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2023 Raleigh Relays Preview (Day Two)
- TSR Collaboration
- Mar 23, 2023
- 21 min read
Written by Maura Beattie, Gavin Struve & Scotty Loughlin
Edits & additional commentary by Garrett Zatlin
Women's 1500 Meters
What percent chance would you give to the top contenders in this field to emerge as the top collegiate? How many women will run under 4:15 for 1500 meters on Friday?
Maura:
Maia Ramsden (Harvard) - 30%
Samantha Bush (NC State) - 25%
Amaris Tyynismaa (NC State) - 25%
Margot Appleton (Virginia) - 10%
Shannon Flockhart (Providence) - 5%
Field - 5%
The 4:15 barrier will only be broken by three women this weekend. I have Harvard’s Maia Ramsden as well as NC State’s Samantha Bush and Amaris Tyynismaa ultimately breaking through that mark.
Ramsden was very consistent this past winter and had established herself as one of the best milers in the NCAA. The Harvard ace dropped her mile PR to a mark of 4:30, a time likely indicative of a faster 1500 meter than her current 4:12 best.
The Wolfpack duo of Bush and Tyynismaa will be interesting to watch this weekend. Bush had somewhat of an up-and-down indoor track season, but when the All-American talent is on, a strong finishing kick could get her to a sub-4:15 result.
And then there’s Tyynismaa, the recent transfer via Alabama. When the former Crimson Tide star shifted schools mid-year, it caught many by surprise. Since joining Coach Laurie Henes and the Wolfpack, Tyynismaa has only raced a handful of times, eventually posting an unattached 4:32 mile PR at Boston University, a one-second PR.
The junior talent has a 4:09 (1500) personal best and was an All-American in that event, so sub-4:15 isn’t out of the question. In fact, given how she performed on the indoor oval, it's almost expected that she'll run faster than that.
Scotty:
Maia Ramsden (Harvard) - 25%
Margot Appleton (Virginia) - 25%
Megan Marvin (Furman) - 20%
Samantha Bush (NC State) - 15%
Field - 15%
I’ll raise Maura’s total by one and go with four women breaking 4:15. I agree with the consistency from both Ramsden and Bush leading us to expect quality performances from them even this early in the season. Both athletes possess outstanding range, but may be at their best over 1500 meters on the outdoor oval.
One runner who I am much higher on than Maura is Virginia’s Margot Appleton. After finishing 4th in the mile at the NCAA Indoor Championships a few weeks ago, the Cavalier ace has more momentum than anyone else in this field and should be considered a legitimate threat to break 4:15 as well as contend for the overall win.
I also feel like Furman’s Megan Marvin is flying way under the radar as a returning national meet qualifier at this distance. I’ll take a chance at her turning some heads and kicking off her outdoor campaign with a 4:14 PR over 1500 meters.
Gavin:
Maia Ramsden (Harvard) - 35%
Margot Appleton (Virginia) - 20%
Amaris Tyynismaa (NC State) - 15%
Shannon Flockhart (Providence) - 10%
Samantha Bush (NC State) - 10%
Field - 10%
I’m bullish on the potential of this field, but I am also inclined to offer a conservative estimate in the early infancy of this outdoor track season. It's still March after all. As such, I’ll predict three women, the first three names I have listed, breaking the 4:15 barrier.
I’ll be most interested to see how Amaris Tyynismaa fares in her first race officially donning an NC State singlet. She arguably has the most firepower of any woman in this field, but perhaps I’m just giving credence to her cross country credentials and experience over Ramsden who has arguably the higher upside.
Tyynismaa, a three-time All-American and a borderline superstar, has joined the best women’s NCAA distance program of the past half-decade. It wouldn’t be a disappointment if she doesn’t come away with the overall win, but I think some are discounting her contender status in this race simply due to her recent absence (which was no fault of her own).
With burgeoning talents like Ramsden and Margot Appleton, as well as Tyynismaa’s teammate Samantha Bush and a proven 1500 meter specialist like Shannon Flockhart, there are plenty of variables in this race for a few head-turning times on Friday.
Across all heats, which woman is the most underrated? Which woman has the most to prove? Which woman is due for a fast time?
Maura: The most underrated woman in this field is Cincinnati’s Rylee Penn.
