2024 Bryan Clay Invitational Preview & Predictions (Part One): Parker Valby's 10k Debut, Alex Maier vs Aaron Las Heras, Karinauskaite's First Steeple This Season & A Possible NCAA Championship Preview

It's here, ladies and gentlemen! The single-best regular season meet of the outdoor track season (for distance runners, that is) has finally arrived. I am, of course, talking about the Bryan Clay Invitational, hosted by Azusa Pacific.

The California-hosted meet has often been responsible for some of the fastest times ever seen by collegiate distance runners on the outdoor oval. In fact, this is the same meet where Alabama's Eliud Kipsang ran the 1500-meter collegiate record of 3:33.74 a few years back!

And given some of the entries that have already been published, there's at least some chance that we see another record fall this Thursday, Friday or Saturday.

The meet starts on Thursday and will initially feature the men's and women's 10k as well as the men's and women's steeplechase as the primary events. Naturally, those are the events that we'll focus on in today's preview.

Oh, and if you want to see our predictions for these races, click here.

Alright, let's begin...

Women's 10k: Just How Fast Can Parker Valby Go?

One of the biggest headlines of the week going into the Bryan Clay Invitational will be one key entry listed in the women's 10,000 meters. I am, of course, talking about Parker Valby, the Florida phenom who broke the NCAA 5k record twice this past winter.

The reason why this entry is so exciting (outside of the obvious fact that we'll get to see her race for the first time this season) is because Valby has never contested a 10k before! In some respects, that's pretty surprising as almost all aerobic-centric distance stars usually attack this distance earlier in their careers than she is about to.

Of course, Valby's injury history is well documented. And when it comes to staying healthy, avoiding the grind of racing in (and training for) a 10k certainly preserves one's legs.

But over the last year, the Gator ace has proven that she is not only at 100% health, but also in the best shape of her life. And frankly, even that description seems like we're underselling her. More accurately, Valby's fitness and talent has risen to a level that is so far beyond what our expectations were for her that she has reached an all-time elite tier.

Trying to figure out what time Valby will run in her first-ever 10k -- assuming she actually does toe the line for this race -- is admittedly challenging. We've never seen her run a 10k before and on paper, she should be able to get a fairly comfortable win.

Valby's aggressive front-running approach and care-free racing style has allowed her to thrive in solo time trial efforts. And on Thursday, that's likely going to be the exact setting that she finds herself in.

Running historically elite marks by herself isn't new for Valby. She did, after all, run under 15:00 (5k) twice this past winter and record an overall 5k PR of 14:52. But what does that 5k time translate to? The Florida standout will almost certainly crack the 32-minute barrier, but how far under that mark can/will she go?

If we had to guess, Valby is probably fit enough to become the new NCAA record holder over 10,000 meters, although that isn't necessarily to say that she definitively will break the record. The current collegiate 10k record stands at 31:18 from Iowa State's Lisa Koll in 2010.

There is, however, a catch: At the time of writing, Valby was listed in the "Accepted Entries" list for both the 5000 meters and the 10,000 meters. And although her named remained in the entries for the 10k, I can't help but wonder if her 10k entry is just a filler and she's actually going to contest the 5k instead.

UPDATE: Parker Valby is no longer listed in the 5k entries and remains in the 10k entries.

Of course, there are women not named Parker Valby who are also listed in these entries. Most notably, Alabama's Brenda Tuwei stands out.

You may remember Tuwei's name from the winter months when we reported that the Kenya native was joining the Crimson Tide in 2024. And while her indoor track season was solid, it's her prior experience over the 10k distance that leaves us incredibly excited about what she could do come Thursday.

Prior to coming to Tuscaloosa, Tuwei had posted a 10k PR of 31:20 in a road race. And if you think that performance was just a fluke, then we'd invite you to review her four separate 10k road races where she ran under 32 minutes each time!

It's admittedly hard to know how Alabama's latest aerobic-centric recruit will fare in a 10k on the track. Her last time contesting this event on the oval was back in 2022 when she ran a shoulder shrugging 10k mark of 34:23.

While there is no denying that Tuwei has made massive improvements since then, you would also expect a top-tier 10k runner to produce indoor 5k times under the 15:50 barrier. That, however, was not something that she was able to accomplish this past winter.

In other words, your predictions about Tuwei's performance for this Thursday will be just as good as mine -- and that's why she's such an interesting name to monitor.

