley. However, that is more likely to happen in the 5000 meters given the results that we saw from Becker and O'Malley at the NCAA XC Championships this past fall.

12. Will the D2 men see a true sub-four mile performance this winter?

I'd say that it is more likely than not that we see a sub-four mile result at the D2 level. Between Ryan Riddle, Christian Noble, Tony Torres, Luke Julian and potentially one wild card, there seems to be numerous instances where a sub-four D2 result could happen. Riddle has run 4:01 while both Noble and Torres have run 4:00. Meanwhile, Julian has run a 3:58 conversion.

13. Can Allie Ludge finally win her first individual D2 national title?

One of the most accomplished D2 distance runners in the country is Allie Ludge who has earned more All-American honors than we can count. However, shockingly, she has yet to earn a national title.

On paper, Ludge is talented enough to do exactly that, but this is also going to be a challenging year to win NCAA gold given how strong women like Celine Ritter and her own teammates are.

14. Who is the greatest threat to Alex Phillips' D3 title chances this winter and spring?

Let's assume that Phillips will run the 5k and 3k at the indoor national meet as well as the 10k and 5k at the outdoor national meet. In those races, his biggest challengers would most likely be the same standout veterans that you saw this past fall.

However, the Williams men also look like they could be a problem. Elias Lindgren looks like he's a true D3 star, especially after his recent 5k performance, and long-time veteran Aidan Ryan appears to be back at the top of his game this winter after taking a hiatus last year.

Ryan's experience and raw fitness could make him a legitimate challenger to Phillips who has a target on his back for everyone in D3.

15. Will Esther Seeland be able to translate her outdoor 800 meter success to the indoor oval?

Seeland was amazing last spring, emerging as a D3 all-time star and eventually qualifying for the US Olympic Trials. However, despite running 2:02 for 800 meters, we have never seen Seeland run faster than 2:10 on the indoor oval. That's what happens when your breakout season comes in the spring and not the winter.

There is little doubt that Seeland will be able to capitalize and improve upon her current indoor best. But the real question is....by how much?

16. Which big name transfers will we see this summer?

The pandemic obviously did more harm than good, but it did facilitate greater volume in the NCAA transfer market. With more athletes have extra eligibility remaining, many student-athletes opted to extend their educational and athletic careers as graduate students.

The extra eligibility granted by the NCAA won't begin to fade from the collegiate ranks until we reach 2025. That, in turn, means that there will likely be numerous graduate transfer situations in each summer leading up to then.

In other words, even the nation's most experienced and most talented distance runners could be looking for new homes this summer just like we've seen over the last two years.

17. Are the NC State women still the cross country national title favorites for next fall?

It depends on who you ask. The Wolfpack still have a very promising young core in Tuohy, Bush and Chmiel, but they lose Steelman, Clairmonte and Hays.

Meanwhile, BYU loses four of their top-five which is a crushing blow. Of course, as they've shown before, this team won't be damaged by the loss of star low-sticks. They did, after all, just land the nation's top freshman class (according to us).

Maybe it's the New Mexico women who could put themselves in the title conversation once again. However, much like NC State, their lineup is split between returners and departures.

If you needed an answer to this question now, I'd say that the NC State women are not the favorites for next fall, but that's only because I don't think anyone truly knows if there even is a title favorite right now.

18. Can anyone challenge the Northern Arizona men in cross country next fall?

No. Next question.

19. Who is the men's D1 individual cross country national title favorite for next fall?

Based on his race execution from this past fall, I'd have to say Kiptoo and I feel pretty good about that. Kioko appears to be out of eligibility, but if Charles Hicks continues to ride this current wave of momentum he has into next fall, then he could realistically stop Kiptoo from ever winning a cross country national title...which is an absurd thought when you really think about it.

20. Who is the women's D1 individual cross country national title favorite for next fall?

I actually think this is pretty simple. In March of 2020, Mercy Chelangat took home gold at the NCAA XC Championships during a season where Orton wasn't at 100%. Then, this past fall, Chelangat settled for runner-up, losing only to Orton who was very clearly at 100%.

No active distance runner in the NCAA has beaten Chelangat in a race that is over 5000 meters long since an early-season rust-buster in the fall of 2020.