The Bearcat's development this past indoor track season went unnoticed by most, but I kept my eye on Penn’s results. After the junior ran a 4:34 mile mark, which was a 30-second PR, how fast can Penn run over 1500 meters? Her current 1500 PR is 4:33, but her ceiling has only gotten higher...a lot higher.
Shannon Flockhart of Providence has the most to prove.
The Friar standout was stellar last spring, running a 4:10 (1500) mark and earning an All-American honor at this distance. We expected Flockhart to have a big indoor track season, but things just didn’t materialize that way.
The sophomore was only able to manage a 4:39 mile time, three seconds off of her PR and well off of an indoor national meet qualifying spot. She will need to put that winter campaign behind her and prove that her 2022 outdoor track season wasn’t a fluke.
Rider’s Teagan Schein-Becker is due for a fast time after she threw down a massive time of 2:02 over 800 meters at the tail-end of the indoor track season.
It’s admittedly a shame that the junior ran her 2:02 half-mile PR after the NCAA Indoor Championship qualifying window closed, but the Bronco star is on the upswing and has all of the potential in the world to improve upon her still-respectable 4:18 (1500) PR.
Scotty: Minnesota’s Anastasia Korzenowski, who can be found in heat 13 of 15, is very underrated given her 2:05 (800) speed, her respectable 4:20 (1500) PR and her overall experience. The Golden Gopher veteran could very well win her heat and potentially set a new personal best if all goes according to plan.
I’m looking at Virginia’s Esther Seeland as the runner with the most to prove in this field. Seeland has made a seamless transition from Division Three to Division One, but has yet to toe the line for an individual track event other than the 800 meters since joining the Cavaliers.
The 800 meter veteran will be experiencing trial by fire in the fastest 1500 meter heat at Raleigh. But if things go well, then could make a statement to the rest of the NCAA that she has lethal range as a complete middle distance runner.
Michigan State standout Katie Osika is due for a fast time. And if we know anything about runners in the Osika family, it’s that they know how to effectively navigate the 1500 meters.
Osika had an excellent fall campaign on the grass and spent most of the recent indoor track season specializing in the 3k while also taking care of DMR duties. Now, she’s primed to return to what is arguably her best event on the track and could end up winning her heat on Friday while recording a top-10 time across all sections.
Gavin: Another Michigan State harrier, Lauren Freeland is a name that has gone under the radar for someone who has already run under the aforementioned 4:15 (1500) barrier.
Of course, Freeland achieved that breakout result at last spring’s East Regional Championships where she was two spots out from snagging a spot to the 2022 outdoor national meet. But since then, the rising Spartan talent is coming off of her best-ever cross country campaign as well as a respectable-enough indoor track season.
In the top heat of the 1500 meters this weekend, Freeland will have an opportunity to put her name on the map far earlier this spring than she was able to last year.
We then come to Providence's Shannon Flockhart who has been solid, but has mostly flown under the national radar since her spectacular metric mile campaign last year. During the 2022 outdoor track season, we saw her run 4:10 over 1500 meters and earn her first All-American honor.
Flockhart peaked late last season, better than almost any other 1500 meter specialist in the NCAA that year. But fair or not, she’ll be expected to find herself with the top group of contenders in Raleigh.
As for Esther Seeland, Virginia’s newest middle distance star, she could be due for a fast time with an opportunity to race against the best in the country. The serial Division Three national champion has a chance to prove herself in the company of women who are simply more proven (and faster) over 1500 meters than Seeland is.
That, however, could ultimately propel the former Messiah runner to a big-time PR.
Women's 3000 Meter Steeplechase
Is it safe to say that Duke's Emily Cole is the favorite to win this race? If not, then who is? If so, then who is her biggest threat for gold?
Maura: I think this race is going to come down to two women: Emily Cole (Duke) and Anna Sophia Keller (Notre Dame). Cole may have the faster steeplechase PR with her 9:48 mark, but Keller is within reasonable striking distance based on her 9:56 personal best.
The Duke Blue Devil had a breakout season last spring when she finished 2nd in the steeplechase at the ACC Outdoor Championships and qualified for the outdoor national meet. Cole also picked up PRs of 4:42 (mile) and 9:37 (3k) during the most recent indoor track season, valuable momentum that she could capitalize on this Friday.