Much like Parker Valby, another well-known collegian is making her 10k debut at the Bryan Clay Invitational. In this case, it's BYU's Jenna Hutchins, the elite high school recruit who, after a rocky start to her NCAA career, has seemingly begun to pick up momentum.

Inconsistency has been a challenge for Hutchins in prior seasons. Even so, Hutchins did prove this past winter that her fitness has reached a new tier and that she's at least reliable enough to show up and produce a top time at a nationally competitive meet like this.

I'm happy that Coach Diljeet Taylor is willing to have Hutchins attack the 10k distance despite being on the younger side of first-time runners in this event. BYU's still-rising star is very clearly a strength-based, aerobic-centric athlete. In theory, that means that she'll fare well in the 10k if her inexperience doesn't limit her.

West Texas A&M's Florance Uwajeneza is also in this race. And just like Jenna Hutchins, she is a true long distance-focused runner who has some of the best aerobic strength in all of Division Two. Her current 10k PR sits at 32:49, she just ran a 5k PR of 16:00, she upset Brianna Robles for the D2 indoor 5k national title this past winter and on paper, this Buffalo star is at her best when the racing distances gets longer.

Based on all of that information, I don't envision many scenarios where Uwajeneza struggles on Thursday. This field should be perfectly balanced for an athlete like herself. I could very easily see her cracking 32:40 (10k) in this race.

There are a large handful of names who could also crack the top-five spots among collegians on Thursday night.

UMass Lowell's Kenzie Doyle stunned the nation when she ran 15:27 (5k) back in December, but we haven't seen her reach that level since then. North Carolina's Fatima Alanis is due for a new 10k PR, but will that allow her to be competitive with a small handful of fringe All-American contenders? MTSU's Purity Sanga is also in this field, although her resume over the last year hasn't necessarily jumped off the page.

Be sure to also keep an eye on Miami (FL)'s Daphnee Lavassas, North Carolina's Ava Dobson and Texas Tech's Anastacia Chepkorir.

Men's 10k: Aaron Las Heras vs Alex Maier vs Dennis Kipruto

I am VERY excited for this race, maybe even more so than the women's 10k race.

That's because we could see multiple men, on a good day, cracking the 28-minute barrier for 10,000 meters. I wouldn't be surprised if there were multiple eventual 10k All-Americans in this field and things only get more entertaining when you realize that there is a massive wild card runner in this field.

Let's first start with Northern Arizona's Aaron Las Heras. If there were betting odds for who would be the top collegian in this race, then I imagine that it would be Las Heras. The Wake Forest-turned-NAU graduate student was beyond excellent this past winter, running incredible times of 7:37 (3k) and 13:16 (5k).

While Las Heras was likely looking for a bit more success at this year's indoor national meet, you could make the argument that he's still the best out of any other runner in this field when it comes to time trial settings. However, more importantly, Las Heras is one of those runners who seemingly gets better when he moves up in distance. Don't forget, this guy was a stud on the grass this past fall and has run 27:52 for 10,000 meters on the road before.

As long as this race is intentionally fast and kept to a time under 28:10 (10k), then I see this Lumberjack star coming out on top (among collegians) more likely than not.

However, one of the very few men who could spoil a Las Heras victory is Alex Maier, the Oklahoma State veteran whose overall career resume arguably surpasses Las Heras.

The Cowboys' focal star for the last few years was the runner-up finisher in the men's 10k at the 2022 NCAA Outdoor Championships. He owns a 13:11 (5k) PR and has also run 28:12 for this distance as well. But what really leaves us so high on Maier is the fact that he earned two All-American honors at the indoor national meet last month, even earning bronze over 3000 meters.

When Maier is at his best, he may be just as dangerous as Las Heras is at his peak. Maier can often be a very patient runner who knows when to be conservative and when to match certain moves. In fact, he'll be one of those men who suddenly emerges near the top pack almost out of nowhere, leaving you to ask, "Wait, how did Maier get there?"

And if you need proof of that, then I would go check out the men's 3000-meter race from the 2024 NCAA Indoor Championships.

And yet, despite how talented and dynamic I think both Aaron Las Heras and Alex Maier are, there is one runner who will have most of my attention on Thursday.

Enter Dennis Kipruto. You may remember Dennis Kipruto's name from the winter months when we reported that the Crimson Tide star had added the international standout to their roster. But Kipruto's reported times are only for one race -- and it's not an event that is contested at the NCAA Championships.

Believe it or not, this Kenyan distance star has been rumored to run 60:51 for the half-marathon. In fact, that insanely fast mark is even listed on his bio page on Alabama's official athletics website.

