2024 UW Preview: Mia Barnett's Oregon Debut & Habtom Samuel vs Luke Houser

Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Jan 12, 2024
13 min read

Updated: Jan 14, 2024

Ladies and gentlemen...track is back.

This upcoming weekend will act as an appetizer of sorts for the rest of the season, giving NCAA distance fans plenty of interesting headlines while still leaving the door open for numerous developments in the national title and All-American conversations.

Below, we gave you a some pre-race analysis for each of the distance races taking place at the University of Washington this Saturday for the aptly-named, UW Preview. Here are the key races and matchups that you need to monitor tomorrow...

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Women's 800 Meters: Juliette Whittaker Makes Season Debut, Could Mia Barnett Make Oregon Debut?

Let's have an honest conversation: The women's 800 meters has the opportunity to either be really exciting or...kinda underwhelming. Allow me to explain.

Juliette Whittaker is one of the biggest and brightest young middle distance stars in the NCAA right now. And as such, the Cardinal sophomore, who is listed at TSR #7 in our preseason top-25 indoor track rankings, will enter Saturday's meet as the focal entry of this field. The Stanford superstar boasts a blistering 1:59 PR for the half-mile distance and was the runner-up finisher in that event at last year's indoor national meet.

Yes, Whittaker did fail to advance to the NCAA Outdoor Championships over 1500 meters last spring, but her mile prowess and overall strength is still tremendously impressive for someone who is still so young.

Last year, Whittaker toed the line for this exact same event at this exact same meet. There, she won with ease, running 2:02 (800) to easily secure gold. And when looking at the rest of this year's field, the only woman who can seemingly challenge this Cardinal ace is former Simon Fraser standout, Addy Townsend, a pro athlete who has run 2:01 for 800 meters.

And even then, Whittaker is the class of this field.

Juliette Whittaker at the 2023 USA Championships // Photo via Nate Lopez

The other contenders in this field, at least collegiately, will be Oregon's rising distance star, Maddy Elmore, and the former UCLA and Virginia runner, Mia Barnett.

Admittedly, we don't expect either Elmore or Barnett to significantly threaten Whittaker in the late stages of this race. Of course, Elmore has only gotten better since running 4:08 for 1500 meters last spring and has never toed the line for an 800-meter race.

What could be her ceiling in this kinda race?

As for Barnett, the newest Duck may finally make her debut in an Oregon singlet after a recent court ruling allowed multi-time transfer athletes to compete immediately after initially being restricted by the NCAA from doing so. And that, ladies and gentlemen, has now opened the door for a scary-god mile star to reenter our national discourse.

Admittedly, Barnett's 800-meter PR is "only" a mark of 2:06 and it's hard to know what her current state of middle distance fitness is given her lack of recent results (although she did run 9:12 for 3k unattached at Boston U. last month). Even so, it wouldn't be a total shock if Barnett came out with a bang and ran something along the lines of 2:04 or 2:05.

The catch, however, is that both Barnett and Elmore are also listed in the mile. If those two women choose to contest that event instead of the 800 meters, then my original assessment of this field being "underwhelming" may hold some truth, at least when it comes to top contenders and nationally competitive times.

Oregon's Dalia Frias, the Duke and (kinda?) UCLA transfer, is also able to compete as well given that aforementioned court ruling. And just like her teammates, she is also entered in the mile. Also, keep an eye on Marian Ledesma, a strong D2 talent from Western Washington who has a 2:07 PR. The Viking ace could be a very important name in the D2 All-American conversation later this winter.

*Men's 1000 Meters: Bove vs Erickson vs Palfrey vs A Whole Lotta Top-Tier Pro Runners

*NOTE: The original version of this article suggested that Bove, Erickson and Palfrey would run in the men's 800 meters field. However, the actual distance that they were entered was the men's 1000 meters.

We may be a collegiate distance running website, but when it comes to this field, the reality is that the pro athletes are the main headliners. Between Brandon Miller Craig Engels, Sam Ellis and the Ole Miss alum duo of John Rivera and Baylor Franklin, it'll be a surprise if a collegiate is able to come out with the victory.

