2024 NCAA D1 XC Championship Preview: BYU Men or Oklahoma State Men? BYU Women or NAU Women? Can Graham Blanks Defend? Plus, Lemngole vs Kosgei vs Olemomoi

Written by Rachel Hickey & Mike McKean

Edits & additional commentary via Garrett Zatlin

It all goes down tomorrow...

The NCAA D1 XC Championships are set to be a thriller. The battle for both team titles appears to be extremely close while individual gold could be won by a variety of men and women.

Below, we asked two of our Division One contributors for their thoughts on what they're expecting during tomorrow's season finale. Let's jump into it, shall we?

Men's Analysis

BYU and Oklahoma State are expected to battle for the men's team title on Saturday. Who are you taking? What/who will be the defining factor of this race if BYU wins? What about Oklahoma State?

Rachel: I think I have to take BYU based on how well they packed up at the BIG 12 XC Championships. Casey Clinger was a huge factor in their upset win over Oklahoma State. If he can pull that off again in Madison, Wisconsin with the Cougar pack in the hunt, then I think they have the pieces needed for a national title.

For Oklahoma State, the biggest “x-factor” might be Fouad Messaoudi. I watched the BIG 12 XC Championships firsthand, and the scoring truly came down to OSU’s fifth runner. That was/is expected to be Messaoudi, but faded too much in the final kilometer in what turned out to be an "off" day for him. If he can put together the back-half of a race, then OSU will be the better team on virtually any given day.

Of course, all it takes for BYU is one Cowboy to have an “off” day as we saw during conference weekend. For me, personally, I won’t be surprised if the Cougars pull it off again.

Mike: For BYU to pull off the win this weekend, they’re going to need another great outing from their fifth man. The Cougars are littered with options at their five spot, with likely candidates coming from athletes like Lucas Bons, Davin Thompson or Aiden Troutner.

BYU taking down Oklahoma State at the BIG 12 XC Championships was in large part due to a breakout race from Bons. If the men from Provo want to repeat that result from the BIG 12 XC Championships, then they’ll need one of Bons, Thompson and Troutner to keep the gap close to their 2-3-4 runners (Nokes, Creed Thompson and Corrigan).

When you look at Oklahoma State’s biggest “x factor,” I agree with Rachel that they’ll need Messaoudi to step up in a huge way. However, it’s not just him who they’ll need more out of.

Perhaps an even more compelling storyline in this race is what version of Laban Kipkemboi the Pokes get. The redshirt freshman star got his regular season off to a hot start with a 3rd place result at the Cowboy Jamboree and a runner-up result at the Weis-Crockett Invitational.

After earning silver at the Midwest Regional XC Championships this past weekend, his 19th place result at the BIG 12 XC Championships feels flukey. If Oklahoma State gets the best version of Kipkemboi, then their odds of winning the title skyrocket.

How many men's individual national title contenders are there and who are they? How do you expect this race to play out and who do you think most benefits from that predicted racing style?

Rachel: Realistically, I see three men in the national title conversation, but I am willing to open it up to four.

Graham Blanks (Harvard), Habtom Samuel (New Mexico) and Brian Musau (Oklahoma State) seem to be the, "Big Three” ahead of this weekend’s matchup. However, based on past results, injury or not, I am not willing to completely rule out Parker Wolfe of North Carolina.

We know Wolfe can be unbelievably clutch when it matters most. And despite his pesky foot injury, I think we would be foolish to completely rule him out of the conversation. 

Regardless, I do think that this will be an aggressive race from the gun which I would imagine benefits Blanks who was very good at matching paces and moves in his 2023 title race.

Musau is not one to set the early pace, but Samuel and Texas Tech’s Solomon Kipchoge might. Look for Musau and the Cowboy contingent to push later in the race as is the OSU style.

Mike: This feels like a four-man race to me. Of course, I’m talking about Habtom Samuel, Brian Musau, Solomon Kipchoge and Graham Blanks.

I truly feel like this race is going to be aggressive from the gun. With strength-based stars like Kipchoge and Samuel at the helm, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see either of these two look to drop the majority of the field early.

