2024 Bryan Clay Invitational Preview & Predictions (Part Two): Can Samuel Be Stopped? How Fast Will Olemomoi Run? Michaela Rose Returns to 800m & Whitmarsh vs Ferguson vs Khan vs Kipyego vs McLear

As the athletes racing in the 10k and steeplechase prepare for tonight, we wanted to get you a meet preview for the men's and women's 5k and 800-meter battles taking place on Friday! And don't worry, our final preview, specifically for the 1500 meters, will be coming tomorrow.

If you haven't already, be sure to check out our preview and picks for the 10,000 meters and the steeplechase. And if you simply want our collegiate predictions for this article, then you can click here to find those picks.

With that, let's begin...

NOTE: Heat sheets for the 800 meters were not released before crafting this preview.

Women's 5k: Could Olemomoi Go Under Her 15:17 (5k) PR?

The women's 5k at the Bryan Clay Invite feels like a pretty straightforward field, at least for the collegians, that is. That's because, among the top NCAA contenders in this race, Alabama's Hilda Olemomoi looks like the clear and obvious favorite to take home top collegiate honors.

Very few women have been as consistent as Olemomoi has throughout her career. She is no stranger to running fast times, she thrives in aerobic-centric races and she's just flat-out great. And now, as she prepares for Friday's race, she'll be tasked with racing against a few key pro runners.

However, for as good as some of these ladies are, Olemomoi isn't too far off from the top pro women in this field. I'm not saying that she's going to win, but she'll be able to chase some talented names who aren't going to leave her in no man's land.

For that reason, I see Olemomoi improving upon her current 15:17 (5k) PR, a mark which she has run three separate times. The Crimson Tide ace is due for a personal best reset and if I had to guess, she'll run around 15:13 or 15:14 tomorrow night.

There are a large handful of other collegians in the invite section of this event who could be in store for a big performance. However, in my eyes, the women who are most likely to throw down a top time are Gracelyn Larkin and maybe Sydney Thorvaldson and Lucy Jenks.

Larkin, a New Mexico transfer who has found scattered success at Northern Arizona, is a fantastic 5k runner. In fact, when she's at her best, Larkin's 5k times can make her competitive with most All-Americans. She does, after all, hold a huge 15:23 mark at that distance from last summer.

In the first quarter of 2024, Larkin has been good, but she hasn't necessarily replicated the same high-octane firepower that she flexed in the latter-half of 2023. Even so, this is someone who ran 15:34 for 5000 meters on the indoor oval this past winter. And although we wish her recent 10k effort was faster, I still think a sub-15:30 (5k) mark is possible for this Lumberjack ace come Friday.

Lucy Jenks (Stanford) and Sydney Thorvaldson (Arkansas) are two women are simply really great runners -- and there's not much more analysis to be had. Both ladies have emerged as nationally competitive names over the last year and they have both found a foothold over the 5000-meter distance. The former has run 15:33 for this event while Thorvaldson has run 15:41.

On the track, both Jenks and Thorvaldson are probably favored to qualify for the national meet, although they aren't among the first eight women someone who would list to secure All-American honors come June. That, however, could change for Thorvaldson who looked great en route to a recent 32:36 (10k) PR.

On paper, Florida's Amelia Mazza-Downie, yet another former New Mexico runner, should actually be competitive with someone like Hilda Olemomoi. However, since joining the Gators, Mazza-Downie has not been in top form, likely due to an injury from the fall months. Instead of competing for a top collegiate honor or a new PR, tomorrow's race will be all about getting back on track and building some momentum in her build up to June.

Other women such as Juliet Cherubet (Texas Tech), Ali Upshaw (New Mexico), Nicola Jansen (New Mexico) and maybe even Silan Ayyildiz (Oregon) could be primed for a breakout 5k race. And although the latter name is probably the most accomplished overall distance runner of this four-person group, I could see Texas Tech's Juliet Cherubet walking away with the fastest 5k time of that quartet.

Men's 5k: Habtom Samuel vs Every Other NCAA Entrant

Let's not make the analysis for Habtom Samuel more challenging than it needs to be.