Cal Poly's Davis Bove, as well as the Oregon duo of Matthew Erickson and Tomas Palfrey, are the three collegiates entered in this field. And when you look at the resume of each of these men, you'll find that they each carry a variety of different trends and skillsets.

Bove is arguably the most accomplished runner of the three, thriving as an upper-echelon miler with tremendous range. His 1:49 (800) PR is due to be reset. However, when it comes to this specific event, it's Matthew Erickson who has a clear and inarguable advantage.

Erickson had been a respectable middle distance runner over the last two years, but going into the 2023 outdoor track postseason, he had seemingly tapped out his ceiling as an 800-meter runner, holding a 1:48 PR. But then he ran 1:47 in the prelims of the West Regional Championships which was followed by an even more impressive PR of 1:46 in the finals!

The unexpected Oregon standout ended his season in the prelims of the men's 800 meters at the outdoor national meet, but our original projections as to what his potential was had to be scratched and recalibrated.

It's hard to know which version of Erickson we'll get tomorrow. If he extends his spring season momentum to the indoor oval, then he'll emerge as the top collegiate and maybe run something surprisingly quick.

As for Tomas Palfrey, he's run 1:48 for 800 meters, but that was back in 2021 when he was in Australia. The good news, however, is that he ran a 3:39 (1500) PR this past summer, meaning that his ability to build upon his fitness and produce fast times is still very much present. Now we'll just need to see if he can translate that to tomorrow's race.

It should also be noted that the Stanford quartet of Ky Robinson, Cole Sprout, Lex Young and Leo Young are all entered in the next-fastest section of the men's 1000 meters. However, they are also listed in the mile, an event that holds a far greater likelihood of them running in.

Women's Mile: Oregon's Top Women vs Carley Thomas

If the Oregon women actually end up fielding all of the athletes who they have in the entries, then distance running fans could be in store for a very entertaining mile race. I say that because the Ducks have Klaudia Kazimierska, Mia Barnett, Maddy Elmore and Dalias Frias all entered in this field.

Let's first start with Mia Barnett, someone who we have already briefly covered in the women's 800-meter preview, another event that she is entered in. The newest Oregon ace is now expected to be eligible for competition this winter after a recent court ruling allowed multi-time transfer athletes to compete immediately despite the NCAA's original bylaw stating otherwise.

If Barnett is in top form this Saturday, or at least close to it, then she should be a fascinating name to monitor. You could argue that this well-traveled distance talent is the best pure miler in this field, something that she has yet to put on full display (which isn't totally her fault).

Remember, the California native has run 4:08 for 1500 meters and is one of the more consistently great distance talents in that event area. She is tactically sound and fairly well-rounded in terms of her speed and strength.

And yet, despite that, we at least know a little bit more about Klaudia Kazimierka and her current fitness than we do in comparison to Barnett. The Polish middle distance standout found great success throughout last year, looking fantastic on the indoor oval with brilliant control of her fitness and later taking 4th over 1500 meters at the outdoor national meet.

After already knocking off the rust with a 4:37 mile effort, it would admittedly be a little surprising if Kazimierska toed the line for the mile, her primary event, two times before the middle of January. But if she does, then she would likely be the top betting favorite in Vegas...depending on how you feel about our next name.

Klaudia Kazimierska fends off top collegiates (1500m) at the 2023 Bryan Clay Invite // Photo via Josh Kutcher

We then come to Maddy Elmore, the fast-rising star who ran 8:50 for 3000 meters last month. She has been beyond fantastic since last spring, having gone from "exciting prospect" to "legitimate NCAA standout."

If Elmore's recent 3k performance is any indication of what's to come, then we could potentially see a crazy-fast mile time from her this weekend assuming that she doesn't run the 800 meters. And when you think about, attacking the mile feels like the next natural step for Elmore to take after running the 3k shortly after the cross country season and then ramping back up from break with a shorter effort.

In other words, when looking at this Oregon trio, Barnett is (maybe) the best pure miler, Kazimierska is the most proven miler and Elmore may be the most dangerous miler. I don't know if that made sense in your head, but it certainly did in mine.