A half-marathon PR under 61 minutes is flat-out absurd. In theory, that kind of time should translate to an elite 10k time as well. If I had to guess, I would say at least under 27:40 and maybe even under 27:30 as well.

Of course, it's important to keep things in perspective.

We basically know nothing about Kipruto. We don't know how he has performed in any other events, we don't know how he responds in certain race settings, we don't know if he'll be able to effectively translate his talent to a substantially shorter race and we couldn't even find an official result online for that aforementioned 60:51 half-marathon PR.

Even so, Thursday could be the grand introduction of the NCAA's newest long distance star...because the collegiate scene didn't already have enough of those, right?

North Carolina's Alex Phillip and Charlotte's Nickolas Scudder are interesting names in a field like this. The former boasts a 10k PR of 28:31 while the latter has run 28:28 for the same distance. Both of those men, Phillip in particular, are due to improve upon those times, but by how much is the question.

This kind of field should favor the strengths and fitness levels of both men -- it'll be fast, but not overly competitive -- and they should be somewhat familiar with the racing tendencies of their opponents.

Other key names to keep an eye on are Notre Dame's Ethan Coleman (who is due for a breakout race) and the Oregon duo of Izaiah Steury and Devin Hart (the latter of whom already ran 29:09 for 10,000 meters at the Stanford Invite and is running the second heat).

Women's 3k Steeple: Greta Karinauskaite vs Elise Thorner

Going into last year's outdoor national meet, California Baptist's Greta Karinauskaite looked like the somewhat clear, although not overwhelming, national title favorite in the steeplechase. The Lancer distance ace had run 9:26 over the barriers and water pits at the West Regional Championships prior to her season finale and the rest of the women in the NCAA steeplechase field had been good, but not necessarily amazing.

Karinauskaite would go on to settle for silver on the national stage, but her aggressive front-running approach at least positioned her to be in contention for the national title. And now, with Olivia Markezich looking stronger than ever, this CBU ace likely wants to make a major statement in her first steeplechase effort of the spring months.

This field will feature some great names including BYU's Lexy Halladay-Lowry who will be redshirting this season (confirmed by TSR). Having her and Florida steeplechaser Elise Thorner in tomorrow's race should keep things honest and produce a winning time that, at the very least, goes under 9:45.

But if any (attached) collegian is going to beat Karinauskaite, then it's going to be Thorner. And if she's going to win, then she'll simply need to rely on her fitness rather than any fancy tactics to take down her CBU rival.

Of course, that's far easier said than done.

Thorner, however, is plenty accomplished in her own right. She owns an excellent steeplechase time of 9:32 and she's been a two-time All-American in the event as well. Following a strong winter campaign, the Lobo-turned-Gator runner should be able to keep things competitive with Karinauskiate in the latter portions of this race.

However, after those two, the performances that we could see become far less predictable.

Adams State star Gracie Hyde has been outstanding this year at the D2 level and her fitness makes her one of the best overall runners in this field. She has a 9:57 steeplechase PR and that mark should be improved upon tomorrow, but...by how much?

Boston College's Emma Tavella has been great since coming over from UCLA, especially when you reflect on her 2023 cross country season. However, the former Bruin was already showing signs of being nationally competitive last spring when she ran 9:52 in the steeplechase.

Given that she ended her indoor track season with three different PRs in three different events in her last three races, everything about Tavella's resume suggests that she'll produce a sub-10:00 mark come Thursday.

At their best, Yasmin Austridge (Colorado State), Lona Latema (Kansas) and Calli Doan (Liberty) could all realistically contend for a 3rd place finish (among collegians) tomorrow night. However with each of those women recently producing a small handful of underwhelming results (relative to expectations), it's hard to find arguments to place them above some of the women who we've already mentioned in our predictions.

Men's 3k Steeple: An NCAA Championship Preview?

When you look back at last year's outdoor national meet results in the men's steeplechase, you'll find that half of the All-Americans in that field are gone. However, of the four returning All-Americans, three of them will be racing against each other on Thursday night.

We need to start our analysis with Victor Kibiego, the former UTEP runner who transferred to Texas A&M this past winter following a coaching change. The newest Aggie ace was outstanding last spring, running 8:26 over the barriers and water pits while simultaneously establishing himself as a national title favorite for the spring of 2024.

However, after a very solid cross country campaign, Kibiego underwhelmed on the indoor oval, especially in the postseason. And in his first steeplechase race of the season (at the Stanford Invite), Kibiego was never in contention with the top collegians. Instead, he faltered a bit, running a still-respectable time of 8:45.