This New Mexico freshman is simply incredible. After running 26:53 for 10,000 meters in March, it's hard to see any attached collegian in this field coming remotely close to the freshman from Eritrea. With a 13:13 (5k) PR and a small handful of pro runners in this field, Samuel should emerge as the top NCAA runner on Friday.

But...how fast will he run?

Truthfully, it's hard to say. But if you look at the strength-based names in this field, you'll find that many of them like to push the pace in these kinds of settings. And given how fit Samuel has proven to be over the last month, a sub-13:10 (5k) clocking seems entirely realistic.

Behind him, however, is where things get fun.

Oklahoma State's Brian Musau is probably the next-most talented attached collegian in this field. He did, after all, run 7:38 (3k) this past winter in addition to running 3:55 in the mile twice and earning two All-American honors (one relay, one individual).

However, Musau is undoubtedly moving up from his ideal distance. The newest Cowboy star has yet to contest the 5000 meters at the NCAA level and his best mark prior to coming to Stillwater, Oklahoma (per World Athletics) was 13:54.

The good news is that pretty much everything that we saw from Musau during the fall and winter months suggests that he is FAR better in the 5k than that above time would suggest. In fact, on a good day, I don't think it would be ridiculous to say that he could crack the 13:20 barrier.

However, compared to a large handful of other collegians who are entered in this race, Musau is far less established and proven in this event.

The Arkansas duo of Patrick Kiprop and Kirami Yego will almost certainly have a presence at the front of this race (as they always seemingly do). The Razorbacks have a tendency to be aggressive pace pushers who often attempt to control the race from the front. I wouldn't at all be surprised if they did something similar on Friday.

Of course, the end result matters more than the tactics. And while neither Kiprop and Yego have had any poor races in 2024, they have also had mixed levels of success with the potential for greater results being left on the table.

In terms of skillset, Alabama's Victor Kiprop is very similar to his Arkansas counterparts. However, throughout last year, this Crimson Tide veteran showcased greater understanding of tactics, positioning and when to make his moves.

Yes, we'll admit, most of his 2024 indoor track season was somewhat underwhelming. Even so, the end to his winter campaign and his recent 10k success at the Stanford Invite are all very positives signs for Kiprop.

When it comes to the other men in this field, almost all of them are roughly on par with each other as far as their current fitness/talent level is concerned. Between guys like Florian Le Pallec (Butler), Jesse Hamlin (Butler), Romain Legendre (Adams State), Chandler Gibbens (Kansas), Said Mechaal (Iowa State), Carter Solomon (Notre Dame), Joey Nokes (BYU), Marco Langon (Villanova) and a few others, you could put those men in any order for this race and I wouldn't be surprised.

However, there's one name in particular who I will be fascinated to watch.

I am, of course, talking about Gonzaga's Wil Smith.

This Bulldog veteran has been great over his career, but it's also clear that he has taken a major step forward this year. Smith was the 9th place finisher at the 2023 Nuttycombe Invite and narrowly settled for 2nd place at the Stanford Invite en route to a huge 28:04 (10k) PR.

When Smith is feeling his best, he is VERY challenging to defeat. In fact, he has proven that his ceiling reaches higher than any of the men who I just listed in that last group. But while I don't doubt his ability to beat top names and run fast times, having him do so more consistently will be the key to him having greater success on the national stage in June.

Women's 800m: Can Michaela Rose Go Sub-1:59?

Before I begin, I must preface this section by saying that the actual heat sheets for the men's and women's 800-meter fields are not out yet. The accepted entries are out, but not the heats, making it very challenging to comb through the library of names who are entered in this event.

However, there was one name who stood out like a sore thumb: Michaela Rose.

The 800-meter superstar is returning to her ideal distance after concluding an impressive indoor track season with a silver medal on the national meet. And yet, despite that rare loss, Rose is just as dangerous as she was in March, February and January.

This LSU talent is an unapologetic front-runner who attacks the lead and pushes the pace. She has run 1:59 for the half-mile distance numerous times and is one of the most naturally gifted NCAA middle distance runners of this era (and maybe ever).