That being said, all four of these runners are far too talented to not go with a hot pace. Could we see a similar tactic from Samuel that we saw at Pre-Nationals earlier this year? There, the Lobo ace made an aggressive move with 1k to go, dropping the entire field (including Blanks).

That move felt intentional in a way that I can’t seem to shake as we enter the national meet. In any way you see this race being played out, I do feel like a majority of the could-be tactics/strategies will favor Habtom Samuel. 

How many men's teams do you think can realistically make it onto the podium on Saturday? Who are those teams and why?

Rachel: I honestly think that there are six or seven teams who will be in the hunt for the four podium spots on Saturday. Let’s break it down, shall we?

Oklahoma State and BYU are the obvious two title contenders with OSU having a slight edge over the Cougars (although I do have the maybe-not-so-unpopular opinion of sticking with BYU to the end). These two teams are truly in a conversation of their own and it is difficult to see another team entering their tier.

After that, the battle gets really, REALLY interesting, though.

Arkansas, New Mexico, Northern Arizona and Iowa State all have the pieces needed to snag a trophy in Madison this weekend. The question is, who will have the most pieces fall into place to do it?

Arkansas and New Mexico are teams spearheaded by phenomenal front-running and low-stick potency. They do, however, have some gaps in their middle-to-backend portions of their lineup. That, in turn, opens up opportunities for other teams to potentially play spoiler.

NAU and Iowa State are both just very solid teams. While these two squads may lack the front-end firepower of their fellow podium contenders, the Lumberjacks and Cyclones have the stability to fit into the gaps potentially left by the Lobos’ and Razorbacks’ fourth and fifth runners. 

I, for one, cannot WAIT to watch this race play out in real time. 

Mike: My mind is telling me that this is a five-team battle for the four podium spots. However, my heart is saying that I need to include a couple of sleepers, those being Stanford and NAU. 

My picks for the podium come down to three tiers. Let’s walk through those: 

Tier A (Juggernauts):

Oklahoma State and BYU. Those two squads are by far the class of the field. The showdown between these two after a stellar battle at the BIG 12 XC Championships is simply must-watch television. 

Tier B (Contenders)

Arkansas, Iowa State and New Mexico. The battle between these three teams feels just as exciting to me as the battle between Oklahoma State and BYU. The gap between each squad feels incredibly slim and there’s no telling what order these teams will finish among the 3rd, 4th and 5th place positions. Both the Razorbacks and Lobos are led by star low-sticks who feel destined to earn top-10 (maybe top-five?) finishes, individually.

Admittedly, there’s a very small margin for error with Arkansas as they’ve displayed a large drop-off from their fourth to fifth runners throughout the fall. When it comes to New Mexico, we’ve yet to see each runner have an “on” day at the same time this season. If they all hit on Saturday and are at their best, don’t be surprised if they find themselves finishing in the top-two.

For Iowa State, it seems clear. They have simply shown elite consistency throughout the year and are spoiled with depth. They haven’t had an “off” day yet and we don’t see that changing this weekend. This team’s floor feels incredibly high, even if their ceiling may be capped at a 4th place finish.

Tier C (Sleepers)

Stanford and Northern Arizona. I’d be mistaken if I underestimated a Coach Mike Smith squad at the NCAA XC Championships. Their season may not have gone like we’ve expected it to, but you have to feel confident in the Lumberjacks peaking at the perfect time.

As far as Stanford goes, this is the same group that finished 3rd at the most competitive regular season meet of the year (Pre-Nationals). They have run extremely well in highly competitive fields this year and that deserves respect heading into Saturday.

Georgetown, Ole Miss, Tulane, Tulsa, Virginia Tech and Wyoming are men's teams who have qualified for the national meet, but are not listed in our top-25 team rankings. Which team out of that group do you expect to earn the best finish at the NCAA XC Championships?

Rachel: I love this question!

I think each of these teams offer something different and have very different reasons why each qualified for the national meet. That being said, I would be inclined to favor either Wyoming or Tulane to earn a more favorable placement on Saturday.

The Wyoming Cowboys have had a quietly underrated season, in my opinion. They did, after all, win the Roy Griak Invite, place 4th at the Joe Piane Invite and post an impressive 12th place team finish at Pre-Nationals.

I'll admit, their postseason efforts haven't been as strong, but the Cowboys still have all of the pieces to make something happen on Saturday. 