But is a win right off the bat possible for Cole?
Keller of Notre Dame hasn’t contested the steeplechase since the 2021 outdoor track season, the same year where she finished 4th in the event at Raleigh Relays. The long-time veteran not only has experience racing the event, but she has actually beaten Cole before and could very well do it again this weekend.
Scotty: This is definitely Emily Cole’s race to lose. As Maura mentioned, Cole has the fastest steeplechase PR in the field. Not only that, but she’ll have a very short travel from Durham to Raleigh to open up her senior outdoor track season.
NC State's Sarah LaTour is another steeplechase standout who I think is very underrated, but she is also entered in the 1500 meters. And if I had to guess, she will likely be scratching one of the two events...or enduring the most painful double that track and field has to offer (which seems unlikely).
With that in mind, I’ll defer to Maura’s pick and say that Keller has the next-best resume, but she’ll have to shake off the rust of nearly two years without contesting the steeplechase.
Gavin: Maura and Scotty are right that Emily Cole is a relatively clear favorite in this race.
The ACC Outdoor Championship runner-up in this event last spring has a good chance at earning her first collegiate steeplechase win with a short trip down Tobacco Road. Still, the Duke ace finished 11th overall at this meet last year and an outright victory may constitute a major leap in early-season fitness that we haven’t seen concrete proof of...yet.
As Maura and Scotty said above, Keller will be Cole's biggest threat by virtue of having previously recorded a high finish at this meet in the steeplechase (4th in 2021). She has also fared better than Cole throughout most of this academic year -- finishing 14th at ACC XC Championships in October and posting a 4:37 (1600) mark in February -- despite not racing all of last academic year.
After going from "great" to "elite" (within the D2 ranks) this past winter, what are your expectations for Grand Valley State's Natalie Graber? Will her or her teammate Kayce Rypma finish higher?
Maura: Natalie Graber is on a whole new level this year.
Based on the way she’s running -- specifically when referring to her 9:09 (3k) PR en route to a 3rd place finish at the D2 indoor national meet -- I’m left wondering just how fast she can go in the steeplechase. Yes, it's true, she will have to face the barriers and water pits on Friday, but a sub-10:00 result is plenty possible for Graber.
As for Kayce Rypma, she is plenty talented in her own right and deserves some respect. Even if Graber does post an all-time top-10 result (for Division Two), I would say that Rypma still has the ability to finish within 10 to 15 seconds of her teammate this Friday.
Scotty: My expectations for Natalie Graber are sky-high.
The bigger the stage is, the better she performs. The Laker superstar raised her stock considerably at the D2 NCAA Indoor Championships when she finished 3rd place over 3000 meters and ran a blistering-fast anchor leg in the DMR (via a 4:39 split) to bring a national title to Allendale, Michigan.
Graber is about to make her current steeplechase PR of 10:40 ancient history. It isn’t out of the question to expect her to shed more than 30 seconds off from her current personal best. With respect to Kayce Rypma -- who is a proven All-American in this event -- I’ll confidently take Graber to finish higher in this season opener.
Gavin: Natalie Graber no doubt seems destined to tear a heavy chunk off of her 10:40 steeplechase PR and could even find herself in the three-figure range (sub-10:00) if she can cling to the aforementioned names. After all, she helped Grand Valley State to a DMR national title just a couple of weeks ago (splitting 4:39 on the anchor leg) while also running 4:44 (mile) and 9:09 (3000) this past winter.
Still, we shouldn’t forget that Rypma has the better credentials than her fellow Laker in this event with a 10:23 PR and All-American honors. I think these teammates could finish closer to each other than many people expect. Even so, I’d give the edge to Graber and her ever-growing upside.
Women's 5k
If we were to score the entire women's 5k field like a cross country meet and only count the first three runners, which team would you expect to come out on top in this race? NC State, Notre Dame, Georgetown or other?
Maura: As much as I want to say NC State, I’m hesitant to pick the Wolfpack because I’m not too sure what Marlee Starliper can do following her injury recovery.
Starliper is obviously talented given her incredible 15:36 (5k) PR, but there's too many questions regarding her health. If Starliper falters, then Sydney Seymour, Samantha Bush and Savannah Shaw might not have enough in the tank to offset the difference from other top-tier distance groups.