As for Dalia Frias, we can't forget that she ran 4:35 for the mile in high school. Her first season at Duke was solid, but we know that she's capable of more. And while we don't necessarily know what kind of fitness she's in right now, the potential for her to run 4:39 or 4:40 seems somewhat reasonable.

That contingent of Ducks will be facing a handful of unattached runners and pros. They will also be battling Washington veteran, Carley Thomas. The Aussie middle distance runner will be on her home track, moving up in distance from her conventional half-mile event.

Thomas is a much better miler than some people may realize. She ran 4:36 in the mile last winter in her first-ever attempt at that distance. Since then, the Husky standout has primarily focused on the 800 meters, her specialty. And although the prelims have given Thomas challenges at the indoor and outdoor national meets, her raw talent is among the best of any 800-meter runner in the country.

I say that because Thomas, our TSR #24 runner in our preseason rankings, ran an absurdly fast time of 1:59.95 for 800 meters this past summer before running 9:05 for 3000 meters in Australia back in December! Oh, and she ran 2:37 for 1000 meters in August.

Over the last six months, Thomas hasn't just been on fire -- she's been elite. And while the long-time Washington star isn't as proven in the mile as her PAC-12-turned-BIG 10 rivals, her raw fitness from this summer may make her a massive challenge for Oregon's best women.

Men's Mile: Stanford & Then Everyone Else

The top section in the men's mile field will feature a variety of different names, but none bigger than the quartet from Palo Alto. I am, of course, talking about Ky Robinson, Cole Sprout, Lex Young and Leo Young.

Those same four men are also entered in the 800 meters, although it would come as quite the surprise to me if those Cardinal standouts dropped that far down in distance.

Ky Robinson is the clear and obvious favorite to emerge as the top collegiate -- and maybe even win the whole thing. He did, after all, run 3:55 in the mile at this same meet last year and there's no reason to believe that he can't run 3:54 this time around.

But as much as I'd like to offer in-depth analysis on what this race means for Robinson, I'm not sure that's necessary. The Aussie distance runner would need to run something unbelievably fast for me to view this as anything but a refinement of speed for the 5k megastar.

Ky Robinson stands on the podium at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships // Photo via Andrew LeMay

For Cole Sprout, it's a different story. This is someone who has struggled to stay healthy since the fall of 2022. He was very clearly not himself over the last year and that continued to be the case as recently as late November.

Of course, anyone who is familiar with Sprout's pedigree knows that when he's healthy, he's flat-out incredible. Do I expect to see that version of Sprout on Saturday? No, not necessarily, but I do think that this could be a good "get right" opportunity for the elder distance talent.

And then we have the Young twins.

I'll be completely honest...I have no idea what to expect from this duo. They obviously had historically great high school careers, but their cross country seasons also exhibited the need for more time to acclimate to the NCAA realm.

I could see Lex or Leo running as fast as 3:57 or as slow as 4:05. Maybe the latter is too conservative, but I am generally more cautious with freshmen in comparison to others. Either way, this kind of mile field could be a great segway to running a fast 3k in future weeks, a distance that may end up being their ideal event this winter.

Of course, the Stanford men aren't the only notable collegiates in this field.

Portland's Matt Strangio should almost definitely break up those four Stanford runners. He's a strong mile/1500-meter runner with a great aerobic base. The west coast standout has run times of 3:39 (1500), 3:59 (mile) and 13:30 (5k), the latter of which almost went down last month after running 13:31 for 5000 meters.

Matt Strangio (left) crosses the line at the 2023 Bryan Clay Invite en route to 3:39 (1500) mark // Photo via Josh Kutcher

Strangio can have explosive moments where he is incredibly challenging to shake late in certain races. His mix of speed and strength, and the fact that he's already near peak form, makes him a key name to monitor. His mile PR is also due for a refresh, although it's unclear by how much.

The New Mexico duo of Ethan Brouw and Sam Field are the final two collegiates rounding out the top section. They aren't expected to be major players in this race, but one of them may surprise you and potentially scare the four-minute barrier.

Women's 3k: Can Washington Keep Up With Bunnage & Jenks?

This race is pretty straightforward as far as previewing and analysis is concerned. That's because Stanford rookie Amy Bunnage is very clear the best collegiate in this field.