As for Tulane, I am encouraged by the fact that their top-three runners seemed to tackle the 10k distance easier than the 8k distance. Jack Jennings, Bernard Cheruiyot and Illia Kunin provide great scoring potency and experience to the Green Wave squad. As long as their last two scorers don't complete plummet to the backend of this results, then this is a team that I could see turning some heads.

Mike: I have to ride the hot hand here and go with the Virginia Tech Hokies. Their run at the Southeast Regional XC Championships was flat-out incredible. It feels like this squad has been gaining an incredible amount of momentum…and fast.

Led by star low-stick George Couttie, the Hokies seems to be peaking at the right time. While others in this group have gotten worse as the season has progressed, the opposite has been true for the men from Blacksburg, Virginia.

Not to mention, the scoring potency that they’ve received from freshmen Nicholas Kipchirchir and William Winter is a massive confidence boost heading into Saturday.

Who is your men's "sleeper" pick among teams?

Rachel: I am going to go with the North Carolina Tar Heels as my “sleeper” men’s team pick as an outside podium threat.

UNC is spearheaded by phenomenal front-runners in Parker Wolfe and Ethan Strand, both of whom will almost surely secure top-half individual All-American honors. With a lethal 1-2 punch like that, any team suddenly becomes a threat on the national stage. 

For the Tar Heels though, the bigger impact runners will be their 3-4-5 scorers who, admittedly, have been fairly far back in bigger races this fall (although Colton Sands has been sneaky-good).

Sands, Will Coogan and Patrick Anderson will have to fill in some gaps to be able to support the firepower of Wolfe and Strand. Maybe it’s a little far-fetched or hopeful thinking, but I fully believe that they can pull off something great in Madison, Wisconsin on Saturday...and wouldn’t that be entertaining?

Mike: Walk with me here -- I’m going with the Alabama Crimson Tide. 

Yes, I know about their prior national meet woes and I know that they haven’t had the best version of Hillary Cheruiyot this season. However, you cannot deny how talented the trio of Victor Kiprop, Dismus Lokira and Dennis Kipruto have been this season. None of those three Crimson Tide low-sticks have had a poor result this season. The jump to 10k is also a huge advantage to them as well.

Let’s also not forget that Hillary Cheruiyot, at his best, is an All-American talent. The ‘Bama veteran has not been at his best this year, but even if they can get him at 80%, then he can provide great scoring potency. 

Also, can we put some respect on Hudson Hurst’s name?

Alabama has never been known for their depth as they’ve recently struggled with the backend of their scoring. That being said, Hurst’s 21st place result at the SEC XC Championships is a quality result. That’s not something that we’ve seen from a Crimson Tide fifth man in a while.

I know I’m going out on a limb here, but with a field as large as the NCAA XC Championships, those low-sticks are going to play a huge role in team scoring. With Alabama’s top-three feeling like, arguably, guaranteed All-American locks, don’t be surprised if they shock the field with a podium effort.

Who is your men's "sleeper" pick for an individual All-American honor?

Rachel: I love Camren Todd of Utah State for this answer.

Todd has only run three races this fall, leaving more questions than definitive answers on his fitness, truthfully. He opened his season with a win at the Lehigh Paul Short Run, certainly turning some heads in his direction, then went on to place 17th at Pre-Nationals in a deeply competitive field.

After not racing the Mountain West meet, Todd returned for the Mountain Regional XC Championships with a 14th place finish to secure an NCAA XC Championship bid. 

Todd has great experience on the national stage, having placed as high as 42nd in years past. I’ve always said experience is everything in cross country racing, as demonstrating poise in big races is what leads to even bigger results. Personally, I think Todd is ready to take that jump into the individual All-American contingent.

Mike: Death, taxes and Santiago Prosser showing up in November.

I have to go with "Mr. Reliable," here. Prosser's ability to show up at the national meet is irrefutable with his past two performances at the NCAA XC Championships which resulted in 19th and 21st place finishes.

I know what you may be thinking, "What has Prosser has done this season that is indicative of earning an All-American honor this weekend?" Well, here’s why I’m so confident: Prosser’s fall progression over the past three seasons has been eerily similar to what he's done in 2024.