So after looking at it that way, I’m picking the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
The 3k runner-up at the 2023 NCAA Indoor Championships, Olivia Markezich, is the leading lady for her team. And although there’s no mark to gauge her 5k time off of since this will be her event debut, it's clear that Markezich has the speed, endurance and experience that could land her a win.
Picking two more women to backup Markezich is also pretty easy. Katie Thronson and Siona Chisholm are two safe bets, each of whom are building great momentum as of late.
Thronson has a 15:54 (5k) PR, but since transferring to Notre Dame, she has seen an improvement in her overall fitness. The senior talent has experience racing at the Raleigh Relays, finishing 15th in this event last spring, but with some top teammates in the field, Thronson had the potential to crack the top-10 and inch near that 15:40 barrier.
And then there’s Siona Chisholm. In her first year competing in the NCAA, the underclassman standout impressed during the 2022 cross country season and with her 9:04 (3k) PR on the indoor oval this past winter. Chisholm may have a modest 16:19 (5k) PR from June of 2022, but since then, Coach Matt Sparks has likely transformed her into a sub-15:45 athlete.
Scotty: I can understand Maura’s hesitation with NC State given Starliper’s question marks after injury, but I believe in home track magic and I can envision a scenario where she comes back and finishes top-five in this loaded field.
Therefore, I’m all-in on the Wolfpack women and expect their top-three talents to finish head and shoulders above the other contenders in this 5k field.
Notre Dame should be a lock as the second-best distance group in this field, but banking on Olivia Markezich to finish ahead of every NC State and Georgetown athlete would be asking a lot for her 5k debut despite how incredibly talented she is.
Georgetown is bringing their top runners which is encouraging to see, but in my eyes, they’re at their best on the grass and won’t have the top-end firepower that the Wolfpack or Fighting Irish have on a track over 5000 meters.
Gavin: I’ll have to default to picking the ‘Pack.
Seymour, Bush and Starliper aren’t NC State’s biggest, or even most consistent, stars. Still, each of those women have run in the 15:35 (5k) range which puts them among the class of this field.
Notre Dame, with perhaps the most consistent star in this field, Olivia Markezich, and Seymour’s former Tennessee teammate-turned-ACC competitor, Katie Thronson, will pose as legitimate threats. But Laurie Henes’ group will have home track advantage which has to count for something in the first outdoor meet of the season for most of these athletes.
Which woman will benefit the most on Friday by moving up in distance this weekend?
Maura: Olivia Markezich of Notre Dame will be making her 5k track debut this weekend. In my mind, it’s crazy to think that with her 8:50 (3k) and cross country success that the junior hasn’t given the 5k a try yet.
The Fighting Irish runner is coming off of two very successful seasons through this still-evolving academic year. After her 8th place finish at the 2022 NCAA XC Championships, Markezich capitalized on her momentum and concluded her winter campaign with a 2nd place finish and 3rd place finish in the 3k and the DMR, respectively, at the NCAA Indoor Championships.
Markezich will be in a quick field, but she has beaten all of these women at some point this year. Her overall placement isn’t a worry of mine for the Notre Dame star, but I’m more interested in how fast she can go.
Scotty: It has to be Olivia Markezich. I agree with Maura that it’s almost shocking that such an accomplished cross country runner has never toed the line for a 5k race on the indoor or outdoor ovals.
Although she’ll be new to the event, the Irish star has proven herself to be one of the most tactically-sound distance runners in the 3k during indoor track and in the steeplechase during outdoor track. Combining her reliability with her cross country success makes Markezich’s prospects of being a 5k star as close to a sure thing as you could possibly have.
Gavin: Lipscomb’s Lydia Miller has long-fashioned herself as more of a middle distance runner if her racing history is any indication. But the Bison ace is coming off of her best cross country season, featuring a top-100 finish at the NCAA XC Championships, and she ran personal bests from the mile up to the 5000 meters this winter.
The latter mark, 16:12, is arguably more impressive than her 4:44 mile PR that she ran. This won’t be Miller’s first 5k race, but the event constitutes a move up in distance compared to her nominal events in the past.
Which woman in the second-fastest heat is the most likely to run under 15:45 (5k) on Friday?