In terms of proven talent and upside, there isn't any men's NCAA steeplechaser who has shown that they could match the caliber of an 8:26 mark over the barriers -- at least not right now. Even so, Thursday's race will be very telling when it comes to Kibiego's status as a national title contender this season.

If you asked me who the "safest" name to pick in this field was, I'd probably say Eastern Kentucky's Abdelhakim Abouzouhir. The Colonel ace holds an 8:35 steeplechase PR and just ran 8:37 in his season opener to secure a key win at the Stanford Invite.

This guy rarely has a poor race. He's one of the most consistent men in this field, he's willing to be an aggressive front-runner and he now has a valuable year of experience under his belt. I see very little downside in Abouzouhir and based on a few recent results, I would argue that he's primed to earn a new PR come Thursday.

However, Oklahoma State's Victor Shitsama may pose as quite the challenge for this EKU counterpart. The Cowboy veteran was awesome last spring, consistently improving his steeplechase PR all the way down to a time of 8:30. In fact, he never ran slower than 8:40 throughout the entirety of last spring and he capped his season with a 7th place All-American honor!

Shitsama has never been a great runner on the indoor oval, so it's hard to put much stock in the performances that he produced in the winter. Even so, after last year's masterful steeplechase campaign, we cannot at all count out this Oklahoma State runner as a possible contender for the win (among collegians) tomorrow evening.

Montana State's Rob McManus is one of those men who is a completely different (and better) runner when he's jumping over barriers. And frankly, the same could be said about his fellow teammate, Levi Taylor.

Of those two, the former has more momentum after starting his season with an 8:37 (steeple) mark and a narrow runner-up finish to Abdelhakim Abouzouhir two weeks ago. However, Taylor wasn't too far behind McManus with a mark of 8:39 and generally speaking, he's simply more experienced.

The Montana State men often have a knack for working incredibly well together in this event. Expect at least one of these men to play a major role in this race on Thursday afternoon.

Notre Dame's Tom Seitzer has been a fan favorite at The Stride Report for the last few years. On paper, he is one of the most complete steeplechasers that the NCAA has to offer. He's usually pretty consistent, highly experienced, tactically sound, is willing to challenge top names and holds a nationally competitive steeplechase PR of 8:34.

When looking at his resume as a whole, there is a lot to like about this Fighting Irish veteran. However, after an unexciting season opener at the Raleigh Relays a few weeks back, we're not totally sure what to expect from Seitzer who will be facing even more challenging competition this weekend.

While those five men are certainly the focal names (collegiately) in this race, other guys like Notre Dame's CJ Singleton, Utah Valley's Joel Mendez, Iowa State's Gable Sieperda and Northwest Missouri's Reece Smith are all absolutely capable of cracking the top-five of our NCAA predictions tomorrow.

PREDICTIONS: 2024 Bryan Clay Invite (collegians only)

*Denotes that a collegian is also entered in another individual event. In these predictions, TSR is assuming that each runner is contesting an event fresh (i.e. not doubling back).

Women’s 10,000 Meters

1. Parker Valby (Florida) - 31:21

2. Brenda Tuwei (Alabama) - 31:58

3. Jenna Hutchins (BYU) - 32:27

4. Florance Uwajeneza (West Texas A&M) - 32:38

5. Kenzie Doyle (UMass Lowell) - 32:39

Men’s 10,000 Meters

1. Aaron Las Heras (Northern Arizona)* - 27:52

2. Dennis Kipruto (Alabama) - 27:55

3. Alex Maier (Oklahoma State) - 28:01

4. Alex Phillip (North Carolina) - 28:12

5. Nickolas Scudder (Charlotte) - 28:18

Women’s 3000-Meter Steeplechase

1. Greta Karinauskaite (California Baptist) - 9:41

2. Elise Thorner (Florida)* - 9:46

3. Emma Tavella (Boston College)* - 9:54

4. Gracie Hyde (Adams State)* - 9:55

5. Yasmin Austridge (Colorado State)* - 10:06

Men’s 3000-Meter Steeplechase

1. Abdelhakim Abouzouhir (Eastern Kentucky) - 8:34

2. Victor Shitsama (Oklahoma State) - 8:35

3. Rob McManus (Montana State)* - 8:37

4. Levi Taylor (Montana State)* - 8:37

5. Victor Kibiego (Texas A&M)* - 8:41