In 2022, he finished 33rd at the Nuttycombe Invite, 17th at the Mountain Regional XC Championships and then wrapped the season with a 19th place All-American finish at the national meet. In 2023, he finished 29th at the Nuttycombe Invite, 15th at the Mountain Regional XC Championships and then 21st at the national meet.

And this season? He has finished 25th at the Pre-Nationals and 12th at the Mountain Regional XC Championships. See where I’m headed? Prosser is known to peak at the national meet and there's no reason to think that he won't do so again.

Women's Analysis

BYU and Northern Arizona are expected to battle for the women's team title on Saturday. What/who will be the defining factor of this race if BYU wins? What about Northern Arizona?

Rachel: Despite some rumors that Jenna Hutchins may or may not toe the line on Saturday, I am still backing the Cougars all the way.

I might be biased since I watched them win their second-consecutive BIG 12 title in person. However, I would also argue that I have every reason to be biased! Ask anyone who knows BYU: The BIG 12 XC Championships was not their best day, and the Cougar women still dominated against West Virginia, a team who has quickly risen into the podium conversation.

Oh, and for an added bonus?

They did so without Hutchins even being a scorer for them.

Riley Chamberlain has been one of the biggest difference-makers for the BYU women as she seems to be peaking perfectly and has emerged as a great low-stick to support the firepower of Lexy Halladay-Lowry. To be frank, I don’t even think the Cougars even need to have a perfect (or near-perfect) day to win with their current depth.

To play devil’s advocate with myself, NAU’s "x-factor" has been the return of Elise Stearns who offers firepower to an already-deep lineup. Even so, I am not sure the remaining players on the Lumberjacks' roster will fill any gaps that BYU might open up -- but I hope NAU rises to that challenge.

Mike: When it comes down to who’s going to win the team title on the women’s side, both NAU and BYU can make a convincing case when deciding a winner.

The Cougars feel like a riskier pick, but their top-tier talent is undeniable, possessing multiple runners who can earn All-American honors. For the Lumberjacks, they feel like a safe option based on their depth. With so many options to fill in the backend, their floor feels incredibly high. 

Quite simply, BYU has the higher ceiling, but NAU has the higher floor.

For NAU, the biggest x-factor comes in the return of Elise Stearns. To get back a legitimate low-stick who can be a top-half All-American talent is a luxury we weren’t sure that they’d have. If Stearns can compete with the Cougars' top scorer and combat those points, then they have a great shot of winning.

When it comes to BYU, of course, a lot will depend on the pending status of Jenna Hutchins. If healthy, then she’s an All-American-type talent.

That being said, if the Cougars are without Hutchins, then a lot is going to fall on the shoulders of Riley Chamberlain and Carmen Alder. If that junior duo continues to be the version of themselves that we’ve seen so far this postseason, then they may not even need Hutchins to pull off the win.

This matchup truly feels like a toss-up which makes Saturday’s battle all the more exciting. 

How many women's individual national title contenders are there and who are they? How do you expect this race to play out and who do you think most benefits from that predicted racing style?

Rachel: I see four women truly being in the battle for the NCAA individual title: Doris Lemongole (Alabama), Hilda Olemomoi (Florida), Pamela Kosgei (New Mexico) and Ceili McCabe (West Virginia). 

And if you think the men’s race will be aggressive from the start, then the women’s race will be downright violent.

These four women are all known to prefer a hot early pace, with each instigating pace-pushes in all their respective races this season. Add in the fact that McCabe will have teammate Joy Naukot likely helping with the early pace-setting efforts, and it is hard to see a way this race isn’t very hot early-on.

As for who benefits? Well, all of them, actually. I would not be surprised to see this race truly come down to the wire between any combination (or all) of this quartet of women. 

Mike: In all honestly, it feels like the individual crown is going to belong to one of Doris Lemngole (Alabama), Pamela Kosgei (New Mexico) or Hilda Olemomoi (Florida).

I’m in full agreement with Rachel on this pace being violent from the start. I envision both Lemngole and Olemomoi leading the charge with Kosgei following close behind. It’s hard to imagine the rest of the field being able to handle the pace from these three.