Maura: Georgetown’s Maggie Donahue is surprisingly in this heat even though she has 15:43 (5k) PR, a time she ran in early December. The Hoya ace is a stellar long distance runner and has proven herself multiple times against some of the nation’s best on both the track and on the cross country course.
Donahue hasn’t competed since that December 5k race, but she has run sub-15:50 on three separate occasions. And given the right race this weekend, a win and sub-15:45 mark is very possible. Sure, it's not going to be easy given her long layoff from racing, but you can’t count out this Georgetown distance talent.
Scotty: Building on my Marlee Starliper case from an earlier question, I’ll go with NC State’s Savannah Shaw. The Wolfpack veteran has proven that she’s more than capable of running under 15:45 for 5000 meters, but it’ll be a matter of where her fitness is at as she just recently began racing again during the middle of the indoor track season.
Once again, I think the home track magic will benefit this elder NC State runner and we’ll see her (at least approaching) the level of dominance that she displayed last spring when she dropped a 15:33 (5k) PR at the East Regional Championships.
Gavin: Scotty’s been shrewd today, and it would be a fool’s errand to stray from him on this pick. The best bet among this second heat is Savannah Shaw reverting to her past form and showing herself as the class of this group.
Sure, she’s completed just one 5000 meter race on the oval since running her PR, an underwhelming 16:02 mark at last June’s NCAA Outdoor Championships, but this is someone who ran 15:33 the meet prior to that and she likely knows that she's capable of winning her 5k heat on her home track. Plus, she doesn’t even need to run within 10 seconds of her prior 5k PR to hit 15:45.
Men's 10k
How many collegiate men do you think will run under 29:00 for 10,000 meters at the Raleigh Relays on Friday? For perspective, 19 men ran under that barrier at this meet last year...
Maura: It’s really hard to make a prediction here.
I feel like this year's men's 10k field (at the Raleigh Relays) isn’t nearly as strong as last year’s field even with a only few heavy-hitters in search of an early-season regional qualifying time. That being said, I’m going to go with 11 men dipping under 29:00 (10k).
Scotty: Wow, since when does everybody and their brother run sub-29? Remember when no one used to be able to do that?
After scanning through the names, the conservative predictor within me came up with nine runners breaking 29:00 for 10,000 meters. Of course, since the NCAA manages to always get faster on an annual basis, I’ll arbitrarily raise my prediction to 12 names.
Maura is right, the star power in this 10k field is not at the same caliber of the 2022 Raleigh Relays, but this meet has a way of presenting new stars. I have a feeling we’re in for a few breakthrough performances in the 25-lapper.
Gavin: While there is a drop-off after 10 or so names, I’ll go bold and say 20 men, well over half the field, break 29:00 over 10,000 meters in Raleigh on Friday night. That would surpass last year’s total, aligning with the rising tide of the once-ridiculous figures becoming commonplace in this sport.
The top men at the front of this race, and the general familiarity of regional and conference foes in this field, should result in a bevy of fast times. This will, after all, be one of the preeminent 10,000 meter races of this season
Who are the five men who will benefit the most from moving up in distance to the 10k? Briefly explain why for each name.
Maura:
Graham Blanks (Harvard): The Crimson runner will be making his 10k debut (on a track) this weekend. However, with recent personal bests of 7:44 (3k) and 13:18 (5k), it seems like a forgone conclusion that Blanks is going to thrive on Friday night. His 28:58 (10k) PR on the grass indicates a much faster time is anticipated on the outdoor oval.
Kirami Yego (South Alabama): South Alabama’s Kirami Yego doesn’t always race at the premier meets, but that doesn’t mean that he should be counted out. After finishing 37th at the NCAA XC Championships this past fall, Yego ran 13:38 (5k) at the Boston University Season Opener, a 22-second PR. He has a 29:20 (10k) personal best currently, but after this past indoor track season, it’s safe to say that Yego has a 10k improvement well under 29 minutes coming his way.
Nickolas Scudder (Charlotte): This Charlotte veteran is the top returner from the men's 10k at the 2022 Raleigh Relays, finishing 12th in a PR of 28:32. Scudder had a respectable indoor track season this past winter, highlighted by an outstanding 13:33 (5k) mark. If he can build off of that result in this field and continue improving, then he may have a shot at the win.