Rose ran 1:59.08 (800) at this same meet last year, nearly snagging the win until Nikki Hiltz barely out-leaned her at the line. And this year, she doesn't look any less fit, leaving us to wonder how close she can get to Athing Mu's NCAA record of 1:57.73 (800).

Admittedly, that monstrous time seem ambitious, even for someone of Rose's caliber. However, running under 1:59 this weekend has to be in play for the Tiger ace. There are numerous upper-echelon pros in this field who could make this a VERY fast affair. And if Rose is willing to be aggressive in that kind of setting, then you could see her with a 1:58 (800) personal best by the end of the weekend.

The other top-ranked collegian entered in this field is Oklahoma State's Gabija Galvydyte. The Cowgirl runner put together a very solid indoor track season (which was a clear improvement from the year prior) and is seemingly primed to run something absurdly fast come Friday.

Last spring, in what turned out to be a career-defining performance, Galvydyte threw down a huge 2:00.47 (800) PR to claim silver at the NCAA Outdoor Championships. And while that mark was a clear outlier on her resume at the time, the recent consistency that we've seen from this Stillwater-based star has made that performance look more and more admissible.

During the winter months, Galvydyte contested the half-mile event six times, five of which yielded marks that were 2:02 or faster. In fact, one of those performances converted to a result that was a hair under 2:01.

In other words, Galvydyte may actually be closer to her peak all-time fitness right now than she ever has been during the regular season. And if she's in the top heat this Friday, then I wouldn't be totally surprised if she runs 2:00 for 800 meters.

However, after those two women, there is admittedly a somewhat large drop-off to the next tier of collegiate 800-meter entries on the women's side.

With a 2:02 (800) personal best, a decorated career at the Division Three level and a recent 1500-meter effort of 4:12 (which essentially matched her PR), Virginia's Esther Seeland is a really hard name to dislike. She has often fallen under the radar on a handful of occasions and at her best, she can be a tricky name to take down.

Since coming to the Division One level, Seeland hasn't necessarily run poorly, but she also hasn't been able to replicate her success over 800 meters during her time in the ACC. That, however, could very easily change this weekend, especially with Seeland posting some of her best-ever times in her last few outings.

Bradley's Julia Nielsen, who won the top 800-meter section at the Raleigh Relays via a 2:02 PR, has a ton of momentum right now. If she can get into the right section, then it's fair to ask if a 2:01 mark could be in play for the Brave veteran come Friday.

As for everyone else, Washington's Marlena Preigh, UCLA's Rose Pittman, Oregon's Ella Nelson, Boston College's Molly Hudson, Texas A&M's Bailey Goggans and Washington's Samantha Friborg are all key names to monitor.

It should be noted that Goggans has run 2:02.98 (800) this year, but Preigh is the one who is way overdue to breakthrough the 2:03 barrier this Friday.

Men's 800m: Sam Whitmarsh vs Numerous NCAA Stars

I am absolutely pumped to watch this race. When it comes to NCAA talent, the men's 800-meter field is loaded with multiple men who could be All-Americans as well as a few others who could win NCAA titles.

The focal collegiate star in this race is Texas A&M's Sam Whitmarsh, the middle distance ace who posted a jaw-dropping 800-meter PR of 1:44 a few weekends ago. He'll come into this race as the clear, but not necessarily heavy, favorite to emerge with top collegiate honors.

This is a big race for Whitmarsh. A win here (among collegians) would validate his overwhelmingly strong 1:44 PR. And if he doesn't win, then a fast enough time would effectively do the same thing. He did, after all, skip the 1:45 range entirely after not even advancing to the indoor national meet this past winter.

But while Whitmarsh may be the most fit NCAA half-miler in this field right now, you could argue that Division Two superstar Wes Ferguson, our unquestionable TSR #1 runner in our D2 rankings, is the most complete collegiate 800-meter runner you'll see on Friday.