As far as who has the biggest advantage, you could make the case for all of them. Pamela Kosgei is undefeated so far this year. In her last appearance in Madison, Wisconsin, she performed admirably despite her inexperience. The Lobo freshman showed poise as she patiently sat on the aggressive pace from Olemomoi before ultimately making a defiant move.

With that being said, Kosgei is entering her first NCAA Championship and there is added pressure that comes with that. How will she handle expectations on the biggest stage of the year? Time will tell. 

When you look at both Hilda Olemomoi and Doris Lemngole, they both bring experience to the table. Between the two, I have to give the slight edge to Lemngole who is the top returner from last year's national meet.

Ultimately, no matter what racing style we see on Saturday, it feels like Lemngole will be well-prepared to handle it.

How many women's teams do you think can realistically make it onto the podium on Saturday? Who are those teams and why?

Rachel: Is it crazy to confidently say seven? I firmly believe there are seven.

We’ve already established that the title race is primarily between BYU and NAU. However, the race for 3rd and 4th place will be an absolute bloodbath.

Oregon, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Providence and West Virginia have all shown on one or more occasions that they have what it takes to leave Madison, Wisconsin with some hardware. Honestly, I am not sure which will have the upper-hand on Saturday.

The Oregon women finally showed all their cards and seem to have the most scoring potency to offer of this group with Maddy Elmore and Silan Ayyildiz providing lethal firepower up front. But truthfully, each of these teams have their own firepower to offer (besides maybe Notre Dame, who benefits from a more holistic approach). 

Mike: I’m with Rachel here. If it’s crazy to think that there are seven podium-contending teams, you’ll think I’m insane for saying I could see eight.

Much akin to the men’s race, it feels like there is a large gap between the top-two of BYU and NAU and the rest of the field. However, your guess is as good as mine when it comes to who will finish in the third and fourth podium spots.

I could see six different teams earning a podium finish: Oregon, Notre Dame, Washington, West Virginia, Providence and Georgetown. And when you look at teams who seem to be getting better each week, look no further than West Virginia and Oregon.

The Ducks’ emergence of Maddy Elmore and Silan Ayyildiz providing one of the most lethal 1-2 punches in the NCAA is a massive development in the podium race. If we can see Klaudia Kazimierska replicate the success that she had at the BIG 10 XC Championships, then this squad honestly feels like a lock for a podium finish. 

For the Mountaineers, the backend of their scoring has improved drastically as the season has progressed. Ceili McCabe and Joy Naukot are upper-echelon stars, but the rise of Sarah Tait, Emily Bryce and Madison Trippett is worth noting. Both Providence and Georgetown have also provided elite consistency this fall. Each squad presents star low-sticks and sneaky-good depth.

The Fighting Irish women remind me a lot of the Iowa State men -- they’ve simply been great all year. They feel like a safe choice for a podium finish despite their youth’s inexperience on the national stage. If they get the best version of Emily Covert on Saturday, then the podium has a spot for Notre Dame.

Lastly, you can’t count out the Washington women. It feels like they’ve been slightly regressing since their hot start to the regular season, but the talent that their roster possesses is easily comparable to the other squads in this conversation. 

Arkansas, Boston College, Harvard, Lipscomb, Michigan State, Texas and Toledo are women's teams who have qualified for the national meet, but are not listed in our top-25 team rankings. Which team out of that group do you expect to earn the best finish at the NCAA XC Championships?

Rachel: It seems foolish not to immediately think of Arkansas. You can always count on the historically dominant program to find some way to pull a better-than-expected performance out. 

Obviously, the Razorbacks simply do not have the same depth and firepower that they have had in recent years. However, Paityn Noe, Sydney Thorvaldson and Mia Cochren have certainly made a case for Arkansas being a sleeper in the postseason.

The Razorbacks did narrowly place 4th at the SEC XC Championships to a ranked Florida team, and still won the (admittedly, not as strong) South Central region over the Texas Longhorns. Noe has been peaking perfectly this fall and will provide a great low-stick score for Arkansas.

But speaking of Texas, I would not count them out, either.

At the South Central meet, the Longhorns fell just one point shy of beating the Razorbacks with great middle-lineup stability. While the Longhorns won’t have the same firepower as Arkansas, I would not be surprised to see them shock a few extra teams in Madison, Wisconsin on Saturday.