Haftu Strintzos (Villanova): The longer the race, the better it is for Haftu Strintzos. The Villanova veteran had a tough indoor track season, struggling to break 14:00 over 5000 meters. However, it’s a new season and the 10k is a familiar event for Strintzos. His 28:34 (10k) points to his success in the event and if he taps into his experience, then things could go his way this weekend.
Marcelo Rocha (Providence): It’s been a hot minute since Marcelo Rocha was nearing the top of a results page, but the Friar veteran will be racing her first 10k since 2021. Rocha has an event best of 28:37 and after recording a 13:39 (5k) PR this past winter, things seem to be trending in the right direction for him.
Scotty:
Tom Brady (Michigan): Tom Brady is a long distance specialist, so we may be somewhat dodging the spirit of this question. Even so, Gavin and I are certainly in agreement that he is at his best when the racing distance gets longer. The Wolverine star took a major step up in his most recent cross country campaign and could be due to set a new 10k PR under 28:30.
CarLee Stimpfel (Michigan State): I absolutely love this race choice for CarLee Stimpfel. Last year at the Raleigh Relays, Stimpfel was a member of the Saginaw Valley State Cardinals (D2) and set a 10k PR of 29:08 while competing in a field of primarily Division One athletes. There’s no doubt in my mind that he’ll smash the 29:00 barrier this time around as a Spartan.
Kevin Berry (Notre Dame): Last season, Kevin Berry set a 10k PR of 28:55 during his time with the Princeton Tigers in what was admittedly not a particularly strong field. The Raleigh Relays, however, should present a much better opportunity for the now-Irish distance talent to flex his strength and set a new personal best.
Nate Kawalec (Tennessee): Nate Kawalec refined his speed during his fist indoor track season under Sean Carlson with a new mile PR of 4:03. Now, he’ll have a chance to build on the success that he experienced in cross country to contest a strength-based event. He should be primed for a strong event debut under 29:00 (10k), especially when you remember that this used to be his home track and that he owns a 13:39 (5k) personal best.
Rohann Asfaw (Virginia): Virginia’s Rohann Asfaw has been a workhorse for the Cavaliers for a number of years. He’s arguably been at his best on the grass which leads me to believe the 10,000 meters is the perfect event for him. He’s already proven to be formidable in this distance as evidenced by his 28:53 (10k) PR and this field should allow to better that mark.
Gavin:
Tom Brady (Michigan): I’m not positive that this pick qualifies as a "step up" in distance since Tom Brady has already run relatively comfortably under 29:00 for 10,000 meters. But Brady's individual NCAA Championship appearance came in the 3k last winter and he nearly matched his personal best in that event this past season while running a 13:36 (5k) PR in February. He’ll be a dark horse to win this race.
Milo Greder (Cincinnati): Since transferring to Cincy, the Nebraska state 1600 meter record holder has reeled off a number of personal bests on the track. He leaned toward the middle distance events during his time at Iowa State, but he was was a consistent cross country scorer for multiple top-10 Cyclone squads (on the national stage). He also ran 7:56 (3k) and 13:53 (5k) in recent months. He won’t come close to Aaron Bienenfeld’s 10k school record, but Greder could be a part of the likely-large sub-29:00 contingent this weekend.
Cameron Ponder (Furman): Cameron Ponder has never even run a 5k as an NCAA athlete, so perhaps this choice is more colored by my intrigue in his performance than anything. But teh Furman ace has some of the best raw talent in this field and has had some success on the cross country course. Plus, there doesn’t appear to be an aerobic-based phenom in this field who could blow this Paladin out of the water. Either way, Ponder has one of the wider ranges of outcomes in the top heat.
John Tatter (North Carolina): John Tatter feels like he could find a real fit in the 10,000 meters after a quietly-strong 2022 cross country season and a mostly-quiet winter campaign. He contested both this event and the 5k, last spring but leaned toward the latter where he ran a strong 13:40 PR. He has the talent to chop a good 30 seconds off of his 29:22 (10k) personal best this Friday.
Baldvin Magnusson (Eastern Michigan): With some of the more underrated range among the nation’s distance running spectrum, Baldvin Magnusson’s sweet spot is from the mile up to the 5000 meters -- but this won’t be a new distance for the Iceland native. He’s had some solid cross country success and won the 10k title at last year's MAC Outdoor Championships. While Magnusson has more experience than Ponder, it feels like he has a similarly-wide range of outcomes. Regardless, his firepower and adaptability in comparison to his competitors gives him a strong shot at a competitive result in this 25-lapper.