Don't forget, Ferguson has won multiple national titles and even ran 1:45 for 800 meters at altitude last year. And if it weren't for a questionable DQ in the semi-finals at the USA Outdoor Championships, Ferguson would have been in the finals of a major national stage.

When it comes to tactical racing, Ferguson is probably the best collegian you'll find in this field, although Iowa State's Finley McLear may have something to say about that. However, finding the necessary fitness and strength to hang with what will likely be a ferocious pace is going to be a key thing to watch with Ferguson.

If this race is going to be as fast as I think it will, then Iowa State's Darius Kipyego should thrive. He has tons of raw fitness -- as shown by his pedigree, improved winter campaign and 2:18 (1k) PR -- and is fresh off of a 1:45 (800) PR from last weekend. He can realistically be the top collegian in this race if he's in a good enough position and is able to finish well.

Two weeks ago, I don't know if I would have said that about him.

Kipyego's teammate, Finley McLear, is a bit more challenging to figure out. I don't see too many scenarios where he runs poorly on Friday, but I don't know that his fitness is back at a point where he's replicating his 1:45 (800) PR.

At multiple NCAA Indoor Championships, McLear has been brilliant about his positioning as well as his in-race responses to certain moves. Tactically, he's among the best. But Friday's race will likely not be tactical. Instead, it will almost definitely be an all-out affair.

For McLear, running a time around 1:46 (800) would likely be considered a good weekend. The middle distance veteran doesn't need to return to his 1:45 (800) level of fitness by the second weekend of April. As long as he continues to slowly and steadily improve throughout the spring months, then he could be a much bigger threat on the national stage than we realize come June.

The final collegian who I would suggest keeping on your radar is Florida's star freshman from India, Parvej Khan.

Khan's leg speed and turnover is wildly impressive -- most accomplished veterans never replicate the displays of late-race quickness that this Gator rookie has shown over the last two months. And after running a huge 1:46 (800) PR to defeat Handal Roban with a massive kick, we can't help but wonder how Khan would fare in a race that could be even more crowded with 1:45 and 1:46 talents.

However, Khan is also entered in the men's 1500 meters. And given that he hasn't contested that event yet this spring, it would make sense that the Florida runner returns to his ideal distance at the biggest regular season meet of the year.

Other names to watch include Northeastern's Kerem Ayhan, New Mexico's Ethan Brouw, Oregon's Elliott Cook, UCLA's Angus Harrington, Texas' Cole Lindhorst, Indiana's Camden Marshall, Oregon's Matthew Erickson and Long Beach State's Kash Powell.

PREDICTIONS: 2024 Bryan Clay Invite (collegians only)

*Denotes that a collegian is also entered in another individual event. In these predictions, TSR is assuming that each runner is contesting an event fresh (i.e. not doubling back).

Women’s 5000 Meters

1. Hilda Olemomoi (Alabama) - 15:13

2. Gracelyn Larkin (Northern Arizona) - 15:31

3. Sydney Thorvaldson (Arkansas) - 15:32

4. Juliet Cherubet (Texas Tech)* - 15:37

5. Lucy Jenks (Stanford)* - 15:39

Men’s 5000 Meters

1. Habtom Samuel (New Mexico)* - 13:08

2. Brian Musau (Oklahoma State)* - 13:21

3. Wil Smith (Gonzaga)* - 13:23

4. Victor Kiprop (Alabama) - 13:24

5. Patrick Kiprop (Arkansas)* - 13:30

Women’s 800 Meters

1. Michaela Rose (LSU)* - 1:58

2. Gabija Galvydyte (Oklahoma State)* - 2:00

3. Julia Nielsen (Bradley)* - 2:01

4. Esther Seeland (Virginia)* - 2:02

5. Marlena Preigh (Washington)* - 2:03

Men’s 800 Meters

1. Sam Whitmarsh (Texas A&M) - 1:45

2. Wes Ferguson (Nebraska-Kearney) - 1:45

3. Darius Kipyego (Iowa State) - 1:46

4. Finley McLear (Iowa State) - 1:46

5. Camden Marshall (Indiana)* - 1:47