No, not just because of her absurdly fast times from Australia -- 8:51 for 3000 meters and 15:21 for 5000 meters -- but also because she was very clearly more fit than every other collegiate in this field this past fall (despite an "off" day at the national meet).

Bunnage will have a solid field of athletes to race with, including a couple of Brooks Beasts pros and fellow teammate, Lucy Jenks. But even then, this field doesn't necessarily scream that it's going to be crazy fast. It'll be honest, but I could see Bunnage establishing a comfortable gap and maintaining that through the finish line.

Amy Bunnage crosses the finish line at the 2023 Virginia Invite to place 6th // Photo via David Hicks

Of course, Jenks could make things interesting. Despite a few inconsistencies, this Stanford veteran has been great over the last nine months or so. The Cardinal veteran ran 15:33 for 5000 meters last spring, holds a 9:04 (3k) PR and put together a 2023 cross country season which briefly allowed her to crack our top-50 rankings.

The combination of Bunnage and Jenks is a strong one, leaving the Washington women in this field with a big task on their hands. Tori Herman, Ella Borsheim, Chloe Foerster, Haley Herberg, India Weir and Julia David-Smith are all of the Huskies who are expected to toe the line on Saturday for the women's 3k.

As a collective unit, that's a great group of runners. However, trying to find an individual to legitimately battle with Bunnage and Jenks in the late stages of Saturday's race is easier said than done. That said, I do like the potential of Foerster. She made the sophomore leap this past fall with a great postseason and could carry that momentum into tomorrow.

Men's 3k: Luke Houser vs Habtom Samuel vs Evans Kiplagat

The men's 3k at the UW Preview could potentially be the best race that we see in the NCAA this weekend. Not just for the distance events, but overall, too.

The New Mexico duo of Habtom Samuel and Evans Kiplagat are set to toe the line for the men's 3000-meter field tomorrow, bringing with them phenomenal personal bests and two very successful cross country seasons (to varying extents).

Kiplagat is someone who can absolutely play a key role in how tomorrow's race plays out. He's not favored to compete for the win, but after a 33rd place finish at the NCAA XC Championships and a 13:30 PR for 5000 meters at the Boston U. Season Opener, this Kenyan rookie could very easily throw down something incredibly quick this weekend.

Of course, trying to topple some of the other men in this field will require Kiplagat to step up to a new tier, something that may require a year of experience before he gets there.

We all know how talented Habtom Samuel is. He's run 13:13 for 5000 meters and 27:20 for 10,000 meters. He was the runner-up finisher at the NCAA XC Championships this past fall fall and he ran 13:14 (5k) on the indoor oval shortly thereafter.

In terms of raw aerobic-centric talent, Samuel may be the single-best talent in this field. However, the 3000 meters is very clearly a step down in distance for this New Mexico megastar. His current 3k PR of 7:52 will likely be reset this weekend, but...by how much?

Habtom Samuel (middle) competing at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships // Photo via Andrew LeMay

At the highest levels of competition, the 3k requires a bit of explosiveness and turnover. And traditionally, true long distance talents aren't always able to effectively respond to gear changes, surges or late-race pushes (although that's by no means always the case).

But Samuel hasn't truly had a chance to display what he can do in an event like this. And frankly, his unreal level of raw talent should carry him to a possible national qualifying time (or something close to it). With standout pro runners like Kieran Lumb and Sam Prakel also in this field, the expectation is that this race will be quick from the gun -- and that theoretically benefits Samuel.

However, you could potentially argue that Luke Houser is the best overall 3k runner, collegiately, that this field has to offer.

The Washington star is best known for his 1500-meter and mile prowess, holding a personal best of 3:52 in the latter event and winning the mile national title last winter. But we should also recognize that Houser had a fantastic 2023 cross country season despite a tough ending. And tactically, he's better than a lot of the men also listed in these entries.

Houser's 3k personal best of 7:48 is very strong, but truthfully, it could be faster. I think he earns a new PR on Saturday and emerges as the top collegiate. In my eyes, his skillset favors the 3k more than Habtom Samuel. And if I'm wrong, then I will happily eat crow.