Can you convincingly say that there is a sole favorite to emerge as the top collegiate in this 10k field? If so, who is it? If not, who are the names you could see winning this race?
Maura: Nope. Just by looking at the entries, I don’t see a clear favorite. There are, however, four men who I could see making a legitimate run for the win.
I’ve already mentioned the potential for Graham Blanks of Harvard. This guy placed 6th at the cross country national meet this past fall, running a strong 10k time on a challenging course. So, what are his odds with a flat 10k effort on Friday night?
Nickolas Scudder is the top returner from last year’s race and has experience of showing up when it matters in the 10k. Just look at his berth to the 2021 outdoor national meet in said event as evidence.
Also, give me Joaquin Martinez De Pinillos of Wake Forest. The Demon Deacon junior has a 10k PR of 29:07 and although he didn’t have the flashiest indoor track season, his ceiling is high when it comes to this event.
Charleston Southern’s Micah Gilpatric could catch a few people by surprise this weekend. Even though he’s not from a powerhouse program, Gilpatric has made a name for himself in the 10k. Last year, at this very meet, the Buccaneer runner impressed with a 28:52 PR. That mark put him amongst the top-15 on Friday and he can only go up from there.
Now, it’s important to remember that the 10k is a long event. A lot could go right and a lot could go wrong over the span of nearly half an hour. Any of the men entered could come away with the win. However, these are just the four guys who I’m putting more faith in.
Scotty: I disagree.
Not necessarily with Maura’s analysis on Harvard’s Graham Blanks, but with her not giving him the nod as a clear favorite in this 10k field. The Crimson star broke out at the 2021 NCAA Fall XC Championships with a surprise All-American finish and has continued to build upon his resume each and every season.
Blanks' recent string of personal bests (detailed by Maura in a previous question) are head and shoulders above his competition, and throughout his career, he’s been able to match teammate Acer Iverson who holds a personal best of 28:23 (10k).
I have no reason to bet against Blanks being able to translate his fitness to the full 10,000 meters on the outdoor track and come away with a huge mark near or under 28:00.
Gavin: This race is wide-open with about eight different men who have a decent shot at earning the outright win, by my count.
Like Maura and Scotty hinted, Graham Blanks is the favorite if there is one, but it’s hard to count on someone who will be contesting his first 10k race ever on the track, even if he was a top-10 cross country All-American over this distance.
While Blanks has the highest ceiling in this field, veterans like Tom Brady, Haftu Strintzos, Marcelo Rocha and Joaquin Martinez de Pinillos have a high floor as they’ve already experienced success in this event.
And don’t count out South Alabama’s Kirami Yego! He broke out this fall, ran 13:38 for 5000 meters this past winter and was at his best in the 10k last spring.
FINAL PREDICTIONS
*Predictions via Garrett Zatlin
*Assumes all runners will contest the race(s) that they are entered in
*Predictions only include attached collegiates only
Women's 1500 Meters
Amaris Tyynismaa (NC State) - 4:11
Maia Ramsden (Harvard) - 4:12
Margot Appleton (Virginia) - 4:14
Sam Bush (NC State) - 4:15
Shannon Flockhart (Providence) - 4:15
Women's 3k Steeplechase
Emily Cole (Duke) - 9:50
Anna Sophia Keller (Notre Dame) - 9:51
Angelina Ellis (Butler) - 9:57
Natalie Graber (Grand Valley State) - 9:59
Aziza Chigatayeva (Binghamton) - 10:03
Women's 5000 Meters
Olivia Markezich (Notre Dame) - 15:38
Sam Bush (NC State) - 15:41
Grace Jensen (Georgetown) - 15:43
Katie Thronson (Notre Dame) - 15:46
Sydney Seymour (NC State) - 15:46
Men's 10,000 Meters
Graham Blanks (Harvard) - 28:09
Nickolas Scudder (Charlotte) - 28:17
Baldvin Magnusson (Eastern Michigan) - 28:21
Tom Brady (Michigan) - 28:25
Kirami Yego (South Alabama) - 28:30