Mike: I might be showing some bias here, but as a former athlete for Ohio University, I feel inclined to show some love to the mid-majors.

The Toledo women are my pick and a large reason for that is because of the depth that they’ve shown throughout the year. Yes, Mercy Kinyanjui is a legitimate All-American threat who is going to provide great value as a low-stick. But how about Laura Nicholson emerging as a secondary low-stick behind Kinyanjui? 

The Rocket veteran’s 6th place result at the Great Lakes Regional XC Championships was easily her best performance of the year and it seems like she’s peaking perfectly. The same can be said about Lou Trois and Lianna Surtz.

The Toledo women are led by a freshman low-stick, but the scoring of their 2-3-4 runners comes in the form of upperclassmen. On the biggest stage of the year, I feel confident in those veterans stepping up.  

Who is your women's "sleeper" pick among teams?

Rachel: Depending on how we are defining a “sleeper” pick, I am going to claim two teams and explain each pick: the Washington Huskies and the Florida State Seminoles.

Washington is my sleeper podium team (if they can even be classified as that) as this is a squad that has shown bright flashes of greatness throughout the season. The Nuttycombe Invite team champions, the Huskies have a loaded lineup with great depth that, on a day where everything goes right, could challenge for the last podium spot.

At one point this fall, the Huskies were ranked among our top-three teams and I can’t say I would be too surprised to see them climb their way back into that tier with veteran talents such as Chloe Foerester, Maeve Stiles, Julia David-Smith, Sophie O’Sullivan and Amina Maatoug.

All it takes is for one of those women to be the spark plug for the Huskies to round into their best form.

We then move to my second sleeper pick, Florida State, who I simply feel has had a quietly underrated fall season.

Bieke Schipperen and Agnes McTighe have been pleasant surprises this fall and have provided great low-stick potential for this squad on big stages. Brooke Mullins, the transfer from Drake, adds NCAA Championship experience as she qualified as an individual in 2023. She bolsters FSU's middle-lineup stability enough for me to see them punching above their weight on Saturday.

Mike: My sleeper team has to be the NC State Wolfpack.

If we’re being honest, this would not have been my pick prior to the Southeast Regional XC Championships. I know we shouldn’t put much stock into regional meets, but to see the Wolfpack bounce back after a horrendous ACC XC Championships showed a lot of resilience.

And quite frankly, I have full trust in the 1-2 punch of Grace Hartman and Hannah Gapes. They have both been stellar all season long and it feels like the backend of their scoring group is peaking at the right time. 

They will, admittedly, need another great performance from Brooke Rauber and the freshmen duo of Bethany Michalak and Ellie Shea. However, if there’s any coach who can bring that out of an inexperienced group, it’s Coach Laurie Henes. 

Who is your women's "sleeper" pick for an individual All-American honor? Explain why.

Rachel: Possibly a hot take: I’m going to go with Regina Mpigachai of Northern Colorado. 

This mid-major standout has really come into her own this fall, most recently culminating in a 3rd place finish at the Mountain regional meet. If you were to look at her TFRRS profile, Mpigachai has impressive range of 2:04 (800), 4:16 (1500) and 16:12 (5k) on the track. She has also displayed relative consistency this fall (despite her very flukey 61st place finish at the BIG Sky XC Championships).

While the regional meets truthfully do not hold too much stock in our eyes, I do believe that Mpigachai's season as a whole (again, outside of her conference meet result) demonstrates that she will be ready to make the jump into the All-American contingent.

Mike: I’m going with Maelle Porcher of Iowa State here. 

It feels like she has been residing just outside of our TSR top-50 rankings throughout the entirety of her 2024 fall campaign. That, of course, is not to say that she hasn’t made it hard to leave her off that list.

The Cyclone junior has displayed elite consistency throughout the fall and has truly yet to have a “bad” day. With a 16th place finish at the Nuttycombe Invitational paired with a 16th place result at Pre-Nationals, it’s clear that Porcher can contend with the best on a course that’s going to feel very familiar for her.

The vast improvement from 2023 and the increase in aerobic fitness is too hard for me to ignore. Look for the Cyclone ace to contend with the nation’s best for the third time this season on the Thomas Zimmer Championship Course.